scholarly journals The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3461-3482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. O'Neill ◽  
Claudia Tebaldi ◽  
Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

scholarly journals The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. O'Neill ◽  
Claudia Tebaldi ◽  
Detlef van Vuuren ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP6) that that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land-use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP’s objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modelling, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the next IPCC assessment. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted scientific questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land-use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with climate model projections expected to be available within the 2018–2020 time frame.

scholarly journals Influence of future climate and cropland expansion on isoprene emissions and tropospheric ozone

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 1011-1024 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. J. Squire ◽  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
N. L. Abraham ◽  
D. J. Beerling ◽  
C. N. Hewitt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Over the 21st century, changes in CO2 levels, climate and land use are expected to alter the global distribution of vegetation, leading to changes in trace gas emissions from plants, including, importantly, the emissions of isoprene. This, combined with changes in anthropogenic emissions, has the potential to impact tropospheric ozone levels, which above a certain level are harmful to animals and vegetation. In this study we use a biogenic emissions model following the empirical parameterisation of the MEGAN model, with vegetation distributions calculated by the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM) to explore a range of potential future (2095) changes in isoprene emissions caused by changes in climate (including natural land use changes), land use, and the inhibition of isoprene emissions by CO2. From the present-day (2000) value of 467 Tg C yr−1, we find that the combined impact of these factors could cause a net decrease in isoprene emissions of 259 Tg C yr−1 (55%) with individual contributions of +78 Tg C yr−1 (climate change), −190 Tg C yr−1 (land use) and −147 Tg C yr−1 (CO2 inhibition). Using these isoprene emissions and changes in anthropogenic emissions, a series of integrations is conducted with the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model with the aim of examining changes in ozone over the 21st century. Globally, all combined future changes cause a decrease in the tropospheric ozone burden of 27 Tg (7%) from 379 Tg in the present-day. At the surface, decreases in ozone of 6–10 ppb are calculated over the oceans and developed northern hemispheric regions, due to reduced NOx transport by PAN and reductions in NOx emissions in these areas respectively. Increases of 4–6 ppb are calculated in the continental tropics due to cropland expansion in these regions, increased CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions, and higher temperatures due to climate change. These effects outweigh the decreases in tropical ozone caused by increased tropical isoprene emissions with climate change. Our land use change scenario consists of cropland expansion, which is most pronounced in the tropics. The tropics are also where land use change causes the greatest increases in ozone. As such there is potential for increased crop exposure to harmful levels of ozone. However, we find that these ozone increases are still not large enough to raise ozone to such damaging levels.

scholarly journals Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs): Status for CMIP6

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duane Waliser ◽  
Peter J. Gleckler ◽  
Robert Ferraro ◽  
Karl E. Taylor ◽  
Sasha Ames ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects (Obs4MIPs) was initiated in 2010 to facilitate the use of observations in climate model evaluation and research, with a particular target being the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a major initiative of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). To this end, Obs4MIPs: 1) targets observed variables that can be compared to CMIP model variables, 2) utilizes dataset formatting specifications and metadata requirements closely aligned with CMIP model output, 3) provides brief technical documentation for each dataset, designed for non-experts and tailored towards relevance for model evaluation, including information on uncertainty, dataset merits and limitations, and 4) disseminates the data through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) platforms, making the observations searchable and accessible via the same portals as the model output. Taken together, these characteristics of the organization and structure of obs4MIPs should entice a more diverse community of researchers to engage in the comparison of model output with observations and to contribute to a more comprehensive evaluation of the climate models. At present, the number of obs4MIPs datasets has grown to about 80, many undergoing updates, with another 20 or so in preparation, and more than 100 proposed and under consideration. Current global satellite-based datasets include, but are not limited to, humidity and temperature profiles; a wide range of cloud and aerosol observations; ocean surface wind, temperature, height, and sea ice fraction; surface and top of atmosphere longwave and shortwave radiation; along with ozone (O3), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) products. Proposed products expected for inclusion for CMIP6 analysis include, but are not limited to, alternative products for the above quantities, along with additional products for ocean surface flux and chlorophyll products, a number of vegetation products (e.g. FAPAR, LAI, burnt area fraction), ice sheet mass and height, carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). While most obs4MIPs datasets are delivered as monthly and global, greater emphasis is being places on products with higher time resolution (e.g. daily) and/or regional products. Along with an increasing number of datasets, obs4MIPs has implemented a number of capability upgrades including: 1) an updated obs4MIPs data specifications document that provides for additional search facets and generally improves congruence with CMIP6 specifications for model datasets, 2) a set of six easily understood indicators that help guide users as to a dataset’s maturity and suitability for application, and 3) an option to supply supplemental information about a dataset beyond what can be found in the standard metadata. With the maturation of the obs4MIPs framework, the dataset inclusion process, and the dataset formatting guidelines and resources, the scope of the observations being considered is expected to grow to include gridded in-situ datasets as well as datasets with a regional focus, and the ultimate intent is to judiciously expand this scope to any observation dataset that has applicability for evaluation of the types of Earth System models used in CMIP.

scholarly journals The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 2973-2998 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Lawrence ◽  
George C. Hurtt ◽  
Almut Arneth ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Kate V. Calvin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Land Use Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Process Level

Abstract. Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past–future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management strategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land–atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.

scholarly journals The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
B. Josse ◽  
P. J. Young ◽  
I. Cionni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of time slice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting composition changes and the associated radiative forcing. In this overview paper, we introduce the ACCMIP activity, the various simulations performed (with a requested set of 14) and the associated model output. The 16 ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions are responsible for a significant range across models, mostly in the case of ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to-model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results. However, models that are clear outliers are different enough from the other models to significantly affect their simulation of atmospheric chemistry.

scholarly journals The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP): Rationale and experimental design

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Lawrence ◽  
George C. Hurtt ◽  
Almut Arneth ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Kate V. Calvin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Land Use Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Process Level

Abstract. Human land-use activities have resulted in large to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the questions: (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past–future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy and are there regional land-management strategies with promise to help mitigate and/or adapt to climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from land-use change relative to fossil fuel emissions, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land-use, the unique impacts of land-cover change versus land management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent that impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use. LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use dataset, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to-. In this paper, we describe the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to experiments from the CMIP core, ScenarioMIP, and C4MIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model experiments designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request (primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, urban). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible.

scholarly journals Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3063-3085 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. S. Stevenson ◽  
P. J. Young ◽  
V. Naik ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
A Value ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12%), nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%), carbon monoxide (15 ± 3%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 ± 2%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m−2; relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

scholarly journals Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Christopher Chambers ◽  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Takashi Obase ◽  
Fuyuki Saito ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Reduced Emissions

Abstract Ice-sheet simulations of Antarctica extending to the year 3000 are analysed to investigate the long-term impacts of 21st-century warming. Climate projections are used as forcing until 2100 and afterwards no climate trend is applied. Fourteen experiments are for the ‘unabated warming’ pathway, and three are for the ‘reduced emissions’ pathway. For the unabated warming path simulations, West Antarctica suffers a much more severe ice loss than East Antarctica. In these cases, the mass loss amounts to an ensemble average of ~3.5 m sea-level equivalent (SLE) by the year 3000 and ~5.3 m for the most sensitive experiment. Four phases of mass loss occur during the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. For the reduced emissions pathway, the mean mass loss is ~0.24 m SLE. By demonstrating that the consequences of the 21st century unabated warming path forcing are large and long term, the results present a different perspective to ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Extended ABUMIP (Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project) simulations, assuming sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse, with and without bedrock rebound, corroborate a negative feedback for ice loss found in previous studies, where bedrock rebound acts to slow the rate of ice loss.

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