scholarly journals Global Stability Properties of the Climate: Melancholia States, Invariant Measures, and Phase Transitions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerio Lucarini
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Large Deviation ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Warm Climate ◽  
Limit Measure ◽  
Weak Noise ◽  
Incoming Solar Radiation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Noise Limit

<p>For a wide range of values of the incoming solar radiation, the Earth features at least two attracting states, which correspond to competing climates. The warm climate is analogous to the present one; the snowball climate features global glaciation and conditions that can hardly support life forms. Paleoclimatic evidences suggest that in past our planet flipped between these two states. The main physical mechanism responsible for such instability is the ice-albedo feedback. Following an idea developed by Eckhardt and co. for the investigation of multistable turbulent flows, we study the global instability giving rise to the snowball/warm multistability in the climate system by identifying the climatic Melancholia state, a saddle embedded in the boundary between the two basins of attraction of the stable climates. We then introduce random perturbations as modulations to the intensity of the incoming solar radiation. We observe noise-induced transitions between the competing basins of attractions. In the weak noise limit, large deviation laws define the invariant measure and the statistics of escape times. By empirically constructing the instantons, we show that the Melancholia states are the gateways for the noise-induced transitions in the weak-noise limit. In the region of multistability, in the zero-noise limit, the measure is supported only on one of the competing attractors. For low (high) values of the solar irradiance, the limit measure is the snowball (warm) climate. The changeover between the two regimes corresponds to a first order phase transition in the system. The framework we propose seems of general relevance for the study of complex multistable systems. Finally, we propose a new method for constructing Melancholia states from direct numerical simulations, thus bypassing the need to use the edge-tracking algorithm.</p><p>Refs.</p><p>V. Lucarini, T. Bodai, Edge States in the Climate System: Exploring Global Instabilities and Critical Transitions, Nonlinearity 30, R32 (2017)</p><p>V. Lucarini, T. Bodai, Transitions across Melancholia States in a Climate Model: Reconciling the Deterministic and Stochastic Points of View, Phys. Rev. Lett. 122,158701 (2019)</p>

Solar radiation in the cloud-free atmosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Wild
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Radiative Effects ◽  
Free Atmosphere ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Radiative Fluxes

<p>The quantification of Earth’s solar radiation budget and its temporal changes is essential for the understanding of the genesis and evolution of climate on our planet. While the solar radiative fluxes in and out of the climate system can be accurately tracked and quantified from space by satellite programs such as CERES or SORCE, the disposition of solar energy within in the climate system is afflicted with larger uncertainties. A better quantification of the solar radiative fluxes not only under cloudy, but also under cloud-free conditions can help to reduce these uncertainties and is essential for example for the determination of cloud radiative effects or for the understanding of  temporal changes in the solar radiative components of the climate system.</p> <p>We combined satellite observations of Top of Atmosphere fluxes with the information contained in surface flux observations and climate models to infer the absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere, which we estimated at 73 Wm<sup>-2</sup> globally under cloud-free conditions (Wild et al. 2019 Clim Dyn). The latest generation of climate models participating in CMIP6 is now able to reproduce this magnitude surprisingly well, whereas in previous climate model  generations the cloud-free atmosphere was typically too transparent for solar radiation, which stated a long-standing modelling issue (Wild 2020 Clim Dyn, Wild et al. 1995 JClim).</p> <p>With respect to changes in solar fluxes, there is increasing evidence that the substantial long-term decadal variations in surface solar radiation known as dimming and brightening occur not only under all-sky, but similarly also under clear-sky conditions (Manara et al. 2016 ACP, Yang et al. 2019 JClim; Wild et al. 2021 GRL). This points to aerosol radiative effects as major factor for the explanation of this phenomenon.</p>

scholarly journals Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.

scholarly journals Transferability Intercomparison: An Opportunity for New Insight on the Global Water Cycle and Energy Budget

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. S. Takle ◽  
J. Roads ◽  
B. Rockel ◽  
W. J. Gutowski ◽  
R. W. Arritt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Global Water Cycle ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Water

A new approach, called transferability intercomparisons, is described for advancing both understanding and modeling of the global water cycle and energy budget. Under this approach, individual regional climate models perform simulations with all modeling parameters and parameterizations held constant over a specific period on several prescribed domains representing different climatic regions. The transferability framework goes beyond previous regional climate model intercomparisons to provide a global method for testing and improving model parameterizations by constraining the simulations within analyzed boundaries for several domains. Transferability intercomparisons expose the limits of our current regional modeling capacity by examining model accuracy on a wide range of climate conditions and realizations. Intercomparison of these individual model experiments provides a means for evaluating strengths and weaknesses of models outside their “home domains” (domain of development and testing). Reference sites that are conducting coordinated measurements under the continental-scale experiments under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Hydrometeorology Panel provide data for evaluation of model abilities to simulate specific features of the water and energy cycles. A systematic intercomparison across models and domains more clearly exposes collective biases in the modeling process. By isolating particular regions and processes, regional model transferability intercomparisons can more effectively explore the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of predictability. A general improvement of model ability to simulate diverse climates will provide more confidence that models used for future climate scenarios might be able to simulate conditions on a particular domain that are beyond the range of previously observed climates.

scholarly journals Pan-spectral observing system simulation experiments of shortwave reflectance and long-wave radiance for climate model evaluation

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 1943-1954 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. R. Feldman ◽  
W. D. Collins ◽  
J. L. Paige
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Spectral Measurements ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Hadley Centre

Abstract. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectrally resolved shortwave reflectances and long-wave radiances describe the response of the Earth's surface and atmosphere to feedback processes and human-induced forcings. In order to evaluate proposed long-duration spectral measurements, we have projected 21st Century changes from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 Emissions Scenario onto shortwave reflectance spectra from 300 to 2500 nm and long-wave radiance spectra from 2000 to 200 cm−1 at 8 nm and 1 cm−1 resolution, respectively. The radiative transfer calculations have been rigorously validated against published standards and produce complementary signals describing the climate system forcings and feedbacks. Additional demonstration experiments were performed with the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5) and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) models for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The calculations contain readily distinguishable signatures of low clouds, snow/ice, aerosols, temperature gradients, and water vapour distributions. The goal of this effort is to understand both how climate change alters reflected solar and emitted infrared spectra of the Earth and determine whether spectral measurements enhance our detection and attribution of climate change. This effort also presents a path forward to understand the characteristics of hyperspectral observational records needed to confront models and inline instrument simulation. Such simulation will enable a diverse set of comparisons between model results from coupled model intercomparisons and existing and proposed satellite instrument measurement systems.

scholarly journals The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1125-1156 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Stier ◽  
J. Feichter ◽  
S. Kinne ◽  
S. Kloster ◽  
E. Vignati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Normal Modes ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Extensive Evaluation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Year 2000

Abstract. The aerosol-climate modelling system ECHAM5-HAM is introduced. It is based on a flexible microphysical approach and, as the number of externally imposed parameters is minimised, allows the application in a wide range of climate regimes. ECHAM5-HAM predicts the evolution of an ensemble of microphysically interacting internally- and externally-mixed aerosol populations as well as their size-distribution and composition. The size-distribution is represented by a superposition of log-normal modes. In the current setup, the major global aerosol compounds sulfate (SU), black carbon (BC), particulate organic matter (POM), sea salt (SS), and mineral dust (DU) are included. The simulated global annual mean aerosol burdens (lifetimes) for the year 2000 are for SU: 0.80 Tg(S) (3.9 days), for BC: 0.11 Tg (5.4 days), for POM: 0.99 Tg (5.4 days), for SS: 10.5 Tg (0.8 days), and for DU: 8.28 Tg (4.6 days). An extensive evaluation with in-situ and remote sensing measurements underscores that the model results are generally in good agreement with observations of the global aerosol system. The simulated global annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) is with 0.14 in excellent agreement with an estimate derived from AERONET measurements (0.14) and a composite derived from MODIS-MISR satellite retrievals (0.16). Regionally, the deviations are not negligible. However, the main patterns of AOD attributable to anthropogenic activity are reproduced.

Stratospheric response to intraseasonal changes in incoming solar radiation

2015 ◽  
Vol 120 (15) ◽  
pp. 7648-7660 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. I. Garfinkel ◽  
V. Silverman ◽  
N. Harnik ◽  
C. Haspel ◽  
Y. Riz
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Incoming Solar Radiation

scholarly journals Heat Treatment of Steel 1.1730 with Concentrated Solar Energy

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 261-270
Author(s):  
Maria Stoicanescu ◽  
Aurel Crisan ◽  
Ioan Milosan ◽  
Mihai Alin Pop ◽  
Jose Rodriguez Garcia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Treatment ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Vertical Axis ◽  
Solar Furnace ◽  
Solid Base ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Concentrated Solar Energy ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents and discusses research conducted with the purpose of developing the use of solar energy in the heat treatment of steels. For this, a vertical axis solar furnace called at Plataforma Solar de Almeria was adapted such as to allow control of the heating and cooling processes of samples made from 1.1730 steel. Thus temperature variation in pre-set points of the heated samples could be monitored in correlation with the working parameters: the level of solar radiation and implicitly the energy used the conditions of sample exposed to solar radiation, and the various protections and cooling mediums.The recorded data allowed establishing the types of treatments applied for certain working conditions. The distribution of hardness, as the representative feature resulting from heat treatment, was analysed on all sides of the treated samples. In correlation with the time-temperature-transformation diagram of 1.1730 steel, the measured values confirmed the possibility of using solar energy in all types of heat treatment applied to this steel. In parallel the efficiency of using solar energy was analysed in comparison to the energy obtained by burning methane gas for the heat treatment for the same set of samples. The analysis considered energy consumption, productivity and the impact on the environment. Thanks to various data obtained through developed experiences, which cover a wide range of thermic treatments applied steels 1.1730 model, we can certainly state that this can be a solid base in using solar energy in applications of thermic treatment at a high industrial level.

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