scholarly journals Influence of Tropical Waves on the Lifecycle of Mesoscale Convective Systems over West Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlon Maranan ◽  
Andreas Schlueter ◽  
Andreas H. Fink ◽  
Peter Knippertz
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Convection Current ◽  
Maturity Stage ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Tropical Waves ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

<p>Rainfall variability over West Africa remains a major challenge for numerical weather prediction (NWP). Due to the largely stochastic and sub-grid nature of tropical convection, current NWP models still fail to provide reliable precipitation forecasts – even for a 1-day leadtime – and are barely more skillful than climatology-based forecasts. Thus, several recent studies have investigated the presumably more predictable influence of tropical waves on environmental conditions for convection and found distinct and coherent (thermo-)dynamical patterns depending on the type and phase of the wave. Of particular interest in this context is the interaction of the wave with the lifecycle of usually westward propagating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which are the major providers of rain in the region and can occasionally even lead to flooding. The exact mechanisms and strength of this interaction are still not entirely known.</p><p>This study combines two recent datasets in a novel way in order to systematically investigate the influence of tropical waves on MCS characteristics and lifecycle. First, MCSs are tracked within northern tropical Africa (20°W-30°E / 2°-15°N) over an 11-year period during the West African rainy season (April-October) using infrared brightness temperature fields provided by the Spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager (SEVIRI). Second, tropical waves are isolated by applying a filtering method in the wave-frequency domain to precipitation data of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) within the 5°-15°N latitude band for the same target period. By combining the two datasets in space and time, the magnitude and phase of each wave is known at every timestep of the MCS tracks, which enables a systematic investigation of MCS characteristics as a function of wave properties.</p><p>Preliminary results suggest that long-lived MCSs (lifetime ≥ 12h) frequently couple with the “wet” phase of high-frequency tropical waves, in particular Kelvin, eastward inertia-gravity (EIG), and African easterly waves (AEW). Showing an enhanced occurrence frequency of MCS initiation, the wet phase of AEWs appears to have strong modulation capabilities during the genesis stage and further accompanies these long-lived MCSs during their entire lifetime. In the case of Kelvin waves and EIGs, the wet phase overlaps only with the intensification and maturity stage of these MCSs as a consequence of opposite directions of movement. Similar coupling patterns also exist for mixed Rossby gravity waves (MRGs), although to a weaker extent. Furthermore, no consistent coupling tendencies with long-lived MCSs are evident for low-frequency waves (Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby wave (ER)), arguably since they act on larger spatio-temporal scales. For short-lived MCSs (lifetime < 6h), the coupling with high-frequency waves is substantially weaker.</p><p>In the future we will also address potential influences of wave-wave interactions on MCSs as well as potential differences in coupling mechanisms between the Guinea Coast region and the Sahel farther north. With increasing efforts in the prediction of tropical waves, this study has the potential to aid the short-term forecasting of MCS development and its lifecycle. This can be of particular importance for the anticipation of extreme rainfall events and subsequent risk assessment in West Africa.</p>

scholarly journals Near-Surface Thermodynamic Sensitivities in Simulated Extreme-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (6) ◽  
pp. 2177-2200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ S. Schumacher ◽  
John M. Peters
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Outflow Boundary

Abstract This study investigates the influences of low-level atmospheric water vapor on the precipitation produced by simulated warm-season midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). In a series of semi-idealized numerical model experiments using initial conditions gleaned from composite environments from observed cases, small increases in moisture were applied to the model initial conditions over a layer either 600 m or 1 km deep. The precipitation produced by the MCS increased with larger moisture perturbations as expected, but the rainfall changes were disproportionate to the magnitude of the moisture perturbations. The experiment with the largest perturbation had a water vapor mixing ratio increase of approximately 2 g kg−1 over the lowest 1 km, corresponding to a 3.4% increase in vertically integrated water vapor, and the area-integrated MCS precipitation in this experiment increased by nearly 60% over the control. The locations of the heaviest rainfall also changed in response to differences in the strength and depth of the convectively generated cold pool. The MCSs in environments with larger initial moisture perturbations developed stronger cold pools, and the convection remained close to the outflow boundary, whereas the convective line was displaced farther behind the outflow boundary in the control and the simulations with smaller moisture perturbations. The high sensitivity of both the amount and location of MCS rainfall to small changes in low-level moisture demonstrates how small moisture errors in numerical weather prediction models may lead to large errors in their forecasts of MCS placement and behavior.

scholarly journals Seasonality and Trends of Drivers of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Southern West Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-87
Author(s):  
Cornelia Klein ◽  
Francis Nkrumah ◽  
Christopher M. Taylor ◽  
Elijah A. Adefisan
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Temperature Gradients ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

AbstractMesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the major source of extreme rainfall over land in the tropics and are expected to intensify with global warming. In the Sahel, changes in surface temperature gradients and associated changes in wind shear have been found to be important for MCS intensification in recent decades. Here we extend that analysis to southern West Africa (SWA) by combining 34 years of cloud-top temperatures with rainfall and reanalysis data. We identify clear trends in intense MCSs since 1983 and their associated atmospheric drivers. We also find a marked annual cycle in the drivers, linked to changes in the convective regime during the progression of the West African monsoon. Before the peak of the first rainy season, we identify a shear regime where increased temperature gradients play a crucial role for MCS intensity trends. From June onward, SWA moves into a less unstable, moist regime during which MCS trends are mainly linked to frequency increase and may be more influenced by total column water vapor. However, during both seasons we find that MCSs with the most intense convection occur in an environment with stronger wind shear, increased low-level humidity, and drier midlevels. Comparing the sensitivity of MCS intensity and peak rainfall to low-level moisture and wind shear conditions preceding events, we find a dominant role for wind shear. We conclude that MCS trends are directly linked to a strengthening of two distinct convective regimes that cause the seasonal change of SWA MCS characteristics. However, the convective environment that ultimately produces the most intense MCSs remains the same.

scholarly journals The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parsons ◽  
Lillo ◽  
Rattray ◽  
Bechtold ◽  
Rodwell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Prediction Systems

Despite significant, steady improvements in the skill of medium-range weather predictionsystems over the past several decades, the accuracy of these forecasts are occasionally very poor.These forecast failures are referred to as “busts” or “dropouts”. The lack of a clear explanationfor bust events limits the development and implementation of strategies designed to reduce theiroccurrence. This study seeks to explore a flow regime where forecast busts occur over Europe inassociation with mesoscale convective systems over North America east of the Rocky Mountains.Our investigation focuses on error growth in the European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasting’s (ECMWF’s) global model during the summer 2015 PECAN (Plains Elevated Convectionat Night) experiment. Observations suggest that a close, but varied interrelationship can occurbetween long-lived, propagating, mesoscale convection systems over the Great Plains and Rossbywave packets. Aloft, the initial error occurs in the ridge of the wave and then propagates downstreamas an amplifying Rossby wave packet producing poor forecasts in middle latitudes and, in somecases, the Arctic. Our results suggest the importance of improving the representation of organizeddeep convection in numerical models, particularly for long-lived mesoscale convective systems thatproduce severe weather and propagate near the jet stream.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of GPS tropospheric estimates to mesoscale convective systems in West Africa

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Nahmani ◽  
Olivier Bock ◽  
Françoise Guichard
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Sampled Data ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Convective Cells

Abstract. This study analyzes the characteristics of GPS tropospheric estimates (Zenith Wet Delays, and gradients, and post-fit phase residuals) during the passage of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) and evaluates their sensitivity to the research-level GPS data processing strategy implemented. Here, we focus on MCS events observed during the monsoon seasons of West Africa. This region is particularly well suited because of the high frequency of occurrence of MCSs in contrasting climatic environments between the Guinean coast and the Sahel. This contrast is well sampled data with the six AMMA GPS stations. Tropospheric estimates for 3-year period (2006–2008), processed with both GAMIT and GIPSY-OASIS software packages, were analyzed and inter-compared. First, the case an MCS which passed over Niamey, Niger, on 11 August 2006, demonstrates a strong impact of the MCS on GPS estimates and post-fit residuals when the GPS signals propagate through convective cells as detected on reflectivity maps from MIT’s C-band Doppler radar. The estimates are also capable of detecting changes in the structure and dynamics of the MCS. The sensitivity is however different depending on the tropospheric modeling approach adopted in the software. With GIPSY-OASIS, the high temporal sampling (5 min) of Zenith Wet Delays and gradients is well suited for detecting the small-scale, short-lived, convective cells, while the post-fit residuals remain quite small. With GAMIT, the lower temporal sampling of the estimated parameters (hourly for Zenith Wet Delays and daily for gradients) is not sufficient to capture the rapid delay variations associated with the passage of the MCS, but the post-fit phase residuals clearly reflect the presence of a strong refractivity anomaly. The results are generalized with a composite analysis of 414 MCS events observed over the 3-year period at the six GPS stations with the GIPSY-OASIS estimates. A systematic peak is found in the Zenith Wet Delays coincident with the cold-pool crossing time associated to the MCSs. The tropospheric gradients are reflecting the path of the MCS propagation (generally from East to West). This study concludes that Zenith Wet Delays, gradients, and post-fit phase residuals provide relevant and complementary information on MCSs passing over or in the vicinity of a GPS station.

scholarly journals Tropical Atlantic Hurricanes, Easterly Waves, and West African Mesoscale Convective Systems

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yves K. Kouadio ◽  
Luiz A. T. Machado ◽  
Jacques Servain
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
West African ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
Atlantic Hurricanes

The relationship between tropical Atlantic hurricanes (Hs), atmospheric easterly waves (AEWs), and West African mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated. It points out atmospheric conditions over West Africa before hurricane formation. The analysis was performed for two periods, June–November in 2004 and 2005, during which 12 hurricanes (seven in 2004, five in 2005) were selected. Using the AEW signature in the 700 hPa vorticity, a backward trajectory was performed to the African coast, starting from the date and position of each hurricane, when and where it was catalogued as a tropical depression. At this step, using the Meteosat-7 satellite dataset, we selected all the MCSs around this time and region, and tracked them from their initiation until their dissipation. This procedure allowed us to relate each of the selected Hs with AEWs and a succession of MCSs that occurred a few times over West Africa before initiation of the hurricane. Finally, a dipole in sea surface temperature (SST) was observed with a positive SST anomaly within the region of H generation and a negative SST anomaly within the Gulf of Guinea. This SST anomaly dipole could contribute to enhance the continental convergence associated with the monsoon that impacts on the West African MCSs formation.

scholarly journals Different Representation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Convection-Permitting and Convection-Parameterizing NWP Models and Its Implications for Large-Scale Forecast Evolution

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsten Peters ◽  
Cathy Hohenegger ◽  
Daniel Klocke
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Western Africa ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
The Difference

Representing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their multi-scale interaction with the large-scale atmospheric dynamics is still a major challenge in state-of-the-art global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This results in potentially defective forecasts of synoptic-scale dynamics in regions of high MCS activity. Here, we quantify this error by comparing simulations performed with a very large-domain, convection-permitting NWP model to two operational global NWP models relying on parameterized convection. We use one month’s worth of daily forecasts over Western Africa and focus on land regions only. The convection-permitting model matches remarkably well the statistics of westward-propagating MCSs compared to observations, while the convection-parameterizing NWP models misrepresent them. The difference in the representation of MCSs in the different models leads to measurably different synoptic-scale forecast evolution as visible in the wind fields at both 850 and 650 hPa, resulting in forecast differences compared to the operational global NWP models. This is quantified by computing the correlation between the differences and the number of MCSs: the larger the number of MCSs, the larger the difference. This fits the expectation from theory on MCS–mean flow interaction. Here, we show that this effect is strong enough to affect daily limited-area forecasts on very large domains.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of GPS tropospheric estimates to mesoscale convective systems in West Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (14) ◽  
pp. 9541-9561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Nahmani ◽  
Olivier Bock ◽  
Françoise Guichard
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Convective Cells

Abstract. This study analyzes the characteristics of GPS tropospheric estimates (zenith wet delays – ZWDs, gradients, and post-fit phase residuals) during the passage of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and evaluates their sensitivity to the research-level GPS data processing strategy implemented. Here, we focus on MCS events observed during the monsoon season of West Africa. This region is particularly well suited for the study of these events due to the high frequency of MCS occurrences in the contrasting climatic environments between the Guinean coast and the Sahel. This contrast is well sampled with data generated by six African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) GPS stations. Tropospheric estimates for a 3-year period (2006–2008), processed with both the GAMIT and GIPSY-OASIS software packages, were analyzed and intercompared. First, the case of a MCS that passed over Niamey, Niger, on 11 August 2006 demonstrates a strong impact of the MCS on GPS estimates and post-fit residuals when the GPS signals propagate through the convective cells as detected on reflectivity maps from the MIT C-band Doppler radar. The estimates are also capable of detecting changes in the structure and dynamics of the MCS. However, the sensitivity is different depending on the tropospheric modeling approach adopted in the software. With GIPSY-OASIS, the high temporal sampling (5 min) of ZWDs and gradients is well suited for detecting the small-scale, short-lived, convective cells, while the post-fit residuals remain quite small. With GAMIT, the lower temporal sampling of the estimated parameters (hourly for ZWDs and daily for gradients) is not sufficient to capture the rapid delay variations associated with the passage of the MCS, but the post-fit phase residuals clearly reflect the presence of a strong refractivity anomaly. The results are generalized with a composite analysis of 414 MCS events observed over the 3-year period at the six GPS stations with the GIPSY-OASIS estimates. A systematic peak is found in the ZWDs coincident with the cold pool crossing time associated with the MCSs. The tropospheric gradients reflect the path of the MCS propagation (generally from east to west). This study concludes that ZWDs, gradients, and post-fit phase residuals provide relevant and complementary information on MCSs passing over or in the vicinity of a GPS station.

scholarly journals On the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Three-Dimensional Simulations

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (3) ◽  
pp. 863-885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew S. Wandishin ◽  
David J. Stensrud ◽  
Steven L. Mullen ◽  
Louis J. Wicker
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Three Dimensional Simulations

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a dominant climatological feature of the central United States and are responsible for a substantial fraction of warm-season rainfall. Yet very little is known about the predictability of MCSs. To help address this situation, a previous paper by the authors examined a series of ensemble MCS simulations using a two-dimensional version of a storm-scale (Δx = 1 km) model. Ensemble member perturbations in the preconvective environment, namely, wind speed, relative humidity, and convective instability, are based on current 24-h forecast errors from the North American Model (NAM). That work is now extended using a full three-dimensional model. Results from the three-dimensional simulations of the present study resemble those found in two dimensions. The model successfully produces an MCS within 100 km of the location of the control run in around 70% of the ensemble runs using perturbations to the preconvective environment consistent with 24-h forecast errors, while reducing the preconvective environment uncertainty to the level of current analysis errors improves the success rate to nearly 85%. This magnitude of improvement in forecasts of environmental conditions would represent a radical advance in numerical weather prediction. The maximum updraft and surface wind forecast uncertainties are of similar magnitude to their two-dimensional counterparts. However, unlike the two-dimensional simulations, in three dimensions, the improvement in the forecast uncertainty of storm features requires the reduction of preconvective environmental uncertainty for all perturbed variables. The MCSs in many of the runs resemble bow echoes, but surface winds associated with these solutions, and the perturbation profiles that produce them, are nearly indistinguishable from the nonbowing solutions, making any conclusions about the bowlike systems difficult.

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