Evaluation of the new high resolution unstructured grid Marmara Sea model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Ilicak ◽  
Ivan Federico ◽  
Ivano Barletta ◽  
Nadia Pinardi ◽  
Stefania Angela Ciliberti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Unstructured Grid ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Marmara Sea ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
Forecasting System

<p>Marmara Sea including Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits (i.e. Turkish Strait Systems, TSS) is the connection between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. The exchange flow that occurs in the Straits is crucial to set the deep water properties in the Black Sea and the surface water conditions in the Northern Aegean Sea. We have developed a new high-resolution unstructured grid model (U-TSS) for the Marmara Sea including the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits using the System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules (SHYFEM). Using an unstructured grid in the horizontal better resolves geometry of the Turkish Straits. The new model has a resolution between 500 meter in the deep to 50 meter in the shallow areas, and 93 geopotential coordinate levels in the vertical. We conducted a 4 year hindcast simulation between 2016 and 2019 using lateral boundary conditions from CMEMS (https://marine.copernicus.eu/) analysis, in particular Black Sea Forecasting System (BS-FS) for the northern boundary and Mediterranean Sea Forecasting System (MS-FS) for the southern boundary. Atmospheric boundary conditions fare from the ECMWF dataset.</p><p>Mean averaged surface circulation shows that there is a cyclonic gyre in the middle of the basin due to Bosphorus jet flowing to the south and turning to west after reaching the southern Marmara coast. The U-TSS model has been validated against the seasonal in situ observations obtained from four different cruises between 2017 and 2018. The maximum bias occurs at around halocline depth between 20 to 30 meters.  We also found that root mean square error field is higher in the mixed layer interface. We conclude that capturing shallow mixed layer depth is very in the Marmara Sea due to the interplay of air-sea fluxes and mixing parametrizations uncertainties. Maximum salinity bias and rms in the new U-TSS model are around 3 psu which is a significant improvement with respect to previous studies. This new model will be used as an operational forecasting system and will provide lateral boundary conditions for the BS-FS and MS-FS models in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Regional data assimilation of multi-spectral MOPITT observations of CO over North America

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 6801-6814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Jiang ◽  
D. B. A. Jones ◽  
J. Worden ◽  
H. M. Worden ◽  
D. K. Henze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
North American ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Free Troposphere ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions

Abstract. Chemical transport models (CTMs) driven with high-resolution meteorological fields can better resolve small-scale processes, such as frontal lifting or deep convection, and thus improve the simulation and emission estimates of tropospheric trace gases. In this work, we explore the use of the GEOS-Chem four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system with the nested high-resolution version of the model (0.5° × 0.67°) to quantify North American CO emissions during the period of June 2004–May 2005. With optimized lateral boundary conditions, regional inversion analyses can reduce the sensitivity of the CO source estimates to errors in long-range transport and in the distributions of the hydroxyl radical (OH), the main sink for CO. To further limit the potential impact of discrepancies in chemical aging of air in the free troposphere, associated with errors in OH, we use surface-level multispectral MOPITT (Measurement of Pollution in The Troposphere) CO retrievals, which have greater sensitivity to CO near the surface and reduced sensitivity in the free troposphere, compared to previous versions of the retrievals. We estimate that the annual total anthropogenic CO emission from the contiguous US 48 states was 97 Tg CO, a 14 % increase from the 85 Tg CO in the a priori. This increase is mainly due to enhanced emissions around the Great Lakes region and along the west coast, relative to the a priori. Sensitivity analyses using different OH fields and lateral boundary conditions suggest a possible error, associated with local North American OH distribution, in these emission estimates of 20 % during summer 2004, when the CO lifetime is short. This 20 % OH-related error is 50 % smaller than the OH-related error previously estimated for North American CO emissions using a global inversion analysis. We believe that reducing this OH-related error further will require integrating additional observations to provide a strong constraint on the CO distribution across the domain. Despite these limitations, our results show the potential advantages of combining high-resolution regional inversion analyses with global analyses to better quantify regional CO source estimates.

scholarly journals Soil Field Model Interoperability: Challenges and Impact on Screen Temperature Forecast Skill during the Nordic Winter

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1215-1232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jørn Kristiansen ◽  
Dag Bjørge ◽  
John M. Edwards ◽  
Gabriel G. Rooney
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Error Source ◽  
Main Error ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Grid Length

Abstract The high-resolution (4-km grid length) Met Office (UKMO) Unified Model forecasts driven by the coarser-resolution (8-km grid length) High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM), UM4, often produce significantly colder screen-level (2 m) temperatures in winter over Norway than forecast with HIRLAM itself. To diagnose the main error source of this cold bias this study focuses on the forecast initial and lateral boundary conditions, particularly the initialization of soil moisture and temperature. The soil variables may be used differently by land surface schemes of varying complexity, representing a challenge to model interoperability. In a set of five experiments, daily UM4 forecasts are driven by alternating initial and lateral boundary conditions from two different parent models: HIRLAM and Met Office North Atlantic and Europe (NAE). The experiment period is November 2007. Points for scientific examination into the topics of model interoperability and sensitivity to soil initial conditions are identified. The soil moisture is the main error source and is therefore important also in winter, rather than being a challenge only in summer. The day-to-day variability in the forecast error is large with the larger errors on days with strong longwave heat loss at the surface (i.e., the forecast sensitivity to soil moisture content is significant but variable). The much drier soil in HIRLAM compared to NAE reduces the heat capacity of the soil layers and affects the heat flux from the surface soil layer to the surface. Normalizing the respective soil moisture fields reduces these differences. The impact of ground snow is quite limited.

Evolution of the Black Sea Physical Analysis and Forecasting System within CMEMS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefania Angela Ciliberti ◽  
Eric Jansen ◽  
Diana Azevedo ◽  
Murat Gunduz ◽  
Mehmet Ilicak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Sea Surface Height ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Core Model ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Physical Analysis ◽  
Marmara Sea ◽  
Forecasting System

<p>The Black Sea physical analysis and Forecasting System (BSFS) is part of the Black Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (BS-MFC) for the Copernicus Marine Service (CMEMS). It provides analysis every day analysis and 10 days forecast fields for the blue ocean variables (including temperature, salinity, sea surface height, mixed layer depth and currents) in the Black Sea region since. In this work, we present the new version of the operational system that will be part of the next CMEMS  release. The hydrodynamical core model is based on NEMO v4.0, solved on 1/40º horizontal resolution spatial grid (including the overall Black Sea, the Bosporus Strait and part of the Marmara Sea) and 121 vertical levels with z-star. The core model uses ECMWF analysis and forecast atmospheric forcing and GPCP monthly climatological precipitation for computing heat, water and momentum fluxes. A total number of 72 rivers is accounted, as monthly climatology provided by SESAME project. The model implements a new representation of the Danube River with interannual river discharge datasets provided by the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management. One of the main innovations of this system is the opening of the Bosporus Strait by using a box-approach in a portion of the Marmara Sea: it is achieved thanks to high resolution temperature, salinity, sea surface height, zonal and meridional velocity solutions provided by a novel implementation of the Marmara Sea model including straits based on Shyfem: it represents the optimal interface between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. The hydrodynamical model is online coupled to an upgraded version of the OceanVar, the CMCC data assimilation scheme, able to assimilate SLA L3 satellite data, T/S in-situ profiles and SST from CMEMS TACs. The contribution focuses on model setup description, processing system and validation. To evaluate BSFS pre-operational run and monitor the operational production, we provide metrics as proposed within GODAE/Oceanpredict and MERSEA/MyOcean (which includes CLASS 1, 2 and 4 metrics).</p>

scholarly journals Operative forecast of hydrophysical fields in the Georgian Black Sea coastal zone within the ECOOP

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 397-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Kordzadze ◽  
D. I. Demetrashvili
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Regional Area ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. One of the part of the Black Sea Nowcasting/Forecasting System is the regional forecasting system for the Easternmost part of the Black Sea (including the Georgian water area), which have been developed within the context of the EU International projects ARENA and ECOOP. A core of the regional system is a high-resolution baroclinic regional model of the Black Sea dynamics developed at M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics (RM-IG). This model is nested in the basin-scale model (BSM) of Marine Hydrophysical Institute (MHI, Sevastopol/Ukraine). The regional area is limited to the Caucasian and Turkish coastal lines and the western liquid boundary coinciding with a meridian 39.36° E. Since June 2010 we regularly compute 3 days' forecasts of current, temperature and salinity for the Easternmost part of the Black Sea with 1 km spacing. In this study results of two forecasts are presented. The first forecast corresponds to Summer season and covers the prognostic interval from 00:00 h, 6 August to 00:00 h, 9 August 2010. The second one corresponds to Autumn season and covers the prognostic interval from 00:00 h, 26 October to 00:00 h, 29 October 2010. Data needed for the forecasts – the 3-D initial and prognostic hydrophysical fields, also 2-D prognostic meteorological fields at the sea surface, wind stress, heat fluxes, evaporation and precipitation rates for the our regional area are placing on the MHI server every day and we are available to use these data operatively. Prognostic hydrophysical fields are results of forecast by BSM of MHI and 2-D meteorological boundary fields represent results of forecast by regional atmospheric model ALADIN. All these fields are given on the grid of BSM with 5 km spacing and with one-hour time step frequency for the integration period. The analysis of predicted fields shows that to use the model with high resolution is very important factor for identification of nearshore eddies of small sizes. It should be noted very different character of regional circulation in summer and autumn seasons in the Easternmost part of the Black Sea.

Tools and technologies for NEMO models: the case of the Generic Interfaces developed in the framework of IMMERSE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Stefanizzi ◽  
Stefania Ciliberti ◽  
Mehmet Ilicak ◽  
Giovanni Coppini
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Numerical Solutions ◽  
Initial Boundary ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Marmara Sea ◽  
Open Boundary Conditions ◽  
Model Configuration

<p>Setting new model configurations based on NEMO requires the definition of initial/boundary condition and the validation of numerical solutions. In the framework of IMMERSE H2020 project, CMCC is developing new tools and technological capacities for handling in easy and reliable way external products, such CMEMS or coastal ocean data, for research-to-operations applications. Generic Interfaces for NEMO (InterNEMO) allow for 3 main scopes: 1) to access and discover the CMEMS catalogue, including both model and observational data; 2) to manipulate accessed datasets, including coastal ocean data, to extract relevant physical information to use for setting initial/boundary conditions for a new NEMO-based configurations; 3) to prepare NEMO set of upstream files and to validate NEMO solution by using CMEMS observational datasets. InterNEMO implements also technologies to connect a NEMO user to Wekeo DIAS (https://www.wekeo.eu/) for the interoperable accessing and processing of CMEMS data. In this contribution, we present the InterNEMO architecture developed in Python via Jupyter Notebooks, to support the user/researcher to easily discover, design and configure modeling components required by the new NEMO-based configuration. InterNEMO is tested for the Black Sea hydrodynamical model configuration, developed by CMCC in the framework of the Black Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (BS-MFC) for CMEMS a) to show how to access CMEMS observations through Wekeo DIAS and use them to validate numerical solutions and b) to define open boundary conditions from an unstructured grid model configuration based on Shyfem, developed for the Marmara Sea.</p>

scholarly journals Operational forecast of hydrophysical fields in the Georgian Black Sea coastal zone within the ECOOP

Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 793-803 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Kordzadze ◽  
D. I. Demetrashvili
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Regional Area ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. One of the parts of the Black Sea Nowcasting/Forecasting System is the regional forecasting system for the easternmost part of the Black Sea (including the Georgian water area), which has been developed within the context of the EU International projects ARENA and ECOOP. A core of the regional system is a high-resolution baroclinic regional model of the Black Sea dynamics developed at M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics (RM-IG). This model is nested in the basin-scale model of Marine Hydrophysical Institute (MHI, Sevastopol/Ukraine). The regional area is limited to the Caucasian and Turkish coastal lines and the western liquid boundary coinciding with the meridian 39.36° E. Since June 2010 we have regularly been computing 3 days' forecasts of current, temperature and salinity for the easternmost part of the Black Sea with 1 km spacing. In this study the results of two forecasts are presented. The first forecast corresponds to summer season and covers the prognostic interval from 00:00 h, 6 August to 00:00 h, 9 August 2010. The second one corresponds to autumn season and covers the prognostic interval from 00:00 h, 26 October to 00:00 h, 29 October 2010. Data needed for the forecasts – the initial and prognostic hydrophysical fields on the open boundary, also 2-D prognostic meteorological fields at the sea surface – wind stress, heat fluxes, evaporation and precipitation rates for our regional area are being placed on the MHI server every day and we are available to use these data operatively. Prognostic hydrophysical fields are results of forecast by the basin-scale model of MHI and 2-D meteorological boundary fields represent the results of forecast by regional atmospheric model ALADIN. All these fields are given on the grid of basin-scale model with 5 km spacing and with one-hour time step frequency for the integration period. The analysis of predicted fields shows that to use the model with high resolution is very important factor for identification of nearshore eddies of small sizes. It should be noted the very different character of regional circulation in summer and autumn seasons in the easternmost part of the Black Sea.

scholarly journals Regional data assimilation of multi-spectral MOPITT observations of CO over North America

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 5327-5358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Jiang ◽  
D. B. A. Jones ◽  
J. Worden ◽  
H. M. Worden ◽  
D. K. Henze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
North America ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
North American ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Free Troposphere ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions

Abstract. Chemical transport models (CTMs) driven with high-resolution meteorological fields can better resolve small-scale processes, such as frontal lifting or deep convection, and thus improve the simulation and emission estimates of tropospheric trace gases. In this work, we explore the use of the GEOS-Chem four-dimensional variational (4-D-Var) data assimilation system with the nested high-resolution version of the model (0.5° × 0.67°) to quantify North American CO emissions during the period of June 2004 – May 2005. With optimized lateral boundary conditions, regional inversion analyses can reduce the sensitivity of the CO source estimates to errors in long-range transport and in the distributions of the hydroxyl radical (OH), the main sink for CO. To further limit the potential impact of discrepancies in chemical aging of air in the free troposphere, associated with errors in OH, we use surface level multispectral MOPITT CO retrievals, which have greater sensitivity to CO near the surface and reduced sensitivity in the free troposphere, compared to previous versions of the retrievals. We estimate that the annual total anthropogenic CO emission from the contiguous US 48 states was 97 Tg CO, a 14% increase from the 85 Tg CO in the a priori. This increase is mainly due to enhanced emissions around the Great Lakes region and along the west coast, relative to the a priori. Sensitivity analyses using different OH fields and lateral boundary conditions suggest a possible error, associated with local North America OH distribution, in these emission estimates of 20% during summer 2004, when the CO lifetime is short. This 20% OH-related error is 50% smaller than the OH-related error previously estimated for North American CO emissions using a global inversion analysis. We believe that reducing this OH-related error further will require integrating additional observations to provide a strong constraint on the CO distribution across the domain. Despite these limitations, our results show the potential advantages of combining high-resolution regional inversion analyses with global analyses to better quantify regional CO source estimates.

scholarly journals Limited-Area Atmospheric Modeling Using an Unstructured Mesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (10) ◽  
pp. 3445-3460 ◽  
Author(s):  
William C. Skamarock ◽  
Michael G. Duda ◽  
Soyoung Ha ◽  
Sang-Hun Park
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Variable Resolution ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
Perfect Model ◽  
Global Variable

Abstract A regional configuration of the atmospheric component of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS-A) is described and evaluated. It employs horizontally unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi meshes (nominally hexagonal), and lateral boundary conditions used in rectangular grid regional models are adapted to the MPAS-A Voronoi mesh discretization. Test results using a perfect-model assumption show that the lateral boundary conditions are stable and robust. As found in other regional modeling studies, configurations using larger regional domains generally have smaller solution errors compared to configurations employing smaller regional domains. MPAS-A supports variable-resolution meshes, and when regional domains are expanded to include a coarser outer mesh, the variable-resolution configurations recover most of the error reduction compared to a configuration using uniform high resolution, and at much-reduced cost. The wider relaxation-zone region of the variable-resolution mesh also helps reconcile differences near the lateral boundary that evolve between the regional model solution and the driving solution, and the configuration is more stable than one using a uniform high-resolution regional mesh. At convection-permitting resolution, solutions produced using global variable-resolution MPAS-A configurations have smaller solution errors than the regional configurations after about 48 h.

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