scholarly journals Local-scale wind speed features captured by seasonal forecasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaume Ramon ◽  
Llorenç Lledó ◽  
Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière ◽  
Margarida Samsó ◽  
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes

<p>Thanks to the recent advances in climate modelling, seasonal predictions are becoming more skilful at anticipating the future state of near-surface climate variables over extratropics. Nevertheless, such predictions are delivered on too coarse grids with horizontal resolutions of hundreds of kilometres so that local events happening at much finer scales cannot be reproduced. This is particularly noted for variables with high spatial variability like wind or precipitation: wind speeds can vary substantially over a few kilometres, from the top of a mountain to a valley floor. The differences in magnitude might be relevant for the deriving sectoral indicators, for example, within the wind industry and at a wind farm level.</p><p>This work presents and applies a downscaling methodology to generate fine-scale seasonal forecasts ---up to station scale--- for near-surface wind speeds in Europe. The hybrid forecasts are based on a statistical downscaling with a perfect prognosis approach, fitting a multi-linear regression with the four main Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections (EATC) indices as predictors. Seasonal predictions of EATC indices, which are predictable with relatively good skill levels, are later inserted into the multi-linear model. This results in skilful seasonal predictions of surface wind speeds. Indeed, the comparison of the hybrid forecasts against the dynamical forecasts of wind speed shows that the skill of such forecasts is not only maintained but also increased over most of Europe. The hybrid forecasts are generated at 17 locations where tall tower wind speed data are available and at a pan-European scale using the 100-metre wind speeds from the ERA5 reanalysis. Improving the accuracy of seasonal predictions is an essential step to inform weather-and-climate-vulnerable socio-economic sectors of seasonal anomalies a few months ahead.</p>

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6889-6899
Author(s):  
Robert R. Nelson ◽  
Annmarie Eldering ◽  
David Crisp ◽  
Aronne J. Merrelli ◽  
Christopher W. O'Dell

Abstract. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed over the ocean inform a wide variety of scientific pursuits. While both active and passive microwave sensors are traditionally used to detect surface wind speed over water surfaces, measurements of reflected sunlight in the near-infrared made by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) are also sensitive to the wind speed. In this work, retrieved wind speeds from OCO-2 glint measurements are validated against the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR2). Both sensors are in the international Afternoon Constellation (A-Train), allowing for a large number of co-located observations. Several different OCO-2 retrieval algorithm modifications are tested, with the most successful being a single-band Cox–Munk-only model. Using this, we find excellent agreement between the two sensors, with OCO-2 having a small mean bias against AMSR2 of −0.22 m s−1, an RMSD of 0.75 m s−1, and a correlation coefficient of 0.94. Although OCO-2 is restricted to clear-sky measurements, potential benefits of its higher spatial resolution relative to microwave instruments include the study of coastal wind processes, which may be able to inform certain economic sectors.


Author(s):  
Shakeel Asharaf ◽  
Duane E. Waliser ◽  
Derek J. Posselt ◽  
Christopher S. Ruf ◽  
Chidong Zhang ◽  
...  

AbstractSurface wind plays a crucial role in many local/regional weather and climate processes, especially through the exchanges of energy, mass and momentum across the Earth’s surface. However, there is a lack of consistent observations with continuous coverage over the global tropical ocean. To fill this gap, the NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission was launched in December 2016, consisting of a constellation of eight small spacecrafts that remotely sense near surface wind speed over the tropical and sub-tropical oceans with relatively high sampling rates both temporally and spatially. This current study uses data obtained from the Tropical Moored Buoy Arrays to quantitatively characterize and validate the CYGNSS derived winds over the tropical Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans. The validation results show that the uncertainty in CYGNSS wind speed, as compared with these tropical buoy data, is less than 2 m s-1 root mean squared difference, meeting the NASA science mission Level-1 uncertainty requirement for wind speeds below 20 m s-1. The quality of the CYGNSS wind is further assessed under different precipitation conditions, and in convective cold-pool events, identified using buoy rain and temperature data. Results show that CYGNSS winds compare fairly well with buoy observations in the presence of rain, though at low wind speeds the presence of rain appears to cause a slight positive wind speed bias in the CYGNSS data. The comparison indicates the potential utility of the CYGNSS surface wind product, which in turn may help to unravel the complexities of air-sea interaction in regions that are relatively under-sampled by other observing platforms.


1998 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 515-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Allison

Data from six automatic weather stations deployed around the interior of the Lambert Glacier basin, Antarctica, at surface elevations of 1830-2741 m are used to compile a surface climatology of this part of interior Antarctica for the period 1994-96. The stations measure air pressure, near-surface wind speed and air temperature at several levels, wind direction and firn temperatures. The topography of the basin, which extends more than 800 km inland, controls the katabatic wind regime and strongly influences the surface climate of the region. Windiest sites are on the steep coastal slopes, and within the depression of the Lambert and Mellor Ice Streams where the flow is topographically channelled. Surface winds here show greater seasonal variation in speed but less variation in direction than elsewhere. The annual mean temperatures on the relatively steep slopes on the eastern side of the basin are 4-5°C warmer than at equivalent altitude on the western side. During winter, near-synchronous synoptic temperature and pressure increases occur throughout the basin to at least 1000 km from the coast. There is a consistent pattern of diurnal wind variation in the summer at all stations, with maximum wind speed at about 0900 LST (local solar time), and the most easterly direction at 1300 LST.


2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (10) ◽  
pp. 2229-2245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey T. Daines ◽  
Adam H. Monahan ◽  
Charles L. Curry

AbstractNear-surface wind is important in forestry, agriculture, air pollution, building energy use, and wind power generation. In western Canada it presently plays a minor role in power generation, but ongoing reductions in the cost of wind power infrastructure and the increasing costs of conventional power generation (including environmental costs) motivate the assessment of the projected future wind climate and uncertainties in this projection. Multiple realizations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) at 45-km resolution were driven by two global climate models over the periods 1971–2000 (using historical greenhouse gas concentrations) and 2031–60 (using the SRES-A2 concentration scenario). Hourly wind speeds from 30 stations were analyzed over 1971–2000 and used to calibrate downscaled ensembles of projected wind speed distributions over 2031–60. At most station locations modest increases in mean wind speed were found for a majority of the projections, but with an ensemble spread of the same order of magnitude as the increases. Relative changes in mean wind speeds at station locations were found to be insensitive to the station observations and calibration technique. In view of this result, projected relative changes in future wind climate over the entire CRCM domain were estimated using uncalibrated pairs of past-period and future-period wind speed distributions. The relative changes are robust, in the sense that their ensemble mean relative change is greater than their standard deviation, but are not very substantial, in the sense that their ensemble mean change is generally less than the standard deviation of their annual means.


2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1209-1225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Wan ◽  
Xiaolan L. Wang ◽  
Val R. Swail

Abstract Near-surface wind speeds recorded at 117 stations in Canada for the period from 1953 to 2006 were analyzed in this study. First, metadata and a logarithmic wind profile were used to adjust hourly wind speeds measured at nonstandard anemometer heights to the standard 10-m level. Monthly mean near-surface wind speed series were then derived and subjected to a statistical homogeneity test, with homogeneous monthly mean geostrophic wind (geowind) speed series being used as reference series. Homogenized monthly mean near-surface wind speed series were obtained by adjusting all significant mean shifts, using the results of the statistical test and modeling along with all available metadata, and were used to assess the long-term trends. This study shows that station relocation and anemometer height change are the main causes for discontinuities in the near-surface wind speed series, followed by instrumentation problems or changes, and observing environment changes. It also shows that the effects of artificial mean shifts on the results of trend analysis are remarkable, and that the homogenized near-surface wind speed series show good spatial consistency of trends, which are in agreement with long-term trends estimated from independent datasets, such as surface winds in the United States and cyclone activity indices and ocean wave heights in the region. These indicate success in the homogenization of the wind data. During the period analyzed, the homogenized near-surface wind speed series show significant decreases throughout western Canada and most parts of southern Canada (except the Maritimes) in all seasons, with significant increases in the central Canadian Arctic in all seasons and in the Maritimes in spring and autumn.


Author(s):  
Y. El. Hadri ◽  
M. Slizhe ◽  
K. Sernytska

The purpose of the study is to determine the features of the spatial distribution of the wind speed in Marrakesh - Safi region in 2021-2050, as well as the distribution of the specific power of the wind flow at various altitudes above the earth’s surface to determine the wind class of the area in the coming decades. Currently, the region has two large wind farms: Essaouira-Amogdoul and Tarfayer. To assess the future state of climate in Marrakesh − Safi region, the results of calculations of regional climate models (RCM) of the CORDEX-Africa project for the period 2021-2050 were used. The RCM modeling was carried out for the region of Africa, in a rectangular coordinate system with a spatial resolution of ~ 44 km. Model calculation was performed taking into account the greenhouse gas concentration trajectory of RCP 4.5. As a result of simulation for the period 2021-2050, mean monthly values of wind speed "sfcWind" (m·s-1) and the daily maximum near-surface wind speed "sfcwindmax" (m·s-1) at 10 m height were obtained. Then, based on the wind speed rows, the values of the wind power density at a height of 50 m and 100 m were calculated. The results of model calculations of wind speed showed that the ensemble mean of wind speed for the period 2021-2050 will be from 3.8 m∙s-1 in Kelaat Sraghna Province to 7.2 m∙s-1 on the stretch of the Atlantic coast between Cap Sim and Cap Tafelny.The distribution over the territory will be influenced by proximity to the ocean, models predict the highest wind speeds on the coast, and when moving deep into the region, the wind speed will decrease.The analysis of simulation results showed that in the coastal areas of the region favorable conditions in terms of wind energy development will remain, and the highest wind speeds of the model are predicted on the Atlantic coast between Cap Sim and Cap Tafelny. By the size of the specific power of the wind flow, significant wind resources will have the territory lying along the coast from Cap Sim to the southern border of the region, and in the area of the power plants Essaouira-Amogdoul and Tarfayer models predict the conditions corresponding to the outstanding wind power class.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Cheng Shen ◽  
Jinlin Zha ◽  
Jian Wu ◽  
Deming Zhao

AbstractInvestigations of variations and causes of near-surface wind speed (NWS) further understanding of the atmospheric changes and improve the ability of climate analysis and projections. NWS varies on multiple temporal scales; however, the centennial-scale variability in NWS and associated causes over China remains unknown. In this study, we employ the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA-20C) to study the centennial-scale changes in NWS from 1900–2010. Meanwhile, a forward stepwise regression algorithm is used to reveal the relationships between NWS and large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations. The results show three unique periods in annual mean NWS over China from 1900–2010. The annual mean NWS displayed a decreasing trend of -0.87% decade-1 and -11.75% decade-1 from 1900–1925 and 1957–2010, respectively, which were caused by the decreases in the days with strong winds, with trends of -6.64 and -4.66 days decade-1, respectively. The annual mean NWS showed an upward trend of 55.47% decade-1 from 1926–1956, which was caused by increases in the days with moderate (0.43 days decade-1) and strong winds (23.55 days decade-1). The reconstructed wind speeds based on forward stepwise regression algorithm matched well with the original wind speeds; therefore, the decadal changes in NWS over China at centennial-scale were mainly induced by large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations, with the total explanation power of 66%. The strongest explanation power was found in winter (74%), and the weakest explanation power was found in summer (46%).


2002 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
pp. 679 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. A. Cleugh ◽  
D. E. Hughes

The purpose of this paper is to synthesise data from the literature, and acquired during an extensive set of wind tunnel and field experiments, to quantify the effect of porous windbreaks on airflow, microclimates and evaporation fluxes. The paper considers flow oriented both normal (i.e. at right angles) and oblique to the windbreak, in addition to the confounding effects of topography. The wind tunnel results confirm the validity of the turbulent mixing layer as a model for characterising the airflow around a windbreak and for predicting the locations of the quiet and wake zones. This mixing layer is initiated at the top of the windbreak and grows with distance downwind until it intersects the vegetation or surface, marking the downwind extent of the quiet zone where the maximum shelter occurs. The 3 factors that determine the growth of this mixing layer are the windbreak porosity, windbreak height and the nature of the terrain upwind. For wind that is flowing normal to a porous windbreak in the field, the latter 2 have the primary influence on the size of the sheltered zone, while windbreak porosity is the main factor determining the amount of shelter. Analyses of the effect of porosity revealed that the amount of wind shelter increases as windbreak porosity is reduced, but the downwind extent of the sheltered zone does not vary with windbreak porosity. Thus, the suggestion from older studies that low-porosity (i.e. dense) windbreaks lead to a reduced sheltered area is not supported by the wind tunnel measurements. In the absence of shading effects, temperature and/or humidity are increased in the quiet zone, mirroring the pattern and magnitude of wind shelter. Thus, the increase in temperature and humidity is greatest where the minimum wind speed occurs, and the magnitude of the increase is smaller for more porous windbreaks. The humidity and air (but not surface) temperatures are decreased very slightly in the wake zone, although these small changes were not significant in a field situation. Microclimate changes, therefore, occur over a much smaller distance downwind than wind shelter, and are negligible for the very porous windbreak. For example, at 20 windbreak heights downwind, the wind speed may still be 80% of its upwind value, while the air and surface temperature and humidity have returned to their upwind values after 12–15 windbreak heights. Furthermore, these changes in temperature and humidity vary with the type of land cover, surface moisture status and the temperature and humidity of the 'regional' air. Over the course of a growing season, these changes can be masked by soil and climate variability. The turbulent scalar fluxes, i.e. evaporation and heat fluxes, also differ from the pattern of near-surface wind speeds. While significantly reduced in the quiet zone, they show a very large peak at the start of the wake zone — the location where the mixing layer intersects the surface. Thus, caution is required when extrapolating from the spatial pattern of shelter to microclimates and turbulent fluxes. Wind flowing at angles other than normal to the windbreak has 2 effects on the pattern of wind shelter. First, for the medium and low porosity windbreaks used in the wind tunnel, the amount of wind shelter is increased slightly in the bleed flow region near the windbreak, i.e. there is an apparent reduction in windbreak porosity as the wind direction becomes more oblique to the windbreak. Second, the profile of near surface wind speeds is similar to that for flow oriented normal to the windbreak, providing that the changes in distance from the windbreak are accounted for using simple geometry. The field data agree with these results, but show an even greater influence of the windbreak structure on the pattern of wind shelter in the bleed flow region, extending from the windbreak to at least 3 windbreak heights downwind, precluding any generalisations about the flow in this region.


2020 ◽  
Vol 129 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dandan Zhou ◽  
Shengrong Hu ◽  
Xiaohong Dang ◽  
Jinrong Li ◽  
Chunxing Hai ◽  
...  

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 5425
Author(s):  
Justė Jankevičienė ◽  
Arvydas Kanapickas

Developing wind energy in Lithuania is one of the most important ways to achieve green energy goals. Observational data show that the decline in wind speeds in the region may pose challenges for wind energy development. This study analyzed the long-term variation of the observed 2006–2020 and projected 2006–2100 near-surface wind speed at the height of 10 m over Lithuanian territory using data of three models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). A slight decrease in wind speeds was found in the whole territory of Lithuania for the projected wind speed data of three global circulation models for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. It was found that the most favorable scenario for wind energy production is RCP2.6, and the most unfavorable is the RCP4.5 scenario under which the decrease in wind speed may reach 12%. At the Baltic Sea coastal region, the decline was smaller than in the country’s inner regions by the end of the century. The highest reduction in speed is characteristic of the most severe RCP8.5 scenario. Although the analysis of wind speeds projected by global circulation models (GCM) confirms the downward trends in wind speeds found in the observational data, the projected changes in wind speeds are too small to significantly impact the development of wind farms in Lithuania.


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