scholarly journals Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 10319-10364 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
S. Peña-Haro ◽  
A. Garcia-Prats ◽  
A. F. Mocholi-Almudever ◽  
L. Henriquez-Dole ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Groundwater Flow ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Nitrate Concentrations ◽  
Groundwater Quantity ◽  
And Storage

Abstract. Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate and land uses will alter the hydrologic cycles and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting the behavior of recharge and discharge conditions under future climatic and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system in Spain, in the last decades the transformation from dry to irrigated lands has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table in one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Streamflow depletion is compromising the related ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. The intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is also leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. In this paper we analyze the potential impact of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modelling framework consisting of the sequentially coupling of a watershed agriculturally-based hydrological model (SWAT) with the ground-water model MODFLOW and mass-transport model MT3D. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing ET and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream-aquifer interaction. SWAT and MODFLOW outputs (nitrate loads from SWAT, groundwater velocity field from MODFLOW) are used as MT3D inputs for assessing the fate and transport of nitrate leached from the topsoil. Results on river discharge, crop yields, groundwater levels and groundwater nitrate concentrations obtained from simulation fit well to the observed values. Three climate change scenarios have been considered, corresponding to 3 different GCMs for emission scenario A1B, covering the control period, and short, medium and long-term future periods. A multi-temporal analysis of LULC change was carried out, helped by the study of historical trends by remote sensing images and key driving forces to explain LULC transitions. Markov chains and European scenarios and projections have been used to quantify trends in the future. The cellular automata technique was applied for stochastic modeling future LULC maps. The results show the sensitivity of groundwater quantity and quality (nitrate pollution) to climate and land use changes, and the need to implement adaptation measures in order to prevent further groundwater level declines and increasing nitrate concentrations. The sequential modelling chain has been proved to be a valuable assessment and management tool for supporting the development of sustainable management strategies.

scholarly journals Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 1677-1693 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
S. Peña-Haro ◽  
A. García-Prats ◽  
A. F. Mocholi-Almudever ◽  
L. Henriquez-Dole ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Groundwater Flow ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nitrate Concentrations ◽  
Groundwater Quantity ◽  
And Storage

Abstract. Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream–aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream–aquifer interaction. SWAT and MODFLOW outputs (nitrate loads from SWAT, groundwater velocity field from MODFLOW) are used as MT3DMS inputs for assessing the fate and transport of nitrate leached from the topsoil. Three climate change scenarios have been considered, corresponding to three different general circulation models (GCMs) for emission scenario A1B that covers the control period, and short-, medium- and long-term future periods. A multi-temporal analysis of LULC change was carried out, helped by the study of historical trends (from remote-sensing images) and key driving forces to explain LULC transitions. Markov chains and European scenarios and projections were used to quantify trends in the future. The cellular automata technique was applied for stochastic modeling future LULC maps. Simulated values of river discharge, crop yields, groundwater levels and nitrate concentrations fit well to the observed ones. The results show the response of groundwater quantity and quality (nitrate pollution) to climate and land use changes, with decreasing groundwater recharge and an increase in nitrate concentrations. The sequential modeling chain has been proven to be a valuable assessment tool for supporting the development of sustainable management strategies.

scholarly journals Assessing human and environmental pressures of global land-use change 2000–2010

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Creutzig ◽  
Christopher Bren d'Amour ◽  
Ulf Weddige ◽  
Sabine Fuss ◽  
Tim Beringer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Agricultural Expansion ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Environmental Pressures ◽  
World Regions ◽  
Global Land ◽  
Spatially Explicit Data

Non-technical summaryGlobal land is turning into an increasingly scarce resource. We here present a comprehensive assessment of co-occuring land-use change from 2000 until 2010, compiling existing spatially explicit data sources for different land uses, and building on a rich literature addressing specific land-use changes in all world regions. This review systematically categorizes patterns of land use, including regional urbanization and agricultural expansion but also globally telecoupled land-use change for all world regions. Managing land-use change patterns across the globe requires global governance.

scholarly journals Land Use Changes in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua: A Systems Dynamic Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (16) ◽  
pp. 65-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Peña ◽  
César M. Fuentes
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Ciudad Juarez ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
The City

The objective of this article is to offer a model to simulate land use changes in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico. The city faces serious challenges posed by accelerated demographic and urban growth. In its struggle to respond to urban land development pressures, governments, planning agencies and social civil organizations are overwhelmed by a multitude of concerns. The analysis of land use change revolves around two central and interrelated questions: What drives/ causes land use change? What are the environmental and socio-demographic impacts of land change? The land use changes are approached as a complex system in which the elements that define the system and how these relate to each are identified. The development of dynamic simulation models that allow for the generation of different scenarios can be an important tool for urban planning. The software used to simulate the land uses changes is Stella®. The results of the model simulated the demand for land among different land uses (commercial, industrial and residential) in the next 10 or 20 years.

scholarly journals Analysis of Akure Urban Land Use Change Detection from Remote Imagery Perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julius Oluranti Owoeye ◽  
Oyewole Amos Ibitoye
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Change Detection ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Imagery Perspective ◽  
Urban Land Use Change ◽  
The City

This study presents the analysis of Akure urban land use change detection from remote imagery perspective. Efforts were made to examine the direction that the continuous expansion of the city tends towards since its inception as a state capital in 1976. Using Aerial Imagery Overlay (AIO), the pattern of land use changes in Akure and its environs were determined. This involves imageries interpolation and overlaying to determine the land use changes, direction, and extent of the expansion. Findings revealed unguided expansion in the growth of the city which affects the pattern of land uses within the city and, by extension, into the adjoining settlements. There were incompatible conversions in land uses and undue encroachment into green areas in the adjoining communities. The study suggests effective zoning strategy on unguided nature of urban development whose effects on land use are very prominent in the study area. Adequate monitoring by the Development Control Department and other stakeholders in urban planning is equally suggested to mitigate the incompatible land use changes in the area.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Patterns of Land-Use Changes in Lithuania

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 619
Author(s):  
Daiva Juknelienė ◽  
Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė ◽  
Jolanta Valčiukienė ◽  
Virginija Atkocevičienė ◽  
Gintautas Mozgeris
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Management Policies

The spatially explicit assessment of land use and land-use change patterns can identify critical areas and provide insights to improve land management policies and associated decisions. This study mapped the land uses and land-use changes in Lithuanian municipalities since 1971. Additionally, an analysis was conducted of three shorter periods, corresponding to major national land-use policy epochs. Data on land uses, available from the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory (NFI) and collected on an annual basis with the primary objective of conducting greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting and reporting for the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sectors, were explored. The overall trend in Lithuania during the last five decades has been an increase in the area of forest and built-up land and decrease in the area of producing land, meadow/pasture, wetlands, and other land uses. Nevertheless, the development trends for the proportions of producing land and meadow/pasture changed trajectories several times, and the breakpoints were linked with important dates in Lithuanian history and associated with the reorganization of land management and land-use relations. Global Moran’s I statistic and Anselin Local Moran’s I were used to check for global and local patterns in the distribution of land use in Lithuanian municipalities. The proportions of producing land and pasture/meadow remained spatially autocorrelated during the whole period analysed. Local spatial clusters and outliers were identified for all land-use types used in GHG inventories in the LULUCF sector at all the time points analysed. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to explain the land-use change trends during several historical periods due to differing land management policies, utilizing data from freely available databases as the regressors. The percentage of variance explained by the models ranged from 37 to 65, depending on the land-use type and the period in question.

scholarly journals Biodiversity data obsolescence and land uses changes

PeerJ ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. e2743 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nora Escribano ◽  
Arturo H. Ariño ◽  
David Galicia
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Small Mammals ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Sampling Effort ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Biodiversity Data ◽  
Biodiversity Patterns

BackgroundPrimary biodiversity records (PBR) are essential in many areas of scientific research as they document the biodiversity through time and space. However, concerns about PBR quality and fitness-for-use have grown, especially as derived from taxonomical, geographical and sampling effort biases. Nonetheless, the temporal bias stemming from data ageing has received less attention. We examine the effect of changes in land use in the information currentness, and therefore data obsolescence, in biodiversity databases.MethodsWe created maps of land use changes for three periods (1956–1985, 1985–2000 and 2000–2012) at 5-kilometres resolution. For each cell we calculated the percentage of land use change within each period. We then overlaid distribution data about small mammals, and classified each data as ‘non-obsolete or ‘obsolete,’ depending on both the amount of land use changes in the cell, and whether changes occurred at or after the data sampling’s date.ResultsA total of 14,528 records out of the initial 59,677 turned out to be non-obsolete after taking into account the changes in the land uses in Navarra. These obsolete data existed in 115 of the 156 cells analysed. Furthermore, more than one half of the remaining cells holding non-obsolete records had not been visited at least for the last fifteen years.ConclusionLand use changes challenge the actual information obtainable from biodiversity datasets and therefore its potential uses. With the passage of time, one can expect a steady increase in the availability and use of biological records—but not without them becoming older and likely to be obsolete by land uses changes. Therefore, it becomes necessary to assess records’ obsolescence, as it may jeopardize the knowledge and perception of biodiversity patterns.

Simulating Land Use Policies Targeted to Protect Biodiversity with the CLUE-Scanner Model

2011 ◽  
pp. 119-132
Author(s):  
Peter H. Verburg ◽  
Jan Peter Lesschen ◽  
Eric Koomen ◽  
Marta Pérez-Soba
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Biodiversity Indicator ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Land Use Change Model ◽  
Critical Regions

This chapter presents an integrated modelling approach for assessing land use changes and its effects on biodiversity. A modelling framework consisting of a macro-economic model, a land use change model, and biodiversity indicator models is described and illustrated with a scenario study for the European Union. A reference scenario is compared to a scenario in which a number of possible policies for conservation and protection of biodiversity are assumed to have been implemented. The results are evaluated by an indicator of the habitat quality for biodiversity and an indicator of landscape connectivity. The results illustrate that land use change has spatially diverse impacts on biodiversity. The effectiveness of the assumed policies is region and context dependent. The modelling framework can thus provide ex-ante assessments of policies and identify critical regions for biodiversity conservation and assist in targeting policies and incentives to protect biodiversity in vulnerable areas.

scholarly journals Predicting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1369-1385 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Dams ◽  
S. T. Woldeamlak ◽  
O. Batelaan
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Groundwater System ◽  
Groundwater Quantity ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Land-use changes are frequently indicated to be one of the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. For land-use change, groundwater research has mainly focused on the change in water quality thereby neglecting changes in quantity. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land-use changes, from 2000 until 2020, on the hydrological balance and in particular on groundwater quantity, as results from a case study in the Kleine Nete basin, Belgium. New is that this study tests a methodology, which couples a land-use change model with a water balance and a steady-state groundwater model. Four future land-use scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are modelled with the CLUE-S model. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that the average recharge decreases with 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2, respectively, over the 20 covered years. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level in the basin, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% for scenario A1 and B2, respectively. Although these averages appear to indicate small changes in the groundwater system, spatial analysis shows that much larger changes are located near the major cities in the study area. Hence, spatial planning should take better account of effects of land-use change on the groundwater system and define mitigating actions for reducing the negative impacts of land-use change.

Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matheus Supriyanto Rumetna ◽  
Eko Sediyono ◽  
Kristoko Dwi Hartomo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Complete Spatial Randomness ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Global Moran’S I ◽  
Spatial Randomness

Abstract. Bantul Regency is a part of Yogyakarta Special Province Province which experienced land use changes. This research aims to assess the changes of shape and level of land use, to analyze the pattern of land use changes, and to find the appropriateness of RTRW land use in Bantul District in 2011-2015. Analytical methods are employed including Geoprocessing techniques and analysis of patterns of distribution of land use changes with Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I). The results of this study of land use in 2011, there are thirty one classifications, while in 2015 there are thirty four classifications. The pattern of distribution of land use change shows that land use change in 2011-2015 has a Complete Spatial Randomness pattern. Land use suitability with the direction of area function at RTRW is 24030,406 Ha (46,995406%) and incompatibility of 27103,115 Ha or equal to 53,004593% of the total area of Bantul Regency.Keywords: Geographical Information System, Land Use, Geoprocessing, Global Moran's I, Bantul Regency. Abstrak. Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I. Kabupaten Bantul merupakan bagian dari Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta yang mengalami perubahan tata guna lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji perubahan bentuk dan luas penggunaan lahan, menganalisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan, serta kesesuaian tata guna lahan terhadap RTRW yang terjadi di Kabupaten Bantul pada tahun 2011-2015. Metode analisis yang digunakan antara lain teknik Geoprocessing serta analisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan dengan Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah penggunaan tanah pada tahun 2011, terdapat tiga puluh satu klasifikasi, sedangkan pada tahun 2015 terdapat tiga puluh empat klasifikasi. Pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tata guna lahan tahun 2011-2015 memiliki pola Complete Spatial Randomness. Kesesuaian tata guna lahan dengan arahan fungsi kawasan pada RTRW adalah seluas 24030,406 Ha atau mencapai 46,995406 % dan ketidaksesuaian seluas 27103,115 Ha atau sebesar 53,004593 % dari total luas wilayah Kabupaten Bantul. Kata Kunci: Sistem Informasi Georafis, tata guna lahan, Geoprocessing, Global Moran’s I, Kabupaten Bantul.

scholarly journals Changes in Coastal Agricultural Land Use in Response to Climate Change: An Assessment Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Household Survey Data in Tien Hai District, Thai Binh Province, Vietnam

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 627
Author(s):  
Duong H. Nong ◽  
An T. Ngo ◽  
Hoa P. T. Nguyen ◽  
Thuy T. Nguyen ◽  
Lan T. Nguyen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Land Uses

We analyzed the agricultural land-use changes in the coastal areas of Tien Hai district, Thai Binh province, in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 data. We used the object-oriented classification method with the maximum likelihood algorithm to classify six types of land uses. The series of land-use maps we produced had an overall accuracy of more than 80%. We then conducted a spatial analysis of the 5-year land-use change using ArcGIS software. In addition, we surveyed 150 farm households using a structured questionnaire regarding the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and land uses, as well as farmers’ adaptation and responses. The results showed that from 2005 to 2020, cropland decreased, while aquaculture land and forest land increased. We observed that the most remarkable decreases were in the area of rice (485.58 ha), the area of perennial crops (109.7 ha), and the area of non-agricultural land (747.35 ha). The area of land used for aquaculture and forest increased by 566.88 ha and 772.60 ha, respectively. We found that the manifestations of climate change, such as extreme weather events, saltwater intrusion, drought, and floods, have had a profound impact on agricultural production and land uses in the district, especially for annual crops and aquaculture. The results provide useful information for state authorities to design land-management strategies and solutions that are economic and effective in adapting to climate change.

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