scholarly journals Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.5

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 6467-6494
Author(s):  
Abhijeet Mishra ◽  
Florian Humpenöder ◽  
Jan Philipp Dietrich ◽  
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky ◽  
Brent Sohngen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Timber Production ◽  
Land Resources ◽  
Natural Forests ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Land System ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
Timber Plantations

Abstract. Out of 1150 Mha (million hectares) of forest designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations accounted for 11 % (131 Mha) of this area and fulfilled more than 33 % of the global industrial roundwood demand. However, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand intensifies competition for scarce land resources between different land uses such as food, feed, livestock and timber production. Despite the significance of plantations with respect to roundwood production, their importance in meeting the long-term timber demand and the implications of plantation expansion for overall land-use dynamics have not been studied in detail, in particular regarding the competition for land between agriculture and forestry in existing land-use models. This paper describes the extension of the modular, open-source land system Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) using a detailed representation of forest land, timber production and timber demand dynamics. These extensions allow for a better understanding of the land-use dynamics (including competition for land) and the associated land-use change emissions of timber production. We show that the spatial cropland patterns differ when timber production is accounted for, indicating that timber plantations compete with cropland for the same scarce land resources. When plantations are established on cropland, it causes cropland expansion and deforestation elsewhere. Using the exogenous extrapolation of historical roundwood production from plantations, future timber demand and plantation rotation lengths, we model the future spatial expansion of forest plantations. As a result of increasing timber demand, we show a 177 % increase in plantation area by the end of the century (+171 Mha in 1995–2100). We also observe (in our model results) that the increasing demand for timber amplifies the scarcity of land, which is indicated by shifting agricultural land-use patterns and increasing yields from cropland compared with a case without forestry. Through the inclusion of new forest plantation and natural forest dynamics, our estimates of land-related CO2 emissions better match with observed data, in particular the gross land-use change emissions and carbon uptake (via regrowth), reflecting higher deforestation with the expansion of managed land and timber production as well as higher regrowth in natural forests and plantations.

scholarly journals Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhijeet Mishra ◽  
Florian Humpenöder ◽  
Jan Philipp Dietrich ◽  
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky ◽  
Brent Sohngen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Timber Production ◽  
Land Resources ◽  
Natural Forests ◽  
Land System ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
Land Use Models ◽  
Timber Plantations ◽  
Increasing Demand

Abstract. Out of 1150 Mha of forests designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations account for 11 % (131 Mha) of area and fulfilled more than 33 % of the global industrial roundwood demand. Yet, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand increases competition for scarce land resources between different land-uses for food, feed, livestock and timber production. Despite their significance in roundwood production, the importance of timber plantations in meeting the long-term timber demand and the implications of plantation expansion for overall land-use dynamics have not been studied in detail so far, in particular not the competition for land between agriculture and forestry in existing land-use models. This paper describes the extension of the modular, open-source land-system Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) by a detailed representation of forest land, timber production and timber demand dynamics. These extensions allow for understanding the land-use dynamics (including competition for land) and associated land-use change emissions of timber production. We show that the spatial cropland patterns differ when timber production is accounted for, indicating that timber plantations compete with cropland for the same scarce land resources. When plantations are established on cropland, it causes cropland expansion and deforestation elsewhere. As a result of increasing timber demand, we show an increase in plantations area by 140 % until the end of the century (+132 Mha in 1995–2100). We also observe in our model results that the increasing demand for timber increases scarcity of land, and causes intensification through yield increasing technological change by 117 % in croplands by 2100 relative to 1995. Through the inclusion of new forest plantation and natural forest dynamics, our estimates of land-related CO2 emissions match better with observed data in particular the gross land-use change emissions and carbon uptake (via regrowth), reflecting higher deforestation for expansion of managed land and timber production, and higher regrowth in natural forests as well as plantations.

scholarly journals Current and Future Land Use Characters of a National Central City in Eco-Fragile Region—A Case Study in Xi’an City Based on FLUS Model

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 286
Author(s):  
Dingrao Feng ◽  
Wenkai Bao ◽  
Meichen Fu ◽  
Min Zhang ◽  
Yiyu Sun
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Pattern Change ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Xi’An City

Land use change plays a key role in terrestrial systems and drives the process of ecological pattern change. It is important to investigate the process of land use change, predict land use patterns, and reveal the characteristics of land use dynamics. In this study, we adopted the Markov model and future land use (FLUS) model to predict the future land use conditions in Xi’an city. Furthermore, we investigated the characteristics of land use change from a novel perspective, i.e., via establishment of a complex network model. This model captured the characteristics of the land use system during different periods. The results indicated that urban expansion and cropland loss played an important role in land use pattern change. The future gravity center of urban development moved along the opposite direction to that from 2000 to 2015 in Xi’an city. Although the rate of urban expansion declined in the future, urban expansion remained the primary driver of land use change. The primary urban development directions were east-southeast (ENE), north-northeast (NNE) and west-southwest (WSW) from 1990 to 2000, 2000 to 2015, and 2015 to 2030, respectively. In fact, cropland played a vital role in land use dynamics regarding all land use types, and the stability of the land use system decreased in the future. Our study provides future land use patterns and a novel perspective to better understand land use change.

scholarly journals Land-Use Harmonization Datasets for Annual Global Carbon Budgets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Chini ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
Ritvik Sahajpal ◽  
Steve Frolking ◽  
Kees Klein Goldewijk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Grazing Area ◽  
Global Carbon ◽  
Area Data

Abstract. Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period, and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-the-art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for CMIP6 simulations, has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual FAO wood harvest data updates for dataset years after 2015 and HYDE gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of one or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil, as far back as 1950. From 1951–2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100,000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77,000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time-lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

scholarly journals Perubahan Penggunaan Tanah dan Faktor Pendorongnya di Kabupaten Karimun

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Rangga Olenka ◽  
Adrimas Adrimas ◽  
Melinda Noer
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Free Trade Zone ◽  
Forest Conversion ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns

ABSTRACTEarly detection is important to looking at the phenomenon of massive land use changes. Karimun Regency is one of the areas designated as one of the National Strategic Areas (KSN) for the benefit of economic growth. In addition, parts of the Karimun Regency are also designated as Free Trade Zone (FTZ). This has led to changes in land use patterns. This study analyzes changes in land use in Karimun Regency and its driving factors. Analysis of land use changes was carried out using land use map  and socio-economic data in 2008 - 2017. Methods of data analysis using spatial analysis and analysis of driving factors. The results showed that there were significant changes that occurred in land use. The rate of forest conversion and the decline in the area of agricultural land are very alarming. Growth of the built up area continues to increase. Development pattern of built area only concentrates on center of economic activity that already exists and also on transportation routes. Meanwhile the drivers of change in land use vary. Economic factors such as GRDP Karimun Regency and Investment and social factors such as urbanization and residents working in the primary sector drives land use change in Karimun Regency in 2008 – 2017. Key words: land use, land use change, driven factor ABSTRAKDeteksi dini penting dalam melihat fenomena perubahan penggunaan tanah yang masif. Kabupaten Karimun merupakan salah satu wilayah yang ditetapkan sebagai salah satu Kawasan Strategis Nasional (KSN) untuk kepentingan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Selain itu sebagian wilayah Kabupaten Karimun juga ditetapkan sebagai Kawasan Perdagangan Bebas dan Pelabuhan Bebas (Free Trade Zone). Hal tersebut mendorong perubahan pola penggunaan tanah. Studi ini menganalisis perubahan penggunaan tanah dan faktor pendorongnya yang terjadi di Kabupaten Karimun. Analisis perubahan penggunaan tanah dilakukan menggunakan peta penggunaan tanah dan data sosial ekonomi pada tahun 2008 - 2017. Metode analisis data menggunakan analisis spasial dan analisis faktor pendorong. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ada perubahan signifikan yang terjadi pada penggunaan tanah. Laju konversi hutan sangat mengkhawatirkan. Pertumbuhan area terbangun terus meningkat. Pola pengembangan area terbangun hanya berkonsentrasi pada pusat kegiatan ekonomi yang sudah ada dan juga pada jalur transportasi. Sementara itu pendorong perubahan penggunaan tanah bervariasi. Faktor ekonomi seperti PDRB Kabupaten Karimun dan Investasi sedangkan faktor sosial seperti urbanisasi dan penduduk yang bekerja di sektor primer mendorong perubahan penggunaan tanah di Kabupaten Karimun tahun 2008 – 2017.  Kata Kunci: penggunaan tanah, perubahan penggunaan tanah, faktor pendorong.

scholarly journals Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4175-4189
Author(s):  
Louise Chini ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
Ritvik Sahajpal ◽  
Steve Frolking ◽  
Kees Klein Goldewijk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Grazing Area ◽  
Global Carbon ◽  
Area Data

Abstract. Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-the-art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for simulations of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual wood harvest data updates from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for dataset years after 2015 and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of 1 or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use-change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil as far back as 1950. From 1951 to 2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100 000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77 000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates, including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

The Analysis Research of 20 Years’ LUCC in Dalian

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3994-3997
Author(s):  
Yu Yan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Transition Matrix ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Water Area ◽  
Land Use Type ◽  
Land Resources ◽  
Grass Land ◽  
Gis Tools ◽  
City Construction

Based on the support of GIS tools and land database, this paper put the LUCC theory into practice. The ArcGIS space analysis and transition matrix are used for the research of land use change of Dalian city through the 20 years’ period. Result shows that, from the year 1990 to the year 2010, enormous transformation has happened in land use type, of which the overall characteristics of transformation are reduction of wood land and grass land, with the increasing of construction land and water area. The trend of city construction area’s enlarging and agricultural land resources’ reducing is very obvious.

Divergent response of heavy metal bioavailability in soil rhizosphere to agricultural land use change from paddy field to various drylands

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujuan Gao ◽  
Jianli Jia ◽  
Beidou Xi ◽  
Dongyu Cui ◽  
Wenbing Tan
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Metals ◽  
Heavy Metal ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Rhizosphere Soil ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Metal Bioavailability ◽  
Soil Rhizosphere ◽  
Divergent Response

The heavy metal pollution induced by agricultural land use change has attracted great attention. In this study, the divergent response of bioavailability of heavy metals in rhizosphere soil to different...

scholarly journals Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3473
Author(s):  
Yong Lai ◽  
Guangqing Huang ◽  
Shengzhong Chen ◽  
Shaotao Lin ◽  
Wenjun Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Buffer Zones ◽  
Conflict Zones ◽  
Land Use Dynamics

Anthropogenic land-use change is one of the main drivers of global environmental change. China has been on a fast track of land-use change since the Reform and Opening-up policy in 1978. In view of the situation, this study aims to optimize land use and provide a way to effectively coordinate the development and ecological protection in China. We took East Guangdong (EGD), an underdeveloped but populous region, as a case study. We used land-use changes indexes to demonstrate the land-use dynamics in EGD from 2000 to 2020, then identified the hot spots for fast-growing areas of built-up land and simulated land use in 2030 using the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model. The results indicated that the cropland and the built-up land changed in a large proportion during the study period. Then we established the ecological security pattern (ESP) according to the minimal cumulative resistance model (MCRM) based on the natural and socioeconomic factors. Corridors, buffer zones, and the key nodes were extracted by the MCRM to maintain landscape connectivity and key ecological processes of the study area. Moreover, the study showed the way to identify the conflict zones between future built-up land expansion with the corridors and buffer zones, which will be critical areas of consideration for future land-use management. Finally, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on the research result.

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