Coral reconstructed Mid-Holocene seasonality in the southwestern Caribbean

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Skiba ◽  
Ulrich Struck ◽  
Lars Reuning ◽  
Dieter Garbe-Schönberg ◽  
Norbert Frank ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Diagenetic Alteration ◽  
Seasonal Time Scale ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions ◽  
Thin Section Analysis ◽  
Geochemical Analyses ◽  
Fossil Coral

<p>Seasonality is a dominant factor in the Earth’s climate system, but proxy reconstructions on this time scale are sparse. Corals provide an excellent archive to reconstruct environmental conditions on seasonal time scale using geochemical proxies. Here, we use subfossil (~6.2-7.1 ka BP) <em>Siderastrea siderea</em> and <em>Pseudodiploria labyrinthiformis</em> corals from a pristine Mid-Holocene reef, located in Panamá, southwestern Caribbean. Mid-Holocene insolation seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere was stronger than at present. We investigate the resulting changes in SST and hydrological seasonality using coral Sr/Ca, δ<sup>18</sup>O and δ<sup>13</sup>C. To evaluate, if the coral heads can be utilised for geochemical analyses, they have been screened for diagenetic alteration (2D-XRD, thin section analysis). Obtained modern coral Sr/Ca-SST based annual cycle corresponds well with <em>in situ</em> measured SST. Fossil coral Sr/Ca-SST based cycles exceed the modern one by up to 50%. Fossil coral δ<sup>18</sup>O seasonal amplitudes are higher than the modern one by up to 30% and show a reduction in the mean gradient between wet and dry period, attributable to the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Increased SST and δ<sup>18</sup>O seasonality are consistent with model simulated SSTs (Kiel Climate Model) and model-based calculated pseudocoral δ<sup>18</sup>O, but the model underestimates the seasonality increase in the Mid-Holocene.</p>

Potential predictability of Southwest US rainfall : role of tropical and high-latitude variability

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-45
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Subseasonal Variability ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract This study explores the potential predictability of Southwest US (SWUS) precipitation for the November-March season in a set of numerical experiments performed with the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model. In addition to the prescription of observed sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration, observed variability from the MERRA-2 reanalysis is prescribed in the tropics and/or the Arctic through nudging of wind and temperature. These experiments reveal how a perfect prediction of tropical and/or Arctic variability in the model would impact the prediction of seasonal rainfall over the SWUS, at various time scales. Imposing tropical variability improves the representation of the observed North Pacific atmospheric circulation, and the associated SWUS seasonal precipitation. This is also the case at the subseasonal time scale due to the inclusion of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the model. When additional nudging is applied in the Arctic, the model skill improves even further, suggesting that improving seasonal predictions in high latitudes may also benefit prediction of SWUS precipitation. An interesting finding of our study is that subseasonal variability represents a source of noise (i.e., limited predictability) for the seasonal time scale. This is because when prescribed in the model, subseasonal variability, mostly the MJO, weakens the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection with SWUS precipitation. Such knowledge may benefit S2S and seasonal prediction as it shows that depending on the amount of subseasonal activity in the tropics on a given year, better skill may be achieved in predicting subseasonal rather than seasonal rainfall anomalies, and conversely.

scholarly journals The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1125-1156 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Stier ◽  
J. Feichter ◽  
S. Kinne ◽  
S. Kloster ◽  
E. Vignati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Normal Modes ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Extensive Evaluation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Year 2000

Abstract. The aerosol-climate modelling system ECHAM5-HAM is introduced. It is based on a flexible microphysical approach and, as the number of externally imposed parameters is minimised, allows the application in a wide range of climate regimes. ECHAM5-HAM predicts the evolution of an ensemble of microphysically interacting internally- and externally-mixed aerosol populations as well as their size-distribution and composition. The size-distribution is represented by a superposition of log-normal modes. In the current setup, the major global aerosol compounds sulfate (SU), black carbon (BC), particulate organic matter (POM), sea salt (SS), and mineral dust (DU) are included. The simulated global annual mean aerosol burdens (lifetimes) for the year 2000 are for SU: 0.80 Tg(S) (3.9 days), for BC: 0.11 Tg (5.4 days), for POM: 0.99 Tg (5.4 days), for SS: 10.5 Tg (0.8 days), and for DU: 8.28 Tg (4.6 days). An extensive evaluation with in-situ and remote sensing measurements underscores that the model results are generally in good agreement with observations of the global aerosol system. The simulated global annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) is with 0.14 in excellent agreement with an estimate derived from AERONET measurements (0.14) and a composite derived from MODIS-MISR satellite retrievals (0.16). Regionally, the deviations are not negligible. However, the main patterns of AOD attributable to anthropogenic activity are reproduced.

scholarly journals Constraining the temperature history of the past millennium using early instrumental observations

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1653-1685 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Brohan ◽  
R. Allan ◽  
E. Freeman ◽  
D. Wheeler ◽  
C. Wilkinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
East India Company ◽  
Temperature History ◽  
British Library ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Abstract. The current assessment that twentieth-century global temperature change is unusual in the context of the last thousand years relies on estimates of temperature changes from natural proxies (tree-rings, ice-cores etc.) and climate model simulations. Confidence in such estimates is limited by difficulties in calibrating the proxies and systematic differences between proxy reconstructions and model simulations. As the difference between the estimates extends into the relatively recent period of the early nineteenth century it is possible to compare them with a reliable instrumental estimate of the temperature change over that period, provided that enough early thermometer observations, covering a wide enough expanse of the world, can be collected. One organisation which systematically made observations and collected the results was the English East-India Company (EEIC), and their archives have been preserved in the British Library. Inspection of those archives revealed 900 log-books of EEIC ships containing daily instrumental measurements of temperature and pressure, and subjective estimates of wind speed and direction, from voyages across the Atlantic and Indian Oceans between 1789 and 1834. Those records have been extracted and digitised, providing 273 000 new weather records offering an unprecedentedly detailed view of the weather and climate of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The new thermometer observations demonstrate that the large-scale temperature response to the Tambora eruption and the 1809 eruption was modest (perhaps 0.5 °C). This provides a powerful out-of-sample validation for the proxy reconstructions – supporting their use for longer-term climate reconstructions. However, some of the climate model simulations in the CMIP5 ensemble show much larger volcanic effects than this – such simulations are unlikely to be accurate in this respect.

scholarly journals Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 593-634 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Box ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
J. C. Stroeve ◽  
M. Tedesco ◽  
D. K. Hall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Water Runoff ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Ablation Area ◽  
Regional Climate Model Output ◽  
Surface Melt

Abstract. Greenland ice sheet mass loss has accelerated in the past decade responding to combined glacier discharge and surface melt water runoff increases. During summer, absorbed solar energy, modulated at the surface primarily by albedo, is the dominant factor governing surface melt variability in the ablation area. Using satellite observations of albedo and melt extent with calibrated regional climate model output, we determine the spatial dependence and quantitative impact of the ice sheet albedo feedback in twelve summer periods beginning in 2000. We find that while the albedo feedback is negative over 70 % of the ice sheet, concentrated in the accumulation area above 1500 m, positive feedback prevailing over the ablation area accounts for more than half of the overall increase in melting. Over the ablation area, year 2010 and 2011 absorbed solar energy was more than twice as large as in years 2000–2004. Anomalous anticyclonic circulation, associated with a persistent summer North Atlantic Oscillation extreme since 2007 enabled three amplifying mechanisms to maximize the albedo feedback: (1) increased warm (south) air advection along the western ice sheet increased surface sensible heating that in turn enhanced snow grain metamorphic rates, further reducing albedo; (2) increased surface downward solar irradiance, leading to more surface heating and further albedo reduction; and (3) reduced snowfall rates sustained low albedo, maximizing surface solar heating, progressively lowering albedo over multiple years. The summer net radiation for the high elevation accumulation area approached positive values during this period.

scholarly journals Residual circulation trajectories and transit times into the extratropical lowermost stratosphere

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 16837-16860 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Birner ◽  
H. Bönisch
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Residual Circulation ◽  
Deep Circulation ◽  
Deep Branch ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Transit Times ◽  
Part Time

Abstract. Transport into the extratropical lowermost stratosphere (LMS) can be divided into a slow part (time-scale of several months to years) associated with the global-scale stratospheric residual circulation and a fast part (time-scale of days to a few months) associated with (mostly quasi-horizontal) mixing (i.e. two-way irreversible transport, including stratosphere-troposphere exchange). The stratospheric residual circulation can be considered to consist of two branches: a deep branch more strongly associated with planetary waves breaking in the middle to upper stratosphere, and a shallow branch more strongly associated with synoptic-scale waves breaking in the subtropical lower stratosphere. In this study the contribution due to the stratospheric residual circulation alone to transport into the LMS is quantified using residual circulation trajectories, i.e. trajectories driven by the (time-dependent) residual mean meridional and vertical velocities. This contribution represents the advective part of the overall transport into the LMS and can be viewed as providing a background onto which the effect of mixing has to be added. Residual mean velocities are obtained from a comprehensive chemistry-climate model as well as from reanalysis data. Transit times of air traveling from the tropical tropopause to the LMS along the residual circulation streamfunction are evaluated and compared to recent mean age of air estimates. A clear time-scale separation with much smaller transit times into the mid-latitudinal LMS than into polar LMS is found that is indicative of a clear separation of the shallow from the deep branch of the residual circulation. This separation between the shallow and the deep circulation branch is further manifested in a clear distinction in the aspect ratio of the vertical to meridional extent of the trajectories as well as the integrated mass flux along the residual circulation trajectories. The residual transit time distribution reproduces qualitatively the observed seasonal cycle of youngest air in the extratropical LMS in fall and oldest air in spring.

The prevalence of meteoric-sulphuric particles within the stratospheric aerosol layer

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Mann ◽  
James Brooke ◽  
Kamalika Sengupta ◽  
Lauren Marshall ◽  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Light Extinction ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Particle Layer

<p>The widespread presence of meteoric smoke particles (MSPs) within a distinct class of stratospheric aerosol particles has become clear from in-situ measurements in the Arctic, Antarctic and at mid-latitudes.<br> <br>We apply an adapted version of the interactive stratosphere aerosol configuration of the composition-climate model UM-UKCA, to predict the global distribution of meteoric-sulphuric particles nucleated heterogeneously on MSP cores. We compare the UM-UKCA results to new MSP-sulphuric simulations with the European stratosphere-troposphere chemistry-aerosol modelling system IFS-CB05-BASCOE-GLOMAP.</p><p><br>The simulations show a strong seasonal cycle in meteoric-sulphuric particle abundance results from the winter-time source of MSPs transported down into the stratosphere in the polar vortex. Coagulation during downward transport sees high latitude MSP concentrations reduce from ~500 per cm3 at 40km to ~20 per cm3 at 25km, the uppermost extent of the stratospheric aerosol particle layer (the Junge layer).<br> <br>Once within the Junge layer's supersaturated environment, meteoric-sulphuric particles form readily on the MSP cores, growing to 50-70nm dry-diameter (Dp) at 20-25km. Further inter-particle coagulation between these non-volatile particles reduces their number to 1-5 per cc at 15-20km, particle sizes there larger, at Dp ~100nm.</p><p><br>The model predicts meteoric-sulphurics in high-latitude winter comprise >90% of Dp>10nm particles above 25km, reducing to ~40% at 20km, and ~10% at 15km.<br> <br>These non-volatile particle fractions are slightly less than measured from high-altitude aircraft in the lowermost Arctic stratosphere (Curtius et al., 2005; Weigel et al., 2014), and consistent with mid-latitude aircraft measurements of lower stratospheric aerosol composition (Murphy et al., 1998), total particle concentrations  also matching in-situ balloon measurements from Wyoming (Campbell and Deshler, 2014).<br> <br>The MSP-sulphuric interactions also improve agreement with SAGE-II observed stratospheric aerosol extinction in the quiescent 1998-2002 period. <br> <br>Simulations with a factor-8-elevated MSP input form more Dp>10nm meteoric-sulphurics, but the increased number sees fewer growing to Dp ~100nm, the increased MSPs reducing the stratospheric aerosol layer’s light extinction.</p>

Modelling rain heterogeneities within an urban neighbourhood

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karolin S. Ferner ◽  
K. Heinke Schlünzen ◽  
Marita Boettcher
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
In Situ Measurements ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Processes

<p>Urbanisation locally modifies the regional climate: an urban climate develops. For example, the average wind speed in cities is reduced, while the gustiness is increased. Buildings induce vertical winds, which influence the falling of rain. All these processes lead to heterogeneous patterns of rain at ground and on building surfaces. The small-scale spatial rain heterogeneities may cause discomfort for people. Moreover, non-uniform wetting of buildings affects their hydrothermal performance and durability of their facades.</p><p>Measuring rain heterogeneities between buildings is, however, nearly impossible. Building induced wind gusts negatively influence the representativeness of in-situ measurements, especially in densely urbanised areas. Weather radars are usually too coarse and, more importantly, require an unobstructed view over the domain and thus do not measure ground precipitation in urban areas. Consequently, researchers turn to numerical modelling in order to investigate small-scale precipitation heterogeneities between buildings.</p><p>In building science, numerical models are used to investigate rain heterogeneities typically focussing on single buildings and vertical facades. Only few studies were performed for more than a single building or with inclusion of atmospheric processes such as radiation or condensation. In meteorology, increasing computational power now allows the use of small-scale obstacle-resolving models resolving atmospheric processes while covering neighbourhoods.</p><p>In order to assess rain heterogeneities between buildings we extended the micro-scale and obstacle-resolving transport- and stream model MITRAS (Salim et al. 2019). The same cloud microphysics parameterisation as in its mesoscale sister model METRAS (Schlünzen et al., 2018) was applied and boundary conditions for cloud and rain water content at obstacle surfaces were introduced. MITRAS results are checked for plausibility using radar and in-situ measurements (Ferner et al., 2021). To our knowledge MITRAS is the first numerical urban climate model that includes rain and simulates corresponding processes.</p><p>Model simulations were initialised for various wind speeds and mesoscale rain rates to assess their influence on the heterogeneity of falling rain in a domain of 1.9 x 1.7 km² around Hamburg City Hall. We investigated how wind speed or mesoscale rain rate influence the precipitation patterns at ground and at roof level. Based on these results we assessed the height dependence of precipitation. First analyses show that higher buildings receive more rain on their roofs than lower buildings; the results will be presented in detail in our talk.</p><p>Ferner, K.S., Boettcher, M., Schlünzen, K.H. (2021): Modelling the heterogeneity of rain in an urban neighbourhood. Publication in preparation</p><p>Salim, M.H., Schlünzen, K.H., Grawe, D., Boettcher, M., Gierisch, A.M.U., Fock B.H. (2018): The microscale obstacle-resolving meteorological model MITRAS v2.0: model theory. Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3427–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3427-2018.</p><p>Schlünzen, K.H., Boettcher, M., Fock, B.H., Gierisch, A.M.U., Grawe, D., and Salim, M. (2018): Scientific Documentation of the Multiscale Model System M-SYS. Meteorological Institute, Universität Hamburg. MEMI Technical Report 4</p>

scholarly journals Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Bracegirdle ◽  
Florence Colleoni ◽  
Nerilie J. Abram ◽  
Nancy A. N. Bertler ◽  
Daniel A. Dixon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this.

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