scholarly journals Amplification of obliquity forcing through mean-annual and seasonal atmospheric feedbacks

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 515-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.-Y. Lee ◽  
C. J. Poulsen
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Spectral Power ◽  
Spectral Characteristics ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Low Cloud ◽  
Winter Insolation ◽  
Insolation Forcing

Abstract. Pleistocene benthic δ18O records exhibit strong spectral power at ~41 kyr, indicating that global ice volume has been modulated by Earth's axial tilt. This feature, and weak spectral power in the precessional band, has been attributed to the influence of obliquity on mean-annual and seasonal insolation gradients at high latitudes. In this study, we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to quantify changes in continental snowfall associated with mean-annual and seasonal insolation forcing due to a change in obliquity. Our model results indicate that insolation changes associated with a decrease in obliquity amplify continental snowfall in two ways: (1) An increase in high-latitude winter insolation is enhanced through a low-cloud feedback, resulting in colder air temperatures and increased snow precipitation. (2) An increase in the summer insolation gradient enhances summer eddy activity, increasing vapor transport to high-latitude regions. In our experiments, a decrease in obliquity leads to an annual snowfall increase of 25.0 cm; just over one-half of this response (14.1 cm) is attributed to seasonal changes in insolation. Our results indicate that the role of insolation gradients is important in amplifying the relatively weak insolation forcing due to a change in obliquity. Nonetheless, the total snowfall response to obliquity is similar to that due to a shift in Earth's precession, suggesting that obliquity forcing alone can not account for the spectral characteristics of the ice-volume record.

scholarly journals Amplification of obliquity forcing through mean annual and seasonal atmospheric feedbacks

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 205-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.-Y. Lee ◽  
C. J. Poulsen
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Spectral Power ◽  
Spectral Characteristics ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Global Ice Volume ◽  
Atmosphere General Circulation Model ◽  
Snow Precipitation ◽  
Insolation Forcing

Abstract. Pleistocene benthic δ18O records exhibit strong spectral power at ~41 kyr, indicating that global ice volume has been modulated by Earth's axial tilt. This feature, and weak spectral power in the precessional band, has been attributed to the influence of obliquity on mean annual and seasonal insolation gradients at high latitudes. In this study, we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to quantify changes in continental snowfall associated with mean annual and seasonal insolation forcing due to a change in obliquity. Our model results indicate that insolation changes associated with a decrease in obliquity amplify continental snowfall in three ways: (1) Local reductions in air temperature enhance precipitation as snowfall. (2) An intensification of the winter meridional insolation gradient strengthens zonal circulation (e.g. the Aleutian low), promoting greater vapor transport from ocean to land and snow precipitation. (3) An increase in the summer meridional insolation gradient enhances summer eddy activity, increasing vapor transport to high-latitude regions. In our experiments, a decrease in obliquity leads to an annual snowfall increase of 25.0 cm; just over one-half of this response (14.1 cm) is attributed to seasonal changes in insolation. Our results indicate that the role of insolation gradients is important in amplifying the relatively weak insolation forcing due to a change in obliquity. Nonetheless, the total snowfall response to obliquity is similar to that due to a shift in Earth's precession, suggesting that obliquity forcing alone can not account for the spectral characteristics of the ice-volume record.

Modelling high-latitude explosive eruptions and their atmospheric and environmental impacts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herman Fuglestvedt ◽  
Zhihong Zhuo ◽  
Michael Sigl ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Michael Mills ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Explosive Eruptions ◽  
Sulphate Deposition

<p>Large explosive volcanic eruptions inject sulphur into the stratosphere where it is converted to sulphur dioxide and sulphate aerosols. Due to atmospheric circulation patterns, aerosols from high-latitude eruptions typically remain concentrated in the hemisphere in which they are injected. Eruptions in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere could thus lead to a stronger hemispheric radiative forcing and surface climate response than tropical eruptions, a claim that is supported by a previous study based on proxy records and the coupled aerosol-general circulation model MAECHAM5-HAM. Additionally, the subsequent surface deposition of volcanic sulphate is potentially harmful to humans and ecosystems, and an improved understanding of the deposition over polar ice sheets can contribute to better reconstructions of historical volcanic forcing. On this basis, we model Icelandic explosive eruptions in a pre-industrial atmosphere, taking both volcanic sulphur and halogen loading into account. We use the fully coupled Earth system model CESM2 with the atmospheric component WACCM6, which extends to the lower thermosphere and has prognostic stratospheric aerosols and full chemistry. In order to study the volcanic impacts on the atmosphere, environment, and sulphate deposition, we vary eruption parameters such as sulphur and halogen loading, and injection altitude and season. The modelled volcanic sulphate deposition is compared to the deposition in ice cores following comparable historical eruptions. Furthermore, we evaluate the potential environmental impacts of sulphate deposition. To study inter-model differences, we also compare the CESM2-WACCM6 simulations to similar Icelandic eruption experiments simulated with MAECHAM5-HAM. </p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of Southern Ocean cloud in the HadGEM3 general circulation model and MERRA-2 reanalysis using ship-based observations

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 6607-6630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Kuma ◽  
Adrian J. McDonald ◽  
Olaf Morgenstern ◽  
Simon P. Alexander ◽  
John J. Cassano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Cloud Albedo ◽  
Low Cloud

Abstract. Southern Ocean (SO) shortwave (SW) radiation biases are a common problem in contemporary general circulation models (GCMs), with most models exhibiting a tendency to absorb too much incoming SW radiation. These biases have been attributed to deficiencies in the representation of clouds during the austral summer months, either due to cloud cover or cloud albedo being too low. The problem has been the focus of many studies, most of which utilised satellite datasets for model evaluation. We use multi-year ship-based observations and the CERES spaceborne radiation budget measurements to contrast cloud representation and SW radiation in the atmospheric component Global Atmosphere (GA) version 7.1 of the HadGEM3 GCM and the MERRA-2 reanalysis. We find that the prevailing bias is negative in GA7.1 and positive in MERRA-2. GA7.1 performs better than MERRA-2 in terms of absolute SW bias. Significant errors of up to 21 W m−2 (GA7.1) and 39 W m−2 (MERRA-2) are present in both models in the austral summer. Using ship-based ceilometer observations, we find low cloud below 2 km to be predominant in the Ross Sea and the Indian Ocean sectors of the SO. Utilising a novel surface lidar simulator developed for this study, derived from an existing Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) – active remote sensing simulator (ACTSIM) spaceborne lidar simulator, we find that GA7.1 and MERRA-2 both underestimate low cloud and fog occurrence relative to the ship observations on average by 4 %–9 % (GA7.1) and 18 % (MERRA-2). Based on radiosonde observations, we also find the low cloud to be strongly linked to boundary layer atmospheric stability and the sea surface temperature. GA7.1 and MERRA-2 do not represent the observed relationship between boundary layer stability and clouds well. We find that MERRA-2 has a much greater proportion of cloud liquid water in the SO in austral summer than GA7.1, a likely key contributor to the difference in the SW radiation bias. Our results suggest that subgrid-scale processes (cloud and boundary layer parameterisations) are responsible for the bias and that in GA7.1 a major part of the SW radiation bias can be explained by cloud cover underestimation, relative to underestimation of cloud albedo.

scholarly journals Lower-Tropospheric Mixing as a Constraint on Cloud Feedback in a Multiparameter Multiphysics Ensemble

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (17) ◽  
pp. 6259-6275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youichi Kamae ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Tomoo Ogura ◽  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Cloud Feedback ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Large Member ◽  
Large Spread ◽  
Low Cloud ◽  
Equatorial Ocean ◽  
Structural Uncertainties ◽  
Emergent Constraint

Abstract Factors and possible constraints to extremely large spread of effective climate sensitivity (ECS) ranging about 2.1–10.4 K are examined by using a large-member ensemble of quadrupling CO2 experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The ensemble, called the multiparameter multiphysics ensemble (MPMPE), consists of both parametric and structural uncertainties in parameterizations of cloud, cumulus convection, and turbulence based on two different versions of AGCM. The sum of the low- and middle-cloud shortwave feedback explains most of the ECS spread among the MPMPE members. For about half of the perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) in the MPMPE, variation in lower-tropospheric mixing intensity (LTMI) corresponds well with the ECS variation, whereas it does not for the other half. In the latter PPEs, large spread in optically thick middle-cloud feedback over the equatorial ocean substantially affects the ECS, disrupting the LTMI–ECS relationship. Although observed LTMI can constrain uncertainty in the low-cloud feedback, total uncertainty of the ECS among the MPMPE cannot solely be explained by the LTMI, suggesting a limitation of single emergent constraint for the ECS.

scholarly journals Simulating the Role of Subtropical Stratocumulus Clouds in Driving Pacific Climate Variability

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (13) ◽  
pp. 5119-5131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katinka Bellomo ◽  
Amy Clement ◽  
Thorsten Mauritsen ◽  
Gaby Rädel ◽  
Bjorn Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Cloud Feedback ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Southeast Pacific ◽  
Low Cloud ◽  
Pacific Climate Variability

This study examines the influence of the northeast and southeast Pacific subtropical stratocumulus cloud regions on the modes of Pacific climate variability simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM6) coupled to a slab ocean. The sensitivity of cloud liquid water to underlying SST is changed in the radiation module of the atmospheric model to increase the strength of positive low-cloud feedback in the two regions. Enhanced low-cloud feedback increases the persistence and variance of the leading modes of climate variability at decadal and longer time scales. Additional integrations show that the southeast Pacific influences climate variability in the equatorial ENSO region, whereas the effects of the northeast Pacific remain confined to the North Pacific. The results herein suggest that a positive feedback among SST, cloud cover, and large-scale atmospheric circulation can explain decadal climate variability in the Pacific Ocean. In particular, cloud feedbacks over the subtropical stratocumulus regions set the time scale of climate variability. A proper representation of low-level cloud feedbacks in the subtropical stratocumulus regions could therefore improve the simulation of Pacific climate variability.

scholarly journals Competing influences of the ocean, atmosphere and solid earth on transient Miocene Antarctic ice sheet variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennert Bastiaan Stap ◽  
Constantijn J. Berends ◽  
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg ◽  
Roderik S. W. van de Wal ◽  
Edward G. W. Gasson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Bedrock Topography ◽  
Co2 Levels ◽  
Transient Simulations

Abstract. Benthic δ18O levels vary strongly during the warmer-than-modern early- and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), suggesting a dynamic Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). So far, however, realistic simulations of the Miocene AIS have been limited to equilibrium states under different CO2 levels and orbital settings. Earlier transient simulations lacked ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions, and used a present-day rather than Miocene Antarctic bedrock topography. Here, we quantify the effect of ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions, running IMAU-ICE using climate forcing from Miocene simulations by the general circulation model GENESIS. Utilising a recently developed matrix interpolation method enables us to interpolate the climate forcing based on CO2 levels (between 280 and 840 ppm) as well as ice sheet configurations (between no ice and a large ice sheet). We furthermore implement recent reconstructions of Miocene Antarctic bedrock topography. We find that the positive albedo-temperature feedback, partly compensated by the negative ice-volume-precipitation feedback, increases hysteresis in the relation between CO2 and ice volume (V). Together, these ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions decrease the amplitude of AIS variability caused by 40-kyr forcing CO2 cycles by 21 % in transient simulations. Thereby, they also diminish the contribution of AIS variability to benthic δ18O fluctuations. Furthermore, we show that under equal atmospheric and oceanic forcing, the amplitude of 40-kyr transient AIS variability becomes 10 % smaller during the early- and mid-Miocene, due to the evolving bedrock topography. Lastly, we quantify the influence of ice shelf formation around the Antarctic margins, by comparing simulations with Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) basal melt conditions, to ones in which ice shelf growth is prevented. Ice shelf formation increases hysteresis in the CO2-V relation, and amplifies 40-kyr AIS variability by 19 % using LGM basal melt rates, and by 5 % in our reference setting.

Impacts of projected climate change on the thermodynamics of a shallow and a deep lake in Finland: model simulations and Bayesian uncertainty analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 40 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 234-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuomo M. Saloranta ◽  
Martin Forsius ◽  
Marko Järvinen ◽  
Lauri Arvola
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Deep Lake ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Parameter Values

A lake model (MyLake) has been used to simulate the impacts of the projected future (2071–2100) climate on the thermodynamic properties of a shallow and a deep lake in Finland. The model has been calibrated using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method. The model results show, among others, that the largest change in water temperature in a projected future climate occurs in April–May when a 4.6–7.6°C increase in epilimnion and 2.7–4.4°C increase in whole-lake monthly mean temperature occurs compared to the climate of 1961–1990. This corresponds to a large decrease in the probability of ice cover in March–April. In winter and early spring a negative correlation was obtained between lake water and air temperatures in a projected future climate due to the thermal buffering feature of the lake ice and snow cover. The uncertainties connected to the choice of the general circulation model and the boundary condition forcing for the regional atmospheric climate model were often significantly larger than the uncertainties connected to MyLake model parameter values.

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