Modeling the Interaction between Slow Slip Events and Earthquake Ruptures in the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica. 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise Alalouf ◽  
Yajing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Computation Time ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Ruptures

<p>Subduction zones are where the largest earthquakes occur. In the past few decades, scientists have also discovered the presence of episodic aseismic slip, including slow slip events (SSEs), along most of the subduction zones. However, it is still unclear how these SSEs can influence megathrust earthquake ruptures. The Costa Rica subduction zone is a particularly interesting area because a SSE was recorded 6 months before the 2012 Mw7.6 earthquake in the Nicoya Peninsula, suggesting a potential stress transfer from the SSE to the earthquake slip zone. SSEs beneath the Nicoya Peninsula were also recorded both updip and downdip the seismogenic zone, making it a unique area to study the complex interaction between SSEs and earthquakes.</p><p>As most of the shallow SSEs were recorded around the Nicoya Peninsula, we chose to start using a 1D planar fault embedded in a homogeneous elastic half-space, with different dipping angles following several geometric profiles of the subduction fault beneath the Nicoya Peninsula section of the Costa Rica margin. This 1D modelling study allows us to better investigate the interaction between shallow and deep SSEs and megathrust earthquakes with high numerical resolution and relatively short computation time. The model provides information on the long-term seismic history by reproducing the different stages of the seismic cycle (interseismic slip, shallow and deep episodic slow slip, and coseismic slip).</p><p>We study the influence of the variation of numerical parameters and frictional properties on the recurrence interval, maximum slip velocity and cumulative slip of SSEs (both shallow and deep) and earthquakes and their interaction with each other. We then compare our results with GPS and seismic observations (i.e. cumulative slip, characteristic duration, moment rate, depth and size of the rupture, equivalent magnitude) to identify an optimal set of model parameters to understand the interaction between various modes of subduction fault deformation.</p>

Episodic fluid pressure cycling controls the interplay between Slow Slip Events and Large Megathrust Earthquakes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Petrini ◽  
Luca Dal Zilio ◽  
Taras Gerya
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Flow ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Finite Difference Methods ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Pressure Cycling ◽  
Crustal Stresses

<p>Slow slip events (SSEs) are part of a spectrum of aseismic processes that relieve tectonic stress on faults. Their occurrence in subduction zones have been suggested to trigger megathrust earthquakes due to perturbations in fluid pressure. However, examples to date have been poorly recorded and physical observations of temporal fluid pressure fluctuations through slow slip cycles remain elusive. Here, we use a newly developed two-phase flow numerical model — which couples solid rock deformation and pervasive fluid flow — to show how crustal stresses and fluid pressures within subducting megathrust evolve before and during slow slip and regular events. This unified 2D numerical framework couples inertial mechanical deformation and fluid flow by using finite difference methods, marker-in-cell technique, and poro-visco-elasto-plastic rheologies. Furthermore, an adaptive time stepping allows the correct resolution of both long- and short-time scales, ranging from years to milliseconds during the dynamic propagation of earthquake rupture.</p><p>Here we show how permeability and its spatial distribution control the degree of locking along the megathrust interface and the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip. While a constant permeability leads to more regular seismic cycles, a depth dependent permeability contributes substantially to the development of two distinct megathrust zones: a shallow, locked seismogenic zone and a deep, narrow aseismic segment characterized by SSEs. Furthermore, we show that without requiring any specific friction law, our model shows that permeability, episodic stress transfer and fluid pressure cycling control the predominant slip mode along the subduction megathrust. Specifically, we find that the up-dip propagation of episodic SSEs systematically decreases the fault strength due to a continuous accumulation and release of fluid pressure within overpressured subducting interface, thus affecting the timing of large megathrust earthquakes. These results contribute to improve our understanding of the physical driving forces underlying the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip, and demonstrate that slow slip events may prove useful for short-term earthquake forecasts.</p>

scholarly journals Do slow slip events trigger large and great megathrust earthquakes?

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. eaat8472 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Voss ◽  
T. H. Dixon ◽  
Z. Liu ◽  
R. Malservisi ◽  
M. Protti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Failure Stress ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Coulomb Failure ◽  
Earthquake Nucleation

Slow slip events have been suggested to trigger subduction earthquakes. However, examples to date have been poorly recorded, occurring offshore, where data are sparse. Better understanding of slow slip events and their influence on subsequent earthquakes is critical for hazard forecasts. We analyze a well-recorded event beginning 6 months before the 2012 Mw (moment magnitude) 7.6 earthquake in Costa Rica. The event migrates to the eventual megathrust rupture. Peak slip rate reached a maximum of 5 mm/day, 43 days before the earthquake, remaining high until the earthquake. However, changes in Mohr-Coulomb failure stress at the hypocenter were small (0.1 bar). Our data contradict models of earthquake nucleation that involve power law acceleration of slip and foreshocks. Slow slip events may prove useful for short-term earthquake forecasts.

Investigating seismic segmentation and recurrence patterns of great earthquakes along the Chilean megathrust.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Molina ◽  
Andres Tassara ◽  
Jean-Paul Ampuero ◽  
Daniel Melnick
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Apparent Difference ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
First Order ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Chilean Margin

<p>Megathrust earthquakes at subduction zones are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. Understanding the relationships between their temporal recurrence, spatial segmentation and the frictional structure of the megathrust is of primary relevance. We analyzed the common spatial variability of gravity anomalies, geodetic locking and wedge taper basal friction (three independent proxies for megathrust frictional structure) along the Chilean margin. A marked along-strike segmentation has emerged that is organized into three hierarchical levels. At a subcontinental-scale (10<sup>3</sup> km), we observe a first-order difference between Central (18-32°S) and Southern (32°-46°S) Andes. This is marked by a dominance of positive/negative gravity, high/low locking, high/low friction along the Central/Southern segments. We explain this as mainly reflecting the combined effect on effective normal stress (σ<sub>eff</sub>) of a high/low density forearc and low/high pore pressure along both megathrust segments, in agreement with the geological structure of the forearc, sediment input at the trench and the long-term architecture of the Andes. Inside this large-scale subdivision, we identify a number of segments (10<sup>2</sup> km) that are limited by marked small-scale (10<sup>1</sup> km) changes in the first-order tendency of the three proxies coinciding with geological features of both plates. When we compare this against the paleoseismic, historic and instrumental record of past earthquakes in Chile, we note that segments largely coincide with seismic asperities, i.e. those regions of the megathrust concentrating the largest fraction of coseismic slip. Bridging these two scales, the rupture length of giant (Mw 8.5-9.5) earthquakes, which encompassed several asperities, define an intermediate hierarchic level of organization (10<sup>2</sup>-10<sup>3</sup> km). Considering this segmentation into the conceptual framework of the rate-and-state friction (RSF) law, we infer that asperities inside the rate-weakening seismogenic zone of the Central Andean megathrust are dominantly unstable (i.e. σ<sub>eff</sub>>σ<sub>c</sub> = the critical stress defined by RSF parameters) and therefore prone to initiate and concentrate the coseismic rupture. In contrast, most of the asperities along the Southern mega-segment are likely characterized by a conditionally-stable behavior (σ<sub>eff</sub><σ<sub>c</sub>) that allows a rich and complex seismogenic behavior where interseismic creep and locking are both possible and large coseismic slip propagation is dominant. This can explain the apparent difference in the recurrence of giant earthquakes along both mega-segments, since the synchronization of unstable asperities in the Central Andean megathrust (2000-3000 yr recurrence time) is less probable than in the case of conditionally-stable asperities in the Southern segment (300-500 yrs). We will test these hypothesis developing numerical simulations of multiple seismic cycles with setups representing the inferred contrast on the physical properties of the megathrust along the Chilean margin, and we will present preliminary results of this exercise. </p>

Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica: A unique opportunity to drill and instrument the seismogenic zone of large megathrust earthquakes

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marino Protti ◽  
◽  
Nathan Bangs ◽  
Peter Baumgartner ◽  
Donald Fisher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Osa Peninsula ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes

Systematic characterization of slow slip events along the Mexican subduction zone from 2000 to 2019

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathilde Radiguet ◽  
Ekaterina Kazachkina ◽  
Louise Maubant ◽  
Nathalie Cotte ◽  
Vladimir Kostoglodov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Seismic Gap ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Mexican Subduction Zone

<p>Slow slip events (SSEs) represent a significant mechanism of strain release along several subduction zones, and understanding their occurrence and relations with major earthquake asperities is essential for a comprehensive understanding of the seismic cycle. Here, we focus on the Mexican subduction zone, characterized by the occurrence of recurrent large slow slip events (SSEs), both in the Guerrero region, where the SSEs are among the largest observed worldwide, and in the Oaxaca region, where smaller, more frequent SSEs occur. Up to now, most slow slip studies in the Mexican subduction zone focused either on the detailed analysis of a single event, were limited to a small area (Guerrero or Oaxaca), or were limited to data before 2012 [e.g.1-4]. In this study, our aim is to build an updated and consistent catalog of major slow slip events in the Guerrero-Oaxaca region.</p><p>We use an approach similar to Michel et al. 2018 [5]. We analyze the GPS time series from 2000 to 2019 using Independent Component Analysis (ICA), in order to separate temporally varying sources of different origins (seasonal signals, SSEs and afterslip of major earthquakes). We are able to isolate a component corresponding to seasonal loading, which matches the temporal evolution of displacement modeled from the GRACE data. The sources (independent components) identified as tectonic sources of deep origin are inverted for slip on the subduction interface. We thus obtain a model of the spatio-temporal evolution of aseismic slip on the subduction interface over 19 years, from which we can isolate around 30 individual slow slip events of M<sub>w </sub>> 6.2.</p><p> The obtained catalog is coherent with previous studies (in terms of number of events detected, magnitude and duration) which validates the methodology. The observed moment-duration scaling is close to M<sub>0</sub>~T<sup>3 </sup>as recently suggested by Michel [6] for Cascadia SSEs, and our study extends the range of magnitude considered in their analysis. Finally, we also investigate the spatio-temporal relations between the SSEs occurring in the adjacent regions of Guerrero and Oaxaca, and their interaction with local and distant earthquakes.</p><p> </p><p>References:</p><ol><li>Kostoglodov, V. et al. A large silent earthquake in the Guerrero seismic gap, Mexico. Geophys. Res. Lett <strong>30</strong>, 1807 (2003).</li> <li>Graham, S. et al. Slow Slip History for the Mexico Subduction Zone: 2005 Through 2011. Pure and Applied Geophysics 1–21 (2015). doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1211-x</li> <li>Larson, K. M., Kostoglodov, V. & Shin’ichi Miyazaki, J. A. S. The 2006 aseismic slow slip event in Guerrero, Mexico: New results from GPS. Geophys. Res. Lett. <strong>34</strong>, L13309 (2007).</li> <li>Radiguet, M. et al. Slow slip events and strain accumulation in the Guerrero gap, Mexico. J. Geophys. Res. <strong>117</strong>, B04305 (2012).</li> <li>Michel, S., Gualandi, A. & Avouac, J.-P. Interseismic Coupling and Slow Slip Events on the Cascadia Megathrust. Pure Appl. Geophys. (2018). doi:10.1007/s00024-018-1991-x</li> <li>Michel, S., Gualandi, A. & Avouac, J. Similar scaling laws for earthquakes and Cascadia slow-slip events. Nature <strong>574, </strong>522–526 (2019) doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1673-6</li> </ol><p> </p>

Towards assessing the link between slow slip and seismicity with a Deep Learning approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Costantino ◽  
Mauro Dalla Mura ◽  
David Marsan ◽  
Sophie Giffard-Roisin ◽  
Mathilde Radiguet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Ground Deformation ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Joint Analysis ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Seismicity Rate

<p>The deployment of increasingly dense geophysical networks in many geologically active regions on the Earth has given the possibility to reveal deformation signals that were not detectable beforehand. An example of these newly discovered signals are those associated with low-frequency earthquakes, which can be linked with the slow slip (aseismic slip) of faults. Aseismic fault slip is a crucial phenomenon as it might play a key role in the precursory phase before large earthquakes (in particular in subduction zones), during which the seismicity rate grows as well as does the ground deformation. Geodetic measurements, e.g. the Global Positioning System (GPS), are capable to track surface deformation transients likely induced by an episode of slow slip. However, very little is known about the mechanisms underlying this precursory phase, in particular regarding to how slow slip and seismicity relate.</p><p>The analysis done in this work focuses on recordings acquired by the Japan Meteorological Agency in the Boso area, Japan. In the Boso peninsula, interactions between seismicity and slow slip events can be observed over different time spans: regular slow slip events occur every 4 to 5 years, lasting about 10 days, and are associated with a burst of seismicity (Hirose et al. 2012, 2014, Gardonio et al. 2018), whereas an accelerated seismicity rate has been observed over decades that is likely associated with an increasing shear stress rate (i.e., tectonic loading) on the subduction interface (Ozawa et al. 2014, Reverso et al. 2016, Marsan et al. 2017).</p><p>This work aims to explore the potential of  Deep Learning  for better characterizing the interplay between seismicity and ground surface deformation. The analysis is based on a data-driven approach for building a model for assessing if a link seismicity – surface deformation exists and to characterize the nature of this link. This has potentially strong implications, as (small) earthquakes are the prime observable, so that better understanding the seismicity rate response to potentially small slow slip (so far undetected by GPS) could help monitoring those small slow slip events. The statistical problem is expressed as a regression between some features extracted from the seismic data and the GPS displacements registered at one or more stations.</p><p>The proposed method, based on a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, has been designed in a way that it is possible to estimate which features are more relevant in the estimation process. From a geophysical point of view, this can provide interesting insights for validating the results, assessing the robustness of the algorithms and giving insights on the underlying process. This kind of approach represents a novelty in this field, since it opens original perspectives for the joint analysis of seismic / aseismic phenomena with respect to traditional methods based on more classical geophysical data exploration.</p>

Afterslip and slow slip events in the postseismic deformation of the 2016 Pedernales earthquake, Ecuador

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederique Rolandone ◽  
Jean-Mathieu nocquet ◽  
Patricia Mothes ◽  
Paul Jarrin ◽  
Mathilde Vergnolle
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Postseismic Deformation ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
North East ◽  
Rupture Area ◽  
Slip Event ◽  
Seismic Swarms

<p>In subduction zones, slip along the plate interface occurs in various modes including earthquakes, steady slip, and transient accelerated aseismic slip during either Slow Slip Events (SSE) or afterslip. We analyze continuous GPS measurements along the central Ecuador subduction segment to illuminate how the different slip modes are organized in space and time in the zone of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake. The early post-seismic period (1 month after the earthquake) shows large and rapid afterslip developing at discrete areas of the megathrust and a slow slip event remotely triggered (∼100 km) south of the rupture of the Pedernales earthquake. We find that areas of large and rapid early afterslip correlate with areas of the subduction interface that had hosted SSEs in years prior to the 2016 earthquake. Areas along the Ecuadorian margin hosting regular SSEs and large afterslip had a dominant aseismic slip mode that persisted throughout the earthquake cycle during several years and decades: they regularly experienced SSEs during the interseismic phase, they did not rupture during the 2016 Pedernales earthquake, they had large aseismic slip after it. Four years after the Pedernales earthquake, postseismic deformation is still on-going. Afterslip and SSEs are both involved in the postseimsic deformation. Two large aftershocks (Mw 6.7 & 6.8) occurred after the first month of postseismic deformation in May 18, and later in July 7 2016 two other large aftershocks (Mw 5.9 & 6.3) occurred, all were located north east of the rupture. They may have triggered their own postseismic deformation. Several seismic swarms were identified south and north of the rupture area by a dense network of seismic stations installed during one year after the Pedernales earthquakes, suggesting the occurrence of SSEs. Geodetically, several SSEs were detected during the postseismic deformation either in areas where no SSEs were detected previously, or in areas where regular seismic swarms and repeating earthquakes were identified. The SSEs may have been triggered by the stress increment due to aftershocks or due to afterslip.</p>

Episodic fluid pressure cycling controls earthquake sequences on subduction megathrusts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Dal Zilio ◽  
Taras Gerya
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Flow ◽  
Finite Difference Methods ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Aseismic Slip ◽  
Earthquake Physics ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Pressure Cycling ◽  
Crustal Stresses

<p>A major goal in earthquake physics is to derive a constitutive framework for fault slip that captures the dependence of friction on lithology, sliding velocity, temperature, and pore fluid pressure. Here, we present a newly-developed two-phase flow numerical model — which couples solid rock deformation and pervasive fluid flow — to show how crustal stresses and fluid pressures within subducting megathrust evolve before and during slow slip and fast events. This unified 2D numerical framework couples inertial mechanical deformation and fluid flow by using finite difference methods, marker-in-cell technique, and poro-visco-elasto-plastic rheology. An adaptive time stepping allows the correct resolution of both long- and short-time scales, ranging from years to milliseconds during the dynamic propagation of dynamic rupture.</p><p>We investigate how permeability and its spatial distribution control the interseismic coupling along the megathrust interface, the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip, and the nucleation of large earthquakes. While a constant permeability leads to more regular seismic cycles, a depth dependent permeability contributes substantially to the development of two distinct megathrust zones: a shallow, locked seismogenic zone and a deep, narrow aseismic segment characterized by slow-slip events. Furthermore, we show that without requiring any specific friction law, our models reveal that permeability, episodic stress transfer and fluid pressure cycling control the predominant slip mode along the subduction megathrust. Furthermore, we analyze how rate dependent strength and dilatation affect rupture propagation and arrest. Our preliminary results show that fluid-solid poro-visco-elasto-plastic coupling behaves similarly to rate- and state-dependent friction. In this context, fluid pressure plays the role of state parameter whose time evolution is governed by: (i) the short-term elasto-plastic collapse of pores inside faults during the rupture (coseismic self-pressurization of faults) and (ii) the long-term pore-pressure diffusion from the faults into surrounding rocks (post- and interseismic relaxation of fluid pressure). This newly-developed numerical framework contributes to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying large megathrust earthquakes, and demonstrate that fluid play a key role in controlling the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip.</p>

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