scholarly journals Trends and patterns in annually burned forest areas and fire weather across the European boreal zone in the 20th and early 21st centuries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Drobyshev ◽  
Mara Kitenberga ◽  
Nina Ryzhkova ◽  
Jonathan Eden ◽  
Folmer Krikken ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Boreal Zone ◽  
High Pressure Cell ◽  
Climatic Forcing ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Disturbance Factor ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Administrative Units

<p>Fire remains the main natural disturbance factor in the European boreal zone (EBZ), which exhibits strong gradients in climate conditions, modern and historical patterns of forest use, and the modern human infrastructure density. Understanding climatic forcing on fire activity is important for projecting effects of climate change on multiple ecosystem services in this region. Here we analyzed available records of annually burned areas (ABA) in 16 administrative regions of EBZ (countries or sub-country units) and fire weather variability to test for their spatio-temporal patterns over 1901-2017. To define sub-regions of EBZ with similar fire activity we compiled 30-60 year long ABA chronologies and clustered them in Euclidian space to identify regions of EBZ with temporally synchronous fire activity. We then reconstructed 100-year long ABA chronologies for each cluster, capitalizing on its member with the highest correlation between observational fire record and climatological fire weather proxy (MDC, monthly drought code). The 100-year chronologies helped identified large fire years (LFY), i.e. years with the ABA being above 10% of its long-term distribution. The climatic forcing of these events was tested in superposed epoch analysis operated with gridded 500 hPa pressure fields. Finally, we tested trends in (a) synchrony of LFY's across clusters, (b) MDC values over the EBZ, and (c) spatial variability in July MDC over the EBZ geographic domain during 1901-2017.</p><p>EBZ exhibits large variability in forest fire activity with the fire cycles varying from ~10<sup>4</sup> (Scandinavia) to 3*10<sup>2</sup> years (Russian Republic of Komi). Clustering of administrative units in respect to their ABA suggested the presence of sub-regions with synchronous dynamics of ABA, located  along W-E and S-N gradients. LFYs in each of the cluster was associated with the development of the high pressure cell over the regions in question in July, indicating climatic forcing of LFYs. Contingency analysis indicated no long-term trend in the synchrony of LFYs observed simultaneously in several administrative units. We observed a trend towards higher values of MDC for the months of April and May in the western section of EBZ (April) and southern-eastern sections of the Baltic sea region and North sections of EBZ in Russia (May). Trends in MDC during the summer months were largely absent. We discuss teleconnections of fire activity in the EBZ with Atlantic SST.</p>

scholarly journals Validation of nine years of MOPITT V5 NIR using MOZAIC/IAGOS measurements: biases and long-term stability

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 3783-3799 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. T. J. de Laat ◽  
I. Aben ◽  
M. Deeter ◽  
P. Nédélec ◽  
H. Eskes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Near Infrared ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract. Validation results from a comparison between Measurement Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) V5 Near InfraRed (NIR) carbon monoxide (CO) total column measurements and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapour on Airbus in-service Aircraft (MOZAIC)/In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) aircraft measurements are presented. A good agreement is found between MOPITT and MOZAIC/IAGOS measurements, consistent with results from earlier studies using different validation data and despite large variability in MOPITT CO total columns along the spatial footprint of the MOZAIC/IAGOS measurements. Validation results improve when taking the large spatial footprint of the MOZAIC/IAGOS data into account. No statistically significant drift was detected in the validation results over the period 2002–2010 at global, continental and local (airport) scales. Furthermore, for those situations where MOZAIC/IAGOS measurements differed from the MOPITT a priori, the MOPITT measurements clearly outperformed the MOPITT a priori data, indicating that MOPITT NIR retrievals add value to the MOPITT a priori. Results from a high spatial resolution simulation of the chemistry-transport model MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle) showed that the most likely explanation for the large MOPITT variability along the MOZAIC-IAGOS profile flight path is related to spatio-temporal CO variability, which should be kept in mind when using MOZAIC/IAGOS profile measurements for validating satellite nadir observations.

The Influence of Sign Variations on Drivers’ Comprehension

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 1918-1922
Author(s):  
Tamar Ben-Bassat ◽  
David Shinar
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Background Color ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Road Sign ◽  
Local Sign ◽  
Specific Sign ◽  
Non Local

Road Sign comprehension studies typically focus on differences among signs, demonstrating large variability in comprehension among different signs. Differences in features of sign design can be grouped into their shape, background color, and the symbol/icon in their center. This study demonstrated that specific sign messages can be presented with different sign features without detrimental effects on either comprehension level or response time. In particular, the choice of background color (yellow or white) appears to be inconsequential for comprehension. It seems that some sign characteristics are not critical to comprehension and consequently licensed drivers may even incorrectly identify a non-local sign as the standard sign that they actually encounter on the roads. However, other sign features – especially those relating to the icon/symbol - can be critical to comprehension when they violate the icon-concept compatibility, as it is represented in drivers' long-term memory.

scholarly journals Minimum time required to detect population trends: the need for long-term monitoring programs

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Easton R White
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Species Conservation ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Iucn Red List ◽  
Series Length ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Monitoring Programs

Long-term time series are necessary to better understand population dynamics, assess species' conservation status, and make management decisions. However, population data are often expensive, requiring a lot of time and resources. What is the minimum population time series length required to detect significant trends in abundance? I first present an overview of the theory and past work that has tried to address this question. As a test of these approaches, I then examine 822 populations of vertebrate species. I show that 72% of time series required at least 10 years of continuous monitoring in order to achieve a high level of statistical power. However, the large variability between populations casts doubt on commonly used simple rules of thumb, like those employed by the IUCN Red List. I argue that statistical power needs to be considered more often in monitoring programs. Short time series are likely under-powered and potentially misleading.

scholarly journals Utikuma Region Study Area (URSA) – Part 1: Hydrogeological and ecohydrological studies (HEAD)

2016 ◽  
Vol 92 (01) ◽  
pp. 57-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin J. Devito ◽  
Carl Mendoza ◽  
Richard M. Petrone ◽  
Nick Kettridge ◽  
James M. Waddington
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Conceptual Understanding ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Forest Research ◽  
Boreal Plains ◽  
Process Studies ◽  
Hydrogeological Studies ◽  
Western Boreal Forest

The Utikuma Region Study Area (URSA) was initiated to develop spatially explicit modelling tools to predict the cumulative impacts of land use and natural disturbance on the Boreal Plains (BP) ecozone of the Western Boreal Forest. Research comprised several multi-year projects, spanning wet and dry climate periods that combined intensive detailed process studies at seven watersheds with extensive long-term ecohydrological and hydrogeological studies conducted across a 60-km transect representing the range of glaciated landforms characteristic of the sub-humid boreal forest in Alberta. These studies have improved our conceptual understanding and capacity to numerically model how climate and geology influence water and energy flow, and the hydrologic linkages and natural variability of the key processes influencing BP ecosystems. Eco-hydrogeological frameworks have been developed for designing, conducting, interpreting, and extrapolating research results for watershed management and construction across the Boreal Plain ecozone.

scholarly journals A 3500-Year Ice Chemistry Record From The Dominion Range, Antarctica: Linkages Between Climatic Variations and Precipitation Chemistry

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 358-358
Author(s):  
Mary Jo Spencer ◽  
Paul A. Mayewski ◽  
W. Berry Lyons ◽  
Mark S. Twickler ◽  
Pieter Grootes
Keyword(s):  
Oxygen Isotope ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Precipitation Chemistry ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Climatic Forcing ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
Oxygen Isotope Record ◽  
Isotope Record

In 1984 a 200-m ice core was collected from a local accumulation basin in the Dominion Range, Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica. A complete oxygen isotope record has been obtained and a considerable portion of the core has been analyzed in detail for chloride, nitrate, sulfate, and sodium. About half of the chloride is due to sea salt with the remainder originating as gaseous HCl. Nitrate levels have increased markedly over the last 1000 years whereas the levels of the other constituents have remained fairly constant.The oxygen isotope results suggest that this region of Antarctica is responding to long-term global climate forcing as well as to shorter-term climatic variations. This data will be compared with the anion and sodium records in order to determine the effects of climatic forcing on these other records. In particular, nitrate appears to vary in concert with fluctuations in long-term climate. Additionally, variations in each constituent over the 3500 year period will be examined in detail to determine the influence of other processes which affect their concentrations.

scholarly journals Ice-flow and mass changes of Lewis Glacier, Mount Kenya, East Africa, 1986–90: observations and modeling

1992 ◽  
Vol 38 (128) ◽  
pp. 36-42
Author(s):  
Stefan Hastenrath
Keyword(s):  
Time Interval ◽  
Volume Loss ◽  
Climatic Forcing ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Mass Budget ◽  
Modeling And Prediction ◽  
Mass Redistribution ◽  
Glacier Changes ◽  
Flow Velocities

AbstractThe long-term monitoring of Lewis Glacier on Mount Kenya serves as a basis for the study of glacier evolution in response to climatic forcing through modeling of its ice flow and mass budget. Following up on an earlier modeling and prediction study to 1990, this paper examines the ice-mass and flow changes in relation to the net-balance conditions over 1986–90. A model experiment using as climatic forcing the observed 1978–86 vertical net-balance profile yielded a volume loss and slow down of ice flow more drastic than observed during 1986–90. The causes of this discrepancy were examined in successive model experiments. Realistic simulations of mass-budget and thickness changes over 1986–90 are obtained using as input the net-balance forcing for the same period rather than for the preceding 1978–86 interval, and approximate flow velocities. With the same net-balance forcing and a completely stagnant Lewis Glacier, the elimination of mass redistribution by ice flow acts to mitigate the loss of volume and thickness in the upper glacier, and to accentuate it in the lower glacier. Accordingly, the observed 1986–90 net-balance profile along with the 1990 ice-flow velocities provide suitable input for the modeling of Lewis Glacier changes to 1994. Under continuation of the 1986–90 climatic forcing, ice thinning ranging from less than 1 m in the upper glacier to more than 7 m in the lower glacier, and a total volume loss of order 57 × 104 m3, are anticipated over the 1990–94 time interval.

scholarly journals Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Folmer Krikken ◽  
Sophie Lewis ◽  
Nicholas J. Leach ◽  
Flavio Lehner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically-based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index, long-term observations of heat and drought, and eleven large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor two due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. Finally, we find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the ERA5 reanalysis, and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. The trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes and hence also likely underestimated. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean dipole and Southern Annular Mode. These factors are included in the analysis. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some, but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change.

scholarly journals Past African dust inputs in the western Mediterranean area controlled by the complex interaction between the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and total solar irradiance

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 283-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Sabatier ◽  
Marie Nicolle ◽  
Christine Piot ◽  
Christophe Colin ◽  
Maxime Debret ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Saharan Dust ◽  
Climatic Forcing ◽  
African Dust ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Wavelet Analyses

Abstract. North Africa is the largest source of mineral dust on Earth, which has multiple impacts on the climate system; however, our understanding of decadal to centennial changes in African dust emissions over the last few millenniums is limited. Here, we present a high-resolution multiproxy analysis of sediment core from high-elevation Lake Bastani, on the island of Corsica, to reconstruct past African dust inputs to the western Mediterranean area over the last 3150 cal BP. Clay mineralogy with palygorskite and a clay ratio associated with geochemical data allow us to determine that terrigenous fluxes are almost exclusively related to atmospheric dust deposition from the western Sahara and Sahel areas over this period. High-resolution geochemical contents provide a reliable proxy for Saharan dust inputs with long-term (millennial) to short-term (centennial) variations. Millennial variations have been correlated with the long-term southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), with an increase in dust input since 1070 cal BP. This correlation suggests a strong link with the ITCZ and could reflect the increased availability of dust sources to be mobilized with an increase in wind and a decrease in precipitation over western and North Africa. For centennial to decadal variations, wavelet analyses show that since 1070 cal BP, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been the main climatic forcing, with an increase in Saharan dust input during the positive phase, as suggested by previous studies over the last decades. However, when the ITCZ is in a northern position, before 1070 cal BP, wavelet analyses indicate that total solar irradiance (TSI) is the main forcing factor, with an increase in African dust input during low TSI. With climate reanalysis over the instrumental era, during low TSI we observe a significant negative anomaly in pressure over Africa, which is known to increase the dust transport. These two climatic forcing factors (NAO, TSI) modulate Saharan dust inputs to the Mediterranean area at a centennial timescale through changes in wind and transport pathways.

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