scholarly journals A Case Study of the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Loan Credit Risk

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 3058
Author(s):  
Jagdeep Kaur Brar ◽  
Antoine Kornprobst ◽  
Willard John Braun ◽  
Matthew Davison ◽  
Warren Hare
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Increased Temperature ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Changing weather patterns may impose increased risk to the creditworthiness of financial institutions in the agriculture sector. To reduce the credit risk caused by climate change, financial institutions need to update their agricultural lending portfolios to consider climate change scenarios. In this paper we introduce a framework to compute the optimal agricultural lending portfolio under different increased temperature scenarios. In this way we quantify the impact of increased temperature, taken as a measure of climate change, on credit risk. We provide a detailed case study of how our approach applies to the problem of optimizing a portfolio of agricultural loans made to corn farmers across different corn producing regions of Ontario, Canada, under various climate change scenarios. We conclude that the lending portfolio obtained by taking into account the climate change is less risky than the lending portfolio neglecting climate change.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽  
David Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
Rosa María Mateos ◽  
Pablo Ezquerro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Fine Grained Material ◽  
The Impact

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

scholarly journals Achieving Residential Coastal Communities Resilient to Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pramodit Adhikari ◽  
Mohamed A. Abdelhafez ◽  
Yue Dong ◽  
Yanlin Guo ◽  
Hussam N. Mahmoud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
The United States ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Coastal cities in the Southeast and Gulf Coast of the United States are at an increased risk of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) due to the combined effects of urbanization, rapid economic development, and climate change. Current building codes and standards focus on minimum performance criteria for individual buildings exposed to severe hazard events to ensure occupant safety. However, they do not consider the resilience of buildings and building portfolios, which are key factors in determining whether a community can respond to and recover from a severe natural hazard event. Light-frame wood residential buildings dominate the residential market in the US, represent a significant percentage of the investment in the built environment, and are especially vulnerable to hurricane winds and storm surge in coastal areas. Our study of the impact of various hurricane and climate change scenarios on the performance of coastal residential communities reveals that decision-making at the community level is needed to develop rational engineering and urban planning policies, to mitigate the impact of hurricane wind and storm surge, and to adapt to climate change. The results suggest that fundamental changes in the current building regulatory process may be necessary.

scholarly journals FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland v1.0: a spatially distributed model combining hydrology and forest dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 537-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias J. R. Speich ◽  
Massimiliano Zappa ◽  
Marc Scherstjanoi ◽  
Heike Lischke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Structure ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Canopy Structure ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Landscape Model ◽  
Forest Landscape Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We present FORHYCS (FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland), a distributed ecohydrological model to assess the impact of climate change on water resources and forest dynamics. FORHYCS is based on the coupling of the hydrological model PREVAH and the forest landscape model TreeMig. In a coupled simulation, both original models are executed simultaneously and exchange information through shared variables. The simulated canopy structure is summarized by the leaf area index (LAI), which affects local water balance calculations. On the other hand, an annual drought index is obtained from daily simulated potential and actual transpiration. This drought index affects tree growth and mortality, as well as a species-specific tree height limitation. The effective rooting depth is simulated as a function of climate, soil, and simulated above-ground vegetation structure. Other interface variables include stomatal resistance and leaf phenology. Case study simulations with the model were performed in the Navizence catchment in the Swiss Central Alps, with a sharp elevational gradient and climatic conditions ranging from dry inner-alpine to high alpine. In a first experiment, the model was run for 500 years with different configurations. The results were compared against observations of vegetation properties from national forest inventories, remotely sensed LAI, and high-resolution canopy height maps from stereo aerial images. Two new metrics are proposed for a quantitative comparison of observed and simulated canopy structure. In a second experiment, the model was run for 130 years under climate change scenarios using both idealized temperature and precipitation change and meteorological forcing from downscaled GCM-RCM model chains. The first experiment showed that model configuration greatly influences simulated vegetation structure. In particular, simulations where height limitation was dependent on environmental stress showed a much better fit to canopy height observations. Spatial patterns of simulated LAI were more realistic than for uncoupled simulations of the forest landscape model, although some model deficiencies are still evident. Under idealized climate change scenarios, the effect of the coupling varied regionally, with the greatest effects on simulated streamflow (up to 60 mm yr−1 difference with respect to a simulation with static vegetation parameters) seen at the valley bottom and in regions currently above the treeline. This case study shows the importance of coupling hydrology and vegetation dynamics to simulate the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Nevertheless, it also highlights some challenges of ecohydrological modeling, such as the need to realistically simulate the plant response to increased CO2 concentrations and process uncertainty regarding future land cover changes.

scholarly journals FORHYCS v1.0: A spatially distributed model combining hydrology and forest dynamics

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias J. R. Speich ◽  
Massimiliano Zappa ◽  
Marc Scherstjanoi ◽  
Heike Lischke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Structure ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Canopy Structure ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Landscape Model ◽  
Forest Landscape Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We present FORHYCS (FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland), a distributed ecohydrological model to assess the impact of climate change on water resources and forest dynamics. FORHYCS is based on the coupling of the hydrological model PREVAH and the forest landscape model TreeMig. In a coupled simulation, both original models are executed simultaneously and exchange information through shared variables. The simulated canopy structure is summarized by the leaf area index (LAI), which affects local water balance calculations. On the other hand, an annual drought index is obtained from daily simulated potential and actual transpiration. This drought index affects tree growth and mortality, as well as a species-specific tree height limitation. The effective rooting depth is simulated as a function of climate, soil and simulated above-ground vegetation structure. Other interface variables include stomatal resistance and leaf phenology. Case study simulations with the model were performed in the Navizence catchment in the Central Swiss Alps, with a sharp elevational gradient and climatic conditions ranging from dry inneralpine to high alpine. In a first experiment, the model was run for 500 years with different configurations. The results were compared against observations of vegetation properties from national forest inventories, remotely sensed LAI and high-resolution canopy height maps from stereo aerial images. Two new metrics are proposed for a quantitative comparison of observed and simulated canopy structure. In a second experiment, the model was run for 130 years under idealized climate change scenarios: daily temperature was increased by up to 6 K, and precipitation altered by 10 %, with a gradual change over 35 years. The first experiment showed that model configuration greatly influences simulated vegetation structure. In particular, simulations where height limitation was dependent on environmental stress showed a much better fit to canopy height observations. Spatial patterns of simulated LAI were more realistic than for uncoupled simulations of the forest landscape model, although some model deficiencies are still evident. Under idealized climate change scenarios, the effect of the coupling varied regionally, with the greatest effects on simulated streamflow (up to 40 mm y−1 difference with respect to a simulation with static vegetation parameters) seen at the valley bottom and in regions currently above the treeline. This case study shows the importance of coupling hydrology and vegetation dynamics to simulate the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Nevertheless, it also highlights some challenges of ecohydrological modelling, such as the need to realistically simulate plant response to increased CO2 concentrations, and process uncertainty regarding future land cover changes.

scholarly journals Environmental flow assessment in the context of climate change: a case study in Southern Quebec (Canada)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laureline Berthot ◽  
André St-Hilaire ◽  
Daniel Caissie ◽  
Nassir El-Jabi ◽  
Judith Kirby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Physical Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Water Abstraction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Through a case study in Southern Quebec (Canada), the assessment of environmental flows in light of the effects of climate change is investigated. Currently, the 7Q2 flow metric (7-day average flow with a 2-year return period) is used for water abstraction management. Several flow metrics were calculated using flow time series simulated by a deterministic hydrological model (HYDROTEL) and climate change scenarios as inputs. Results were compared within homogeneous low flow regions defined using ascendant hierarchical clustering, for the 1990, 2020 and 2050 horizons and annual, summer and winter periods. The impact of each flow metric on the potential availability of physical habitat was analyzed using the wetted perimeter as a proxy. Results indicated that: (1) the increasing non-stationarity of simulated flow data sets over time will complicate the use of frequency analysis to calculate the 7Q2 flow metric; (2) summer low flow values are expected to be lower than winter low flows; and (3) flow-duration curve metrics like the LQ50 (median discharge value of the month with the lowest flow) may become relevant environmental flow metrics by 2050. Results question current water abstraction management tools and permit to anticipate future local and regional issues during low flow periods.

scholarly journals Adapting River Bridge Infrastructures To Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akinola Ifelola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Velocity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Average Wind Speed ◽  
Southern Ontario ◽  
Ottawa River ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Wind ◽  
The Impact

Climate change forecasts project up to 20% increase in precipitation for southern Ontario based on several climate change scenarios and models and an unpredictable change an average wind speed that may range from 5% reduction to 15% increase by the year 2100 compared to 1971 to 2000 reference period. Average annual air temperatures are predicted to increase between 2.5 and 3.7°C by 2050 from baseline average between 1961 and 1990. This research studied the impact of climate change on bridge infrastructure using the Portage bridge on the Ottawa river in southern Ontario as a case study. Result shows that increase in precipitation due to climate change will cause 0.3m/s increase in stream velocity and about 0.85m increase in water level for a 100-year storm. This increase will result in scour depths at bridge piers to increase by 0.86 m while bending moments on piers increased by 21 kNm. Shear forces also increased by 43 kN.

scholarly journals Impact of ambient temperature on mental health in Bern, Switzerland: a time-series study

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Bundo ◽  
E de Schrijver ◽  
A Federspiel ◽  
J Luterbacher ◽  
O H Franco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Mental Health ◽  
Mental Disorders ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ambient Temperatures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Neuropsychiatric Diseases ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Previous studies suggest that people with mental disorders are more vulnerable to increased ambient temperatures (AT). In Switzerland, neuropsychiatric diseases contribute up to 35.1% of the total burden of disease. This burden could possibly increase in the future under current climate change scenarios, if no appropriate public health measures were implemented. However, there is lack of evidence on the impact of AT on mental health in Switzerland. Objective This study aimed to investigate the short-term association between AT and mental health hospitalizations in Bern, Switzerland. Methods From 1973 to 2010, we collected individual data on daily hospitalizations for mental disorders (71,931) from the University Hospital of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy in Bern. We used population-weighted daily mean AT for the canton of Bern derived from the 2.2-km gridded weather data provided by MeteoSwiss. We applied conditional Poisson regression with distributed lag linear models to assess the association and to account for delayed effects up to 3 days after the exposure. We conducted stratified analysis and by age, sex and diagnosis. Results The overall risk of hospitalizations increased linearly by 3.0% (95% CI: 0.0%, 6.0%) for every 10C°C-increase in mean daily AT. No differences in risk estimates were found across sex (3.0% in males (95% CI: 0%, 7.0%) and 4.0% in females (95% CI: 0%, 8.0%)) and age groups (≥ 45 years old: 4.0% (95% CI: 0%, 9.0%) and <45 years old: 3.0% (95% CI 0%, 7%)). Larger association estimates were found for schizophrenia (10.0%; 95% CI 4%, 16%), while no association was found for substance abuse (0.0%; 95% CI -7.0%, 6.0%). Conclusions Our preliminary findings suggest that increasing AT are associated with an increased risk in hospitalizations due to mental disorders in Bern. Specific public health policies should be urgently implemented in order to protect this vulnerable population sub-group from the challenges of climate change. Key messages Increased ambient temperatures are associated with an increased risk in hospitalizations due to mental health disorders. Specific health policies should be implement to protect mental health patients from the challenges of climate change.

Nature-Based solutions for geo-hydrological risk reduction: the Portofino Park (Italy) experience in the H2020 RECONECT project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Faccini ◽  
Andrea Benedettini ◽  
Valentina Brodasca ◽  
Umberto Bruschini ◽  
Riccardo Giammarini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Solid Transport ◽  
The Impact

<p>The Horizon 2020 RECONECT - Regenerating ECOsystems with Nature-Based Solutions for hydro-meteorological risk rEduCTion - Project aims to contribute to a European reference framework on NBS by demonstrating, upscaling and spreading large-scale NBSs in natural areas.</p><p>The Italian RECONECT demonstrator is set in the Portofino Park, which represents a unique natural and cultural landscape but is severely endangered by geo-hydrological hazards.</p><p>The most frequent processes are shallow landslides and flash floods, sea-storm surges, rockfalls and mud-debris flows. Often, several different processes can occur simultaneously during an intense meteorological event, causing a location specific multi-hazard effect.</p><p>This research introduces the NBSs interventions designed within the RECONECT Italian case study in two pilot catchments (San Fruttuoso and Paraggi basins), accessed by thousands of tourists throughout the year.</p><p>Amongst all possible interventions that can be implemented in the protected area, NBSs are considered to be most suitable due to their minimal impact and the possibilities for integration within the natural environment. The Portofino Park has already been promoting interventions aimed at reducing the impact of geo-hazards within the protected area in response to climate change. As part of the RECONECT project, and in order to achieve sound engineering and technological solutions which can also preserve unique landscapes of natural and cultural heritage, the Park authority is realizing a set of NBSs in San Fruttuoso and Paraggi catchments. The purpose of the design is to demonstrate how NBSs can be integrated into such areas and how to reduce geo-hydrological risk for given climate change scenarios within the framework of an ecosystem based holistic approach for risk reduction.</p><p>The main scope of NBSs in San Fruttuoso is to address following basic challenges: stabilizing of rock masses; reduction of geo-hydrologic risks in order to intercept and reduce suspended and solid transport along the streams as well as reducing erosion; forest management focused to improve biodiversity, to remove non-native species and dangerous old specimen (Pine trees), not suitable in a Mediterranean climate, in order to select the climax species (i.e. Quercus ilex); restoration of dry-stone walls with the aim to valorize the terraced landscape as well as stabilizing the slopes.</p><p>The reconstruction of terraces and the regeneration of natural and man-made ecosystems will also be implemented within the Paraggi basin. In addition, hydraulic-forestry arrangements on water courses will be undertaken to improve the outflow and decrease solid transport and floating debris. Furthermore, other measures such as riverbed and tributary implementations, maintenance along hiking paths, slope stabilization, and cleaning and removing dead vegetation and dirt will also be undertaken.</p><p>The project also includes hydro-meteorological monitoring activities in the selected basins and the periodic checking of NBSs performance indicators. Lastly, remote sensing surveys are used to quantitatively assess the ongoing gemorphogical processes.</p><p>In relation to future projections of natural and socio-economic impacts of climate change, NBS represent a relevant mitigation and adaptation strategy for the Portofino case study, which may be upscaled to national and international level.</p>

Weather

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. Hakim ◽  
Jérôme Patoux
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Multiple Perspectives ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
The Impact

The second edition of this concise, affordable textbook is ideal for curious undergraduate majors and non-majors taking a first course in meteorology. The first two chapters introduce readers to the main concepts and tools used to analyze weather patterns. Chapters 3-8 provide a foundational understanding of the fundamental processes taking place in the atmosphere, and in Chapters 9-12 these physical concepts are applied to specific weather phenomena. Weather concepts are then used in Chapters 13-15 to explain weather forecasting, air pollution, and the impact of climate change on weather. Key concepts are illustrated through a running case study of a single mid-latitude cyclone, providing students with an opportunity to progressively develop their understanding of weather phenomena with a familiar example approached from multiple perspectives. This edition includes expanded and updated coverage of precipitation types and formation, satellite and radar technology, tornadoes, and more. It also features thought-provoking end-of-chapter review questions, new visual analysis exercises, an expanded test bank and nearly 100 new figures.

scholarly journals Adapting River Bridge Infrastructures To Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akinola Ifelola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Velocity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Average Wind Speed ◽  
Southern Ontario ◽  
Ottawa River ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Wind ◽  
The Impact

Climate change forecasts project up to 20% increase in precipitation for southern Ontario based on several climate change scenarios and models and an unpredictable change an average wind speed that may range from 5% reduction to 15% increase by the year 2100 compared to 1971 to 2000 reference period. Average annual air temperatures are predicted to increase between 2.5 and 3.7°C by 2050 from baseline average between 1961 and 1990. This research studied the impact of climate change on bridge infrastructure using the Portage bridge on the Ottawa river in southern Ontario as a case study. Result shows that increase in precipitation due to climate change will cause 0.3m/s increase in stream velocity and about 0.85m increase in water level for a 100-year storm. This increase will result in scour depths at bridge piers to increase by 0.86 m while bending moments on piers increased by 21 kNm. Shear forces also increased by 43 kN.

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