Power Prediction of Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) Using Machine Learning Algorithm-Based Paradigm

Power prediction is important not only for the smooth and economic operation of a combined cycle power plant (CCPP) but also to avoid technical issues such as power outages. In this work, we propose to utilize machine learning algorithms to predict the hourly-based electrical power generated by a CCPP. For this, the generated power is considered a function of four fundamental parameters which are relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, ambient temperature, and exhaust vacuum. The measurements of these parameters and their yielded output power are used to train and test the machine learning models. The dataset for the proposed research is gathered over a period of six years and taken from a standard and publicly available machine learning repository. The utilized machine algorithms are K -nearest neighbors (KNN), gradient-boosted regression tree (GBRT), linear regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), and deep neural network (DNN). We report state-of-the-art performance where GBRT outperforms not only the utilized algorithms but also all the previous methods on the given CCPP dataset. It achieves the minimum values of root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.58 and absolute error (AE) of 1.85.

Meteorological Normalisation Using Boosted Regression Trees to Estimate the Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on Air Quality Levels

The global COVID-19 pandemic that began in late December 2019 led to unprecedented lockdowns worldwide, providing a unique opportunity to investigate in detail the impacts of restricted anthropogenic emissions on air quality. A wide range of strategies and approaches exist to achieve this. In this paper, we use the “deweather” R package, based on Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models, first to remove the influences of meteorology and emission trend patterns from NO, NO2, PM10 and O3 data series, and then to calculate the relative changes in air pollutant levels in 2020 with respect to the previous seven years (2013–2019). Data from a northern Spanish region, Cantabria, with all types of monitoring stations (traffic, urban background, industrial and rural) were used, dividing the calendar year into eight periods according to the intensity of government restrictions. The results showed mean reductions in the lockdown period above −50% for NOx, around −10% for PM10 and below −5% for O3. Small differences were found between the relative changes obtained from normalised data with respect to those from observations. These results highlight the importance of developing an integrated policy to reduce anthropogenic emissions and the need to move towards sustainable mobility to ensure safer air quality levels, as pre-existing concentrations in some cases exceed the safe threshold.

Nongrowing Season CO2 Emissions Determine the Distinct Carbon Budgets of Two Alpine Wetlands on the Northeastern Qinghai—Tibet Plateau

Alpine wetlands sequester large amounts of soil carbon, so it is vital to gain a full understanding of their land-atmospheric CO2 exchanges and how they contribute to regional carbon neutrality; such an understanding is currently lacking for the Qinghai—Tibet Plateau (QTP), which is undergoing unprecedented climate warming. We analyzed two-year (2018–2019) continuous CO2 flux data, measured by eddy covariance techniques, to quantify the carbon budgets of two alpine wetlands (Luanhaizi peatland (LHZ) and Xiaobohu swamp (XBH)) on the northeastern QTP. At an 8-day scale, boosted regression tree model-based analysis showed that variations in growing season CO2 fluxes were predominantly determined by atmospheric water vapor, having a relative contribution of more than 65%. Variations in nongrowing season CO2 fluxes were mainly controlled by site (categorical variable) and topsoil temperature (Ts), with cumulative relative contributions of 81.8%. At a monthly scale, structural equation models revealed that net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) at both sites was regulated more by gross primary productivity (GPP), than by ecosystem respiration (RES), which were both in turn directly controlled by atmospheric water vapor. The general linear model showed that variations in nongrowing season CO2 fluxes were significantly (p < 0.001) driven by the main effect of site and Ts. Annually, LHZ acted as a net carbon source, and NEE, GPP, and RES were 41.5 ± 17.8, 631.5 ± 19.4, and 673.0 ± 37.2 g C/(m2 year), respectively. XBH behaved as a net carbon sink, and NEE, GPP, and RES were –40.9 ± 7.5, 595.1 ± 15.4, and 554.2 ± 7.9 g C/(m2 year), respectively. These distinctly different carbon budgets were primarily caused by the nongrowing season RES being approximately twice as large at LHZ (p < 0.001), rather than by other equivalent growing season CO2 fluxes (p > 0.10). Overall, variations in growing season CO2 fluxes were mainly controlled by atmospheric water vapor, while those of the nongrowing season were jointly determined by site attributes and soil temperatures. Our results highlight the different carbon functions of alpine peatland and alpine swampland, and show that nongrowing season CO2 emissions should be taken into full consideration when upscaling regional carbon budgets. Current and predicted marked winter warming will directly stimulate increased CO2 emissions from alpine wetlands, which will positively feedback to climate change.

Does Rural Production–Living–Ecological Spaces Have a Preference for Regional Endowments? A Case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China

Production–Living–Ecological Space (PLES) is the functional projection of sustainable development in territory spatial planning. Its rational layout has become the most important task for developing countries to enhance ecological awareness and achieve sustainable goals. This study took the rural areas of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) as an example to analyze the relationship by means of quantitative cumulation between regional endowments (natural factors, location and facilities) and PLES to figure out the preference mechanism. The Boosted Regression Tree model (BRT) was used to obtain the contribution rate of factors and the internal marginal effect between 1980~2018. Our conclusions are as follows: Living space (LS) enjoyed the highest advantage of regional endowment level, followed by production space (PS). Except for the distance to water, other indicators were significantly different in the PLES, and the suitable range of various types was expanded from LS to PS and ecological space (ES). During the transfer, elevation had a universal effect. The process of increasing naturalness was affected by the distance of high-level urban areas, which verified the continuous effect of Chinese ecological civilization. This study clarified the selectivity of regional endowments to PLES, which will greatly guide the direction of regional territory spatial planning and the next step of regional sustainable development.

How do people in the “Land of Hornbills” perceive Hornbills?

Summary Sarawak is known as the “Land of Hornbills”, having the Rhinoceros Hornbill as the state emblem and with hornbills also being closely associated with important cultural symbols and beliefs among various local communities. However, up to date there is limited understanding on the perception, awareness, and beliefs of local communities towards hornbills. This paper aims to describe the aforementioned factors in western Sarawak, in hope of acquiring the socio-cultural information needed to fill the gap, and to clarify misconceptions towards hornbill conservation efforts in Sarawak. Data collection was accomplished using Open Data Kit (ODK). A total of 500 respondents were approached in five administrative divisions in western Sarawak, namely Kuching, Samarahan, Serian, Sri Aman, and Betong. The questionnaire was carefully formulated to control acquiescence bias that might arise. Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) modelling was conducted to evaluate the strongest demographic predictor variables influencing the answers and word clouds were used to visualise hornbill species by the local community. Sarawakians acknowledge the importance of hornbills as a cultural symbol (95%) despite hornbills being used for food, medicine, and decoration. Whilst this study describes the perceptions of hornbills in local communities, a comprehensive assessment throughout Sarawak is recommended for better understanding of hornbill importance in other communities. Such socio-cultural information is vital to ensure the success of conservation efforts and for effective management strategies of hornbills within Sarawak.

Recent warming reverses forty-year decline in Catastrophic lake drainage and hastens Gradual lake drainage across northern Alaska

Lakes represent as much as ~25% of the total land surface area in lowland permafrost regions. Though decreasing lake area has become a widespread phenomenon in permafrost regions, our ability to forecast future patterns of lake drainage spanning gradients of space and time remain limited. Here, we modeled the drivers of gradual (steady declining lake area) and catastrophic (temporally abrupt decrease in lake area) lake drainage using 45 years of Landsat observations (i.e., 1975-2019) across 32,690 lakes spanning climate and environmental gradients across northern Alaska. We mapped lake area using supervised support vector machine classifiers and object based image analyses using five-year Landsat image composites spanning ~388,968 km2. Drivers of lake drainage were determined with boosted regression tree (BRT) models, using both static (e.g., lake morphology, proximity to drainage gradient) and dynamic predictor variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, wildfire). Over the past 45 years, gradual drainage decreased lake area between 10-16%, but rates varied over time as the 1990s recorded the highest rates of gradual lake area losses associated with warm periods. Interestingly, the number of catastrophically drained lakes progressively decreased at a rate of ~37% decade-1 from 1975-1979 (102 to 273 lakes draining year-1) to 2010-2014 (3 to 8 lakes draining year-1). However this 40 year negative trend was reversed during the most recent time-period (2015-2019), with observations of catastrophic drainage among the highest on record (i.e., 100 to 250 lakes draining year-1), the majority of which occurred in northwestern Alaska. Gradual drainage processes were driven by lake morphology, summer air and lake temperature, snow cover, active layer depth, and the thermokarst lake settlement index (R2 adj=0.42, CV=0.35, p<0.0001), whereas, catastrophic drainage was driven by the thawing season length, total precipitation, permafrost thickness, and lake temperature (R2 adj=0.75, CV=0.67, p<0.0001). Models forecast a continued decline in lake area across northern Alaska by 15 to 21% by 2050. However these estimates are conservative, as the anticipated amplitude of future climate change were well-beyond historical variability and thus insufficient to forecast abrupt “catastrophic” drainage processes. Results highlight the urgency to understand the potential ecological responses and feedbacks linked with ongoing Arctic landscape reorganization.

Ensemble ecological niche modeling of West Nile virus probability in Florida

Ecological Niche Modeling is a process by which spatiotemporal, climatic, and environmental data are analyzed to predict the distribution of an organism. Using this process, an ensemble ecological niche model for West Nile virus habitat prediction in the state of Florida was developed. This model was created through the weighted averaging of three separate machine learning models—boosted regression tree, random forest, and maximum entropy—developed for this study using sentinel chicken surveillance and remote sensing data. Variable importance differed among the models. The highest variable permutation value included mean dewpoint temperature for the boosted regression tree model, mean temperature for the random forest model, and wetlands focal statistics for the maximum entropy mode. Model validation resulted in area under the receiver curve predictive values ranging from good [0.8728 (95% CI 0.8422–0.8986)] for the maximum entropy model to excellent [0.9996 (95% CI 0.9988–1.0000)] for random forest model, with the ensemble model predictive value also in the excellent range [0.9939 (95% CI 0.9800–0.9979]. This model should allow mosquito control districts to optimize West Nile virus surveillance, improving detection and allowing for a faster, targeted response to reduce West Nile virus transmission potential.

Influence of the Environment on the Distribution and Quality of Gentiana dahurica Fisch.

Gentiana dahurica Fisch. is a characteristic medicinal plant found in Inner Mongolia, China. To meet the increase in market demand and promote the development of medicinal plant science, we explored the influence of the environment on its distribution and the quantity of its active compounds (loganic acid and 6’-O-β-D-glucosylgentiopicroside) to find suitable cultivation areas for G. dahurica. Based on the geographical distribution of G. dahurica in Inner Mongolia and the ecological factors that affect its growth, identified from the literature and field visits, a boosted regression tree (BRT) was used to model ecologically suitable areas in the region. The relationship between the content of each of active compound in the plant and ecological factors was also established for Inner Mongolia using linear regression. The results showed that elevation and soil type had the most significant influence on the distribution of G. dahurica—their relative contribution was 30.188% and 28.947%, respectively. The factors that had the greatest impact on the distribution of high-quality G. dahurica were annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and temperature seasonality. The results of BRT and linear regression modeling showed that suitable areas for high-quality G. dahurica included eastern Ordos, southern Baotou, Hohhot, southern Wulanchabu, southern Xilin Gol, and central Chifeng. However, there were no significant correlations between the contents of loganic acid and 6’-O-β-D-glucosylgentiopicroside and the ecological factors. This study explored the influence of the environment on the growth and quantity of active compounds in G. dahurica to provide guidance for coordinating the development of medicinal plant science.

Property valuation by machine learning for the Norwegian real estate market

We train a machine learning model on large data set for predicting property values in the Norwegian real estate market. Our model is a gradient boosted regression tree. The data set is the largest market data set of properties in Norway considered in the research literature. We achieve state of the art accuracy. A large scale market data set of real estate properties is collected from sales and rental ads on publicly accessible internet sites. The property advertisements show property features and appraisal values made by real estate brokers. We train a gradient boosted regression tree model on selected features of the data set. This is a multivariate regression model built with supervised learning. We do 5-fold cross validation to assess the accuracy and robustness of the model. The gradient boosted regression tree models are already known to give the best prediction accuracy on real estate price valuations. We achieve state of the art pre- diction accuracy using a minimal feature set and only publicly and freely available sales advertisement data. The novelty of our work lies in the fact that we use a minimal feature set in our model, and we have the largest data set in the research literature, and moreover we have used only freely and publicly accessible data which are simple to obtain. This shows that useful estimation models with high accuracy can be built with quite simple resources.