The Influence of a Prolonged Meteorological Drought on the Catchment Water Storage Capacity: A Hydrological Model Perspective
Abstract. Understanding the propagation process of prolonged meteorological droughts (i.e., decade) helps solve the problem of increasing water scarcity around the world. Historical literature studied the propagation between different drought types (e.g., from meteorological to hydrological drought) with mainly statistical approaches, however, little attention has been paid to the causality between the meteorological drought with potential changes in the Catchment Water Storage Capacity (CWSC) where the latter plays a critical role in catchment response behavior to former. This study used the temporal variation in the estimated value of a model parameter that denotes the CWSC in its model structure to reflect the potential changes in real CWSC. The most likely Change points of the CWSC were determined based on the Bayesian Change point analysis. Also, the possible association and linkage between the shift in the CWSC and the time-lag of the catchment (i.e., time-lag between the occurrence of the drought with the Change point) with multiple catchment properties and climate characteristics have been studied. Catchments from southeastern Australia were used as a study area to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Results indicated that (1) in 62.7 % of the catchments, the sustained drought causes significant shifts in the CWSC. The shift led to the opposite response in two subsets of catchments, i.e., 48.2 % of catchments had lower runoff generation rates for a given rainfall while 14.5 % of catchments had higher runoff generation rate. (2) Catchments with larger elevation and slope, lower forest coverage of Evergreen Broadleaf Forest are more likely to have increase in the CWSC during a chronic drought while smaller catchments with lower elevation, lower coverage of the Evergreen Broadleaf Forest are more likely to have a decrease in the CWSC. (3) The changed catchments were not equally susceptible to the pressure due to persistent meteorological drought. Catchments with a lower proportion of Evergreen Broadleaf Forest usually have longer time-lag and are more resilient. This study improves our understanding of possible changes in CWSC induced by a prolonged meteorological drought, which will help improve our ability to simulate the hydrological system.