Extreme events on Gulf of Bothnia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simo-Matti Siiriä ◽  
Sam Fredriksson ◽  
Petra Roiha ◽  
Pekka Alenius ◽  
Annu Oikkonen
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Physical Conditions ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Gulf Of Bothnia ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
To Come

<p>The future changes in the physical conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia can have considerable impact on various human activities in the area. In this presentation we concentrate on marine heatwaves and ice conditions. The general changing trends of ice conditions, temperature and salinity give an idea of the changes to come. It is, however, also important to know the possible changes in extremes, and their frequencies in the future. To name a few examples, aquaculture activities can be affected by sudden exceptional warm or cold periods of water, and wind-energy construction benefits from knowing what kind of ice conditions can be expected.</p><p>In the SmartSea project we have made simulations of future scenarios for predicting the possible changes in the conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia. We have simulated a historical control period of 1976-2006 with three different downscaled global circulation models, and use these as comparisons for runs made with same model forcings for the years 2006-2060 with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. These scenarios are used to detect the type and frequency of extreme events, such as marine heatwaves or extreme ice conditions in the control period, and the change of these in the future for both RCP’s.</p>

scholarly journals Crystal balls into the future: are global circulation and water balance models ready?

2016 ◽  
Vol 374 ◽  
pp. 41-51
Author(s):  
Balázs M. Fekete ◽  
Giovanna Pisacane ◽  
Dominik Wisser
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Brief Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Water Management Planning

Abstract. Variabilities and changes due to natural and anthropogenic causes in the water cycle always presented a challenge for water management planning. Practitioners traditionally coped with variabilities in the hydrological processes by assuming stationarity in the probability distributions and attempted to address non-stationarity by revising this probabilistic properties via continued hydro-climatological observations. Recently, this practice was questioned and more reliance on Global Circulation Models was put forward as an alternative for water management plannig. This paper takes a brief assessment of the state of Global Circulation Models (GCM) and their applications by presenting case studies over Global, European and African domains accompanied by literature examples. Our paper demonstrates core deficiencies in GCM based water resources assessments and articulates the need for improved Earth system monitoring that is essential not only for water managers, but to aid the improvements of GCMs in the future.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on infestations of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) on date palms in Oman

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e5545 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farzin Shabani ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Rashid Hamdan Saif al Shidi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Regression Tree ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Boosted Regression Tree ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Palm Trees ◽  
The Future ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

Climate change has determined shifts in distributions of species and is likely to affect species in the future. Our study aimed to (i) demonstrate the linkage between spatial climatic variability and the current and historical Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) distribution in Oman and (ii) model areas becoming highly suitable for the pest in the future. The Dubas bug is a pest of date palm trees that can reduce the crop yield by 50% under future climate scenarios in Oman. Projections were made in three species distribution models; generalized linear model, maximum entropy, boosted regression tree using of four global circulation models (GCMs) (a) HadGEM2, (b) CCSM4, (c) MIROC5 and (d) HadGEM2-AO, under four representative concentration pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. We utilized the most commonly used threshold of maximum sensitivity + specificity for classifying outputs. Results indicated that northern Oman is currently at great risk of Dubas bug infestations (highly suitable climatically) and the infestations level will remain high in 2050 and 2070. Other non-climatic integrated pest management methods may be greater value than climatic parameters for monitoring infestation levels, and may provide more effective strategies to manage Dubas bug infestations in Oman. This would ensure the continuing competitiveness of Oman in the global date fruit market and preserve national yields.

Fluxus and the Absurd (1961–62)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin R. Levy
Keyword(s):  
Second Life ◽  
The Self ◽  
Major Work ◽  
The Future ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Impact

After John Cage’s 1958 Darmstadt lectures, many European composers developed an interest in absurdity and artistic provocation. Although Ligeti’s fascination with Cage and his association with the Fluxus group was brief, the impact it had on his composition was palpable and lasting. A set of conceptual works, The Future of Music, Trois Bagatelles, and Poème symphonique for one hundred metronomes, fall clearly into the Fluxus model, even as the last has taken on a second life as a serious work. This spirit, however, can also be seen in the self-satire of Fragment and the drama and irony of Volumina, Aventures, and Nouvelles Aventures. The sketches for Aventures not only show the composer channeling this humor into a major work but also prove to be a fascinating repository of ideas that Ligeti would reuse in the years to come.

scholarly journals A Sense of Presence: Mediating an American Apocalypse

Religions ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Rachel Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Religious Practice ◽  
Religious Institutions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Sense Of Presence ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
To Come

Here I build upon Robert Orsi’s work by arguing that we can see presence—and the longing for it—at work beyond the obvious spaces of religious practice. Presence, I propose, is alive and well in mediated apocalypticism, in the intense imagination of the future that preoccupies those who consume its narratives in film, games, and role plays. Presence is a way of bringing worlds beyond into tangible form, of touching them and letting them touch you. It is, in this sense, that Michael Hoelzl and Graham Ward observe the “re-emergence” of religion with a “new visibility” that is much more than “simple re-emergence of something that has been in decline in the past but is now manifesting itself once more.” I propose that the “new awareness of religion” they posit includes the mediated worlds that enchant and empower us via deeply immersive fandoms. Whereas religious institutions today may be suspicious of presence, it lives on in the thick of media fandoms and their material manifestations, especially those forms that make ultimate promises about the world to come.

The Politics of Proximity: The Italian Response to the Albanian Crisis

1998 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 203-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ted Perlmutter
Keyword(s):  
United Nations ◽  
Popular Opinion ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Humanitarian Mission ◽  
Neighboring Country ◽  
The Future ◽  
The United Nations ◽  
To Come ◽  
First Time

This article focuses on the apparent disjunction between the Italian reluctance to allow Albanians to come as refugees and Italy's enthusiastic leadership of the United Nations military-humanitarian mission. It explains the Italian response both in terms of Italian popular opinion regarding Albanians and Italy's concern for the impression on Europe that its politics would make. Italy's leadership of the mission represents the first time a medium-sized power has assisted a neighboring country with whom it has had deep historical connections. The conclusion argues that such proximate interventions are likely to increase in the future, and spells out the implications of the Italian case.

Church Time and Astrological Time in the Waning Middle Ages

2002 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 117-132
Author(s):  
Hilary M. Carey
Keyword(s):  
Middle Ages ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
The Past ◽  
Adam And Eve ◽  
Primary Qualities ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Scientific Claims ◽  
To Come

Time, according to medieval theologians and philosophers, was experienced in radically different ways by God and by his creation. Indeed, the obligation to dwell in time, and therefore to have no sure knowledge of what was to come, was seen as one of the primary qualities which marked the post-lapsarian state. When Adam and Eve were cast out of the garden of delights, they entered a world afflicted with the changing of the seasons, in which they were obliged to work and consume themselves with the needs of the present day and the still unknown dangers of the next. Medieval concerns about the use and abuse of time were not merely confined to anxiety about the present, or awareness of seized or missed opportunities in the past. The future was equally worrying, in particular the extent to which this part of time was set aside for God alone, or whether it was permissible to seek to know the future, either through revelation and prophecy, or through science. In the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries, the scientific claims of astrology to provide a means to explain the outcome of past and future events, circumventing God’s distant authority, became more and more insistent. This paper begins by examining one skirmish in this larger battle over the control of the future.

Feminism, Modern Philosophy and the Future of Legitimacy of International Constitutionalism

2009 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-245
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Yahyaoui Krivenko
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
International Law ◽  
International Human Rights Law ◽  
Human Rights Protection ◽  
Rights Protection ◽  
Adequate Understanding ◽  
The Future ◽  
Migrants Rights ◽  
To Come ◽  
International Constitutionalism

AbstractInternational constitutionalism relates to processes of limiting traditionally unrestricted powers of states as ultimate subjects, law-makers and law-enforcers of international law. Human rights occupy a central, but very confusing and confused role in the theorisation of international constitutionalism. If feminist scholars have criticised the inadequacies, shortcomings and gaps of international law of human rights at least since 1991, the doctrine of international law theorising constitutionalisation of international law until now has remained blind to these critiques idealising human rights and often using them as the ultimate legitimating factor. Thus, legitimacy and legality become confused and the distinction between them blurred in the doctrine of international constitutionalism. This in turn creates a danger of failure of the constitutionalists project itself, as it will serve to reinforce existing inadequacies and gaps in human rights protection. To illustrate this argument, I discuss some examples related to the protection of women's and migrants' rights. In order to avoid this dangerous development, I argue that international lawyers theorising international constitutionalism shall adopt an adequate, inclusive notion of legitimacy. In order to develop this adequate understanding of legitimacy, they should first take seriously feminist and other critiques of international human rights law and international law more generally. In the final parts of this article I develop my own more detailed proposals on the future of legitimacy and international constitutionalism. In doing so, I draw on the 'self-correcting learning process' developed in the writings of Jürgen Habermas, 'democracy to come' and more general views on the nature of sovereignty and human rights expressed by Jacques Derrida, as well as Levinasian 'responsibility-to-and-for-the-Other'.

Ending War, Building Peace

2011 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Innocent People ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
To Come ◽  
Political Decisions

The US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq led to more than a million people being killed, displaced five million from their homes and shattered countless more lives. It was a colossal, premeditated war crime. Leaders of governments in the countries responsible for this enormity seek to minimise and forget about it: to ‘move on’. We must not let them, because they want to retain the option of making the same political decisions, condemning more innocent people to death, somewhere else in the future. Contributors to this book are united in saying: never again. They examine how and why this unmitigated disaster for humanity was allowed to happen, and how we can prevent it being repeated. And they imagine more peaceful ways to engage with conflicts and crises in times to come. It raises a question: what will you do to help end war and build peace?

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document