scholarly journals AtmoSwing: Analog Technique Model for Statistical Weather forecastING and downscalING

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Horton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Raspberry Pi ◽  
Statistical Relationship ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Climate Studies

Abstract. Analog methods (AMs) allow for the prediction of local meteorological variables of interest (predictand) such as the daily precipitation, on the basis of synoptic variables (predictors). They can rely on outputs of numerical weather prediction models in the context of operational forecasting or outputs of climate models in the context of climate impact studies. AMs require low computing capacity and have demonstrated a useful potential for application in several contexts. AtmoSwing is an open source software written in C++ that implements AMs in a flexible manner so that different variants can be handled dynamically. It comprises four tools: a Forecaster that performs operational forecasts, a Viewer for displaying the results, a Downscaler for climate studies, and an Optimizer for inferring the relationship between the predictand and predictors. The Forecaster handles every required processing internally, such as operational predictor downloading (when possible) and reading, grid interpolation, etc., without external scripts or file conversion. The processing of a forecast is extremely low-intensive in terms of computing infrastructure and can even run on a Raspberry Pi computer. It provides valuable results, as revealed by a three-year-long operational forecast in the Swiss Alps. The Viewer displays the forecasts in an interactive GIS environment. It contains several layers of syntheses and details in order to provide a quick overview of the potential critical events in the upcoming days, as well as the possibility for the user to delve into the details of the forecasted predictand and criteria distributions. The Downscaler allows the use of AMs in a climatic context, either for climate reconstruction or for climate change impact studies. When used for future climate studies, it is necessary to pay close attention to the selected predictors, so that they contain the climate change signal. The Optimizer implements different optimization techniques, such as a sequential approach, Monte–Carlo simulation, and a global optimization technique using genetic algorithms. The process of inferring a statistical relationship between predictors and predictand is quite intensive in terms of processing because it requires numerous assessments over decades. To this end, the Optimizer was highly optimized in terms of computing efficiency, is parallelized over multiple threads and scales well on a Linux cluster. This procedure is only required to infer the statistical relationship, which can then be used in forecasting or downscaling at a low computing cost.

scholarly journals AtmoSwing: Analog Technique Model for Statistical Weather forecastING and downscalING (v2.1.0)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2915-2940
Author(s):  
Pascal Horton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Raspberry Pi ◽  
Statistical Relationship ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Climate Studies

Abstract. Analog methods (AMs) use synoptic-scale predictors to search in the past for similar days to a target day in order to infer the predictand of interest, such as daily precipitation. They can rely on outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the context of operational forecasting or outputs of climate models in the context of climate impact studies. AMs require low computing capacity and have demonstrated useful potential for application in several contexts. AtmoSwing is open-source software written in C++ that implements AMs in a flexible way so that different variants can be handled dynamically. It comprises four tools: a Forecaster for use in operational forecasting, a Viewer to display the results, a Downscaler for climate studies, and an Optimizer to establish the relationship between predictands and predictors. The Forecaster handles every required processing internally, such as NWP output downloading (when possible) and reading as well as grid interpolation, without external scripts or file conversion. The processing of a forecast requires low computing efforts and can even run on a Raspberry Pi computer. It provides valuable results, as revealed by a 3-year-long operational forecast in the Swiss Alps. The Viewer displays the forecasts in an interactive GIS environment with several levels of synthesis and detail. This allows for the provision of a quick overview of the potential critical situations in the upcoming days, as well as the possibility for the user to delve into the details of the forecasted predictand and criteria distributions. The Downscaler allows for the use of AMs in a climatic context, either for climate reconstruction or for climate change impact studies. When used for future climate studies, it is necessary to pay close attention to the selected predictors so that they contain the climate change signal. The Optimizer implements different optimization techniques, such as a semiautomatic sequential approach, Monte Carlo simulations, and a global optimization technique, using genetic algorithms. Establishing a statistical relationship between predictors and predictands is computationally intensive because it requires numerous assessments over decades. To this end, the code was highly optimized for computing efficiency, is parallelized (using multiple threads), and scales well on a Linux cluster. This procedure is only required to establish the statistical relationship, which can then be used for forecasting or downscaling at a low computing cost.

scholarly journals Ethiopian Banknote Recognition Using Convolutional Neural Network and Its Prototype Development Using Embedded Platform

2022 ◽  
Vol 2022 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Dereje Tekilu Aseffa ◽  
Harish Kalla ◽  
Satyasis Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Magnetic Sensors ◽  
Batch Size ◽  
Raspberry Pi ◽  
Prototype Development ◽  
Embedded Platform ◽  
Artificial Intelligence Technology ◽  
Banknote Recognition

Money transactions can be performed by automated self-service machines like ATMs for money deposits and withdrawals, banknote counters and coin counters, automatic vending machines, and automatic smart card charging machines. There are four important functions such as banknote recognition, counterfeit banknote detection, serial number recognition, and fitness classification which are furnished with these devices. Therefore, we need a robust system that can recognize banknotes and classify them into denominations that can be used in these automated machines. However, the most widely available banknote detectors are hardware systems that use optical and magnetic sensors to detect and validate banknotes. These banknote detectors are usually designed for specific country banknotes. Reprogramming such a system to detect banknotes is very difficult. In addition, researchers have developed banknote recognition systems using deep learning artificial intelligence technology like CNN and R-CNN. However, in these systems, dataset used for training is relatively small, and the accuracy of banknote recognition is found smaller. The existing systems also do not include implementation and its development using embedded systems. In this research work, we collected various Ethiopian currencies with different ages and conditions and applied various optimization techniques for CNN architects to identify the fake notes. Experimental analysis has been demonstrated with different models of CNN such as InceptionV3, MobileNetV2, XceptionNet, and ResNet50. MobileNetV2 with RMSProp optimization technique with batch size 32 is found to be a robust and reliable Ethiopian banknote detector and achieved superior accuracy of 96.4% in comparison to other CNN models. Selected model MobileNetV2 with RMSProp optimization has been implemented through an embedded platform by utilizing Raspberry Pi 3 B+ and other peripherals. Further, real-time identification of fake notes in a Web-based user interface (UI) has also been proposed in the research.

scholarly journals Assessing NOAA-16 HIRS Radiance Accuracy Using Simultaneous Nadir Overpass Observations from AIRS

2007 ◽  
Vol 24 (9) ◽  
pp. 1546-1561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Likun Wang ◽  
Changyong Cao ◽  
Pubu Ciren
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
High Spectral Resolution ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ◽  
Intersatellite Calibration ◽  
Calibration Accuracy ◽  
Calibration Techniques ◽  
Accuracy Assessments ◽  
Climate Studies

Abstract The High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) has been carried on NOAA satellites for more than two decades, and the HIRS data have been widely used for geophysical retrievals, climate studies, and radiance assimilation for numerical weather prediction models. However, given the legacy of the filter-wheel radiometer originally designed in the 1970s, the HIRS measurement accuracy is neither well documented nor well understood, despite the importance of this information for data users, instrument manufacturers, and calibration scientists. The advent of hyperspectral sounders, such as the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and intersatellite calibration techniques makes it possible to independently assess the accuracy of the HIRS radiances. This study independently assesses the data quality and calibration accuracy of HIRS by comparing the radiances between HIRS on NOAA-16 and AIRS on Aqua with simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO) observations for the year 2004. The results suggest that the HIRS radiometric bias relative to the AIRS-convolved HIRS radiance is on the order of ∼0.5 K, except channel 16, which has a bias of 0.8 K. For all eight spectrally overlapped channels, the observations by HIRS are warmer than the corresponding AIRS-convolved HIRS channel. Other than channel 16, the biases are temperature dependent. The root causes of the bias can be traced to a combination of the HIRS blackbody emissivity, nonlinearity, and spectral uncertainties. This study further demonstrates the utility of high-spectral-resolution radiance measurements for high-accuracy assessments of broadband radiometer calibration with the SNO observations.

A new method of PWV retrieval over land with remote sensing data: a case of AMSR2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan Jiang ◽  
Yan Xu ◽  
Tianhe Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Brightness Temperatures ◽  
Climate Studies

<p>Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is an important parameter reflecting the amount of solid water in the atmosphere, which is widely utilized in the studies of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate change. The microwave radiance measurements made by the space-based remote sensing satellites give us the opportunity to make the climate studies on a global scale. So far, PWV retrieval over the ocean has a long data record and the technology is very mature, but in the case of PWV retrieval over land, it is more challenging to isolate the atmospheric signals from the varied surface signals. In this study, we will apply a new retrieval method over land based on the dual-polarized difference (vertical and horizontal) at 19 GHz and 23 GHz using the brightness temperatures from the Global Change Observation Mission-Water (GCOM-W)/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2). We found polarization difference in brightness temperatures has an exponential relation on the amount of PWV. The validation results of the PWV retrieval from the ground-based GNSS stations show that the proposed method has a mean accuracy of 3.9 mm. Thus, the proposed method can give a possibility to improve the accuracy of data assimilation in the NWP applications and is useful for the studies of global climate change with the long-term data records.</p>

Forecasting of Tornadoes and Downbursts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Djordje Romanic
Keyword(s):  
Chaos Theory ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Wind ◽  
Extreme Wind Speeds ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Tornadoes and downbursts cause extreme wind speeds that often present a threat to human safety, structures, and the environment. While the accuracy of weather forecasts has increased manifold over the past several decades, the current numerical weather prediction models are still not capable of explicitly resolving tornadoes and small-scale downbursts in their operational applications. This chapter describes some of the physical (e.g., tornadogenesis and downburst formation), mathematical (e.g., chaos theory), and computational (e.g., grid resolution) challenges that meteorologists currently face in tornado and downburst forecasting.

scholarly journals Solving the Real Power Limitations in the Dynamic Economic Dispatch of Large-Scale Thermal Power Units under the Effects of Valve-Point Loading and Ramp-Rate Limitations

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1274
Author(s):  
Loau Al-Bahrani ◽  
Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian ◽  
Ben Horan ◽  
Alex Stojcevski
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Thermal Power ◽  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Economic Dispatch ◽  
Pso Algorithm ◽  
Search Space ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Ramp Rate ◽  
Dynamic Economic Dispatch

Few non-traditional optimization techniques are applied to the dynamic economic dispatch (DED) of large-scale thermal power units (TPUs), e.g., 1000 TPUs, that consider the effects of valve-point loading with ramp-rate limitations. This is a complicated multiple mode problem. In this investigation, a novel optimization technique, namely, a multi-gradient particle swarm optimization (MG-PSO) algorithm with two stages for exploring and exploiting the search space area, is employed as an optimization tool. The M particles (explorers) in the first stage are used to explore new neighborhoods, whereas the M particles (exploiters) in the second stage are used to exploit the best neighborhood. The M particles’ negative gradient variation in both stages causes the equilibrium between the global and local search space capabilities. This algorithm’s authentication is demonstrated on five medium-scale to very large-scale power systems. The MG-PSO algorithm effectively reduces the difficulty of handling the large-scale DED problem, and simulation results confirm this algorithm’s suitability for such a complicated multi-objective problem at varying fitness performance measures and consistency. This algorithm is also applied to estimate the required generation in 24 h to meet load demand changes. This investigation provides useful technical references for economic dispatch operators to update their power system programs in order to achieve economic benefits.

scholarly journals HGPT2: An ERA5-Based Global Model to Estimate Relative Humidity

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2179
Author(s):  
Pedro Mateus ◽  
Virgílio B. Mendes ◽  
Sandra M. Plecha
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Precipitable Water Vapor ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite Systems ◽  
International Gnss Service ◽  
Weighted Mean Temperature

The neutral atmospheric delay is one of the major error sources in Space Geodesy techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and its modeling for high accuracy applications can be challenging. Improving the modeling of the atmospheric delays (hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic) also leads to a more accurate and precise precipitable water vapor estimation (PWV), mostly in real-time applications, where models play an important role, since numerical weather prediction models cannot be used for real-time processing or forecasting. This study developed an improved version of the Hourly Global Pressure and Temperature (HGPT) model, the HGPT2. It is based on 20 years of ERA5 reanalysis data at full spatial (0.25° × 0.25°) and temporal resolution (1-h). Apart from surface air temperature, surface pressure, zenith hydrostatic delay, and weighted mean temperature, the updated model also provides information regarding the relative humidity, zenith non-hydrostatic delay, and precipitable water vapor. The HGPT2 is based on the time-segmentation concept and uses the annual, semi-annual, and quarterly periodicities to calculate the relative humidity anywhere on the Earth’s surface. Data from 282 moisture sensors located close to GNSS stations during 1 year (2020) were used to assess the model coefficients. The HGPT2 meteorological parameters were used to process 35 GNSS sites belonging to the International GNSS Service (IGS) using the GAMIT/GLOBK software package. Results show a decreased root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias values relative to the most used zenith delay models, with a significant impact on the height component. The HGPT2 was developed to be applied in the most diverse areas that can significantly benefit from an ERA5 full-resolution model.

scholarly journals Optimal Allocation of Multiple Types of Distributed Generations in Radial Distribution Systems Using a Hybrid Technique

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6644
Author(s):  
Ali Selim ◽  
Salah Kamel ◽  
Amal A. Mohamed ◽  
Ehab E. Elattar
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Radial Distribution ◽  
Distribution Systems ◽  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Mathematical Formulation ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Sensitivity Factor ◽  
Hybrid Technique ◽  
Analytical Technique

In recent years, the integration of distributed generators (DGs) in radial distribution systems (RDS) has received considerable attention in power system research. The major purpose of DG integration is to decrease the power losses and improve the voltage profiles that directly lead to improving the overall efficiency of the power system. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid optimization technique based on analytical and metaheuristic algorithms for optimal DG allocation in RDS. In the proposed technique, the loss sensitivity factor (LSF) is utilized to reduce the search space of the DG locations, while the analytical technique is used to calculate initial DG sizes based on a mathematical formulation. Then, a metaheuristic sine cosine algorithm (SCA) is applied to identify the optimal DG allocation based on the LSF and analytical techniques instead of using random initialization. To prove the superiority and high performance of the proposed hybrid technique, two standard RDSs, IEEE 33-bus and 69-bus, are considered. Additionally, a comparison between the proposed techniques, standard SCA, and other existing optimization techniques is carried out. The main findings confirmed the enhancement in the convergence of the proposed technique compared with the standard SCA and the ability to allocate multiple DGs in RDS.

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