scholarly journals Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhijeet Mishra ◽  
Florian Humpenöder ◽  
Jan Philipp Dietrich ◽  
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky ◽  
Brent Sohngen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Timber Production ◽  
Land Resources ◽  
Natural Forests ◽  
Land System ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
Land Use Models ◽  
Timber Plantations ◽  
Increasing Demand

Abstract. Out of 1150 Mha of forests designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations account for 11 % (131 Mha) of area and fulfilled more than 33 % of the global industrial roundwood demand. Yet, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand increases competition for scarce land resources between different land-uses for food, feed, livestock and timber production. Despite their significance in roundwood production, the importance of timber plantations in meeting the long-term timber demand and the implications of plantation expansion for overall land-use dynamics have not been studied in detail so far, in particular not the competition for land between agriculture and forestry in existing land-use models. This paper describes the extension of the modular, open-source land-system Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) by a detailed representation of forest land, timber production and timber demand dynamics. These extensions allow for understanding the land-use dynamics (including competition for land) and associated land-use change emissions of timber production. We show that the spatial cropland patterns differ when timber production is accounted for, indicating that timber plantations compete with cropland for the same scarce land resources. When plantations are established on cropland, it causes cropland expansion and deforestation elsewhere. As a result of increasing timber demand, we show an increase in plantations area by 140 % until the end of the century (+132 Mha in 1995–2100). We also observe in our model results that the increasing demand for timber increases scarcity of land, and causes intensification through yield increasing technological change by 117 % in croplands by 2100 relative to 1995. Through the inclusion of new forest plantation and natural forest dynamics, our estimates of land-related CO2 emissions match better with observed data in particular the gross land-use change emissions and carbon uptake (via regrowth), reflecting higher deforestation for expansion of managed land and timber production, and higher regrowth in natural forests as well as plantations.

scholarly journals Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.5

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 6467-6494
Author(s):  
Abhijeet Mishra ◽  
Florian Humpenöder ◽  
Jan Philipp Dietrich ◽  
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky ◽  
Brent Sohngen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Timber Production ◽  
Land Resources ◽  
Natural Forests ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Land System ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
Timber Plantations

Abstract. Out of 1150 Mha (million hectares) of forest designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations accounted for 11 % (131 Mha) of this area and fulfilled more than 33 % of the global industrial roundwood demand. However, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand intensifies competition for scarce land resources between different land uses such as food, feed, livestock and timber production. Despite the significance of plantations with respect to roundwood production, their importance in meeting the long-term timber demand and the implications of plantation expansion for overall land-use dynamics have not been studied in detail, in particular regarding the competition for land between agriculture and forestry in existing land-use models. This paper describes the extension of the modular, open-source land system Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) using a detailed representation of forest land, timber production and timber demand dynamics. These extensions allow for a better understanding of the land-use dynamics (including competition for land) and the associated land-use change emissions of timber production. We show that the spatial cropland patterns differ when timber production is accounted for, indicating that timber plantations compete with cropland for the same scarce land resources. When plantations are established on cropland, it causes cropland expansion and deforestation elsewhere. Using the exogenous extrapolation of historical roundwood production from plantations, future timber demand and plantation rotation lengths, we model the future spatial expansion of forest plantations. As a result of increasing timber demand, we show a 177 % increase in plantation area by the end of the century (+171 Mha in 1995–2100). We also observe (in our model results) that the increasing demand for timber amplifies the scarcity of land, which is indicated by shifting agricultural land-use patterns and increasing yields from cropland compared with a case without forestry. Through the inclusion of new forest plantation and natural forest dynamics, our estimates of land-related CO2 emissions better match with observed data, in particular the gross land-use change emissions and carbon uptake (via regrowth), reflecting higher deforestation with the expansion of managed land and timber production as well as higher regrowth in natural forests and plantations.

scholarly journals Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3473
Author(s):  
Yong Lai ◽  
Guangqing Huang ◽  
Shengzhong Chen ◽  
Shaotao Lin ◽  
Wenjun Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Buffer Zones ◽  
Conflict Zones ◽  
Land Use Dynamics

Anthropogenic land-use change is one of the main drivers of global environmental change. China has been on a fast track of land-use change since the Reform and Opening-up policy in 1978. In view of the situation, this study aims to optimize land use and provide a way to effectively coordinate the development and ecological protection in China. We took East Guangdong (EGD), an underdeveloped but populous region, as a case study. We used land-use changes indexes to demonstrate the land-use dynamics in EGD from 2000 to 2020, then identified the hot spots for fast-growing areas of built-up land and simulated land use in 2030 using the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model. The results indicated that the cropland and the built-up land changed in a large proportion during the study period. Then we established the ecological security pattern (ESP) according to the minimal cumulative resistance model (MCRM) based on the natural and socioeconomic factors. Corridors, buffer zones, and the key nodes were extracted by the MCRM to maintain landscape connectivity and key ecological processes of the study area. Moreover, the study showed the way to identify the conflict zones between future built-up land expansion with the corridors and buffer zones, which will be critical areas of consideration for future land-use management. Finally, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on the research result.

scholarly journals Current and Future Land Use Characters of a National Central City in Eco-Fragile Region—A Case Study in Xi’an City Based on FLUS Model

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 286
Author(s):  
Dingrao Feng ◽  
Wenkai Bao ◽  
Meichen Fu ◽  
Min Zhang ◽  
Yiyu Sun
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Pattern Change ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Xi’An City

Land use change plays a key role in terrestrial systems and drives the process of ecological pattern change. It is important to investigate the process of land use change, predict land use patterns, and reveal the characteristics of land use dynamics. In this study, we adopted the Markov model and future land use (FLUS) model to predict the future land use conditions in Xi’an city. Furthermore, we investigated the characteristics of land use change from a novel perspective, i.e., via establishment of a complex network model. This model captured the characteristics of the land use system during different periods. The results indicated that urban expansion and cropland loss played an important role in land use pattern change. The future gravity center of urban development moved along the opposite direction to that from 2000 to 2015 in Xi’an city. Although the rate of urban expansion declined in the future, urban expansion remained the primary driver of land use change. The primary urban development directions were east-southeast (ENE), north-northeast (NNE) and west-southwest (WSW) from 1990 to 2000, 2000 to 2015, and 2015 to 2030, respectively. In fact, cropland played a vital role in land use dynamics regarding all land use types, and the stability of the land use system decreased in the future. Our study provides future land use patterns and a novel perspective to better understand land use change.

scholarly journals How model paradigms affect our representation of future land-use change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calum Brown ◽  
Ian Holman ◽  
Mark Rounsevell
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
System Development ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Land Use Models ◽  
Landscape Scales

Abstract. Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European land use models that are based on the same integrated modelling framework and utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios, but which adopt fundamentally different model paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatial and aggregate land use change and ecosystem service supply. We find that the agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of active management in large, contiguous parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions, and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios where economic and other scenario conditions prevent the normal functioning of price signals and responses. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel, transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change.

Theory, Data, and Methods

2019 ◽  
pp. 156-202
Author(s):  
Eda Ustaoglu ◽  
Arif Çagdaş Aydinoglu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Information System ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
Scale Characteristics

Land-use change models are tools to support analyses, assessments, and policy decisions concerning the causes and consequences of land-use dynamics, by providing a framework for the analysis of land-use change processes and making projections for the future land-use/cover patterns. There is a variety of modelling approaches that were developed from different disciplinary backgrounds. Following the reviews in the literature, this chapter focuses on various modelling tools and practices that range from pattern-based methods such as machine learning and GIS (Geographic Information System)-based approaches, to process-based methods such as structural economic or agent-based models. For each of these methods, an overview is given for the advances that have been progressed by geographers, natural and economy scientists in developing these models of spatial land-use change. It is noted that further progress is needed in terms of model development, and integration of models operating at various scales that better address the multi-scale characteristics of the land-use system.

scholarly journals Effects of land use change from natural forest to plantation on C, N and natural abundance of 13C and 15N along a climate gradient in eastern China

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mbezele Junior Yannick Ngaba ◽  
Ya-Lin Hu ◽  
Roland Bol ◽  
Xiang-Qing Ma ◽  
Shao-Fei Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Forest Floor ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Mineral Soil ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Natural Forests ◽  
Soil C ◽  
Mineral Soils

Abstract Soil C and N turnover rates and contents are strongly influenced by climates (e.g., mean annual temperature MAT, and mean annual precipitation MAP) as well as human activities. However, the effects of converting natural forests to intensively human-managed plantations on soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N) dynamics across various climatic zones are not well known. In this study, we evaluated C, N pool and natural abundances of δ13C and δ15N in forest floor layer and 1-meter depth mineral soils under natural forests (NF) and plantation forest (PF) at six sites in eastern China. Our results showed that forest floor had higher C contents and lower N contents in PF compared to NF, resulting in high forest floor C/N ratios and a decrease in the quality of organic materials in forest floor under plantations. In general, soil C, N contents and their isotope changed significantly in the forest floor and mineral soil after land use change (LUC). Soil δ13C was significantly enriched in forest floor after LUC while both δ13C and δ15N values were enriched in mineral soils. Linear and non-linear regressions were observed for MAP and MAT in soil C/N ratios and soil δ13C, in their changes with NF conversion to PF while soil δ15N values were positively correlated with MAT. Our findings implied that LUC alters soil C turnover and contents and MAP drive soil δ13C dynamic.

A Land System Science meta-analysis suggests we underestimate intensive land uses in land use change dynamics

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.J. Sonter ◽  
D.J. Barrett ◽  
C.J. Moran ◽  
B.S. Soares-Filho
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
System Science ◽  
Change Dynamics ◽  
Land System

Land base models for forest resource supply analysis: a critical review

1988 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 965-973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. Parks ◽  
Ralph J. Alig
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Vegetation Dynamics ◽  
Forest Vegetation ◽  
Forest Resource ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
Land Use Models ◽  
Supply Analysis ◽  
Regional Forest ◽  
Dynamics Models

Land base models in regional forest resource supply analyses project area changes in forest vegetation and land use. Models of forest vegetation dynamics are classified according to the basic modeling unit (canopy gap and forest); land use dynamics models are classified according to technique (inventory–descriptive, normative, and positive). Relationships among models used in analyzing timber supply are reviewed, including necessary links between models of forest vegetation dynamics and land use dynamics.

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