Analysis on the damage, vulnerability and correlation with temperature caused by heat waves in Jeju province(Korea), and Heatwave Impact Based Forecast and Warning Service(HIBFWS)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanghyun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Heat Illness ◽  
Environmental Vulnerability ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
The Public ◽  
Number Of Patients

<p>In Korea, severe heat waves are frequent in summer, and the number of people who affected by them increases year by year. This study analyzes the correlation between excess mortality and the daily maximum temperature(T<sub>max</sub>) in August for the last decade(2009-2018). In addition, it analyzes T<sub>max </sub>when the patients by heat illness occur. The analysis shows a positive correlation(R=0.524, P=0.02) between the number of excess mortality and T<sub>max</sub>. In terms of patients by heat waves, the patients occur variously from 26℃ to 39℃, and the maximum number of patients appears in 34~35℃. In case of the duration of T<sub>max </sub>≥ 33℃, the number of patients shows a peak at entrance of the period, and it drops after the 4th day and no patients showing after the 9th day. But, in case of T<sub>max </sub>< 33℃, the heat illness in the 4th day occurs more than any other days, and it decreases slowly. In addition, it seems that it is not enough for the public to recognize accurately and respond risks appropriately with current temperature forecasts, so the Korea Meteorological Administration provides HIBFWS which includes countermeasures along with regional risk levels for the heatwave. Also, it analyzes socio-economic-environmental vulnerability for production of the information in Jeju province.</p>

Analysis of the extreme heat events in Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 418-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hojjatollah Yazdanpanah ◽  
Josef Eitzinger ◽  
Marina Baldi
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hot Days

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the spatial and temporal variations of extreme hot days (H*) and heat wave frequencies across Iran. Design/methodology/approach The authors used daily maximum temperature (Tmax) data of 27 synoptic stations in Iran. These data were standardized using the mean and the standard deviation of each day of the year. An extreme hot day was defined when the Z score of daily maximum temperature of that day was equal or more than a given threshold fixed at 1.7, while a heat wave event was considered to occur when the Z score exceeds the threshold for at least three continuous days. According to these criteria, the annual frequency of extreme hot days and the number of heat waves were determined for all stations. Findings The trend analysis of H* shows a positive trend during the past two decades in Iran, with the maximum number of H* (110 cases) observed in 2010. A significant trend of the number of heat waves per year was also detected during 1991-2013 in all the stations. Overall, results indicate that Iran has experienced heat waves in recent years more often than its long-term average. There will be more frequent and intense hot days and heat waves across Iran until 2050, due to estimated increase of mean air temperature between 0.5-1.1 and 0.8-1.6 degree centigrade for Rcp2.6 and Rcp8.8 scenarios, respectively. Originality/value The trend analysis of hot days and heat wave frequencies is a particularly original aspect of this paper. It is very important for policy- and decision-makers especially in agriculture and health sectors of Iran to make some adaptation strategies for future frequent and intense hot days over Iran.

scholarly journals Responses of Manduca sexta larvae to heat waves

2021 ◽  
pp. jeb.236505
Author(s):  
Joel G. Kingsolver ◽  
M. Elizabeth Moore ◽  
Kate E. Augustine ◽  
Christina A. Hill
Keyword(s):  
Larval Development ◽  
Manduca Sexta ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Developmental Timing ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Experimental Heat

Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and other extreme weather events experienced by organisms. How does the number and developmental timing of heat waves affect survival, growth and development of insects? Do heat waves early in development alter performance later in development? We addressed these questions using experimental heat waves with larvae of the Tobacco Hornworm, Manduca sexta. The experiments used diurnally fluctuating temperature treatments differing in the number (0-3) and developmental timing (early, middle and/or late in larval development) of heat waves, in which a single heat wave involved three consecutive days with a daily maximum temperature of 42 °C. Survival to pupation declines with increasing number of heat waves. Multiple (but not single) heat waves significantly reduced development time and pupal mass; the best models for the data indicated that both the number and developmental timing of heat waves affected performance. In addition, heat waves earlier in development significantly reduced growth and development rates later in larval development. Our results illustrate how the frequency and developmental timing of sublethal heat waves can have important consequences for life history traits in insects.

scholarly journals A Stepwise-Clustered Simulation Approach for Projecting Future Heat Wave Over Guangdong Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiayan Ren ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Yongping Li ◽  
Xiong Zhou ◽  
Jinliang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Simulation Approach

A heat wave is an important meteorological extreme event related to global warming, but little is known about the characteristics of future heat waves in Guangdong. Therefore, a stepwise-clustered simulation approach driven by multiple global climate models (i.e., GCMs) is developed for projecting future heat waves over Guangdong under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The temporal-spatial variations of four indicators (i.e., intensity, total intensity, frequency, and the longest duration) of projected heat waves, as well as the potential changes in daily maximum temperature (i.e., Tmax) for future (i.e., 2006–2095) and historical (i.e., 1976–2005) periods, were analyzed over Guangdong. The results indicated that Guangdong would endure a notable increasing annual trend in the projected Tmax (i.e., 0.016–0.03°C per year under RCP4.5 and 0.027–0.057°C per year under RCP8.5). Evaluations of the multiple GCMs and their ensemble suggested that the developed approach performed well, and the model ensemble was superior to any single GCM in capturing the features of heat waves. The spatial patterns and interannual trends displayed that Guangdong would undergo serious heat waves in the future. The variations of intensity, total intensity, frequency, and the longest duration of heat wave are likely to exceed 5.4°C per event, 24°C, 25 days, and 4 days in the 2080s under RCP8.5, respectively. Higher variation of those would concentrate in eastern and southwestern Guangdong. It also presented that severe heat waves with stronger intensity, higher frequency, and longer duration would have significant increasing tendencies over all Guangdong, which are expected to increase at a rate of 0.14, 0.83, and 0.21% per year under RCP8.5, respectively. Over 60% of Guangdong would suffer the moderate variation of heat waves to the end of this century under RCP8.5. The findings can provide decision makers with useful information to help mitigate the potential impacts of heat waves on pivotal regions as well as ecosystems that are sensitive to extreme temperature.

Seasonal analysis of warm extreme events in Serbia from 1949 to 2017

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivana Tosic ◽  
Suzana Putniković ◽  
Milica Tošić
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Seasonal Analysis ◽  
Novi Sad

<p>Worldwide studies revealed a general increase in frequency and severity of warm extreme temperature events. In this study, extreme temperature events including Heat waves (HWs) are examined. Extreme indices are calculated based on daily maximum temperature (Tx). The following definitions are employed: SU - number of days with Tx > 25 °C, umber of days with Tx > 90<sup>th</sup> percentile, and WSDI - number of days in intervals of at least six consecutive days for which Tx is higher than the calendar day 90<sup>th</sup> percentile. Daily values of air temperatures from 11 meteorological stations distributed across Serbia were used for the period 1949–2017.</p><p>Trends of extreme temperature events and their frequencies are examined. The period 1949–2017 are characterised by a warming of extreme temperature indices (SU, Tx90, HWs). It is found that maximum air temperatures increased at all stations, but statistically significant at 6 stations in winter, 4 stations in summer and two stations in spring. The average number of SU per station was between 63.1 in Novi Sad to 73.5 in Negotin during the summer season. Significant increase of SU is recorded in summer for 10 out of 11 stations. Positive trends of SU and Tx90 are observed for all stations and seasons, except in Novi Sad. The average number of Tx90 is about 9 for all stations in all seasons. The longest heat waves prevailed in 2012, but the most severe are recorded in 2007. Increasing of warm extreme events in Serbia are in agreement with studies for different regions of the world.</p>

scholarly journals Surface Circulation Types and Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in Southern La Plata Basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (11) ◽  
pp. 2450-2459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Clorinda Penalba ◽  
María Laura Bettolli ◽  
Pablo Andrés Krieger
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
La Plata ◽  
Circulation Types ◽  
La Plata Basin ◽  
Surface Circulation

AbstractLa Plata basin is one of the most important agricultural and hydropower-producing regions in the world. Extreme climate events such as cold and heat waves and frost events have a significant socioeconomic impact. This work analyzes the influence of the surface circulation in southern South America on daily maximum temperature TMAX and daily minimum temperature TMIN in southern La Plata basin. A Z test for the comparison of mean values and a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for the comparison of distributions of TMAX and TMIN associated with each circulation pattern were performed. Specific daily surface circulation types are found to contribute to TMAX and TMIN anomalies and to have a predominant occurrence in the development of the extreme temperature events in the region. The TMAX spatial response to the regional low-level circulation is more homogenous and extended than is the response of TMIN.

scholarly journals Heat waves characteristics and their relation to air quality in Athens

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 919-928 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Daily Average ◽  
Suburban Site

<div> <p>This paper studies the characteristics of the heat waves that were observed in Athens, Greece since 1951. A heat wave is detected when two temperature criteria are fulfilled at the city centre: the daily maximum temperature value is at least 37 <sup>o</sup>C and the daily average temperature value is at least 31 <sup>o</sup>C. Information about the intensity, duration, timing in season and annual frequency of occurrence of heat waves were extracted. The slope of the linear fit of the annual number of heat wave days indicated that 1.30 more heat wave days per year were observed after 1992. The intensity and the duration of heat waves have also increased since 90s, while heat wave days have been detected during the whole summer since then, even during the first days of September. Additionally, air quality at the centre and at a suburb of Athens during the heat wave days that were identified during the last decade is examined. The daily average value of PM<sub>10</sub> concentration exceeded 50 μg m<sup>-3</sup> in 65% and 59% of the heat wave days at the urban and the suburban site, respectively, while the information and the alert O<sub>3</sub> threshold were exceeded in 17% and 5% of the heat wave days, respectively, at the suburban site. The degradation of air quality during heat wave days is also verified by the means of the common air quality index. Moreover, it was found that O<sub>3</sub> levels decrease when heat waves last more than 6 days.&nbsp;</p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p>

scholarly journals Characterization and Spatial Coverage of Heat Waves in Subtropical Brazil

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolle Cordero Simões dos Reis ◽  
Nathalie Tissot Boiaski ◽  
Simone Erotildes Teleginski Ferraz
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Subtropical Region ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Close Relationship

Given the increase in the frequency, intensity, and persistence of heat waves since the 1970s, and in view of the impacts that extreme temperatures may cause for society and the economy, this study aims to characterize heat waves in the subtropical region of Brazil and compare findings with the criterion defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Daily maximum temperature data was used. By using the percentile methodology, the subtropical region was divided into two regions: region 1 and region 2. We identified 54 heat waves in region 1 and 34 in region 2, which occurred more frequently in winter and spring, and less frequently in summer. A close relationship was observed between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), both of which are able to modulate the heat waves in each of the different regions. Region 1 presented the highest number of heat waves during the warm (cold) phase of the PDO. As for ENSO, heat waves were more frequent in the neutral phase in both regions. Finally, there was shown to be an increase in the frequency and persistence of heat waves since the 1980s, especially in region 2. The methodology used in this study allows the identification and characterization of heat waves in several regions of different climates.

scholarly journals Lyapunov Exponents and Temperature Transitions in a Warming Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (10) ◽  
pp. 2969-2989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Gilmore
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Maximum Daily Temperature ◽  
State Variable ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Abstract Multiple potential tipping points in the Earth system that involve alternative states have been identified that are susceptible to anthropogenic forcing. Past events—from millions of years ago to within the last century—have manifest as abrupt changes in climatic indicators such as the temperature record. Recent unprecedented heat waves in Australia, their associated devastation, and the considerations above provide motivation to ask whether the Australian daily maximum temperature record has been subject to such abrupt changes. Using a new diagnostic tool—the Lyapunov plot—here it is shown that multiple temperature transitions have occurred with respect to the maximum daily temperature record in widely separated locations in Australia over the last 150 years. All maximum Lyapunov exponents are positive in sign, indicating that the transitions are chaos-to-chaos transitions, and that the different climate modes identified are likely to be manifestations of distinct chaotic attractors. Many of these events occur simultaneously with transitions or extremes in the major natural cycles affecting Australia’s climate, but this observation is not universal. It is known that chaos-to-chaos transitions can result in changes in the value(s) of the state variable(s) that can range from subtle to severe. Although the identified transitions are not catastrophic, this observation does not rule out the possibility of severe, unprecedented, and discontinuous increases in average daily maximum temperatures occurring in Australia at any time within the next few decades.

scholarly journals Social media reveal ecoregional variation in how weather influences visitor behavior in U.S. National Park Service units

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily J. Wilkins ◽  
Peter D. Howe ◽  
Jordan W. Smith
Keyword(s):  
National Park ◽  
National Park Service ◽  
Spatial Behavior ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Daily Weather ◽  
Visitor Behavior ◽  
Park Service ◽  
The Impact

AbstractDaily weather affects total visitation to parks and protected areas, as well as visitors’ experiences. However, it is unknown if and how visitors change their spatial behavior within a park due to daily weather conditions. We investigated the impact of daily maximum temperature and precipitation on summer visitation patterns within 110 U.S. National Park Service units. We connected 489,061 geotagged Flickr photos to daily weather, as well as visitors’ elevation and distance to amenities (i.e., roads, waterbodies, parking areas, and buildings). We compared visitor behavior on cold, average, and hot days, and on days with precipitation compared to days without precipitation, across fourteen ecoregions within the continental U.S. Our results suggest daily weather impacts where visitors go within parks, and the effect of weather differs substantially by ecoregion. In most ecoregions, visitors stayed closer to infrastructure on rainy days. Temperature also affects visitors’ spatial behavior within parks, but there was not a consistent trend across ecoregions. Importantly, parks in some ecoregions contain more microclimates than others, which may allow visitors to adapt to unfavorable conditions. These findings suggest visitors’ spatial behavior in parks may change in the future due to the increasing frequency of hot summer days.

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