Evaluation of impact of climate change and anthropogenic change on regional hydrology
Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) have been widely used to simulate current and future climate at the global scale. However, the development of frameworks to apply GCMs to assess potential climate change impacts on regional hydrologic systems and compliance with water resource regulations is more recent. It is important to predict potential impacts of future climate change on streamflows and groundwater levels to reduce risks and increase resilience in water resources management and planning. This study evaluated future streamflows and groundwater levels in the Tampa Bay region in west-central Florida using an ensemble of different GCMs, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) methods, and water use scenarios to drive an integrated hydrologic model (IHM). Eight GCMs were bias-corrected and downscaled using the Bias Correction and Stochastic Analog (BCSA) downscaling method and then used, together with three ET0 methods, to drive the IHM for eight different human water use scenarios. Results showed that changes in projected streamflow were most sensitive to GCM selection, however, projections of groundwater level change were sensitive to both GCM and water use scenario. Projected changes in streamflow and groundwater level were relatively insensitive to the ET0 methods evaluated in this study. Six of eight GCMs projected a decrease in streamflow and groundwater level in the future regardless of water use scenario or ET method. These results indicate a high probability of a reduction in future water supply in the Tampa Bay region if environmental regulations intended to protect current aquatic ecosystems do not adapt to the changing climate.