Importance of Northern Hemisphere Vertical Land Motion for Geodesy and Coastal Sea Levels

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carsten Ankjær Ludwigsen ◽  
Ole Baltazar Andersen ◽  
Shfaqat Abbas Khan ◽  
Ben Marzeion
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
Vertical Land Motion

<p>Vertical Land Motion (VLM) is a composite of several earth dynamics caused by changes of earth’s surface load or tectonics. In most of the Northern Hemisphere mainly two dynamics are causing large scale vertical land motion – Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), which is the rebound from the loading of the latest glacial cycle (10-30 kyr ago) and elastic rebound from contemporary land ice changes, that happens immediately when loading is removed from the surface.</p><p>With glacial mass balance data and observations of the Greenland Ice Sheet we have created an Northern Hemisphere ice history from 1996-2015 that is used to make a model for elastic VLM caused by ice mass loss that varies in time.</p><p>It shows that, in most cases, the elastic VLM model is able to close gaps between GIA induced VLM and GNSS-measured VLM, giving confidence that the combined GIA + elastic VLM-model is a better alternative to adjust relative sea level measurements from tide-gauges (where no (reliable) GNSS-data is available) to absolute sea level than 'just' a GIA-model. In particular for Arctic Sea Level, where elastic uplifts are prominent and large coastal regions have limited in-situ data available, the VLM-model is useful for correcting Tide Gauge measurements and thereby validate satellite altimetry observed sea levels, which is challenged by sea ice in the coastal Arctic.</p><p>Furthermore, our elastic VLM-model shows, that the uplift caused by the melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) is far-reaching and even in the North Sea region or along the North American coast show uplift rates in the order of 0.4-0.7 mm/yr from 1996-2015. Interestingly, this is roughly equivalent to Greenland’s sea level contribution in the same period, thereby 'neutralizing' the melt of GIS. As GIS ice mass loss continues to accelerate, the elastic uplift will have increased importance for coastal regions and future relative sea level projections. Unfortunately, the opposite effect is true for the southern hemisphere or vice versa if Antarctic ice sheet mass loss would increase.</p>

scholarly journals Monitoring southwest Greenland’s ice sheet melt with ambient seismic noise

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. e1501538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Mordret ◽  
T. Dylan Mikesell ◽  
Christopher Harig ◽  
Bradley P. Lipovsky ◽  
Germán A. Prieto
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Seismic Noise ◽  
Seismic Velocity ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Ice Sheet Mass Balance ◽  
Velocity Changes

The Greenland ice sheet presently accounts for ~70% of global ice sheet mass loss. Because this mass loss is associated with sea-level rise at a rate of 0.7 mm/year, the development of improved monitoring techniques to observe ongoing changes in ice sheet mass balance is of paramount concern. Spaceborne mass balance techniques are commonly used; however, they are inadequate for many purposes because of their low spatial and/or temporal resolution. We demonstrate that small variations in seismic wave speed in Earth’s crust, as measured with the correlation of seismic noise, may be used to infer seasonal ice sheet mass balance. Seasonal loading and unloading of glacial mass induces strain in the crust, and these strains then result in seismic velocity changes due to poroelastic processes. Our method provides a new and independent way of monitoring (in near real time) ice sheet mass balance, yielding new constraints on ice sheet evolution and its contribution to global sea-level changes. An increased number of seismic stations in the vicinity of ice sheets will enhance our ability to create detailed space-time records of ice mass variations.

scholarly journals On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1933-1946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiel R. van den Broeke ◽  
Ellyn M. Enderlin ◽  
Ian M. Howat ◽  
Peter Kuipers Munneke ◽  
Brice P. Y. Noël ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Pore Space ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Recent Contribution ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Level Change

Abstract. We assess the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change. We use the mass budget method, which quantifies ice sheet mass balance (MB) as the difference between surface mass balance (SMB) and solid ice discharge across the grounding line (D). A comparison with independent gravity change observations from GRACE shows good agreement for the overlapping period 2002–2015, giving confidence in the partitioning of recent GrIS mass changes. The estimated 1995 value of D and the 1958–1995 average value of SMB are similar at 411 and 418 Gt yr−1, respectively, suggesting that ice flow in the mid-1990s was well adjusted to the average annual mass input, reminiscent of an ice sheet in approximate balance. Starting in the early to mid-1990s, SMB decreased while D increased, leading to quasi-persistent negative MB. About 60 % of the associated mass loss since 1991 is caused by changes in SMB and the remainder by D. The decrease in SMB is fully driven by an increase in surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, which is slightly compensated by a small ( <  3 %) increase in snowfall. The excess runoff originates from low-lying ( <  2000 m a.s.l.) parts of the ice sheet; higher up, increased refreezing prevents runoff of meltwater from occurring, at the expense of increased firn temperatures and depleted pore space. With a 1991–2015 average annual mass loss of  ∼  0.47 ± 0.23 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) and a peak contribution of 1.2 mm SLE in 2012, the GrIS has recently become a major source of global mean sea level rise.

Accelerated mass loss from Greenland ice sheet: Links to atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic

2015 ◽  
Vol 128 ◽  
pp. 61-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ki-Weon Seo ◽  
Duane E. Waliser ◽  
Choon-Ki Lee ◽  
Baijun Tian ◽  
Ted Scambos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Trends and projections in ice sheet mass balance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Shepherd ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Global Sea Level

&lt;p&gt;In recent decades, the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets have been major contributors to global sea-level rise and are expected to be so in the future. Although increases in glacier flow and surface melting have been driven by oceanic and atmospheric warming, the degree and trajectory of today&amp;#8217;s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite records of changes in polar ice sheet volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of their mass balance. &lt;strong&gt;Since the early 1990&amp;#8217;s, ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have caused global sea-levels to rise by 18.4 millimetres, on average, and there has been a sixfold increase in the volume of ice loss over time. Of this total, 41 % (7.6 millimetres) originates from Antarctica and 59 % (10.8 millimetres) is from Greenland. In this presentation, we compare our reconciled estimates of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass change to IPCC projection of sea level rise to assess the model skill in predicting changes in ice dynamics and surface mass balance. &amp;#160;&lt;/strong&gt;Cumulative ice losses from both ice sheets have been close to the IPCC&amp;#8217;s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario, which forecast an additional 170 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Probabilistic calibration of a Greenland Ice Sheet model using spatially resolved synthetic observations: toward projections of ice mass loss with uncertainties

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 1933-1943 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Chang ◽  
P. J. Applegate ◽  
M. Haran ◽  
K. Keller
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Data Model ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Model Parameters

Abstract. Computer models of ice sheet behavior are important tools for projecting future sea level rise. The simulated modern ice sheets generated by these models differ markedly as input parameters are varied. To ensure accurate ice sheet mass loss projections, these parameters must be constrained using observational data. Which model parameter combinations make sense, given observations? Our method assigns probabilities to parameter combinations based on how well the model reproduces the Greenland Ice Sheet profile. We improve on the previous state of the art by accounting for spatial information and by carefully sampling the full range of realistic parameter combinations, using statistically rigorous methods. Specifically, we estimate the joint posterior probability density function of model parameters using Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration. This method is an important step toward calibrated probabilistic projections of ice sheet contributions to sea level rise, in that it uses data–model fusion to learn about parameter values. This information can, in turn, be used to make projections while taking into account various sources of uncertainty, including parametric uncertainty, data–model discrepancy, and spatial correlation in the error structure. We demonstrate the utility of our method using a perfect model experiment, which shows that many different parameter combinations can generate similar modern ice sheet profiles. This result suggests that the large divergence of projections from different ice sheet models is partly due to parametric uncertainty. Moreover, our method enables insight into ice sheet processes represented by parameter interactions in the model.

A relative sea-level history for Arviat, Nunavut, and implications for Laurentide Ice Sheet thickness west of Hudson Bay

2014 ◽  
Vol 82 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen M. Simon ◽  
Thomas S. James ◽  
Donald L. Forbes ◽  
Alice M. Telka ◽  
Arthur S. Dyke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Tidal Range ◽  
Laurentide Ice Sheet ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Level Curve ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Crustal Uplift

AbstractThirty-six new and previously published radiocarbon dates constrain the relative sea-level history of Arviat on the west coast of Hudson Bay. As a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) following deglaciation, sea level fell rapidly from a high-stand of nearly 170 m elevation just after 8000 cal yr BP to 60 m elevation by the mid Holocene (~ 5200 cal yr BP). The rate of sea-level fall decreased in the mid and late Holocene, with sea level falling 30 m since 3000 cal yr BP. Several late Holocene sea-level measurements are interpreted to originate from the upper end of the tidal range and place tight constraints on sea level. A preliminary measurement of present-day vertical land motion obtained by repeat Global Positioning System (GPS) occupations indicates ongoing crustal uplift at Arviat of 9.3 ± 1.5 mm/yr, in close agreement with the crustal uplift rate inferred from the inferred sea-level curve. Predictions of numerical GIA models indicate that the new sea-level curve is best fit by a Laurentide Ice Sheet reconstruction with a last glacial maximum peak thickness of ~ 3.4 km. This is a 30–35% thickness reduction of the ICE-5G ice-sheet history west of Hudson Bay.

scholarly journals Simulation of the Greenland Ice sheet over two glacial cycles: Investigating a sub-ice shelf melt parameterisation and relative sea level forcing in an ice sheet-ice shelf model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah L. Bradley ◽  
Thomas J. Reerink ◽  
Roderik S. W. van de Wal ◽  
Michiel M. Helsen
Keyword(s):  
Continental Shelf ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
The North ◽  
Non Local ◽  
Continental Shelf Break

Abstract. Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and sediment cores confirm that at the Last Glacial maximum (LGM) the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) grew to a significantly larger spatial extent than seen at present, grounding into Baffin Bay and to the continental shelf break. Given this larger spatial extent and it is close proximity to the neighboring Laurentide (LIS) and Innuitian Ice sheet (IIS), it is likely these ice sheets will have had a strong non-local influence on the spatial and temporal behaviour of the GrIS. Most previous paleo ice sheet modelling simulations recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf; or utilized a simplified marine ice parametersiation and therefore did not fully include ice shelf dynamics, and or the sensitivity of the GrIS to this non-local signal from the surrounding ice sheets. In this paper, we investigated the evolution of the GrIS over the two most recent glacial-interglacial cycles (240 kyr BP to present day), using the ice sheet-ice shelf model, IMAU-ICE and investigated the influence of the LIS and IIS via an offline relative sea level (RSL) forcing generated by a GIA model. This RSL forcing controlled via changes in the water depth below the developing ice shelves, the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-ice shelf melting, which was parametrised in relation to changes in water depth. In the suite of simulations, the GrIS at the glacial maximums coalesced with the IIS to the north, expanded to the continental shelf break to the south west but remained too restricted to the north east. In terms of an ice-volume equivalent sea level contribution, at the Last Interglacial (LIG) and LGM the ice sheet added 1.46 m and −2.59 m to the budget respectively. The estimated lowering of the sea level by the Greenland contribution is considerably more (1.26 m) than most previous studies indicated whereas the contribution to the LIG high stand is lower (0.7 m). The spatial and temporal behaviour of the northern margin was highly variable in all simulations, controlled by the sub surface melt (SSM), which was dictated by the RSL forcing and the glacial history of the IIS and LIS. In contrast, the southwestern part of the ice sheet was insensitive to these forcing’s, with a uniform response in an all simulations controlled by the surface air temperature (SAT) forcing, derived from ice cores.

scholarly journals Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 5069-5094 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Aschwanden ◽  
G. Aðalgeirsdóttir ◽  
C. Khroulev
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Multiple Observations ◽  
Elevation Changes ◽  
Initial States ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract. Recent observations of the Greenland ice sheet indicate rapid mass loss at an accelerating rate with an increasing contribution to global mean sea level. Ice sheet models are used for projections of such future contributions of ice sheets to sea level, but the quality of projections is difficult to measure directly. Realistic initial states are crucial for accurate simulations. To test initial states we use hindcasting, i.e. forcing a model with known or closely-estimated inputs for past events to see how well the output matches observations. By simulating the recent past of Greenland, and comparing to observations of ice thickness, ice discharge, surface speeds, mass loss and surface elevation changes for validation, we find that the short term model response is strongly influenced by the initial state. We show that the dynamical state can be mis-represented despite a good agreement with some observations, stressing the importance of using multiple observations. Some initial states generate good agreement with measured mass time series in the hindcast period, and good agreement with present-day kinematic fields. We suggest hindcasting as a methodology for careful validation of initial states that can be done before making projections on decadal to century time-scales.

scholarly journals On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiel van den Broeke ◽  
Ellyn Enderlin ◽  
Ian Howat ◽  
Peter Kuipers Munneke ◽  
Brice Noël ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Pore Space ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Recent Contribution ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Level Change

Abstract. We assess the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change. We use the mass budget method, which quantifies ice sheet mass balance (MB) as the difference between surface mass balance (SMB) and solid ice discharge across the grounding line (D). A comparison with independent gravity change observations from GRACE shows good agreement for the overlapping period 2002–2015, giving confidence in the partitioning of recent GrIS mass changes. The estimated 1995 value of D and the 1958–1995 average value of SMB are similar at 411 and 418 Gt yr-1, respectively, suggesting that ice flow in the mid-nineties was well adjusted to the average annual mass input, reminiscent of an ice sheet in approximate balance. Starting in the early to mid-1990's, SMB decreased while D increased, leading to quasi-persistent negative MB. About 60 % of the associated mass loss since 1991 is caused by changes in SMB and the remainder by D. The decrease in SMB is fully driven by an increase in surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, which is slightly compensated by a small (< 3 %) increase in snowfall. The excess runoff originates from low-lying (< 2000 m a.s.l.) parts of the ice sheet; higher up, increased refreezing prevents runoff of meltwater to occur, at the expense of increased firn temperatures and depleted pore space. With a 1991–2015 average annual mass loss of ~ 0.47 ± 0.23 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) and a peak contribution of 1.2 mm SLE in 2012, the GrIS has recently become a major source of global mean sea level rise.

scholarly journals The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1015-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Quiquet ◽  
Christophe Dumas
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. Polar amplification will result in amplified temperature changes in the Arctic with respect to the rest of the globe, making the Greenland ice sheet particularly vulnerable to global warming. While the ice sheet has been showing an increased mass loss in the past decades, its contribution to global sea level rise in the future is of primary importance since it is at present the largest single-source contribution after the thermosteric contribution. The question of the fate of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets for the next century has recently gathered various ice sheet models in a common framework within the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (ISMIP6). While in a companion paper we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica, we present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. The contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level rise in 2100 can thus be from as low as 20 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) to as high as 160 mm SLE. Amongst the models tested in ISMIP6, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) models produce larger ice sheet retreat than their CMIP5 counterparts. Low-emission scenarios in the future drastically reduce the ice mass loss. The oceanic forcing contributes to about 10 mm SLE in 2100 in our simulations. In addition, the dynamical contribution to ice thickness change is small compared to the impact of surface mass balance. This suggests that mass loss is mostly driven by atmospheric warming and associated ablation at the ice sheet margin. With additional sensitivity experiments we also show that the spread in mass loss is only weakly affected by the choice of the ice sheet model mechanical parameters.

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