scholarly journals FORHYCS v1.0: A spatially distributed model combining hydrology and forest dynamics

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias J. R. Speich ◽  
Massimiliano Zappa ◽  
Marc Scherstjanoi ◽  
Heike Lischke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Structure ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Canopy Structure ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Landscape Model ◽  
Forest Landscape Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We present FORHYCS (FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland), a distributed ecohydrological model to assess the impact of climate change on water resources and forest dynamics. FORHYCS is based on the coupling of the hydrological model PREVAH and the forest landscape model TreeMig. In a coupled simulation, both original models are executed simultaneously and exchange information through shared variables. The simulated canopy structure is summarized by the leaf area index (LAI), which affects local water balance calculations. On the other hand, an annual drought index is obtained from daily simulated potential and actual transpiration. This drought index affects tree growth and mortality, as well as a species-specific tree height limitation. The effective rooting depth is simulated as a function of climate, soil and simulated above-ground vegetation structure. Other interface variables include stomatal resistance and leaf phenology. Case study simulations with the model were performed in the Navizence catchment in the Central Swiss Alps, with a sharp elevational gradient and climatic conditions ranging from dry inneralpine to high alpine. In a first experiment, the model was run for 500 years with different configurations. The results were compared against observations of vegetation properties from national forest inventories, remotely sensed LAI and high-resolution canopy height maps from stereo aerial images. Two new metrics are proposed for a quantitative comparison of observed and simulated canopy structure. In a second experiment, the model was run for 130 years under idealized climate change scenarios: daily temperature was increased by up to 6 K, and precipitation altered by 10 %, with a gradual change over 35 years. The first experiment showed that model configuration greatly influences simulated vegetation structure. In particular, simulations where height limitation was dependent on environmental stress showed a much better fit to canopy height observations. Spatial patterns of simulated LAI were more realistic than for uncoupled simulations of the forest landscape model, although some model deficiencies are still evident. Under idealized climate change scenarios, the effect of the coupling varied regionally, with the greatest effects on simulated streamflow (up to 40 mm y−1 difference with respect to a simulation with static vegetation parameters) seen at the valley bottom and in regions currently above the treeline. This case study shows the importance of coupling hydrology and vegetation dynamics to simulate the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Nevertheless, it also highlights some challenges of ecohydrological modelling, such as the need to realistically simulate plant response to increased CO2 concentrations, and process uncertainty regarding future land cover changes.

scholarly journals FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland v1.0: a spatially distributed model combining hydrology and forest dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 537-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias J. R. Speich ◽  
Massimiliano Zappa ◽  
Marc Scherstjanoi ◽  
Heike Lischke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Structure ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Canopy Structure ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Landscape Model ◽  
Forest Landscape Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We present FORHYCS (FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland), a distributed ecohydrological model to assess the impact of climate change on water resources and forest dynamics. FORHYCS is based on the coupling of the hydrological model PREVAH and the forest landscape model TreeMig. In a coupled simulation, both original models are executed simultaneously and exchange information through shared variables. The simulated canopy structure is summarized by the leaf area index (LAI), which affects local water balance calculations. On the other hand, an annual drought index is obtained from daily simulated potential and actual transpiration. This drought index affects tree growth and mortality, as well as a species-specific tree height limitation. The effective rooting depth is simulated as a function of climate, soil, and simulated above-ground vegetation structure. Other interface variables include stomatal resistance and leaf phenology. Case study simulations with the model were performed in the Navizence catchment in the Swiss Central Alps, with a sharp elevational gradient and climatic conditions ranging from dry inner-alpine to high alpine. In a first experiment, the model was run for 500 years with different configurations. The results were compared against observations of vegetation properties from national forest inventories, remotely sensed LAI, and high-resolution canopy height maps from stereo aerial images. Two new metrics are proposed for a quantitative comparison of observed and simulated canopy structure. In a second experiment, the model was run for 130 years under climate change scenarios using both idealized temperature and precipitation change and meteorological forcing from downscaled GCM-RCM model chains. The first experiment showed that model configuration greatly influences simulated vegetation structure. In particular, simulations where height limitation was dependent on environmental stress showed a much better fit to canopy height observations. Spatial patterns of simulated LAI were more realistic than for uncoupled simulations of the forest landscape model, although some model deficiencies are still evident. Under idealized climate change scenarios, the effect of the coupling varied regionally, with the greatest effects on simulated streamflow (up to 60 mm yr−1 difference with respect to a simulation with static vegetation parameters) seen at the valley bottom and in regions currently above the treeline. This case study shows the importance of coupling hydrology and vegetation dynamics to simulate the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Nevertheless, it also highlights some challenges of ecohydrological modeling, such as the need to realistically simulate the plant response to increased CO2 concentrations and process uncertainty regarding future land cover changes.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽  
David Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
Rosa María Mateos ◽  
Pablo Ezquerro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Fine Grained Material ◽  
The Impact

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

scholarly journals Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric J. Gustafson ◽  
Brian R. Miranda ◽  
Anatoly Z. Shvidenko ◽  
Brian R. Sturtevant
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Landscape Model ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Forest Landscape Model ◽  
Waterlogged Soils

Changes in CO2 concentration and climate are likely to alter disturbance regimes and competitive outcomes among tree species, which ultimately can result in shifts of species and biome boundaries. Such changes are already evident in high latitude forests, where waterlogged soils produced by topography, surficial geology, and permafrost are an important driver of forest dynamics. Predicting such effects under the novel conditions of the future requires models with direct and mechanistic links of abiotic drivers to growth and competition. We enhanced such a forest landscape model (PnET-Succession in LANDIS-II) to allow simulation of waterlogged soils and their effects on tree growth and competition. We formally tested how these modifications alter water balance on wetland and permafrost sites, and their effect on tree growth and competition. We applied the model to evaluate its promise for mechanistically simulating species range expansion and contraction under climate change across a latitudinal gradient in Siberian Russia. We found that higher emissions scenarios permitted range expansions that were quicker and allowed a greater diversity of invading species, especially at the highest latitudes, and that disturbance hastened range shifts by overcoming the natural inertia of established ecological communities. The primary driver of range advances to the north was altered hydrology related to thawing permafrost, followed by temperature effects on growth. Range contractions from the south (extirpations) were slower and less tied to emissions or latitude, and were driven by inability to compete with invaders, or disturbance. An important non-intuitive result was that some extant species were killed off by extreme cold events projected under climate change as greater weather extremes occurred over the next 30 years, and this had important effects on subsequent successional trajectories. The mechanistic linkages between climate and soil water dynamics in this forest landscape model produced tight links between climate inputs, physiology of vegetation, and soils at a monthly time step. The updated modeling system can produce high quality projections of climate impacts on forest species range shifts by accounting for the interacting effects of CO2 concentration, climate (including longer growing seasons), seed dispersal, disturbance, and soil hydrologic properties.

scholarly journals Environmental flow assessment in the context of climate change: a case study in Southern Quebec (Canada)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laureline Berthot ◽  
André St-Hilaire ◽  
Daniel Caissie ◽  
Nassir El-Jabi ◽  
Judith Kirby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Physical Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Water Abstraction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Through a case study in Southern Quebec (Canada), the assessment of environmental flows in light of the effects of climate change is investigated. Currently, the 7Q2 flow metric (7-day average flow with a 2-year return period) is used for water abstraction management. Several flow metrics were calculated using flow time series simulated by a deterministic hydrological model (HYDROTEL) and climate change scenarios as inputs. Results were compared within homogeneous low flow regions defined using ascendant hierarchical clustering, for the 1990, 2020 and 2050 horizons and annual, summer and winter periods. The impact of each flow metric on the potential availability of physical habitat was analyzed using the wetted perimeter as a proxy. Results indicated that: (1) the increasing non-stationarity of simulated flow data sets over time will complicate the use of frequency analysis to calculate the 7Q2 flow metric; (2) summer low flow values are expected to be lower than winter low flows; and (3) flow-duration curve metrics like the LQ50 (median discharge value of the month with the lowest flow) may become relevant environmental flow metrics by 2050. Results question current water abstraction management tools and permit to anticipate future local and regional issues during low flow periods.

scholarly journals Adapting River Bridge Infrastructures To Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akinola Ifelola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Velocity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Average Wind Speed ◽  
Southern Ontario ◽  
Ottawa River ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Wind ◽  
The Impact

Climate change forecasts project up to 20% increase in precipitation for southern Ontario based on several climate change scenarios and models and an unpredictable change an average wind speed that may range from 5% reduction to 15% increase by the year 2100 compared to 1971 to 2000 reference period. Average annual air temperatures are predicted to increase between 2.5 and 3.7°C by 2050 from baseline average between 1961 and 1990. This research studied the impact of climate change on bridge infrastructure using the Portage bridge on the Ottawa river in southern Ontario as a case study. Result shows that increase in precipitation due to climate change will cause 0.3m/s increase in stream velocity and about 0.85m increase in water level for a 100-year storm. This increase will result in scour depths at bridge piers to increase by 0.86 m while bending moments on piers increased by 21 kNm. Shear forces also increased by 43 kN.

scholarly journals The Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Meteorological Draught Susceptability on Sampean Watershed

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 146
Author(s):  
Masita Ratih ◽  
Gusfan Halik ◽  
Retno Utami Agung Wiyono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Impact

Drought disasters that occur in the Sampean watershed from time to time have increased, both the intensity of events and the area affected by drought. The general objective of this research is to develop an assessment method for the impact of climate chan ge on vulnerability to drought disasters based on atmospheric circulation data. The specific objectives of this study are to model rainfall predictions based on atmospheric circulation data, predict rainfall in various climate change scenarios (Intergovernm ental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC – AR5), and assess vulnerability to drought disasters using a meteorological approach. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is one way to analyze the drought index in an area which was developed previous researcher. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is designed to quantitatively determine the rainfall deficit with various time scales. The advantage of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is that it is enough to use monthly rainfall data to compare drou ght levels between regions even with different climate types. To facilitate the presentation of the data base on the identification of d rought susceptibility, we need a system that can assist in building, storing, managing and displaying geographically ref erenced information in the form of spatial mapping. This research facilitates monitoring of the area of drought-prone areas, predicts drought levels, prevents future drought disasters, and prepares plans for rebuilding drought-prone areas in the Sampean watershed.

scholarly journals A Step-by-Step Guide to Initialize and Calibrate Landscape Models: A Case Study in the Mediterranean Mountains

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Suárez-Muñoz ◽  
Marco Mina ◽  
Pablo C. Salazar ◽  
Rafael M. Navarro-Cerrillo ◽  
José L. Quero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Single Cell ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Landscape Model ◽  
Competitive Effects ◽  
Landscape Models ◽  
Mediterranean Mountains ◽  
Forest Landscape Model ◽  
Landscape Level

The use of spatially interactive forest landscape models has increased in recent years. These models are valuable tools to assess our knowledge about the functioning and provisioning of ecosystems as well as essential allies when predicting future changes. However, developing the necessary inputs and preparing them for research studies require substantial initial investments in terms of time. Although model initialization and calibration often take the largest amount of modelers’ efforts, such processes are rarely reported thoroughly in application studies. Our study documents the process of calibrating and setting up an ecophysiologically based forest landscape model (LANDIS-II with PnET-Succession) in a biogeographical region where such a model has never been applied to date (southwestern Mediterranean mountains in Europe). We describe the methodological process necessary to produce the required spatial inputs expressing initial vegetation and site conditions. We test model behaviour on single-cell simulations and calibrate species parameters using local biomass estimations and literature information. Finally, we test how different initialization data—with and without shrub communities—influence the simulation of forest dynamics by applying the calibrated model at landscape level. Combination of plot-level data with vegetation maps allowed us to generate a detailed map of initial tree and shrub communities. Single-cell simulations revealed that the model was able to reproduce realistic biomass estimates and competitive effects for different forest types included in the landscape, as well as plausible monthly growth patterns of species growing in Mediterranean mountains. Our results highlight the importance of considering shrub communities in forest landscape models, as they influence the temporal dynamics of tree species. Besides, our results show that, in the absence of natural disturbances, harvesting or climate change, landscape-level simulations projected a general increase of biomass of several species over the next decades but with distinct spatio-temporal patterns due to competitive effects and landscape heterogeneity. Providing a step-by-step workflow to initialize and calibrate a forest landscape model, our study encourages new users to use such tools in forestry and climate change applications. Thus, we advocate for documenting initialization processes in a transparent and reproducible manner in forest landscape modelling.

scholarly journals Interactions among spruce beetle disturbance, climate change and forest dynamics captured by a forest landscape model

Ecosphere ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. art231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Temperli ◽  
Thomas T. Veblen ◽  
Sarah J. Hart ◽  
Dominik Kulakowski ◽  
Alan J. Tepley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Dynamics ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Landscape Model ◽  
Spruce Beetle ◽  
Forest Landscape Model

Nature-Based solutions for geo-hydrological risk reduction: the Portofino Park (Italy) experience in the H2020 RECONECT project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Faccini ◽  
Andrea Benedettini ◽  
Valentina Brodasca ◽  
Umberto Bruschini ◽  
Riccardo Giammarini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Solid Transport ◽  
The Impact

<p>The Horizon 2020 RECONECT - Regenerating ECOsystems with Nature-Based Solutions for hydro-meteorological risk rEduCTion - Project aims to contribute to a European reference framework on NBS by demonstrating, upscaling and spreading large-scale NBSs in natural areas.</p><p>The Italian RECONECT demonstrator is set in the Portofino Park, which represents a unique natural and cultural landscape but is severely endangered by geo-hydrological hazards.</p><p>The most frequent processes are shallow landslides and flash floods, sea-storm surges, rockfalls and mud-debris flows. Often, several different processes can occur simultaneously during an intense meteorological event, causing a location specific multi-hazard effect.</p><p>This research introduces the NBSs interventions designed within the RECONECT Italian case study in two pilot catchments (San Fruttuoso and Paraggi basins), accessed by thousands of tourists throughout the year.</p><p>Amongst all possible interventions that can be implemented in the protected area, NBSs are considered to be most suitable due to their minimal impact and the possibilities for integration within the natural environment. The Portofino Park has already been promoting interventions aimed at reducing the impact of geo-hazards within the protected area in response to climate change. As part of the RECONECT project, and in order to achieve sound engineering and technological solutions which can also preserve unique landscapes of natural and cultural heritage, the Park authority is realizing a set of NBSs in San Fruttuoso and Paraggi catchments. The purpose of the design is to demonstrate how NBSs can be integrated into such areas and how to reduce geo-hydrological risk for given climate change scenarios within the framework of an ecosystem based holistic approach for risk reduction.</p><p>The main scope of NBSs in San Fruttuoso is to address following basic challenges: stabilizing of rock masses; reduction of geo-hydrologic risks in order to intercept and reduce suspended and solid transport along the streams as well as reducing erosion; forest management focused to improve biodiversity, to remove non-native species and dangerous old specimen (Pine trees), not suitable in a Mediterranean climate, in order to select the climax species (i.e. Quercus ilex); restoration of dry-stone walls with the aim to valorize the terraced landscape as well as stabilizing the slopes.</p><p>The reconstruction of terraces and the regeneration of natural and man-made ecosystems will also be implemented within the Paraggi basin. In addition, hydraulic-forestry arrangements on water courses will be undertaken to improve the outflow and decrease solid transport and floating debris. Furthermore, other measures such as riverbed and tributary implementations, maintenance along hiking paths, slope stabilization, and cleaning and removing dead vegetation and dirt will also be undertaken.</p><p>The project also includes hydro-meteorological monitoring activities in the selected basins and the periodic checking of NBSs performance indicators. Lastly, remote sensing surveys are used to quantitatively assess the ongoing gemorphogical processes.</p><p>In relation to future projections of natural and socio-economic impacts of climate change, NBS represent a relevant mitigation and adaptation strategy for the Portofino case study, which may be upscaled to national and international level.</p>

scholarly journals A Case Study of the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Loan Credit Risk

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 3058
Author(s):  
Jagdeep Kaur Brar ◽  
Antoine Kornprobst ◽  
Willard John Braun ◽  
Matthew Davison ◽  
Warren Hare
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Increased Temperature ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Changing weather patterns may impose increased risk to the creditworthiness of financial institutions in the agriculture sector. To reduce the credit risk caused by climate change, financial institutions need to update their agricultural lending portfolios to consider climate change scenarios. In this paper we introduce a framework to compute the optimal agricultural lending portfolio under different increased temperature scenarios. In this way we quantify the impact of increased temperature, taken as a measure of climate change, on credit risk. We provide a detailed case study of how our approach applies to the problem of optimizing a portfolio of agricultural loans made to corn farmers across different corn producing regions of Ontario, Canada, under various climate change scenarios. We conclude that the lending portfolio obtained by taking into account the climate change is less risky than the lending portfolio neglecting climate change.

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