Timing and magnitude of runoff in Austrian mountain catchments in a warming climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Hanus ◽  
Harry Zekollari ◽  
Gerrit Schoups ◽  
Roland Kaitna ◽  
Markus Hrachowitz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Lower Elevation ◽  
Comprehensive Picture ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Alpine Catchments ◽  
Maximum Flows

<p>Hydrological regimes of alpine catchments are expected to be strongly influenced by climate change due to their dependence on snow dynamics. While seasonal changes have been studied extensively, studies on changes in the timing and magnitude of annual extremes remain rare. This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six alpine catchments in Austria by using a topography-driven semi-distributed hydrological model and 14 climate projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The study catchments represent a range of alpine catchments, from pluvial-nival to nivo-glacial, as the study focuses on providing a comprehensive picture of future runoff changes on catchments at different altitudes. Simulations of 1981-2010 are compared to projections of 2071-2100 by examining changes in timing and magnitude of annual maximum and minimum flows as well as monthly discharges.</p><p>Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum flows by 9 to 31 days on average and an extension of the potential flood season by 1 to 3 months for high elevation catchments. For lower elevation catchments, changes in timing of annual maximum flows are less pronounced. Magnitudes of annual maximum flows are likely to increase, with four catchments exhibiting larger increases under RCP 4.5 compared to RCP 8.5. The timing of minimum annual discharges shifts to earlier in the winter months for high elevation catchments, whereas for lower elevation catchments a shift from winter to autumn is observed. While all catchments show an increase in mean magnitude of minimum flows under RCP 4.5, this is not the case for two low elevation catchments under RCP 8.5.</p><p>Our results suggest a relationship between the altitude of catchments and changes in timing of annual maximum and minimum flows and magnitude of low flows, whereas no relationship between altitude and magnitude of annual maximum flows could be distinguished.</p>

scholarly journals Timing and magnitude of future annual runoff extremes in contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Hanus ◽  
Markus Hrachowitz ◽  
Harry Zekollari ◽  
Gerrit Schoups ◽  
Miren Vizcaino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Snow Melt ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Alpine Catchments ◽  
Maximum Flows ◽  
Hydrological Regimes

Abstract. Hydrological regimes of alpine catchments are expected to be strongly affected by climate change mostly due to their dependence on snow and ice dynamics. While seasonal changes have been studied extensively, studies on changes in the timing and magnitude of annual extremes remain rare. This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six contrasting alpine catchments in Austria using a process-based semi-distributed hydrological model and projections from 14 regional climate and global climate model combinations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The study catchments represent a spectrum of different hydrological regimes, from pluvial-nival to nivo-glacial, as well as distinct topographies and land forms, characterizing different elevation zones across the Eastern Alps to provide a comprehensive picture of future runoff changes. The climate projections are used to model river runoff in 2071–2100, which are then compared to the 1981–2010 reference period for all study catchments. Changes in timing and magnitude of annual maximum and minimum flows as well as in monthly runoff and snow melt are quantified and analyzed. Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum flows by 9 to 31 days and an extension of the potential flood season by one to three months for high-elevation catchments. For low-elevation catchments, changes in timing of annual maximum flows are less pronounced. Magnitudes of annual maximum flows are likely to increase by 2–18 % under RCP 4.5, while no clear changes are projected for four catchments under RCP 8.5. The latter is caused by a pronounced increase in evaporation and decrease in snow melt contributions which offset increases in precipitation. Minimum annual runoff occur 13–31 days earlier in the winter months for high-elevation catchments, whereas for low-elevation catchments a shift from winter to autumn by about 15–100 days is projected. While all catchments show an increase in mean magnitude of minimum flows by 7–30 % under RCP 4.5, this is only the case for four catchments under RCP 8.5. Our results suggest a relationship between the elevation of catchments and changes in timing of annual maximum and minimum flows. For the magnitude of the extreme flows, a relationship is found between catchment elevation and annual minimum flows, whereas this relationship is lacking between elevation and annual maximum flow.

scholarly journals Future changes in annual, seasonal and monthly runoff signatures in contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 3429-3453
Author(s):  
Sarah Hanus ◽  
Markus Hrachowitz ◽  
Harry Zekollari ◽  
Gerrit Schoups ◽  
Miren Vizcaino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
Alpine Catchments ◽  
Maximum Flows ◽  
Hydrological Regimes

Abstract. Hydrological regimes of alpine catchments are expected to be strongly affected by climate change, mostly due to their dependence on snow and ice dynamics. While seasonal changes have been studied extensively, studies on changes in the timing and magnitude of annual extremes remain rare. This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria using a process-based, semi-distributed hydrological model and projections from 14 regional and global climate model combinations for two representative concentration pathways, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study catchments represent a spectrum of different hydrological regimes, from pluvial–nival to nivo-glacial, as well as distinct topographies and land forms, characterizing different elevation zones across the eastern Alps to provide a comprehensive picture of future runoff changes. The climate projections are used to model river runoff in 2071–2100, which are then compared to the 1981–2010 reference period for all study catchments. Changes in the timing and magnitude of annual maximum and minimum flows, as well as in monthly runoff and snowmelt, are quantified and analyzed. Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum flows by 9 to 31 d and an extension of the potential flood season by 1 to 3 months for high-elevation catchments. For low-elevation catchments, changes in the timing of annual maximum flows are less pronounced. Magnitudes of annual maximum flows are likely to increase by 2 %–18 % under RCP4.5, while no clear changes are projected for four catchments under RCP8.5. The latter is caused by a pronounced increase in evaporation and decrease in snowmelt contributions, which offset increases in precipitation. In the future, minimum annual runoff will occur 13–31 d earlier in the winter months for high-elevation catchments, whereas for low-elevation catchments a shift from winter to autumn by about 15–100 d is projected, with generally larger changes for RCP8.5. While all catchments show an increase in mean magnitude of minimum flows by 7–30% under RCP4.5, this is only the case for four catchments under RCP8.5. Our results suggest a relationship between the elevation of catchments and changes in the timing of annual maximum and minimum flows. For the magnitude of the extreme flows, a relationship is found between catchment elevation and annual minimum flows, whereas this relationship is lacking between elevation and annual maximum flow.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the Wami Ruvu basin of Tanzania

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philbert Luhunga ◽  
Ladslaus Chang'a ◽  
George Djolov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports confirm that climate change will hit developing countries the hardest. Adaption is on the agenda of many countries around the world. However, before devising adaption strategies, it is crucial to assess and understand the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea mays) production in the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania was evaluated using the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer. The model was fed with daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation for current climate conditions (1971–2000) as well as future climate projections (2010–2099) for two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These data were derived from three high-resolution regional climate models, used in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program. Results showed that due to climate change future maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin will slightly increase relative to the baseline during the current century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. However, maize yields will decline in the mid and end centuries. The spatial distribution showed that high decline in maize yields are projected over lower altitude regions due to projected increase in temperatures in those areas.

Uncertainty in hydrological modelling of climate change impacts in four Norwegian catchments

2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
pp. 457-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Lawrence ◽  
Ingjerd Haddeland
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Maximum Flows ◽  
Hydrological Parameter

Projections for the hydrological impacts of climate change are necessarily reliant on a chain of models for which numerous alternative models and approaches are available. Many of these alternatives produce dissimilar results which can undermine their use in practical applications due to these differences. A methodology for developing climate change impact projections and for representing the range of model outcomes is demonstrated based on the application of a hydrological model with input data from six regional climate scenarios, which have been further adjusted to match local conditions. Multiple best-fit hydrological model parameter sets are also used so that hydrological parameter uncertainty is included in the analysis. The methodology is applied to consider projected changes in the average annual maximum daily mean runoff in four catchments (Flaksvatn, Viksvatn, Masi and Nybergsund) which are characterised by regional differences in seasonal flow regimes. For catchments where rainfall makes the predominant contribution to annual maximum flows, hydrological parameter uncertainty is significant relative to other uncertainty sources. Parameter uncertainty is less important in catchments where spring snowmelt dominates the generation of maximum flows. In this case, differences between climate scenarios and methods for adjusting climate model output to local conditions dominate uncertainty.

scholarly journals Winter tourism and climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Spandre ◽  
Hugues François ◽  
Deborah Verfaillie ◽  
Marc Pons ◽  
Matthieu Vernay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Winter Tourism ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Ski Resorts ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Alps ◽  
Natural Snow ◽  
Near Future

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986–2005) and to be highly impacted by the on-going climate change. The technical reliability (i.e. including snowmaking) is projected to rise by 200 m to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 m to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030–2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 % of ski lift infrastructures are reliable in the reference period thanks to snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 % to 25 %) may be considered "at risk" in the near future. Beyond the mid century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP 2.6) or continuous decrease of snow reliability (RCP 8.5). According to the "business as usual" scenario (RCP 8.5), there would no longer be any snow reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080–2100). Only 24 resorts are projected to remain technically reliable, all being located in the Alps.

scholarly journals Future runoff regime changes and their time of emergence for 93 catchments in Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Regula Muelchi ◽  
Ole Rössler ◽  
Jan Schwanbeck ◽  
Rolf Weingartner ◽  
Olivia Martius
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Strong Influence ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Changes

Abstract. Assessments of climate change impacts on runoff regimes are essential for adaptation and mitigation planning. Changing runoff regimes and thus changing seasonal patterns of water availability have strong influence on various sectors such as agriculture, energy production or fishery. In this study, we use the most up to date local climate projections for Switzerland (CH2018) that were downscaled with a post-processing method (quantile mapping). This enables detailed information on changes in runoff regimes and their time of emergence for 93 rivers in Switzerland under three emission pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Changes in seasonal patterns are projected with increasing winter runoff and decreasing summer and autumn runoff. Spring runoff is projected to increase in high elevation catchments and to decrease in lower lying catchments. Despite strong increases in winter and partly in spring, the yearly mean runoff is projected to decrease in most catchments. Results show a strong elevation dependence for the signal and magnitude of change. Compared to lower lying catchments, runoff changes in high elevation catchments (above 1500 masl) are larger in winter, spring, and summer due to the strong influence of reduced snow accumulation and earlier snow melt as well as glacier melt. Under RCP8.5 (RCP2.6) and for catchments with mean altitude below 1500 masl, average relative runoff change in winter is +27 % (+5 %), in spring −5 % (−6 %), in summer −31 % (−4 %), in autumn −21 % (−6 %), and −8 % (−4 %) throughout the year. For catchments with mean elevation above 1500 masl, runoff changes on average by +77 % (+24 %) in winter, by +28 % (+16 %) in spring, by −41 % (−9 %) in summer, by −15 % (−4 %) in autumn, and by −9 % (−0.6 %) in the yearly mean. The changes and the climate model agreement on the signal of change increase with increasing global mean temperatures or stronger emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation. Under RCP8.5, early times of emergence in winter (before 2065; period 2036–2065) and summer (before 2065) were found for catchments with mean altitudes above 1500 masl. Significant changes in catchments below 1500 masl emerge later in the century. However, not all catchments show a time of emergence in all seasons and in some catchments the detected significant changes are not persistent over time.

Pedoclimatic comparison of three viticultural areas of Italy devoted to high-quality Aglianico and Cabernet Sauvignon production

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugenia Monaco ◽  
Roberto De Mascellis ◽  
Giuliana Barbato ◽  
Paola Mercogliano ◽  
Maurizio Buonanno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Cabernet Sauvignon ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
Berry Quality ◽  
Rcp 8.5

<p>In the Mediterranean area, the expected increase in temperature coupled with the decrease in rainfall, as well as the increase in the frequency of extreme events (heatwaves and drought, IPCC, 2019), will severely affect the survival of current vineyard areas. Cultivar thermal requirement and soil water availability could be not satisfied, leading to a limitation in yield and berry quality also due to constraints in the achievement of optimal grape maturity.</p><p>In this context, the understanding of how the spatial viticultural suitability will change under climate change is of primary interest in order to identify the best adaptation strategies to guarantee the resilience of current viticultural areas. Moreover, the improvement of knowledge of climate, soil, and their interaction for each specific cultivar will be fundamental because the terroir system is based on this interaction able to influence the plant status (e.g., water).</p><p>In this study, different pedo-climatic conditions (past, present, and future) in three Italian sites at different latitudes (from center to southern), were compared for two red varieties of grapevine: Aglianico (indigenous cv) and Cabernet Sauvignon (international cv).</p><p>Grapevine adaptation to future climate in each experimental farm in Campania, Molise, and Sicily Italian regions has been realized through the use of bioclimatic indexes (e.g., Amerine & Winkler for Aglianico 2110 GDD). The climatic evaluation was performed using Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM at high-resolution (8km x 8km) climate projections RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2010-2100) and Reference Climate (RC, 1971-2005).</p><p>Results have shown how climate change will affect the cultivation of Aglianico and Cabernet Sauvignon, considering both the climate and bioclimatic needs of cultivars themselves in the current viticultural areas.</p><p>Finally, coupled with the climatic evaluation, a pedological survey to characterize the soils, and the analysis of satellite images (Sentinel2 ) coupled with stemwood anatomical analysis has been performed to reconstruct the past eco-physiological behavior.</p>

scholarly journals Climate changes impact estimation on urban drainage system located in low latitudes districts: a study case in Fortaleza-CE

RBRH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Abílio Medeiros de Sabóia ◽  
◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho ◽  
Luiz Martins de Araújo Júnior ◽  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Urban Drainage System ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The City

ABSTRACT The observed changes in extreme weather events reflect the influence of climate change caused by anthropogenic factors, in addition to natural climate variability. According to future climate projections, the increase in the average surface temperature will cause major changes in the average annual rainfall of almost the entire planet. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of possible scenarios of climate change on urban drainage system in locations situated at low latitudes. The specific location of the study was one of the Rio Cocó sub-basins in the city of Fortaleza-CE. It was used rainfall data generated by 6 (six) different global circulation models: bcc-CSM1, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1-CAM5, inmcm4 and MIROC5. These data were extracted and interpolated to the city of Fortaleza-CE. This information was used in order to generate new IDF equations designed for the future, by using the “Equidistance Quantile Matching Method”, based on climate projections RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The new values of rainfall generated by these new IDF curves were used as input data to HEC-HMS program, which is capable of calculating flow and volume disposed in a particular basin. The results showed that large increases in flow rates and volumes disposed in the analyzed drainage system will occur, and that the RCP 8.5 scenario presented even more pronounced values than the ones generated by the scenario RCP 4.5.

scholarly journals Does the High Elevation Climate along Mt. Everest can be Represented by Lower Elevation Stations?

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-109
Author(s):  
Binod Dawadi ◽  
Shankar Sharma ◽  
Kalpana Hamal ◽  
Nitesh Khadka ◽  
Yam Prasad Dhital ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Southern Slope ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Lower Elevation

Climate change studies of the high mountain areas of the central Himalayan region are mostly represented by the meteorological stations of the lower elevation. Therefore, to validate the climatic linkages, daily observational climate data from five automated weather stations (AWS) at elevations ranging from 2660 m to 5600 m on the southern slope of Mt. Everest were examined. Despite variations in the means and distribution of daily, 5-day, 10-day, and monthly temperature and precipitation between stations located at a higher elevation and their corresponding lower elevation, temperature records in the different elevations are highly correlated. In contrast, the precipitation data shows a comparatively weaker correlation. The slopes of the regression model (0.82–1.13) with (R2>0.74) for higher altitude (5050 m and 5600 m) throughout the year, 0.83–1.12 (R2>0.68) except late monsoon season for the station at 4260 m and 5050 m asl indicated the similar variability of the temperature between those stations. Similarly, Namche (3570 m) temperature changes by 0.81–1.32°C per degree change in corresponding lower elevation Lukla station (2660 m), except for monsoon season. However, inconsistent variation was observed between the station with a large altitudinal difference (2940 m) at Lukla and Kala Patthar (5600 m). In general, climate records from corresponding lower elevation can be used to quantitatively assess climatic information of the high elevation areas on the southern slope of Mt. Everest. However, corrections are necessary when absolute values of climatic factors are considered, especially in snow cover and snow-free areas. This study will be beneficial for understanding the high-altitude climate change and impact studies.

A 15,000 year record of vegetation and climate change from a treeline lake in the Rocky Mountains, Wyoming, USA

The Holocene ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 739-748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Mensing ◽  
John Korfmacher ◽  
Thomas Minckley ◽  
Robert Musselman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rocky Mountains ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Sagebrush Steppe ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Upward Movement ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Vegetation And Climate

Future climate projections predict warming at high elevations that will impact treeline species, but complex topographic relief in mountains complicates ecologic response, and we have a limited number of long-term studies examining vegetation change related to climate. In this study, pollen and conifer stomata were analyzed from a 2.3 m sediment core extending to 15,330 cal. yr BP recovered from a treeline lake in the Rocky Mountains of Wyoming. Both pollen and stomata record a sequence of vegetation and climate change similar in most respects to other regional studies, with sagebrush steppe and lowered treeline during the Late Pleistocene, rapid upward movement of treeline beginning about 11,500 cal. yr BP, treeline above modern between ~9000 and 6000 cal. yr BP, and then moving downslope ~5000 cal. yr BP, reaching modern limits by ~3000 cal. yr BP. Between 6000 and 5000 cal. yr BP sediments become increasingly organic and sedimentation rates increase. We interpret this as evidence for lower lake levels during an extended dry period with warmer summer temperatures and treeline advance. The complex topography of the Rocky Mountains makes it challenging to identify regional patterns associated with short term climatic variability, but our results contribute to gaining a better understanding of past ecologic responses at high elevation sites.

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