Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century

Global climate model projections suggest that 21st century climate change will bring significant drying in the terrestrial midlatitudes. Recent glacier modeling suggests that runoff from glaciers will continue to provide substantial freshwater in many drainage basins, though the supply will generally diminish throughout the century. In the absence of dynamic glacier ice within global climate models (GCMs), a comprehensive picture of future drought conditions in glaciated regions has been elusive. Here, we leverage the results of existing GCM simulations and a global glacier model to evaluate glacial buffering of droughts in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We find that accounting for glacial runoff tends to increase multi-model ensemble mean SPEI and reduce drought frequency and severity, even in basins with relatively little glacier cover. Glacial drought buffering persists even as glacial runoff is projected to decline through the 21st century.

Patterns of Benthic Communities in Arctic Fjords (Novaya Zemlya Archipelago, Kara Sea): Resilience vs. Fragility

Despite a large number of studies, a detailed overall picture of benthic communities zonation in the Arctic fjords is currently lacking. Our study aimed to find out whether there is a universal model for the distribution of benthic communities based on the structural features of the fjords. We examined benthic macrofaunal communities in fjords with various environmental settings on the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya Archipelago, Kara Sea. The material was collected during five cruises undertaken from 2013 to 2016. A total of 50 stations located in the five fjords were taken. In all five fjords, macrofauna had a similar composition assembled from a regional species pool, with a predominance of species tolerant to glacial sedimentation and fluctuations in temperature and salinity. Benthic communities changed consistently along the axis of the bay from the outer slope to the inner parts. Biodiversity and quantitative characteristics of the macrofauna decreased along the environmental gradient related to terrigenous and glacial runoff, consistent with patterns reported in other studies of Arctic glacial fjords. The most impoverished communities were dominated by bivalve Portlandia arctica and isopod Saduria sabini. At the same time, fjord walls and sills, characterized by low sedimentation rates, strong currents and the presence of ice-rafted debris, were inhabited by patchy distributed benthic communities dominated by species confined to hard substrates. In general, the distribution of communities corresponded to five zones: depleted inner periglacial areas, the upper subtidal belt with stony substrates, deep inner semi-isolated basin, outer non-isolated basins and upper slope transitioning to lower slope. Our study can provide a reference point for monitoring changes in fjord ecosystems in response to climate change and the potential impact of human activities.

Freshwater routing in eddy-permitting simulations of the last deglacial: the impact of realistic freshwater discharge

Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability, such as the Younger Dryas and Dansgaard–Oeschger events, but this relationship is not straightforward. Large-scale glacial runoff events, such as Meltwater Pulse 1a (MWP1a), are not always temporally proximal to subsequent large-scale cooling. Moreover, the typical design of hosing experiments that support this relationship tends to artificially amplify the climate response. This study explores the impact that limitations in the representation of runoff in conventional “hosing” simulations has on our understanding of this relationship by examining where coastally released freshwater is transported when it reaches the ocean. We particularly focus on the impact of (1) the injection of freshwater directly over sites of deep-water formation (DWF) rather than at runoff locations (i.e. hosing), (2) excessive freshwater injection volumes (often by a factor of 5), and (3) the use of present-day (rather than palaeo) ocean gateways. We track the routing of glaciologically constrained freshwater volumes from four different inferred injection locations in a suite of eddy-permitting glacial ocean simulations using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) under both open and closed Bering Strait conditions. Restricting freshwater forcing values to realistic ranges results in less spreading of freshwater across the North Atlantic and indicates that the freshwater anomalies over DWF sites depend strongly on the geographical location of meltwater input. In particular, freshwater released into the Gulf of Mexico generates a very weak freshwater signal over DWF regions as a result of entrainment by the turbulent Gulf Stream. In contrast, freshwater released into the Arctic with an open Bering Strait or from the Eurasian ice sheet is found to generate the largest salinity anomalies over DWF regions in the North Atlantic and GIN (Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian) seas region respectively. Experiments show that when the Bering Strait is open, the Mackenzie River source exhibits more than twice as much freshening of the North Atlantic deep-water formation regions as when the Bering Strait is closed. Our results illustrate that applying freshwater hosing directly into the North Atlantic with even “realistic” freshwater amounts still overestimates the amount of terrestrial runoff reaching DWF regions. Given the simulated salinity anomaly distributions and the lack of reconstructed impact on deep-water formation during the Bølling–Allerød, our results support that the majority of the North American contribution to MWP1a was not routed through the Mackenzie River.

Temporal Relationship of Increased Palaeodischarges and Late Glacial Deglaciation Phases on the Catchment of River Maros/Mureş, Central Europe

River Maros/Mureş has one of the largest alluvial fans in the Carpathian Basin. On the surface of the fan several very wide, braided channels can be identified, resembling increased discharges during the Late Glacial. In our study we investigated the activity period of the largest channel of them, formed under a bankfull discharge three times higher than present day values. Previous investigations dated the formation of the palaeochannel to the very end of the Pleistocene by dating a point bar series upstream of the selected site. Our aim was to obtain further data on the activity period of the channel and to investigate temporal relationships between maximum palaeodischarges, deglaciation phases on the upland catchment and climatic amelioration during the Late Pleistocene. The age of sediment samples was determined by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). The investigation of the luminescence properties of the quartz extracts also enabled the assessment of sediment delivery dynamics in comparison to other palaeochannels on the alluvial fan. OSL age results suggest that the activity of the channel is roughly coincident with, but slightly older than the previously determined ages, meaning that the main channel forming period started at 13.50±0.94 ka and must have ended by 8.64±0.82 ka. This period cannot directly be related to the major phases of glacier retreat on the upland catchments, and in terms of other high discharge channels only the activity of one overlaps with a major deglaciation phase at ~17-18 ka. Based on these, high palaeodischarges can be rather related to increased Late Glacial runoff, resulted by increasing precipitation and scarce vegetation cover on the catchment. Meanwhile, the quartz luminescence sensitivity of the investigated channel refers to fast sediment delivery from upland subcatchments. Therefore, the retreat of glaciers could affect alluvial processes on the lowland by increasing sediment availability, which contributed to the development of large braided palaeochannels.

The Spatiotemporal Regime of Glacier Runoff in Oases Indicates the Potential Climatic Risk in Dryland Areas of China

Glaciers continuously affected by climate change are of great concern; their supply and runoff variation tendency under the pressure of increasing populations, especially in dryland areas, should be studied. Due to the difficulty of observing glacier runoff, little attention has been given to establishing high-resolution and long-term series datasets established for glacial runoff. Using the latest dataset using digital elevation models (DEMs) to obtain regional individual glacier mass balance, simulating the spatiotemporal regime of glacier runoff in oases that support almost the entire income in the dryland areas of China (DAC) could be possible. The simulations quantitatively assess glacier runoff, including meltwater runoff and delayed runoff, in each basin of the DAC at a spatial resolution of 100 m from 1961 to 2015, classify glaciers according to the potential climatic risks based on the prediction results. The total glacier runoff in the DAC is (98.52 ± 67.37) × 108 m3, in which the meltwater runoff is (63.43 ± 42.17) × 108 m3, accounting for 64.38 %. Most basins had continuously increasing tendencies of different magnitudes from 1961 to 2015, except for the Shiyang River basin, which reached its peak in approximately 2000. Glacier runoff nurtured nearly 143,939.24 km2 of oasis agricultural areas (OAA) until 2015, while 19 regions with a total population of 14 million were built alongside the oases, where glacier runoff occupies an important place in agricultural, industrial and municipal water consumption. Therefore, providing a long time series of glacier runoff for different river basins is of great significance to the sustainable development of the oasis economy in the arid zones.

Environmental characteristics and changes of bacterial communities in the meltwater runoff of glacier in Ny-Alesund, Arctic

The present study assessed the diversity and composition of bacterial communities in glacial runoff and glacial soils in the Midre Lovénbreen glacier region of Svalbard. A total of 6,593 operational taxonomic units were identified by high-throughput sequencing. The results showed differences in bacterial community composition between the upper and lower reaches of glacial runoff. The abundance of Actinobacteria, Firmicutes, Betaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria in the upper reaches of glacial runoff was higher than that in the lower reaches. In contrast, the the abundance of Cyanobacteria and Alphaproteobacteria in the downstream of glacial runoff was higher than that in the upstream. In addition, we compared bacterial diversity and composition between glacial runoff areas and soils. The chart analysis showed that bacterial diversity in glacial soil was higher than that in the glacial runoff. Some typical bacteria in the soil, such as Actinobacteria, entered glacial runoff through contact between them. The abundance of Acidobacteria, Sphingobacterium and Flavobacterium was higher in glacial soil. Weighted correlation network analysis showed that the core bacteria in glacial runoff and glacial soil were typical bacteria in different habitats. Distance-based redundancy analysis revealed that NO 2 - -N was the most significant factor affecting the distribution of soil bacterial community, while NO 3 - -N was the most significant factor affecting the distribution of glacial runoff bacterial community.

Modelling future evolution of glaciation in the Central Caucasus

<p>The retreat of glaciers of the Greater Caucasus in the second half of the 20th and early 21st centuries was recorded by a variety of methods, including both direct instrumental observations and remote sensing. It is natural to expect that in the conditions of a gradually warming climate, the general trend of glacier retreat will continue in the future.</p><p>In the foothills of the North Caucasus, an important agricultural region, the problem of expected changes in mountain glaciation is particularly acute, since fluctuations in the flow regime of local rivers depend on the evolution of glaciers: the contribution of glacial runoff to total discharge is very significant. Retreating glaciers can also cause lakes to appear in local depressions in the underlying relief. Their possible breakthrough could cause significant damage to the economy and threaten human lives. The forecast of runoff and lake formation are associated with the projections on the future state of mountain glaciation.</p><p>Here, we present the work in progress to assess the rate of future glacier change in the Central Caucasus throughout the 21st century. The aim is to determine how the characteristics of mountain glaciation (its area, volume, position of the glacier fronts) of the Central Caucasus will change, depending on the climate scenario. In order to accomplish this goal, we use the GloGEMflow model (Zekollari et al., 2019) with an updated radiation block (Rybak et al., 2021, in press) and a set of CMIP5/CMIP6 climate scenarios. The GloGEMflow model features an ice flow block which is calibrated to match the Huss & Farinotti (2012, updated to RGI6.0) glacier geometry data. Validation of the model is based on the assessment of discrepancies arising when comparing data about glaciers boundaries changes for the period from ~2000 (RGI6.0) to 2018 (Department of Glaciology RAS).</p><p>The reported study was funded by RFBR and RS, project number 21-55-100003.</p>

Eddy permitting simulations of freshwater injection from major Northern Hemisphere outlets during the last deglacial

Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in centennial to millennial scale climate variability such as the Younger Dryas and Dansgaard-Oeschger Events. Indeed, freshwater injection/hosing experiments with climate models have long shown that freshwater has the capability of generating such abrupt climate transitions. However, the relationship between freshwater and abrupt climate transitions is not straightforward. Large-scale glacial runoff events, such as Meltwater Pulse 1A, are not always temporally proximal to subsequent large-scale cooling. As well, the typical design of hosing experiments tends to artificially amplify the climate response. This study explores the impact that limitations in the representation of runoff in conventional hosing simulations has on our understanding of this relationship and addresses the more fundamental question of where coastally released freshwater is transported when it reaches the ocean. We focus particularly on the prior use of excessive freshwater volumes (often by a factor of 5) and present-day (rather than paleo) ocean gateways, as well as the injection of freshwater directly over sites of deep-water formation (DWF) rather than at runoff locations. We track the routing of glaciologically-constrained freshwater volumes from four different plausible injection locations in a suite of eddy-permitting glacial ocean simulations using MITGCM under both open and closed Bering Strait conditions. Restricting freshwater forcing values to realistic ranges results in less spreading of freshwater across the North Atlantic and indicates that the response of DWF depends strongly on the geographical location of meltwater input. In particular, freshwater released into the Gulf of Mexico has little impact on DWF regions as a result of turbulent mixing by the Gulf Stream. In contrast, freshwater released from the Eurasian Ice sheet or initially into the Arctic is found to have the largest impact on DWF in the North Atlantic and GIN seas. Additional experiments show that when the Bering Strait is open, much like present-day, the Mackenzie River source exhibits twice as much freshening of the Labrador sea as a closed Bering Strait. Finally, our results illustrate that applying a freshwater hosing directly into the North Atlantic with even realistic freshwater amounts still over-estimates the effect of terrestrial runoff on ocean circulation.