A Modified Approach of Extracting Landfast Ice Edge Based on Sentinel-1A InSAR Coherence Image in the Gulf of Bothnia

Landfast ice is an integral component of the coastal ecosystem. Extracting the edge and mapping the extent of landfast ice are one of the main methods for studying ice changes. In this work, a standardized process for extracting landfast ice edge in the Baltic Sea using the InSAR coherence image is established with Sentinel-1 radar data and InSAR technology. A modified approach combining multiscale segmentation and morphological erosion is then proposed to provide a reliable way to extract landfast ice edge. Firstly, the coherence image is obtained using InSAR technology. Then, the edge is separated and extracted with the modified approach. The modified approach is essentially a four-step procedure involving image segmentation, median filter, morphological erosion, and rejection of small patches. Finally, the full extent of landfast ice can be obtained using floodfill algorithm. Multiple InSAR image pairs of Sentinel-1A acquired from 2018 to 2019 are utilized to successfully extract the landfast ice edge in the Gulf of Bothnia. The results show that the landfast ice edge and the extents obtained by the proposed approach are visually consistent with those shown in the ice chart issued by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) over a coastline length of 345 km. The mean distance between land–water boundary and the coastline issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is 109.1 m. The modified approach obviously preserves more details in local edge than the reference method. The experimental results show that the modified approach proposed in this paper can extract the edge and map the extent of landfast ice more accurately and quickly, and is therefore expected to contribute to the further understanding and analyzing the changes of landfast ice in the future.

Refined estimates of water transport through the Åland Sea, Baltic Sea

Water exchange through the Åland Sea, Baltic Sea, greatly affects the environmental conditions in the neighbouring Gulf of Bothnia. Recently observed changes in the eutrophication status of the Gulf of Bothnia may be connected to changing nutrient fluxes through the Åland Sea. Pathways and variability of sub-halocline northward-bound flows towards the Bothnian Sea are important for these studies. While the general nature of the water exchange is known, that knowledge is based on only a few studies that are somewhat limited in details. Notably, no high-resolution modelling studies of water exchange in the Åland Sea area have been published. In this study, we present a configuration of the NEMO 3D hydrodynamic model for the Åland Sea-Archipelago Sea area at around 500 m horizontal resolution. We then use it to study the water exchange in the Åland Sea. We first ran the model for the years 2013–2017 and validated the results, with a focus on the simulated current fields. We found that the model reproduced current direction distributions and layered structure of currents in the water column with reasonably good accuracy. Next, we used the model to calculate volume transports across several transects in the Åland Sea. These calculations provided new detail of water transport in the area. Time series of monthly mean volume transports showed a consistent northward transport in the deep layer. In the surface layer there was more variability: while net transport was towards the south, in several years some months in late summer or early autumn showed net transport to the north. Furthermore, based on our model calculations, it seems that dynamics in the Lågskär Deep are more complex than has been previously understood. While Lågskär Deep is the primary route of deep water exchange, still a significant volume of deep water enters the Åland Sea through the depression west of the Lågskär Deep. Better spatial and temporal coverage of current measurements is needed to further refine the understanding of water exchange in the area.

Wave climate change in the Gulf of Bothnia

<p>Wave climate change in the Gulf of Bothnia in 2030–2059 was investigated using regional wave climate projections. For the simulations we used wave model WAM. As the atmospheric forcing for the wave model we had three global climate scenarios (HADGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM, EC-EARTH) downscaled with RCA4-NEMO regional model. The ice concentration for the wave model was obtained from NEMO ocean model simulations using the same atmospheric forcing. We used both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. The spatial resolution of the simulation data was 1.8 km, enabling detailed analyses of the wave properties near the coast. From the simulation data we calculated statistics and return levels of significant wave heights using extreme value analysis, and assessed the projected changes in the wave climate in the Gulf of Bothnia. The projected increase in the significant wave heights is mainly due to the decreasing ice cover, especially in the Bothnian Bay. Projected changes in the most prevalent wind direction impacts the spatial pattern of the wave heights in the Bothnian Sea.</p>

21st century nutrient and oxygen dynamics in the Gulf of Bothnia

<p>The Gulf of Bothnia is the only sub-basin of the Baltic Sea with no serious eutrophication. However, long-term observations have shown degradation of the water quality over the past years, indicating warning signals for the future. Here, we use a high resolution ocean circulation model including biogeochemistry to study 21st century nutrient and oxygen changes in the Gulf of Bothnia. We analyze ensembles for 5 different scenarios; a historical (1975-2005) and 4 future projections (2006-2100). For the projections, two atmospheric <em>p</em>CO<sub>2 </sub>trajectories are used, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and two settings for nutrient loads are applied to each RCP scenario: one following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) and the other assuming business as usual. We also test a historical scenario but with no local nutrient loads to better understand the biogeochemical influence of the lateral open boundary. The comparison of observations with the historical scenario shows that oxygen trends are well captured by the model despite a small bias in nutrient concentrations. Our results suggest that the Bothnian Bay is more sensitive to river loads than the Bothnian Sea, which is primarily affected by the inflows from the Baltic proper. All future projections show a decrease in phosphate concentrations and an increase in nitrate concentrations due to lower/higher input of phosphate/nitrate from the Baltic proper. Oxygen concentrations in bottom waters of the Gulf of Bothnia are not susceptible to become hypoxic in the future. However, when business as usual is applied for nutrient loads, oxygen concentrations decrease significantly over the entire future period and short episodes of low oxygen conditions in bottom waters (with less than 5 ml O<sub>2</sub>/l) become more frequent and more pronounced in the Bothnian Sea, especially towards the end of the century.</p><p> </p>

Extreme events on Gulf of Bothnia

<p>The future changes in the physical conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia can have considerable impact on various human activities in the area. In this presentation we concentrate on marine heatwaves and ice conditions. The general changing trends of ice conditions, temperature and salinity give an idea of the changes to come. It is, however, also important to know the possible changes in extremes, and their frequencies in the future. To name a few examples, aquaculture activities can be affected by sudden exceptional warm or cold periods of water, and wind-energy construction benefits from knowing what kind of ice conditions can be expected.</p><p>In the SmartSea project we have made simulations of future scenarios for predicting the possible changes in the conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia. We have simulated a historical control period of 1976-2006 with three different downscaled global circulation models, and use these as comparisons for runs made with same model forcings for the years 2006-2060 with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. These scenarios are used to detect the type and frequency of extreme events, such as marine heatwaves or extreme ice conditions in the control period, and the change of these in the future for both RCP’s.</p>

Changes in age and maturity of anadromous whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) in the northern Baltic Sea from 1998 to 2014

The maturation of anadromous whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) was analysed from samples taken from commercial coastal fishing in 1998–2014 in the Gulf of Bothnia. Whitefish matured at a younger age from year to year. The proportion of older (5–12 sea years) mature males decreased from 79% to 39% in the northern Gulf of Bothnia (66°N–64°N) and from 76% to 14% in southern (64°N–60°30'N) during the study period. At the same time, the proportion of young males (2–4 sea years) increased. Whitefish matured younger: the proportion of mature fish at age four increased in both the north and south among females (13% → 98%; 6% → 85%) and males (68% → 99%; 29% → 89%). The catch length of four-year-old fish increased during the study period in both sexes. In contrast, the length of six-year-old females decreased from year to year. Sea surface temperatures increased during the study period, and were possibly associated with a decrease in the age of maturation and faster growth.

Enrichment of trace metals from acid sulfate soils in sediments of the Kvarken Archipelago, eastern Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea

Rivers draining the acid sulfate soils of western Finland are known to deliver large amounts of trace metals with detrimental environmental consequences to the recipient estuaries in the eastern Gulf of Bothnia, northern Baltic Sea. However, the distribution of these metals in the coastal sea area and the relevant metal transport mechanisms have been less studied. This study investigates the spatial and temporal distribution of metals in sediments at nine sites in the Kvarken Archipelago, which is the recipient system of Laihianjoki and Sulvanjoki rivers that are impacted by acid sulfate soils. The contents of Cd, Co, Cu, La, Mn, Ni, and Zn increased in the cores during the 1960s and 1970s as a consequence of intensive artificial drainage of the acid sulfate soil landscape. Metal deposition has remained at high levels since the 1980s. The metal enrichment in sea floor sediments is currently visible at least 25 km seaward from the river mouths. Comparison with sediment quality guidelines shows that the metal contents are very likely to cause detrimental effects on marine biota more than 12 km out from the river mouths. The dynamic sedimentary environment of the shallow archipelago makes these sediments potential future sources of metals to the ecosystem. Finally, the strong association of metals and nutrients in the same sediment grain size class of 2–6 µm suggests that the transformation of dissolved organic matter and metals to metal–organic aggregates at the river mouths is the key mechanism of seaward trace metal transport, in addition to co-precipitation with Mn oxyhydroxides identified in previous studies. The large share of terrestrial organic carbon in the total organic C in these sediments (interquartile range – 39 %–48 %) highlights the importance of riverine organic matter supply. These findings are important for the estimation of environmental risks and the management of biologically sensitive coastal sea ecosystems.

Kwenowie – (nie)zapomniana mniejszość

The Kven People have lived in the North Cape area since ancient times. The first account of the Cwenas is to be found in Ohthere’s of Hålogaland account, which dates back to 890 C.E., and describes the existence of peoples living in Cwena land in the north of Sweden. Kven people are said to be descendants of Finnish peasants and fishermen who emigrated from the northern parts of Finland and Sweden to Northern Norway. The tax books from the sixteenth century indicate clearly that the Kven people lived permanently in the area of the Gulf of Bothnia. The Kvens were well integrated, and perceived as a valuable workforce. Still, tempestuous Russian history combined with Finnish dependency on the Russian Empire backfired on the perception of the Kvens in Norway, as they were seen as a menace to national security. As a result, they were made to go through a very strict assimilation process from the nineteenth century onwards. After WWII, their situation became somewhat better, but it still left much to be desired, since they were thought to collaborate with the USSR. The wind of change started to blow in 1996, when the Kvens were granted minority status in Norway, and in 2005 the Kven language was recognized as a minority language in Norway.