Post-Collapse Evolution of a Rapid Landslide from Sequential Analysis with FE and SPH-Based Models

Propagation models can study the runout and deposit of potential flow-like landslides only if a reliable estimate of the shape and size of the volumes involved in the phenomenon is available. This aspect becomes critical when a collapse has not yet occurred and the estimation of the unstable volume is not uniquely predictable. This work proposes a strategy to overcome this problem, using two established analysis methods in sequence; first, a Strength Reduction Method (SRM)-based 3D FEM allows the estimate of the instable volume; then, this data becomes an input for a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH)-based model. This strategy is applied to predict the possible evolution of Sant’Andrea landslide (North-Eastern Italian Alps). Such a complex landslide, which affects anhydrite–gypsum rocks and is strongly subject to rainfall triggering, can be considered as a prototype for the use of this procedure. In this case, the FEM–SRM model is adopted, which calibrates using mapping, monitoring, geophysical and geotechnical data to estimate the volume involved in the potential detachment. This volume is subsequently used as the input of the SPH model. In this second phase, a sensitivity analysis is also performed to complete the evaluation of the most reliable final soil deposits. The performed analyses allow a satisfactory prediction of the post-collapse landslide evolution, delivering a reliable estimate of the volumes involved in the collapse and a reliable forecast of the landslide runout.

Spatiotemporal Hotspots and Decadal Evolution of Extreme Rainfall-Induced Landslides: Case Studies in Southern Taiwan

The 2009 Typhoon Morakot triggered numerous landslides in southern Taiwan, and the landslide ratios in the Ailiao and Tamali river watershed were 7.6% and 10.7%, respectively. The sediment yields from the numerous landslides that were deposited in the gullies and narrow reaches upstream of Ailiao and Tamali river watersheds dominated the landslide recovery and evolution from 2010 to 2015. Rainfall records and annual landslide inventories from 2005 to 2015 were used to analyze the landslide evolution and identify the landslide hotspots. The landslide recovery time in the Ailiao and Tamali river watershed after 2009 Typhoon Morakot was estimated as 5 years after 2009 Typhoon Morakot. The landslide was easily induced, enlarged, or difficult to recover during the oscillating period, particularly in the sub-watersheds, with a landslide ratio > 4.4%. The return period threshold of rainfall-induced landslides during the landslide recovery period was <2 years, and the landslide types of the new or enlarged landslide were the bank-erosion landslide, headwater landslide, and the reoccurrence of old landslide. The landslide hotspot areas in the Ailiao and Tamali river watershed were 2.67–2.88 times larger after the 2009 Typhoon Morakot using the emerging hot spot analysis, and most of the new or enlarged landslide cases were identified into the oscillating or sporadic or consecutive landslide hotspots. The results can contribute to developing strategies of watershed management in watersheds with a dense landslide.

New Insight into Post-seismic Landslide Evolution Processes in the Tropics

Earthquakes do not only trigger landslides in co-seismic phases but also elevate post-seismic landslide susceptibility either by causing a strength reduction in hillslope materials or by producing co-seismic landslide deposits, which are prone to further remobilization under the external forces generated by subsequent rainfall events. However, we still have limited observations regarding the post-seismic landslide processes. And, the examined cases are rarely representative of tropical conditions where the precipitation regime is strong and persistent. Therefore, in this study, we introduce three new sets of multi-temporal landslide inventories associated with subsets of the areas affected by 1) 2016 Reuleuet (Indonesia, Mw = 6.5), 2) 2018 Porgera (Papua New Guinea, Mw = 7.5) and 3) 2012 Sulawesi (Indonesia, Mw = 6.3), 2017 Kasiguncu (Indonesia, Mw = 6.6) and 2018 Palu (Indonesia, Mw = 7.5) earthquakes. Overall, our findings show that the landslide susceptibility level associated with the occurrences of new landslides return to pre-seismic conditions in less than a year in the study areas under consideration. We stress that these observations might not be representative of the entire area affected by these earthquakes but the areal boundaries of our study areas.

Depth-Integrated Two-Phase Modeling of Two Real Cases: A Comparison between r.avaflow and GeoFlow-SPH Codes

Due to the growing populations in areas at high risk of natural disasters, hazard and risk assessments of landslides have attracted significant attention from researchers worldwide. In order to assess potential risks and design possible countermeasures, it is necessary to have a better understanding of this phenomenon and its mechanism. As a result, the prediction of landslide evolution using continuum dynamic modeling implemented in advanced simulation tools is becoming more important. We analyzed a depth-integrated, two-phase model implemented in two different sets of code to stimulate rapid landslides, such as debris flows and rock avalanches. The first set of code, r.avaflow, represents a GIS-based computational framework and employs the NOC-TVD numerical scheme. The second set of code, GeoFlow-SPH, is based on the mesh-free numerical method of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) with the capability of describing pore pressure’s evolution along the vertical distribution of flowing mass. Two real cases of an Acheron rock avalanche and Sham Tseng San Tsuen debris flow were used with the best fit values of geotechnical parameters obtained in the prior modeling to investigate the capabilities of the sets of code. Comparison of the results evidenced that both sets of code were capable of properly reproducing the run-out distance, deposition thickness, and deposition shape in the benchmark exercises. However, the values of maximum propagation velocities and thickness were considerably different, suggesting that using more than one set of simulation code allows us to predict more accurately the possible scenarios and design more effective countermeasures.

Depth integrated modelling of submarine landslide evolution

Submarine landslides are a major geohazard among worldwide continental slopes, posing significant threats to offshore infrastructure, marine animal habitats and coastal urban centres. This study establishes an original numerical package for time-efficient modelling of the entire submarine landslide evolution covering the pre-failure shear band propagation, slab failure and post-failure dynamics. The numerical scheme is based on the conservation of mass and the conservation of momentum and combines the shear band propagation theory and the depth-integrated method, with the consideration of the drag force from the ambient water. Shear band propagation in the weak layer and slab failure in the sliding layer are controlled by the strain softening and rate dependency of the corresponding undrained strength parameters. The post-failure behaviour in the sliding layer, such as retrogression upslope and frontally confined and frontally emergent mechanisms downslope, is also simulated. The numerical results from the proposed method are comparable to the analytical solutions and the large deformation finite element analysis. Application of this method to a back analysis of the St. Niklausen slide in Lake Lucerne reproduced the observed shape of the mass transport deposits, the position of the main scar and the travel distance. Because of its easy implementation and efficiency, the proposed numerical method for modelling of submarine landslides seems promising for practical applications.