Testifying SALTMED model using field data in Almaty region, South-east Kazakhstan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baktybek Duisebek ◽  
Maria Shahgedanova ◽  
Andrew Wade ◽  
Ragab Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Spring Maize ◽  
East Kazakhstan ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Tien Shan Mountains ◽  
Northern Tien Shan ◽  
Modelling Approach

<p>South-eastern Kazakhstan is located in the foothills of the Northern Tien Shan Mountains. It has favourable conditions for growing diverse crops but many depend on irrigation. Water is provided by the melt of seasonal snow pack and glaciers.  Crop production in this region is relatively vulnerable to climate change. This study carried experimental measurement with modelling approach to assess and determine how climate change will impact major crop production in the region. The SALTMED crop model was tested for its ability to simulate soil water content (SWC), and final grain yield (Y) for rain-fed winter wheat and irrigated spring maize in 2017 and 2019 respectively. SALTMED is able to simulate SWC with a high degree of accuracy in both field. Simulating maize yield is fairly well, and if an adjustment was made for the locust effect for wheat, simulation would be better. Therefore, since SALTMED does not include the effect of pest on crop yield, a fairer test of the model would estimate the yield without the pest effect. Generally, SALTMED can be applicable in the region.</p>

scholarly journals Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate

2006 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Hagg ◽  
L.N. Braun ◽  
M. Weber ◽  
M. Becht
Keyword(s):  
Tien Shan ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Complex Picture ◽  
Daily Time Step ◽  
The Alps ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Tien Shan Mountains

A conceptual precipitation–runoff model was applied in five glacierized catchments in Central Asia. The model, which was first developed and applied in the Alps, works on a daily time step and yields good results in the more continental climate of the Tien Shan mountains for present-day climate conditions. Runoff scenarios for different climates (doubling of CO2) and glacierization conditions predict an increased flood risk as a first stage and a more complex picture after a complete glacier loss: a higher discharge during spring due to an earlier and more intense snowmelt is followed by a water deficiency in hot and dry summer periods. This unfavourable seasonal redistribution of the water supply has dramatic consequences for the Central Asian lowlands, which depend to a high degree on the glacier melt water for irrigation and already nowadays suffer from water shortages.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of climate change on maize yield in Victoria Nile Sub-basin, Uganda

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joash Bwambale ◽  
Khaldoon A. Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
Supplementary Irrigation ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAgriculture is the backbone of Uganda’s economy, with about 24.9% contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) as per the Uganda National Household Survey 2016/17. Agricultural productivity (yield per hectare) is still low due to the high dependence on rain-fed subsistence farming. Climate change is expected to further reduce the yield per hectare. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on maize yield in the Victoria Nile Sub-basin using the AquaCrop model. It further assesses the possible adaptation measures to climate change. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2–Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) data downloaded from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was used to simulate maize yield in the near future (2021–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and late future (2071–2099). Results show that maize yield is likely to reduce by as high as 1–10%, 2–42% and 1–39% in the near, mid and late futures, respectively, depending on the agro-ecological zone. This decline in maize yield can have a significant impact on regional food security as well as socio-economic well-being since maize is a staple crop. The study also shows that improving soil fertility has no significant impact on maize yield under climate change. However, a combined application of supplementary irrigation and shifting the planting dates is a promising strategy to maintain food security and socio-economic development. This study presents important findings and adaptation strategies that policymakers and other stakeholders such as farmers can implement to abate the effects of climate change on crop production.

scholarly journals Three new species of Scythrididae from the northern Tien-Shan Mountains (Lepidoptera: Scythrididae)

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-128
Author(s):  
Kari Nupponen ◽  
Sergey Yu. Sinev
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Single Female ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Unknown Species ◽  
The Family ◽  
Three New Species ◽  
Tien Shan Mountains ◽  
Northern Tien Shan

Three new species of the family Scythrididae are described from Central Asian mountains: Scythris cultelloides Nupponen & Sinev, sp. n., S. danilevskyi Nupponen & Sinev, sp. n. and S. ganesha Nupponen & Sinev, sp. n. One unknown species is reported but not formally described because only a single female is available.

scholarly journals Estimating the Effect of Climatic Variables and Crop Area on Maize Yield in Ghana

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (9) ◽  
pp. 313-321
Author(s):  
Henry De-Graft Acquah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Crop Area

Climate change tends to have negative effects on crop yield through its influence on crop production. Understanding the relationship between climatic variables, crop area and crop yield will facilitate development of appropriate policies to cope with climate change. This study therefore examines the effects of climatic variables and crop area on maize yield in Ghana based on regression model using historical data (1970-2010). Linear and Non-linear regression model specifications of the production function were employed in the study. The study found that growing season temperature trend is significantly increasing by 0.03oC yearly whereas growing season rainfall trend is insignificantly increasing by 0.25mm on yearly basis. It was also observed that rainfall is becoming increasingly unpredictable with poor distributions throughout the season. Results from the linear and non-linear regression models suggest that rainfall increase and crop area expansion have a positive and significant influence on mean maize yield. However, temperature increase will adversely affect mean maize yield. In conclusion, the study found that there exists not only a linear but also a non-linear relationship between climatic variables and maize yield.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 °C & 2.0 °C

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Chen ◽  
Zhao Zhang ◽  
Fulu Tao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Growth Duration ◽  
Growth Environment ◽  
Warming Scenario ◽  
Yield Decrease

Abstract. A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels has been established in Paris Agreement, which calls for understanding of climate risk under 1.5 ℃ & 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e., maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106–2115 at warming scenarios of 1.5 ℃ & 2.0 ℃ using the method of ensemble simulation with well-validated MCWLA family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters, and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that the decrease of crop growth duration and the increase of extreme events impacts in the future would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the cultivation areas. By contrast, with the moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resource could be ameliorated which enhance canopy photosynthesis, and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly deteriorate maize growth environment but result in much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, the wheat and rice yields could increase by 3.9 % and 4.1 %, respectively, and maize yield could increase by 0.2 %, at a warming scenario of 1.5 ℃. At the warming scenario of 2.0 ℃, wheat and rice yield would increase by 8.6 % and 9.4 %, respectively, but maize yield could decrease by 1.7 %. In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for the crop development and food security in China. Moreover, although variability of crop yield would increase with the change of climate scenario from 1.5 ℃ warming to 2.0 ℃ warming, the probability of crop yield decrease would decrease. Our findings highlight that the 2.0 ℃ warming scenario would be more suitable for crop production in China, but the expected increase in extreme events impacts should be paid more attention to.

scholarly journals AMINO ACID AND VITAMIN COMPOSITION OF CRATAEGUS ORIENTALIS PALL

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (446) ◽  
pp. 149-154
Author(s):  
Y. S. Ikhsanov ◽  
K. M. Kusainova ◽  
G. Y. Tasmagambetova ◽  
N. T. Andasova ◽  
Y. A. Litvinenko
Keyword(s):  
Forest Cover ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Deciduous Forests ◽  
Quantitative Composition ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Group B ◽  
Tien Shan Mountains ◽  
Warm Temperate ◽  
Northern Tien Shan

The genus hawthorn (Crataegus) belongs to the apple subfamily (Maloideae Focke) of the Rosaceae Juss family. The hawthorn genus includes about 1500 species distributed in warm temperate and subtropical regions of the northern hemisphere, mainly in North America. Over 80 wild and 90 introduced species grow on the territory of the CIS. Kazakhstan belongs to the forest-deficient regions; the forest cover of the territory is 3.87%. The hawthorn, which grows in flat areas, at the foot of the mountains, in the mountains, in the steppe and forest-steppe, is quite common here, is part of the undergrowth of deciduous forests, forms thickets with other shrubs. 7 wild-growing species are found in Kazakhstan: Crataegus almatensis A. Pojark., Crataegus pontica A. Koch, Crataegus turkestanica A. Pojark., Crataegus sanguinea Pall., Crataegus altaica Lge., Crataegus transkaspica A. Kocharus., Crataegus transkaspica A. Kocharus., The range of arboretums in Kazakhstan includes up to 40 - 50 species of hawthorn. In various elements of landscaping, hawthorns of various origins found; in particular, at least 20 species grow in urban plantings of Almaty. The hawthorn is widespread in the Northern Tien Shan Mountains: Zailiyskiy, Dzhungarskiy and Kungey Alatau. Plants of the genus Crataegus are rich in vitamins A, C, E, K and group B, and also contain sugars, flavonoids, saponins, phytosterols, glycosides, tannins, organic acids, amygdalin, essential oils. Thus, hawthorn is a promising raw material for the creation of domestic medicines. This article examines the study of the quantitative composition of amino acids and vitamins in the fruits of the species of the genus Crataegus widespread in Kazakhstan in a supercritical extract isolated and the fruits of the Crataegus orientalis Pall plant, in order to establish the possibility of using and with subsequent cultivation of the selected species.

scholarly journals Responses of various-sized alpine glaciers and runoff to climatic change

2003 ◽  
Vol 49 (164) ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Baisheng ◽  
Ding Yongjian ◽  
Liu Fengjing ◽  
Liu Caohai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Alpine Glaciers ◽  
Glacier Runoff ◽  
Glacial Runoff ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Tien Shan Mountains

AbstractThis paper presents a glacier ice-flow model that simulates changes to alpine glaciers of various sizes and their runoff response to climate change in the Yili river basin in the Tien Shan mountains, northwestern China. It is suggested that the sensitivity of glaciers to climatic change is determined by glacier size. The change in glacial runoff does not keep pace with climatic change. As climate warms and glaciers retreat, the glacier runoff tends to increase and then decrease. The runoff peak and its timing depend not only on glacier size but also on the rate of air-temperature rise.

scholarly journals The Potential to Reconstruct Manasi River Streamflow in the Northern Tien Shan Mountains (NW China)

2007 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujiang Yuan ◽  
Xuemei Shao ◽  
Wenshou Wei ◽  
Shulong Yu ◽  
Yuan Gong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tien Shan ◽  
Nw China ◽  
Tien Shan Mountains ◽  
Northern Tien Shan
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document