scholarly journals Forecasting annual maximum water level for Negro River at Manaus

Author(s):  
Amulya Chevuturi ◽  
Nicholas P. Klingaman ◽  
Steven J. Woolnough ◽  
Conrado M. Rudorff ◽  
Caio A. S. Coelho ◽  
...  

<p>Variations in water levels of the Negro River, that flows through the Port of Manaus, can cause considerable regional environmental and socio-economic losses. It is therefore critical to advance predictions for water levels, especially flood levels, to provide more effective and earlier warnings to safeguard lives and livelihoods. Variations in water levels in free-flowing river systems, like the Negro follow large-scale precipitation anomalies, which offers an opportunity to predict maximum water levels using observed antecedent rainfall. This study aims to improve the performance and extend the lead time of statistical forecasts for annual maximum water level of the Negro River at Manaus, relative to operational forecasts. Multiple linear regression methods are applied to develop forecast models, that can be issued in March, February and January, with the best possible combinations potential predictors: observed antecedent catchment rainfall and water levels, large-scale modes of climate variability and the linear trend in water levels. Our statistical models gain one month of lead time against existing models, but are only moderately better than existing models at similar lead time. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal reforecast data with our statistical models, further gains an additional month of lead time of skilful performance. Our models lose performance at longer lead times, as expected. Our forecast models can issue skilful operational forecasts in March or earlier and have been successfully tested for operational forecast of 2020. This method can be applied to develop statistical models for annual maximum water level over other free-flowing rivers in the Amazon basin with intact catchments and historical water level record.</p>

Author(s):  
Amulya Chevuturi ◽  
Nicholas P. Klingaman ◽  
Conrado M. Rudorff ◽  
Caio A. S. Coelho ◽  
Jochen Schöngart

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Dyah Pratiwi Kusumastuti ◽  
Husna Alghoida

Abstract Dams have many benefits such as irrigation, flood prevention, power generation and even tourism, especially in areas where the dam is located. So that the benefits received can last a long time, in the planning, it must be analyzed for stability, seepage discharge that occurs and the safety of the piping. The piping hazard safety figures in this study were calculated using the Harza method for maximum water level conditions, normal water levels, fast receding and empty dams at sta 0 + 150, sta 0 + 200, sta 0 + 250 and sta 0 + 300. Based on the calculation results, it is found that the safety of piping hazards without filters with the grouting method do not meet the requirements safety factor, especially in conditions of maximum water level, normal water level and fast receding. In order for the safety of piping hazard in order to meet the requirements, a filter is applied under the dams. The filter is applied so that the piping hazard safety figure meets the requirements of all water level conditions and all station is 80 cm deep.   Keywords: safety factor, piping, Harza method, filter   ABSTRAK Bendungan memiliki banyak manfaat seperti irigasi, pencegah banjir, pembangkit listrik bahkan pariwisata khususnya pada wilayah dimana bendungan tersebut berada. Agar manfaat yang diterima dapat berlangsung lama maka dalam perencanaannya wajib dianalisis terhadap stabilitas, debit rembesan yang terjadi maupun keamanan dari piping. Angka keamanan bahaya piping pada penelitian ini dihitung dengan menggunakan metode Harza untuk kondisi muka air maksimum, muka air normal, surut cepat dan bendungan kosong di sta 0+150, sta 0+200, sta 0+250 serta sta 0+300. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan didapatkan bahwa angka keamanan bahaya piping tanpa penggunaan filter dengan metode grouting tidak memenuhi persyaratan angka keamanan khususnya pada kondisi muka air maksimum, muka air normal dan surut cepat. Agar angka keamanan bahaya piping memenuhi persyaratan maka diaplikasikan filter dibawah tubuh bendungan. Filter yang diaplikasikan agar angka keamanan bahaya piping memenuhi persyaratan diseluruh kondisi muka air dan seluruh sta adalah dengan kedalaman 80 cm.   Kata kunci: angka keamanan, piping, metode Harza, filter Abstract Dams have many benefits such as irrigation, flood prevention, power generation and even tourism, especially in areas where the dam is located. So that the benefits received can last a long time, in the planning, it must be analyzed for stability, seepage discharge that occurs and the safety of the piping. The piping hazard safety figures in this study were calculated using the Harza method for maximum water level conditions, normal water levels, fast receding and empty dams at sta 0 + 150, sta 0 + 200, sta 0 + 250 and sta 0 + 300. Based on the calculation results, it is found that the safety of piping hazards without filters with the grouting method do not meet the requirements safety factor, especially in conditions of maximum water level, normal water level and fast receding. In order for the safety of piping hazard in order to meet the requirements, a filter is applied under the dams. The filter is applied so that the piping hazard safety figure meets the requirements of all water level conditions and all station is 80 cm deep.   Keywords: safety factor, piping, Harza method, filter   ABSTRAK Bendungan memiliki banyak manfaat seperti irigasi, pencegah banjir, pembangkit listrik bahkan pariwisata khususnya pada wilayah dimana bendungan tersebut berada. Agar manfaat yang diterima dapat berlangsung lama maka dalam perencanaannya wajib dianalisis terhadap stabilitas, debit rembesan yang terjadi maupun keamanan dari piping. Angka keamanan bahaya piping pada penelitian ini dihitung dengan menggunakan metode Harza untuk kondisi muka air maksimum, muka air normal, surut cepat dan bendungan kosong di sta 0+150, sta 0+200, sta 0+250 serta sta 0+300. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan didapatkan bahwa angka keamanan bahaya piping tanpa penggunaan filter dengan metode grouting tidak memenuhi persyaratan angka keamanan khususnya pada kondisi muka air maksimum, muka air normal dan surut cepat. Agar angka keamanan bahaya piping memenuhi persyaratan maka diaplikasikan filter dibawah tubuh bendungan. Filter yang diaplikasikan agar angka keamanan bahaya piping memenuhi persyaratan diseluruh kondisi muka air dan seluruh sta adalah dengan kedalaman 80 cm.   Kata kunci: angka keamanan, piping, metode Harza, filter


2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sándor András Boldogh ◽  
Tamás Visnyovszky ◽  
Zsolt Szegedi ◽  
Béla Habarics ◽  
Róbert Horváth ◽  
...  

Abstract The Corncrake is a threatened umbrella species for wet meadows, which mostly depends on managed grasslands. Therefore, effective conservation requires bird-friendly land management schemes and subsidies. Although the most important populations in Hungary usually breed in protected areas, some of these are regularly flooded, which forces Corncrakes to find breeding sites elsewhere. Such movements from protected/subsidised areas to suboptimal sites have risks for Corncrake populations and their conservation. Here, we describe a large-scale dynamic system of interlinked populations based on data from 4194 Corncrake territories found at four different sites (Aggtelek, Bodrogzug, Szatmár-Bereg and Zemplén regions) across eight years between 1997 and 2006 in NE Hungary (c. 1500 km2). The results showed that the total population fluctuated between 407 and 631 pairs and that the populations were more-or-less stable in the first four years (1997–2000). However, extended floods caused the disappearance of the species from the Bodrogzug region in 2005–2006, while in the other sites, the number of territories increased five-fold (Zemplén), three-fold (Aggtelek) and two-fold (Szatmár-Bereg). The correlation between the number of territories and maximum water level of river Tisza in April-May was negative in the Bodrogzug site and positive in the three other sites, indicating that interlinkages of the populations were associated with water levels. Our data thus support the hypothesis that many of the birds driven out by inundation of floodplain meadows moved to other sites in NE Hungary in flood years. These results suggest that even large, centrally located populations of Corncrake can be greatly exposed to risks of flooding and that it is highly important to maintain suitable alternative breeding sites for the species. The High Natural Value Areas programme may allow administrative and funding support to provide or extend protection and/or subsidies to maintain this large-scale dynamic system. To this end, the area managed in bird-friendly ways and subsidised under agri-environmental schemes was extended by 35,000 hectares in NE Hungary in 2009.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 502
Author(s):  
Jinman Kim ◽  
Heuisoo Han ◽  
Yoonhwa Jin

This paper shows the results of a field appliance study of the hydraulic well method to prevent embankment piping, which is proposed by the Japanese Matsuyama River National Highway Office. The large-scale embankment experiment and seepage analysis were conducted to examine the hydraulic well. The experimental procedure is focused on the pore water pressure. The water levels of the hydraulic well were compared with pore water pressure data, which were used to look over the seepage variations. Two different types of large-scale experiments were conducted according to the installation points of hydraulic wells. The seepage velocity results by the experiment were almost similar to those of the analyses. Further, the pore water pressure oriented from the water level variations in the hydraulic well showed similar patterns between the experiment and numerical analysis; however, deeper from the surface, the larger pore water pressure of the numerical analysis was calculated compared to the experimental values. In addition, the piping effect according to the water level and location of the hydraulic well was quantitatively examined for an embankment having a piping guide part. As a result of applying the hydraulic well to the point where piping occurred, the hydraulic well with a 1.0 m water level reduced the seepage velocity by up to 86%. This is because the difference in the water level between the riverside and the protected side is reduced, and it resulted in reducing the seepage pressure. As a result of the theoretical and numerical hydraulic gradient analysis according to the change in the water level of the hydraulic well, the hydraulic gradient decreased linearly according to the water level of the hydraulic well. From the results according to the location of the hydraulic well, installation of it at the point where piping occurred was found to be the most effective. A hydraulic well is a good device for preventing the piping of an embankment if it is installed at the piping point and the proper water level of the hydraulic well is applied.


2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 201-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wahid Palash ◽  
Yudan Jiang ◽  
Ali S. Akanda ◽  
David L. Small ◽  
Amin Nozari ◽  
...  

A forecasting lead time of 5–10 days is desired to increase the flood response and preparedness for large river basins. Large uncertainty in observed and forecasted rainfall appears to be a key bottleneck in providing reliable flood forecasting. Significant efforts continue to be devoted to developing mechanistic hydrological models and statistical and satellite-driven methods to increase the forecasting lead time without exploring the functional utility of these complicated methods. This paper examines the utility of a data-based modeling framework with requisite simplicity that identifies key variables and processes and develops ways to track their evolution and performance. Findings suggest that models with requisite simplicity—relying on flow persistence, aggregated upstream rainfall, and travel time—can provide reliable flood forecasts comparable to relatively more complicated methods for up to 10 days lead time for the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and upper Meghna (GBM) gauging locations inside Bangladesh. Forecasting accuracy improves further by including weather-model-generated forecasted rainfall into the forecasting scheme. The use of water level in the model provides equally good forecasting accuracy for these rivers. The findings of the study also suggest that large-scale rainfall patterns captured by the satellites or weather models and their “predictive ability” of future rainfall are useful in a data-driven model to obtain skillful flood forecasts up to 10 days for the GBM basins. Ease of operationalization and reliable forecasting accuracy of the proposed framework is of particular importance for large rivers, where access to upstream gauge-measured rainfall and flow data are limited, and detailed modeling approaches are operationally prohibitive and functionally ineffective.


2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 344-353
Author(s):  
Abdul-Hassan K. Al-Shukur ◽  
Ranya Badea’ Mahmoud

One of the most common type of embankment dam failure is the dam-break due to overtopping. In this study, the finite elements method has been used to analyze seepage and limit equilibrium method to study stability of the body of an earthfill dam during the flood condition. For this purpose, the software Geostudio 2012 is used through its subprograms SEEP/W and SLOPE/W. Al-Adhaim dam in Iraq has been chosen to analysis the 5 days of flood. It was found that the water flux of seepage during the flood reaches about 8.772*10-5. m3/sec when the water level 146.5 m at 2nd day. Seepage through the embankment at maximum water level increased by 55.1 % from maximum water level. It was concluded that the factor of safety against sliding in downstream side decrease with increasing water level and vice versa. It was also concluded that the deposits are getting more critical stability during the conditions of flood when the factor of safety value reaches 1.219 at 2nd day.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (4A) ◽  
pp. 599-613
Author(s):  
Moammed K. Malik ◽  
Ibtisam R. Karim

The current study is designed to analyze theslope stability of Haditha damwhich is an earth-fill dam constructed on the Euphrates River in the middle-west of Iraq. Finite element modeling was used in the present study to analyze the combined seepage and post-earthquake slope stability of Haditha earth dam. The maximum water level of a steady seepage case was considered to evaluate seepage. - Three different water levels (maximum, normal, and minimum) were applied, and nine different equilibrium slope stability limits were used to analyze the upstream and downstream slopes of the dam with three horizontal maximum accelerations.The input data given to the software are the dam geometry and its material properties with the earthquake records in the year2019.The dam was investigated by considering the water in the reservoir to be at maximum, minimum and normal water levels in its actual design. It was concluded that the dam is on the safe side in terms of stability even though the change in the earthquake's conditions in Iraq.


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