Ocean heat transport as a driver of sea ice extent in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jake Aylmer ◽  
David Ferreira ◽  
Daniel Feltham
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The Mean

<p>Estimating long-term projections of sea ice extent is a key part of understanding the possible future climate state. This is hampered by uncertainties within and across comprehensive climate models, and the relative importance and nature of contributing factors are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the role of ocean and atmospheric forcing on sea ice on multidecadal time scales.</p><p>Pre-industrial control simulations of 19 CMIP6 models are analysed. Sea ice extent is negatively correlated with ocean heat transport (OHT), and positively correlated with atmospheric heat (moist-static energy) transport (AHT), in both hemispheres. In most models, increased OHT into the Arctic enhances surface fluxes in the Atlantic sector just south of the sea ice edge, which in turn increases the AHT convergence at higher latitudes. In the southern ocean, increased OHT directly increases the mean ocean–ice heat flux while AHT plays no direct role. Sensitivities of the sea ice cover to OHT are consistent with predictions from an idealised energy balance model (EBM), which is fitted to each model in turn. This shows that the sensitivities are constrained by atmospheric radiation parameters and the mean surface temperature response, with no explicit dependence on ocean parameters. These results are a step towards quantifying the effect of ocean biases on sea ice uncertainty in climate projections.</p>

scholarly journals Ocean Heat Transport as a Cause for Model Uncertainty in Projected Arctic Warming

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 1451-1460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Mahlstein ◽  
Reto Knutti
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Future Warming

Abstract The Arctic climate is governed by complex interactions and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere, ocean, and solar radiation. One of its characteristic features, the Arctic sea ice, is very vulnerable to anthropogenically caused warming. Production and melting of sea ice is influenced by several physical processes. The authors show that the northward ocean heat transport is an important factor in the simulation of the sea ice extent in the current general circulation models. Those models that transport more energy to the Arctic show a stronger future warming, in the Arctic as well as globally. Larger heat transport to the Arctic, in particular in the Barents Sea, reduces the sea ice cover in this area. More radiation is then absorbed during summer months and is radiated back to the atmosphere in winter months. This process leads to an increase in the surface temperature and therefore to a stronger polar amplification. The models that show a larger global warming agree better with the observed sea ice extent in the Arctic. In general, these models also have a higher spatial resolution. These results suggest that higher resolution and greater complexity are beneficial in simulating the processes relevant in the Arctic and that future warming in the high northern latitudes is likely to be near the upper range of model projections, consistent with recent evidence that many climate models underestimate Arctic sea ice decline.

scholarly journals Autumn Arctic Pacific Sea Ice Dipole as a Source of Predictability for Subsequent Spring Barents Sea Ice Condition

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 787-804
Author(s):  
Yu-Chiao Liang ◽  
Young-Oh Kwon ◽  
Claude Frankignoul
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Highly Correlated

AbstractThis study uses observational and reanalysis datasets in 1980–2016 to show a close connection between a boreal autumn sea ice dipole in the Arctic Pacific sector and sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea (BS) during the following spring. The September–October Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole variations are highly correlated with the subsequent April–May BS sea ice variations (r = 0.71). The strong connection between the regional sea ice variabilities across the Arctic uncovers a new source of predictability for spring BS sea ice prediction at 7-month lead time. A cross-validated linear regression prediction model using the Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole with 7-month lead time is demonstrated to have significant prediction skills with 0.54–0.85 anomaly correlation coefficients. The autumn sea ice dipole, manifested as sea ice retreat in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and expansion in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, is primarily forced by preceding atmospheric shortwave anomalies from late spring to early autumn. The spring BS sea ice increases are mostly driven by an ocean-to-sea ice heat flux reduction in preceding months, associated with reduced horizontal ocean heat transport into the BS. The dynamical linkage between the two regional sea ice anomalies is suggested to involve positive stratospheric polar cap anomalies during autumn and winter, with its center slowly moving toward Greenland. The migration of the stratospheric anomalies is followed in midwinter by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the troposphere, leading to reduced ocean heat transport into the BS and sea ice extent increase.

The role of ocean heat transport from the Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean on sea ice variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Schroeder ◽  
Danny Feltham
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Atmospheric Processes

<p>The decrease of Arctic sea ice affects the future climate in the Arctic and beyond. Therefore, it is important to understand the drivers of sea ice variability and trend. Previous model studies found that the summer sea ice is mainly driven by atmospheric processes (incoming radiation and albedo feedback) and the winter sea ice extent by ocean processes (ocean heat transport from Atlantic into Arctic Ocean, e.g. applying Community Earth System Model large ensemble simulation). In our study, we analyse a historical simulation with the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) performed for CMIP6 from 1850 to 2014 and ocean – sea ice simulations forced by atmospheric reanalysis data with the same ocean model NEMOv3.6 and sea ice model CICEv5.1. The UKESM simulation confirms previous findings showing that the ocean heat transport between Norway and Svalbard (Barents Sea Opening; BSO) is strongly correlated with the winter (and annual) sea ice extent in the Barents Sea and the whole Arctic. However, there is no correlation in the atmospheric-forced simulations suggesting that the interaction between atmosphere and ocean is crucial. We will present sensitivity simulations showing the impact of atmospheric forcing data on the BSO heat flux and analyse the role of atmospheric processes (large scale circulation, cloud formation) on winter sea ice conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (15) ◽  
pp. 4570-4575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Satellite observations reveal a substantial decline in September Arctic sea ice extent since 1979, which has played a leading role in the observed recent Arctic surface warming and has often been attributed, in large part, to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, the most rapid decline occurred during the recent global warming hiatus period. Previous studies are often focused on a single mechanism for changes and variations of summer Arctic sea ice extent, and many are based on short observational records. The key players for summer Arctic sea ice extent variability at multidecadal/centennial time scales and their contributions to the observed summer Arctic sea ice decline are not well understood. Here a multiple regression model is developed for the first time, to the author’s knowledge, to provide a framework to quantify the contributions of three key predictors (Atlantic/Pacific heat transport into the Arctic, and Arctic Dipole) to the internal low-frequency variability of Summer Arctic sea ice extent, using a 3,600-y-long control climate model simulation. The results suggest that changes in these key predictors could have contributed substantially to the observed summer Arctic sea ice decline. If the ocean heat transport into the Arctic were to weaken in the near future due to internal variability, there might be a hiatus in the decline of September Arctic sea ice. The modeling results also suggest that at multidecadal/centennial time scales, variations in the atmosphere heat transport across the Arctic Circle are forced by anticorrelated variations in the Atlantic heat transport into the Arctic.

Atmospheric and oceanic drivers of regional Arctic winter sea-ice variability in present and future climates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob Dörr ◽  
Marius Årthun ◽  
Tor Eldevik ◽  
Erica Madonna
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

<p>The recent retreat of Arctic sea ice area is overlaid by strong internal variability on all timescales. In winter, sea ice retreat and variability are currently dominated by the Barents Sea, primarily driven by variable ocean heat transport from the Atlantic. Climate models from the latest intercomparison project CMIP6 project that the future loss of winter Arctic sea ice spreads throughout the Arctic Ocean and, hence, that other regions of the Arctic Ocean will see increased sea-ice variability. It is, however, not known how the influence of ocean heat transport will change, and to what extent and in which regions other drivers, such as atmospheric circulation or river runoff into the Arctic Ocean, will become important. Using a combination of observations and simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), we analyze and contrast the present and future regional drivers of the variability of the winter Arctic sea ice cover. We find that for the recent past, both observations and CESM-LE show that sea ice variability in the Atlantic and Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean is influenced by ocean heat transport through the Barents Sea and Bering Strait, respectively. The two dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability – the Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific North American pattern – are only weakly related to recent regional sea ice variability. However, atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with regional sea ice variability show distinct patterns for the Atlantic and Pacific sectors consistent with heat and humidity transport from lower latitudes. In the future, under a high emission scenario, CESM-LE projects a gradual expansion of the footprint of the Pacific and Atlantic inflows, covering the whole Arctic Ocean by 2050-2079. This study highlights the combined importance of future Atlantification and Pacification of the Arctic Ocean and improves our understanding of internal climate variability which essential in order to predict future sea ice changes under anthropogenic warming.   </p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Different mechanisms of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice response to ocean heat transport

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jake Aylmer ◽  
David Ferreira ◽  
Daniel Feltham
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Energy Convergence

AbstractUnderstanding drivers of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice on multidecadal timescales is key to reducing uncertainties in long-term climate projections. Here we investigate the impact of ocean heat transport (OHT) on sea ice, using pre-industrial control simulations of 20 models participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In all models and in both hemispheres, sea ice extent is negatively correlated with poleward OHT. However, the similarity of the correlations in both hemispheres hides radically different underlying mechanisms. In the northern hemisphere, positive OHT anomalies primarily result in increased ocean heat convergence along the Atlantic sea ice edge, where most of the ice loss occurs. Such strong, localised heat fluxes ($$\sim {}100~\text {W}~\text {m}^{-2}$$ ∼ 100 W m - 2 ) also drive increased atmospheric moist-static energy convergence at higher latitudes, resulting in a pan-Arctic reduction in sea ice thickness. In the southern hemisphere, increased OHT is released relatively uniformly under the Antarctic ice pack, so that associated sea ice loss is driven by basal melt with no direct atmospheric role. These results are qualitatively robust across models and strengthen the case for a substantial contribution of ocean forcing to sea ice uncertainty, and biases relative to observations, in climate models.

scholarly journals Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice cover over the last century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars H. Smedsrud ◽  
Morven Muilwijk ◽  
Ailin Brakstad ◽  
Erica Madonna ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Heat Loss ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Total Heat Loss ◽  
Nordic Seas

<p>Poleward ocean heat transport is a key process in the earth system. Here we detail the changing northward Atlantic Water (AW) flow in the Nordic Seas and the associated Arctic Ocean heat transport and heat loss to the atmosphere since 1900, in relation to the sea ice cover. Our synthesis is largely based on a sea ice-ocean model forced by a reanalysis atmosphere (1900-2018) corroborated by a comprehensive hydrographic database (1950-), measurements of AW inflow (1996-), and other key long-term regional time series. Since the 1970s, ocean temperatures have increased in the Nordic, Barents and Polar Seas, in particular on the shelves. The AW loses heat to the atmosphere as it travels poleward, mostly in  the Nordic Seas, where ~60% of the Arctic Ocean total heat loss resides. Nordic Seas heat loss variability is large, but the long-term positive trend is small. The Barents Sea heat loss is ~30% of the total, but has larger consistently positive trends, related to AW heat transport and sea ice loss. The Arctic seas farther north see only ~10% of the  total heat loss, but show a consistently large increase in heat loss as well as decrease in sea ice since 1900. The AW inflow, the cooling of this water mass as it travels poleward, and the dense outflow have thus all increased since 1900, and they are consistently related through theoretical scaling. Some of the increased AW inflow is wind-driven, and much of the heat loss variability is linked to Cold Air Outbreaks and cyclones in the Nordic and Barents Seas. The oceanic warming is congruent with increased ocean heat transport and a loss of sea ice, and has contributed to the retreat of marine terminating glaciers on Greenland. After 2000, the warming has accelerated, creating a “new normal” that appears to also affect deep water volumes and temperature. The 20th century average Nordic, Barents and Polar Seas CO2 uptake constitutes ~8% of the global ocean, and is almost entirely driven by heat loss to the atmosphere as the AW transforms from inflow to overflow water. The total Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake has increased by ~30% since 1900, which is closely linked to the loss of sea ice in the Barents and Polar Seas.</p>

scholarly journals The thermodynamic state of the Arctic atmosphere observed by AIRS: comparisons during the record minimum sea-ice extents of 2007 and 2012

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Devasthale ◽  
T. Koenigk ◽  
J. Sedlar ◽  
E. J. Fetzer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Thermodynamic State ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Arctic Atmosphere

Abstract. The record sea-ice minimum (SIM) extents observed during the summers of 2007 and 2012 in the Arctic are stark evidence of accelerated sea ice loss during the last decade. Improving our understanding of the Arctic atmosphere and accurate quantification of its characteristics becomes ever more crucial, not least to improve predictions of such extreme events in the future. In this context, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument onboard NASA's Aqua satellite provides crucial insights due to its ability to provide 3-D information on atmospheric thermodynamics. Here, we facilitate comparisons in the evolution of the thermodynamic state of the Arctic atmosphere during these two SIM events using a decade long AIRS observational record (2003–2012). It is shown that the meteorological conditions during 2012 were not extreme but three factors in preconditioning from winter through early summer probably played an important role in accelerating sea-ice melt. First, the marginal sea-ice zones along the central Eurasian and North Atlantic sectors remained warm throughout winter and early spring in 2012 preventing thicker ice build-up. Second, the circulation pattern favoured efficient sea-ice transport out of the Arctic in the Atlantic sector during late spring and early summer in 2012 compared to 2007. Third, additional warming over the Canadian Archipelago and southeast Beaufort Sea from May onward further contributed to accelerated sea-ice melt. All these factors may have lead already thin and declining sea-ice cover to pass below the previous sea-ice extent minimum of 2007. In sharp contrast to 2007, negative surface temperature anomalies and increased cloudiness were observed over the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas in the summer of 2012. The results suggest that satellite-based monitoring of atmospheric preconditioning could be a critical source of information in predicting extreme sea-ice melting events in the Arctic.

scholarly journals The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 433-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alek A. Petty ◽  
Julienne C. Stroeve ◽  
Paul R. Holland ◽  
Linette N. Boisvert ◽  
Angela C. Bliss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract. The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness” of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, “New Arctic”, sea ice regime.

scholarly journals The thermodynamic state of the Arctic atmosphere observed by AIRS: comparisons during the record minimum sea ice extents of 2007 and 2012

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 7441-7450 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Devasthale ◽  
J. Sedlar ◽  
T. Koenigk ◽  
E. J. Fetzer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Thermodynamic State ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Arctic Atmosphere

Abstract. The record sea ice minimum (SIM) extents observed during the summers of 2007 and 2012 in the Arctic are stark evidence of accelerated sea ice loss during the last decade. Improving our understanding of the Arctic atmosphere and accurate quantification of its characteristics becomes ever more crucial, not least to improve predictions of such extreme events in the future. In this context, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument onboard NASA's Aqua satellite provides crucial insights due to its ability to provide 3-D information on atmospheric thermodynamics. Here, we facilitate comparisons in the evolution of the thermodynamic state of the Arctic atmosphere during these two SIM events using a decade-long AIRS observational record (2003–2012). It is shown that the meteorological conditions during 2012 were not extreme, but three factors of preconditioning from winter through early summer played an important role in accelerating sea ice melt. First, the marginal sea ice zones along the central Eurasian and North Atlantic sectors remained warm throughout winter and early spring in 2012 preventing thicker ice build-up. Second, the circulation pattern favoured efficient sea ice transport out of the Arctic in the Atlantic sector during late spring and early summer in 2012 compared to 2007. Third, additional warming over the Canadian archipelago and southeast Beaufort Sea from May onward further contributed to accelerated sea ice melt. All these factors may have lead the already thin and declining sea ice cover to pass below the previous sea ice extent minimum of 2007. In sharp contrast to 2007, negative surface temperature anomalies and increased cloudiness were observed over the East Siberian and Chukchi seas in the summer of 2012. The results suggest that satellite-based monitoring of atmospheric preconditioning could be a critical source of information in predicting extreme sea ice melting events in the Arctic.

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