scholarly journals Development and evaluation of the Screening Trajectory Ozone Prediction System (STOPS, version 1.0)

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1383-1394 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. H. Czader ◽  
P. Percell ◽  
D. Byun ◽  
S. Kim ◽  
Y. Choi

Abstract. A hybrid Lagrangian–Eulerian based modeling tool has been developed using the Eulerian framework of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. It is a moving nest that utilizes saved original CMAQ simulation results to provide boundary conditions, initial conditions, as well as emissions and meteorological parameters necessary for a simulation. Given that these files are available, this tool can run independently of the CMAQ whole domain simulation, and it is designed to simulate source–receptor relationships upon changes in emissions. In this tool, the original CMAQ's horizontal domain is reduced to a small sub-domain that follows a trajectory defined by the mean mixed-layer wind. It has the same vertical structure and physical and chemical interactions as CMAQ except advection calculation. The advantage of this tool compared to other Lagrangian models is its capability of utilizing realistic boundary conditions that change with space and time as well as detailed chemistry treatment. The correctness of the algorithms and the overall performance was evaluated against CMAQ simulation results. Its performance depends on the atmospheric conditions occurring during the simulation period, with the comparisons being most similar to CMAQ results under uniform wind conditions. The mean bias for surface ozone mixing ratios varies between −0.03 and −0.78 ppbV and the slope is between 0.99 and 1.01 for different analyzed cases. For complicated meteorological conditions, such as wind circulation, the simulated mixing ratios deviate from CMAQ values as a result of the Lagrangian approach of using mean wind for its movement, but are still close, with the mean bias for ozone varying between 0.07 and −4.29 ppbV and the slope varying between 0.95 and 1.06 for different analyzed cases. For historical reasons, this hybrid Lagrangian–Eulerian based tool is named the Screening Trajectory Ozone Prediction System (STOPS), but its use is not limited to ozone prediction as, similarly to CMAQ, it can simulate concentrations of many species, including particulate matter and some toxic compounds, such as formaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene.

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 7619-7649
Author(s):  
B. H. Czader ◽  
P. Percell ◽  
D. Byun ◽  
Y. Choi

Abstract. A hybrid Lagrangian–Eulerian modeling tool has been developed using the Eulerian framework of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. It is a moving nest that utilizes saved original CMAQ simulation results to provide boundary conditions, initial conditions, as well as emissions and meteorological parameters necessary for a simulation. Given that these file are available, this tool can run independently from the CMAQ whole domain simulation and it is designed to simulate source – receptor relationship upon changes in emissions. In this tool, the original CMAQ's horizontal domain is reduced to a small sub-domain that follows a trajectory defined by the mean mixed-layer wind. It has the same vertical structure and physical and chemical interactions as CMAQ except advection calculation. The advantage of this tool compared to other Lagrangian models is its capability of utilizing realistic boundary conditions that change with space and time as well as detailed chemistry treatment. The correctness of the algorithms and the overall performance was evaluated against CMAQ simulation results. Its performance depends on the atmospheric conditions occurring during the simulation period with the comparisons being most similar to CMAQ results under uniform wind conditions. The mean bias varies between −0.03 and −0.78 and the slope is between 0.99 and 1.01 for different analyzed cases. For complicated meteorological condition, such as wind circulation, the simulated mixing ratios deviate from CMAQ values as a result of Lagrangian approach of using mean wind for its movement, but are still close, with the mean varying between 0.07 and −4.29 and slope varying between 0.95 and 1.063 for different analyzed cases. For historical reasons this hybrid Lagrangian – Eulerian tool is named the Screening Trajectory Ozone Prediction System (STOPS) but its use is not limited to ozone prediction as similarly to CMAQ it can simulate concentrations of many species, including particulate matter and some toxic compounds, such as formaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1055-1073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyunghwa Lee ◽  
Jinhyeok Yu ◽  
Sojin Lee ◽  
Mieun Park ◽  
Hun Hong ◽  
...  

Abstract. For the purpose of providing reliable and robust air quality predictions, an air quality prediction system was developed for the main air quality criteria species in South Korea (PM10, PM2.5, CO, O3 and SO2). The main caveat of the system is to prepare the initial conditions (ICs) of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations using observations from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) and ground-based monitoring networks in northeast Asia. The performance of the air quality prediction system was evaluated during the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) campaign period (1 May–12 June 2016). Data assimilation (DA) of optimal interpolation (OI) with Kalman filter was used in this study. One major advantage of the system is that it can predict not only particulate matter (PM) concentrations but also PM chemical composition including five main constituents: sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), organic aerosols (OAs) and elemental carbon (EC). In addition, it is also capable of predicting the concentrations of gaseous pollutants (CO, O3 and SO2). In this sense, this new air quality prediction system is comprehensive. The results with the ICs (DA RUN) were compared with those of the CMAQ simulations without ICs (BASE RUN). For almost all of the species, the application of ICs led to improved performance in terms of correlation, errors and biases over the entire campaign period. The DA RUN agreed reasonably well with the observations for PM10 (index of agreement IOA =0.60; mean bias MB =-13.54) and PM2.5 (IOA =0.71; MB =-2.43) as compared to the BASE RUN for PM10 (IOA =0.51; MB =-27.18) and PM2.5 (IOA =0.67; MB =-9.9). A significant improvement was also found with the DA RUN in terms of bias. For example, for CO, the MB of −0.27 (BASE RUN) was greatly enhanced to −0.036 (DA RUN). In the cases of O3 and SO2, the DA RUN also showed better performance than the BASE RUN. Further, several more practical issues frequently encountered in the air quality prediction system were also discussed. In order to attain more accurate ozone predictions, the DA of NO2 mixing ratios should be implemented with careful consideration of the measurement artifacts (i.e., inclusion of alkyl nitrates, HNO3 and peroxyacetyl nitrates – PANs – in the ground-observed NO2 mixing ratios). It was also discussed that, in order to ensure accurate nocturnal predictions of the concentrations of the ambient species, accurate predictions of the mixing layer heights (MLHs) should be achieved from the meteorological modeling. Several advantages of the current air quality prediction system, such as its non-static free-parameter scheme, dust episode prediction and possible multiple implementations of DA prior to actual predictions, were also discussed. These configurations are all possible because the current DA system is not computationally expensive. In the ongoing and future works, more advanced DA techniques such as the 3D variational (3DVAR) method and ensemble Kalman filter (EnK) are being tested and will be introduced to the Korean air quality prediction system (KAQPS).


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 3839-3864 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Hogrefe ◽  
Peng Liu ◽  
George Pouliot ◽  
Rohit Mathur ◽  
Shawn Roselle ◽  
...  

Abstract. This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry – Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.


2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 748-759 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Adame ◽  
E. Serrano ◽  
J. P. Bolívar ◽  
B. A. de la Morena

Abstract It is well established that surface ozone levels are greatly affected by orography, solar radiation intensity, meteorological conditions, and the levels of their precursors. In this work, the authors study the sea–land breeze circulation in its relation with the behavior of ozone in a coastal area, located in southwestern Europe, with high levels of solar radiation and an important industrial complex emitting air pollutants. Hourly mean data over a 7-yr period (1999–2005) have been used in the study. Two patterns of sea–land breeze have been identified after analyzing 2298 days of measurements: a “pure” breeze (179 cases) and another one, called a “nonpure” breeze (284 cases), which is the resulting flow of the former and northwesterlies synoptic forcing. Among other results, the highest levels of surface ozone were observed under pure sea–land breeze, with hourly values up to 100 μg m−3 in the mean daily evolution. In contrast, for a nonpure breeze, the 24-h average daily value was lower than the corresponding one under a pure breeze by a factor of 1.16 and could reach 1.60 in representative real cases. These findings give evidence that the formation and accumulation of ozone are favored by the conditions under a pure sea–land breeze: that is, perpendicular wind directions toward the coastline, effective recirculation of air masses, and formation of ozone residual layers above the sea. Because these atmospheric conditions occur in other coastal regions in the world, the conclusions of this study could be extended to them.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyunghwa Lee ◽  
Jinhyeok Yu ◽  
Sojin Lee ◽  
Mieun Park ◽  
Hun Hong ◽  
...  

Abstract. For the purpose of providing reliable and robust air quality predictions, an operational air quality prediction system was developed for the main air quality criteria species in South Korea (PM10, PM2.5, CO, O3, and SO2). The main caveat of the system is to prepare the initial conditions (ICs) of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations using observations from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) and ground-based monitoring networks in northeast Asia. The performance of the air quality prediction system was evaluated during the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) campaign period (1 May–12 June 2016). Data assimilation (DA) of optimal interpolation (OI) with Kalman filter was used in this study. One major advantage of the system is that it can predict not only particulate matter (PM) concentrations but also PM chemical composition including five main constituents: sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic aerosols (OAs), and elemental carbon (EC). In addition, it is also capable of predicting the concentrations of gaseous pollutants (CO, O3 and SO2). In this sense, this new operational air quality prediction system is comprehensive. The results with the ICs (DA RUN) were compared with those of the CMAQ simulations without ICs (BASE RUN). For almost all of the species, the application of ICs led to improved performance in terms of correlation, errors, and biases over the entire campaign period. The DA RUN agreed reasonably well with the observations for PM10 (IOA = 0.60; MB = −13.54) and PM2.5 (IOA = 0.71; MB = −2.43) as compared to the BASE RUN for PM10 (IOA = 0.51; MB = −27.18) and PM2.5 (IOA = 0.67; MB = −9.9). A significant improvement was also found with the DA RUN in terms of bias. For example, for CO, the MB of −0.27 (BASE RUN) was greatly enhanced to −0.036 (DA RUN). In the cases of O3 and SO2, the DA RUN also showed better performance than the BASE RUN. Further, several more practical issues frequently encountered in the operational air quality prediction system were also discussed. In order to attain more accurate ozone predictions, the DA of NO2 mixing ratios should be implemented with careful consideration of the measurement artifacts (i.e., inclusion of alkyl nitrates, HNO3, and PANs in the ground-observed NO2 mixing ratios). It was also discussed that, in order to ensure accurate nocturnal predictions of the concentrations of the ambient species, accurate predictions of the mixing layer heights (MLH) should be achieved from the meteorological modeling. Several advantages of the current air quality prediction system, such as its non-static free parameter scheme, dust episode prediction, and possible multiple implementations of DA prior to actual predictions, were also discussed. These configurations are all possible because the current DA system is not computationally expensive. In the ongoing and future works, more advanced DA techniques such as the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method and ensemble Kalman filter (EnK) are being tested and will be introduced to the Korean operational air quality forecasting system.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Hogrefe ◽  
Peng Liu ◽  
George Pouliot ◽  
Rohit Mathur ◽  
Shawn Roselle ◽  
...  

Abstract. This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental U.S. for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ Process Analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couple fluctuations in free tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry – Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), GEOS-Chem, and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the mid- and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8-hr average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS, GEOS-Chem, and H-CMAQ driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.


Author(s):  
Assaad AlSahlani ◽  
Ranjan Mukherjee

The problem of a vibrating string subjected to a sudden constraint at one boundary is investigated in this paper. The constraint is imposed by a sleeve that axially moves along the mean position of the string with a small distance. The constraint is applied instantaneously such that the geometry of the string outside the sleeve, immediately after application of the constraint, remains unchanged whereas the length of string covered by the sleeve remains at rest. The change in energy of the string after application and removal of the sleeve is investigated for different values of sleeve travel distance and time of application of the constraint. Analytical and numerical simulation results are first provided for the string vibrating in the first mode, and then for a more general case where the string has arbitrary initial conditions. The results show that the energy content can decrease or increase depending on the time of application of the constraint and sleeve travel distance. This provides the opportunity for active control of string vibration through direct physical interaction with a small portion of the string by using the sleeve as an actuator.


2010 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 55-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Santos-Muñoz ◽  
M. L. Martin ◽  
A. Morata ◽  
F. Valero ◽  
A. Pascual

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is the verification of a short-range ensemble prediction system (SREPS) built with five different model physical process parameterization schemes and two different initial conditions from global models, allowing to construct several versions of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale MM5 model for a 1-month period of October 2006. From the SREPS, flow-dependent probabilistic forecasts are provided by means of predictive probability distributions over the Iberian Peninsula down to 10-km grid spacing. In order to carry out the verification, 25 km grid of observational precipitation records over Spain from the Spanish Climatic Network has been used to evaluate the ensemble accuracy together with the mean model performance and forecast variability by means of comparisons between such records and the ensemble forecasts. This verification has been carried out upscaling the 10 km probabilistic forecast to the observational data grid. Temporal evolution of precipitation forecasts for spatial averaged ensemble members and the ensemble mean is shown, illustrating the consistency of the SREPS. Such evolutions summarize the SREPS information, showing each of the members as well as the ensemble mean evolutions. The Talagrand diagram derived from the SREPS results shows underdispersion which indicates some bias behaviour. The Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve shows a very outstanding area, indicating potential usefulness of the forecasting system. The forecast probability and the mean observed frequency present good agreement with the SREPS results close to the no-skill line. Because the probability has a good reliability and a positive contribution to the brier skill score, a positive value of this skill is obtained. Moreover, the probabilistic meteogram of the spatial daily mean precipitation values shows the range of forecast values, providing discrete probability information in different quantile intervals. The epsgram shows different daily distributions, indicating the predictability of each day.


Author(s):  
Alexander S. Lelekov ◽  
Anton V. Shiryaev

The work is devoted to modeling the growth of optically dense microalgae cultures in natural light. The basic model is based on the idea of the two-stage photoautotrophic growth of microalgae. It is shown that the increase in the intensity of sunlight in the first half of the day can be described by a linear equation. Analytical equations for the growth of biomass of microalgae and its macromolecular components are obtained. As the initial conditions, it is assumed that at the time of sunrise, the concentration of reserve biomass compounds is zero. The simulation results show that after sunrise, the growth of the microalgae culture is due only to an increase in the reserve part of the biomass, while the structural part practically does not change over six hours. Changes in the ratio of the reserve and structural parts of the biomass indicate a change in the biochemical composition of cells.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (41) ◽  
pp. 57-62
Author(s):  
SHAVKAT KLYCHEV ◽  
◽  
BAKHRAMOV SAGDULLA ◽  
VALERIY KHARCHENKO ◽  
VLADIMIR PANCHENKO ◽  
...  

There are needed energy (heat) accumulators to increase the efficiency of solar installations, including solar collectors (water heaters, air heaters, dryers). One of the tasks of designing heat accumulators is to ensure its minimal heat loss. The article considers the problem of determining the distribution of temperatures and heat losses by convection and radiation of the heat insulation-accumulating body (water) system for a ball heat accumulator under symmetric boundary conditions. The problem is solved numerically according to the program developed on the basis of the proposed «gap method». (Research purpose) The research purpose is in determining heat losses by convection and radiation of a two-layer ball heat accumulator with symmetric boundary conditions. (Materials and methods) Authors used the Fourier heat equation for spherical bodies. The article presents the determined boundary and initial conditions for bodies and their surfaces. (Results and discussion) The thickness of the insulation and the volume of the heat accumulator affect the dynamics and values of heat loss. The effect of increasing the thickness of the thermal insulation decreases with increasing its thickness, starting with a certain volume of the heat accumulator or with R > 0.3 meters, the heat losses change almost linearly over time. The dynamics of heat loss decreases with increasing shelf life, but the losses remain large. (Conclusions) Authors have developed a method and program for numerical calculation of heat loss and temperature over time in a spherical two-layer heat accumulator with symmetric boundary conditions, taking into account both falling and intrinsic radiation. The proposed method allows to unify the boundary conditions between contacting bodies.


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