Drawing the landslide susceptibility maps based on long term evolution of extreme rainfall-induced landslide

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunhung Wu
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Landslide Inventory ◽  
Landslide Area ◽  
Typhoon Morakot ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Susceptibility Model ◽  
Landslide Ratio ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Maps

<p>This research is concerned with the prediction accuracy and applicability of statistical landslide susceptibility model to the areas with dense landslide distribution caused by extreme rainfall events and how to draw the annual landslide susceptibility maps after the extreme rainfall events. The landslide induced by 2009 Typhoon Morakot, i.e. an extreme rainfall event, in the Chishan river watershed is dense distributed. We compare the annual landslide inventories in the following 5 years after 2009 Typhoon Morakot and finds the similarity of landslide distribution.</p><p>The landslide distributions from 2008 to 2014 are concentrated in the midstream and upstream watersheds. The landslide counts and area in 2009 are 3.4 times and 7.4 times larger than those in 2008 due to 2009 Typhoon Morakot. The landslide counts and area in 2014 are only 69.8% and 53.4 % of those in 2009. The landslide area from 2010 to 2014 shows that the landslide area in the following years after 2009 Typhoon Morakot gradually decreases if without any heavy rainfall event with more accumulated rainfall than that during 2009 Typhoon Morakot.</p><p>The landslide ratio in the upstream watershed in 2008 is 1.37%, and that from 2009 to 2014 are over 3.51%. The landslide ratio in the upstream watershed in 2014 is 1.17 times larger than that in 2009. On average, the landslide inventory from 2010 to 2014 in the upstream watershed is composed of 60.1 % old landslide originated from 2009 Typhoon Morakot and 39.9 % new landslide.</p><p>The landslide ratio in the midstream watershed reaches peak (9.19%) in 2009 and decreases gradually to 2.56 % in 2014. The landslide ratio in 2014 in the midstream watershed is only 27.9% of that in 2009, and that means around 72.1 % of landslide area in 2009 in the midstream watershed has recovered. On average, the landslide inventory from 2010 to 2014 in the midstream watershed is composed of 76.1 % old landslide originated from 2009 Typhoon Morakot and 23.9 % new landslide.</p><p>The research uses the landslide area in 2009 and 2014 in the same subareas to calculate the expanding or contracting ratio of landslide area. The contracting ratio of riverbank and non-riverbank landslide area in the midstream watershed are 0.760 and 0.788, while that in the downstream watershed are 0.732 and 0.789. The expanding ratio of riverbank and non-riverbank landslide area in the upstream watershed are 1.04 and 1.02.</p><p>The annual landslide susceptibility in each subarea in the Chishan river watershed in a specific year from 2010 to 2014 is the production of landslide susceptibility in 2009 and the contraction or expanding ratio to the Nth power, and the N number is how many years between 2009 and the specific year. We adopt the above-mentioned equation and the landslide susceptibility model based on the landslide inventory after 2009 Typhoon Morakot to draw the annual landslide susceptibility maps in 2010 to 2014. The mean correct ratio value of landslide susceptibility model in 2009 is 70.9%, and that from 2010 to 2014 are 62.5% to 73.8%.</p>

scholarly journals Landslide Susceptibility Based on Extreme Rainfall-Induced Landslide Inventories and the Following Landslide Evolution

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunhung Wu
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Typhoon Morakot ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Correct Ratio ◽  
Landslide Evolution

Landslide susceptibility assessment is crucial for mitigating and preventing landslide disasters. Most landslide susceptibility studies have focused on creating landslide susceptibility models for specific rainfall or earthquake events, but landslide susceptibility in the years after specific events are also valuable for further discussion, especially after extreme rainfall events. This research provides a new method to draw an annual landslide susceptibility map in the 5 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009) in the Chishan River watershed in Taiwan. This research establishes four landslide susceptibility models by using four methods and 12 landslide-related factors and selects the model with the optimum performance. This research analyzes landslide evolution in the 5 years after Typhoon Morakot and estimates the average landslide area different ratio (LAD) in upstream, midstream, and downstream of the Chishan River watershed. We combine landslide susceptibility with the model with the highest performance and average annual LAD to draw an annual landslide susceptibility map, and its mean correct ratio ranges from 62.5% to 73.8%.

scholarly journals The Effect of Aspect on Landslide and Its Relationship with Other Parameters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seda Cellek
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Morphological Structure ◽  
Landslide Area ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Landslides Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Maps

Aspect is one of the parameters used in the preparation of landslide susceptibility maps. The procedure of this easily accessible and conclusive parameter is still a matter of debate in the literature. Each landslide area has its own morphological structure, so it is not possible to make a generalization for the aspect. In other words, there is no aspect in which landslides develop in particular. Generally, landslides occur in areas facing more than one direction. The biggest reason for this is that those areas are under the influence of other parameters. Therefore, it is wrong to evaluate the aspect, alone. Since it is a part of the system, it should be evaluated together with other conditioning factors. In this research, many landslides susceptibility studies have been investigated. The directions and causes of landslides have been determined from the studies. In addition, the criteria of the used aspect classes have been investigated. In the literature, the number of class intervals chosen, and their reasons were investigated, and the effects of this parameter were tried to be revealed in new sensitivity studies.

scholarly journals Application of High-Resolution Radar Rain Data to the Predictive Analysis of Landslide Susceptibility under Climate Change in the Laonong Watershed, Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 3855
Author(s):  
Chun-Wei Tseng ◽  
Cheng-En Song ◽  
Su-Fen Wang ◽  
Yi-Chin Chen ◽  
Jien-Yi Tu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Typhoon Morakot ◽  
Multi Temporal ◽  
High Resolution Radar ◽  
Rain Data ◽  
Landslide Ratio

Extreme rainfall has caused severe road damage and landslide disasters in mountainous areas. Rainfall forecasting derived from remote sensing data has been widely adopted for disaster prevention and early warning as a trend in recent years. By integrating high-resolution radar rain data, for example, the QPESUMS (quantitative precipitation estimation and segregation using multiple sensors) system provides a great opportunity to establish the extreme climate-based landslide susceptibility model, which would be helpful in the prevention of hillslope disasters under climate change. QPESUMS was adopted to obtain spatio-temporal rainfall patterns, and further, multi-temporal landslide inventories (2003–2018) would integrate with other explanatory factors and therefore, we can establish the logistic regression method for prediction of landslide susceptibility sites in the Laonong River watershed, which was devastated by Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Simulations of landslide susceptibility under the critical rainfall (300, 600, and 900 mm) were designed to verify the model’s sensitivity. Due to the orographic effect, rainfall was concentrated at the low mountainous and middle elevation areas in the southern Laonong River watershed. Landslide change analysis indicates that the landslide ratio increased from 1.5% to 7.0% after Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Subsequently, the landslide ratio fluctuated between 3.5% and 4.5% after 2012, which indicates that the recovery of landslide areas is still in progress. The validation results showed that the calibrated model of 2005 is preferred in the general period, with an accuracy of 78%. For extreme rainfall typhoons, the calibrated model of 2009 would perform better (72%). This study presented that the integration of multi-temporal landslide inventories in a logistic regression model is capable of predicting rainfall-triggered landslide risk under climate change.

scholarly journals Predictive analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Kao-Ping watershed, Taiwan under climate change conditions

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 575-606 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. J. Shou ◽  
C. C. Wu ◽  
J. F. Lin
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Rainfall Frequency ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
Susceptibility Model

Abstract. Among the most critical issues, climatic abnormalities caused by global warming also affect Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary Typhoon Morakot hit Southern Taiwan on 8 August 2009 and induced serious flooding and landslides. In this study, the Kao-Ping River watershed was adopted as the study area, and the typical events 2007 Krosa Typhoon and 2009 Morakot Typhoon were adopted to train the susceptibility model. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the Kao-Ping River watershed. The rainfall estimates were introduced in the landslide susceptibility model to produce the predictive landslide susceptibility for various rainfall scenarios, including abnormal climate conditions. These results can be used for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Kao-Ping River watershed.

DEVELOPMENT OF LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPS IN COLORADO

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kassandra Lindsey ◽  
◽  
Matthew L. Morgan ◽  
Karen A. Berry
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Maps

scholarly journals Hybrid Integration Approach of Entropy with Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine for Landslide Susceptibility Modeling

Entropy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 884 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingyu Zhang ◽  
Ling Han ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Himan Shahabi
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Maps

The main purpose of the present study is to apply three classification models, namely, the index of entropy (IOE) model, the logistic regression (LR) model, and the support vector machine (SVM) model by radial basis function (RBF), to produce landslide susceptibility maps for the Fugu County of Shaanxi Province, China. Firstly, landslide locations were extracted from field investigation and aerial photographs, and a total of 194 landslide polygons were transformed into points to produce a landslide inventory map. Secondly, the landslide points were randomly split into two groups (70/30) for training and validation purposes, respectively. Then, 10 landslide explanatory variables, such as slope aspect, slope angle, altitude, lithology, mean annual precipitation, distance to roads, distance to rivers, distance to faults, land use, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were selected and the potential multicollinearity problems between these factors were detected by the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC), the variance inflation factor (VIF), and tolerance (TOL). Subsequently, the landslide susceptibility maps for the study region were obtained using the IOE model, the LR–IOE, and the SVM–IOE model. Finally, the performance of these three models was verified and compared using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. The success rate results showed that the LR–IOE model has the highest accuracy (90.11%), followed by the IOE model (87.43%) and the SVM–IOE model (86.53%). Similarly, the AUC values also showed that the prediction accuracy expresses a similar result, with the LR–IOE model having the highest accuracy (81.84%), followed by the IOE model (76.86%) and the SVM–IOE model (76.61%). Thus, the landslide susceptibility map (LSM) for the study region can provide an effective reference for the Fugu County government to properly address land planning and mitigate landslide risk.

scholarly journals Integration of Landslide Susceptibility Maps for Land Use Planning and Civil Protection Emergency Management

2017 ◽  
pp. 543-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sérgio C. Oliveira ◽  
José Luís Zêzere ◽  
Clémence Guillard-Gonçalves ◽  
Ricardo A. C. Garcia ◽  
Susana Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Civil Protection ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Maps

scholarly journals GIS Based Novel Hybrid Computational Intelligence Models for Mapping Landslide Susceptibility: A Case Study at Da Lat City, Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viet-Tien Nguyen ◽  
Trong Hien Tran ◽  
Ngoc Anh Ha ◽  
Van Liem Ngo ◽  
Al-Ansari Nadhir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Computational Intelligence ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Intelligence Models ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Maps

Landslides affect properties and the lives of a large number of people in many hilly parts of Vietnam and in the world. Damages caused by landslides can be reduced by understanding distribution, nature, mechanisms and causes of landslides with the help of model studies for better planning and risk management of the area. Development of landslide susceptibility maps is one of the main steps in landslide management. In this study, the main objective is to develop GIS based hybrid computational intelligence models to generate landslide susceptibility maps of the Da Lat province, which is one of the landslide prone regions of Vietnam. Novel hybrid models of alternating decision trees (ADT) with various ensemble methods, namely bagging, dagging, MultiBoostAB, and RealAdaBoost, were developed namely B-ADT, D-ADT, MBAB-ADT, RAB-ADT, respectively. Data of 72 past landslide events was used in conjunction with 11 landslide conditioning factors (curvature, distance from geological boundaries, elevation, land use, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), relief amplitude, stream density, slope, lithology, weathering crust and soil) in the development and validation of the models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and several statistical measures were applied to validate these models. Results indicated that performance of all the models was good (AUC value greater than 0.8) but B-ADT model performed the best (AUC= 0.856). Landslide susceptibility maps generated using the proposed models would be helpful to decision makers in the risk management for land use planning and infrastructure development.

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