Analyzing competing land use policy objectives under climate change – a regional case study from Austria

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrin Karner ◽  
Hermine Mitter ◽  
Erwin Schmid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Nitrate Leaching ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Groundwater Extraction ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Abandoned Land ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Net Benefits

<p>In the semi-arid Seewinkel region in Austria, competing demands exist for land and water such as from agriculture, nature protection, tourism and settlements. In addition, water quality problems are prevalent due to nitrate leaching in groundwater in the region. Climate change likely will amplify existing resource demands and environmental impacts, imposing considerable challenges for adapting and regulating agriculture in the Seewinkel. Hence, compromises between competing policy objectives are needed. <br>The aim of this presentation is to assess efficient land and water management strategies considering several economic and agro-ecological policy objectives in the Seewinkel region in context of climate scenarios. A multi-objective optimization experiment was performed with an integrated modelling framework to compute agro-economic-ecological Pareto frontiers. The frontiers combine levels of (i) net benefits from agricultural production, (ii) groundwater extraction for agricultural irrigation, (iii) nitrate leaching from agricultural production, and (iv) topsoil organic carbon stocks. 30 stochastic realizations of three climate scenarios are considered for a future period of 31 years: WET, SIMILAR and DRY, which mainly differ regarding annual precipitation volumes. <br>Model results show that a 1% (20%) reduction of agricultural net benefits can lower groundwater extraction by 11-83% (61-100%) and nitrate leaching by 18-19% (49-53%) as well as increase topsoil organic carbon sequestration by 1% (5%) depending on the climate scenario. However, substantial changes in land use and management would be required. For instance, less groundwater extraction by 11-83% requires a 6-21% reduction of irrigated cropland, a 21-33% reduction of highly fertilized cropland, a 10-24% increase of grassland, and a 23-52% increase of abandoned land depending on the climate scenario. Less nitrate leaching by 18-19% (or higher topsoil organic carbon stocks by 1%) require that highly fertilized cropland decreases by 9-13% (4-7%), abandoned land increases by 5-9% (19-49%) and grassland either declines by 3% (14%) or increases by up to 5% (32%) depending on the climate scenario. In general, the share of grassland increases in the wetter climate scenario.<br>Overall, the analysis reveals that especially groundwater extraction and nitrate leaching can be reduced substantially for fairly small reduction in agricultural net benefits in all climate scenarios. 50% of maximum modelled improvements of agro-ecological objectives can be already achieved at 1-15% reductions of agricultural net benefit depending on climate scenarios. Thus, respective land use policies would allow considerable improvements of the agro-ecological performance at relatively low costs. However, improving the agro-ecological performance beyond a particular level can quickly lead to high reductions of agricultural net benefits, as depicted by the non-linear form of the Pareto frontiers. This is mainly related to large declines of cropland and increases in grassland or abandoned land. Furthermore, the results indicate that water management policies are less costly than climate change mitigation policies, at least in the Seewinkel region.</p>

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 10461-10494 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Steffens ◽  
M. Larsbo ◽  
J. Moeys ◽  
E. Kjellström ◽  
N. Jarvis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Data Set ◽  
South West ◽  
Climate Uncertainty ◽  
Pesticide Losses ◽  
Pesticide Leaching

Abstract. The assessment of climate change impacts on the risk for pesticide leaching needs careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-west Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM), greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO-model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999) for an important agricultural production area in south-west Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios could provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses and assessments of changes in pesticide leaching risks.

Accounting for soil organic carbon role in land use contribution to climate change in agricultural LCA: which methods? Which impacts?

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 1217-1230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Bessou ◽  
Aurélie Tailleur ◽  
Caroline Godard ◽  
Armelle Gac ◽  
Julie Lebas de la Cour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon

scholarly journals From field to stream: Tracing streambed organic carbon origins at a catchment scale

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katy Wiltshire ◽  
Miriam Glendell ◽  
Toby Waine ◽  
Robert Grabowski ◽  
Barry Thornton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Sediment Fingerprinting ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Erosion Modelling ◽  
River Corridor ◽  
Soil Loss Equation ◽  
Unmixing Model

<p>Quantifying organic carbon (OC) levels and the processes altering them is key in unlocking soils potential as a mediator of climate change through sequestration of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>. In areas of high soil erosion increased fluxes of OC across the terrestrial-aquatic interface are likely and understanding these fluxes is crucial in integrating lateral OC fluxes within the carbon cycle. For this study of a small UK catchment, OC mapping and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) based erosion modelling provided estimates of proportional soil OC loss coming from each land use. Sediment fingerprinting using <em>n</em>-alkane biomarkers and a Bayesian unmixing model provided a comparison of streambed OC proportions by land use to assess which processes were dominating OC input to streams. Results showed that RUSLE-based soil OC loss proportions exhibited disconnect with sediment fingerprinting OC composition and the river corridor and riparian environment were key zones in regulating terrestrial to aquatic fluxes of OC.</p>

scholarly journals Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 4360
Author(s):  
Andrew K. Marondedze ◽  
Brigitta Schütt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Soil Erosion Risk ◽  
Loss Rates

Monitoring urban area expansion through multispectral remotely sensed data and other geomatics techniques is fundamental for sustainable urban planning. Forecasting of future land use land cover (LULC) change for the years 2034 and 2050 was performed using the Cellular Automata Markov model for the current fast-growing Epworth district of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe. The stochastic CA–Markov modelling procedure validation yielded kappa statistics above 80%, ascertaining good agreement. The spatial distribution of the LULC classes CBD/Industrial area, water and irrigated croplands as projected for 2034 and 2050 show slight notable changes. For projected scenarios in 2034 and 2050, low–medium-density residential areas are predicted to increase from 11.1 km2 to 12.3 km2 between 2018 and 2050. Similarly, high-density residential areas are predicted to increase from 18.6 km2 to 22.4 km2 between 2018 and 2050. Assessment of the effects of future climate change on potential soil erosion risk for Epworth district were undertaken by applying the representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate scenarios, and model ensemble averages from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were used to derive the rainfall erosivity factor for the RUSLE model. Average soil loss rates for both climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were predicted to be high in 2034 due to the large spatial area extent of croplands and disturbed green spaces exposed to soil erosion processes, therefore increasing potential soil erosion risk, with RCP4.5 having more impact than RCP8.5 due to a higher applied rainfall erosivity. For 2050, the predicted wide area average soil loss rates declined for both climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, following the predicted decline in rainfall erosivity and vulnerable areas that are erodible. Overall, high potential soil erosion risk was predicted along the flanks of the drainage network for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in 2050.

scholarly journals Restoration of degraded lands for carbon stock enhancement and climate change mitigation: the case of Rebu watershed, Woliso Woreda, Southwest Shoa, Ethiopia

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 3387-3396
Author(s):  
Diriba Megersa Soboka ◽  
Fantaw Yimer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Carbon Stock ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Land Use Type ◽  
Degraded Lands ◽  
Change Mitigation

This study was conducted to estimate carbon stock enhancement and climate change mitigation potential of restoration effort in Rebu Watershed, Woliso Woreda, Ethiopia. Two restored lands of thirteen years old were randomly selected from two kebeles. Biomass and soil data were collected systematically from nested plots. Mensuration of woody species, soil, and grass/litter samples was collected from the subplots of the nested plots. A total of 72 composite soil samples were collected. The results showed the positive impact of restoration activity on enhancing biomass and soil organic carbon stocks. The restored land ecosystem had shown higher carbon stock of (138.51 ± 27.34 t/ha) than the adjacent unrestored land ecosystem (101.43 ± 21.25 t/ha), which confirmed the potential of restoration in enhancing the carbon stock and mitigating climate change. Hence, the restored land use type has been stored about 8.37 t/ha of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in biomasses. The restored land use type has mitigated climate change (absorb CO2) by 7.7 times than the adjacent unrestored land use type in this study. The significant values in restored land use types were due to the enhanced vegetation and land cover, which contributed to the biomass and soil organic carbon accumulation. Moreover, the lower values in unrestored land use type were due to the continuous degradation and disturbance from livestock and human beings. Therefore, the result of this study showed that protecting the degraded lands from any disturbance could enhance the carbon stocks of the ecosystem and mitigate the carbon emission rate.

scholarly journals Global soil organic carbon removal by water erosion under climate change and land use change during 1850–2005 AD

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Naipal ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Yilong Wang ◽  
Ronny Lauerwald ◽  
Bertrand Guenet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon

Abstract. The onset and expansion of agriculture has accelerated soil erosion by rainfall and runoff substantially, mobilizing vast quantities of soil organic carbon (SOC) globally. Studies show that at timescales of decennia to millennia this mobilized SOC can significantly alter previously estimated carbon emissions from land use change (LUC). However, a full understanding of the impact of erosion on land-atmosphere carbon exchange is still missing. The aim of our study is to better constrain the terrestrial carbon fluxes by developing methods compatible with Earth System Models (ESMs) in order to explicitly represent the links between soil erosion by rainfall and runoff and carbon dynamics. For this we use an emulator that represents the carbon cycle of a land surface model, in combination with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model. We applied this modeling framework at the global scale to evaluate the effects of potential soil erosion (soil removal only) in the presence of other perturbations of the carbon cycle: elevated atmospheric CO2, climate variability, and LUC. We found that over the period 1850–2005 AD acceleration of soil erosion leads to a total potential SOC removal flux of 100 Pg C of which 80 % occurs on agricultural, pasture and natural grass lands. Including soil erosion in the SOC-dynamics scheme results in a doubling of the cumulative loss of SOC over 1850–2005 due to the combined effects of climate variability, increasing atmospheric CO2 and LUC. This additional erosional loss decreases the cumulative global carbon sink on land by 5 Pg for this specific period, with the largest effects found for the tropics, where deforestation and agricultural expansion increased soil erosion rates significantly. We also show that the potential effects of soil erosion on the global SOC stocks cannot be ignored when compared to the effects of climate change or land use change on the carbon cycle. We conclude that it is necessary to include soil erosion in assessments of LUC and evaluations of the terrestrial carbon cycle.

scholarly journals Effects of climate change and land management on soil organic carbon dynamics and carbon leaching in northwestern Europe

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1519-1536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Stergiadi ◽  
Marcel van der Perk ◽  
Ton C. M. de Nijs ◽  
Marc F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Century Model ◽  
Precipitation Effect ◽  
Land Use Types

Abstract. Climate change and land management practices are projected to significantly affect soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils. In this modelling study, we adopted the Century model to simulate past (1906–2012), present, and future (2013–2100) SOC and DOC levels for sandy and loamy soils typical of northwestern European conditions under three land use types (forest, grassland, and arable land) and several future scenarios addressing climate change and land management change. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the Century model has been applied to assess the effects of climate change and land management on DOC concentrations and leaching rates, which, in combination with SOC, play a major role in metal transport through soil. The simulated current SOC levels were generally in line with the observed values for the different kinds of soil and land use types. The climate change scenarios result in a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the agricultural systems, whereas for the forest systems, SOC is projected to slightly increase and DOC to decrease. An analysis of the sole effects of changes in temperature and changes in precipitation showed that, for SOC, the temperature effect predominates over the precipitation effect, whereas for DOC the precipitation effect is more prominent. A reduction in the application rates of fertilisers under the land management scenario leads to a decrease in the SOC stocks and the DOC leaching rates for the arable land systems, but it has a negligible effect on SOC and DOC levels for the grassland systems. Our study demonstrated the ability of the Century model to simulate climate change and agricultural management effects on SOC dynamics and DOC leaching, providing a robust tool for the assessment of carbon sequestration and the implications for contaminant transport in soils.

A global overview of studies about land management, land‐use change, and climate change effects on soil organic carbon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien Beillouin ◽  
Rémi Cardinael ◽  
David Berre ◽  
Annie Boyer ◽  
Marc Corbeels ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Climate Change Effects
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