Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security – assessing trade-offs for reservoir operation and irrigation investment in Kenya's Tana basin

Abstract. Competition for water between key economic sectors and the environment means agreeing on allocation is challenging. Managing releases from the three major dams in Kenya's Tana River basin with its 4.4 million inhabitants, 567 MW of installed hydropower capacity, 33 000 ha of irrigation and ecologically important wetlands and forests is a pertinent example. This research seeks to identify and help decision-makers visualise reservoir management strategies which result in the best possible (Pareto-optimal) allocation of benefits between sectors. Secondly we seek to show how trade-offs between achievable benefits shift with the implementation of new proposed rice, cotton and biofuel irrigation projects. To identify the Pareto-optimal trade-offs we link a water resources management model to a multi-criteria search algorithm. The decisions or "levers" of the management problem are volume dependent release rules for the three major dams and extent of investment in new irrigation schemes. These decisions are optimised for objectives covering provision of water supply and irrigation, energy generation and maintenance of ecosystem services which underpin tourism and local livelihoods. Visual analytic plots allow decision makers to assess multi-reservoir rule-sets by understanding their impacts on different beneficiaries. Results quantify how economic gains from proposed irrigation schemes trade-off against disturbance of the flow regime which supports ecosystem services. Full implementation of the proposed schemes is shown to be Pareto-optimal, but at high environmental and social cost. The clarity and comprehensiveness of "best-case" trade-off analysis is a useful vantage point from which to tackle the interdependence and complexity of water-energy-food "nexus" challenges.

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Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security – Assessing trade-offs from reservoir operation and irrigation investments in Kenya's Tana Basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-18-3259-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 18 (8) ◽

pp. 3259-3277 ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

A. P. Hurford ◽

J. J. Harou

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Search Algorithm ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Pareto Optimal ◽

Management Problem ◽

Economic Sectors ◽

Trade Off ◽

Trade Offs

Abstract. Competition for water between key economic sectors and the environment means agreeing allocations is challenging. Managing releases from the three major dams in Kenya's Tana River basin with its 4.4 million inhabitants, 567 MW of installed hydropower capacity, 33 000 ha of irrigation and ecologically important wetlands and forests is a pertinent example. This research seeks firstly to identify and help decision-makers visualise reservoir management strategies which result in the best possible (Pareto-optimal) allocation of benefits between sectors. Secondly, it seeks to show how trade-offs between achievable benefits shift with the implementation of proposed new rice, cotton and biofuel irrigation projects. To approximate the Pareto-optimal trade-offs we link a water resources management simulation model to a multi-criteria search algorithm. The decisions or "levers" of the management problem are volume-dependent release rules for the three major dams and extent of investment in new irrigation schemes. These decisions are optimised for eight objectives covering the provision of water supply and irrigation, energy generation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Trade-off plots allow decision-makers to assess multi-reservoir rule-sets and irrigation investment options by visualising their impacts on different beneficiaries. Results quantify how economic gains from proposed irrigation schemes trade-off against the disturbance of ecosystems and local livelihoods that depend on them. Full implementation of the proposed schemes is shown to come at a high environmental and social cost. The clarity and comprehensiveness of "best-case" trade-off analysis is a useful vantage point from which to tackle the interdependence and complexity of "water-energy-food nexus" resource security issues.

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The Effects of Decision Time on Perceptions of Decisions and Decision Makers in (Moral) Trade-Off Scenarios

10.31234/osf.io/37t2r ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Anna Katharina Spälti ◽

Mark John Brandt ◽

Marcel Zeelenberg

Keyword(s):

Decision Process ◽

Decision Time ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Process Information ◽

Total N ◽

Trade Off ◽

Financial Gain ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Sacred Values ◽

Moral Context

People often have to make trade-offs. We study three types of trade-offs: 1) "secular trade-offs" where no moral or sacred values are at stake, 2) "taboo trade-offs" where sacred values are pitted against financial gain, and 3) "tragic trade-offs" where sacred values are pitted against other sacred values. Previous research (Critcher et al., 2011; Tetlock et al., 2000) demonstrated that tragic and taboo trade-offs are not only evaluated by their outcomes, but are also evaluated based on the time it took to make the choice. We investigate two outstanding questions: 1) whether the effect of decision time differs for evaluations of decisions compared to decision makers and 2) whether moral contexts are unique in their ability to influence character evaluations through decision process information. In two experiments (total N = 1434) we find that decision time affects character evaluations, but not evaluations of the decision itself. There were no significant differences between tragic trade-offs and secular trade-offs, suggesting that the decisions structure may be more important in evaluations than moral context. Additionally, the magnitude of the effect of decision time shows us that decision time, may be of less practical use than expected. We thus urge, to take a closer examination of the processes underlying decision time and its perception.

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Response and Simulation of Trade-offs/synergies Among Ecosystem Services to Ecological Restoration Program: a Case Study of the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, China

10.21203/rs.3.rs-571046/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tiantian Chen ◽

Li Peng ◽

Qiang Wang

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Carbon Sequestration ◽

Habitat Quality ◽

Soil Conservation ◽

Food Production ◽

Water Yield ◽

Ecological Security ◽

Trade Off ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Synergistic Relationships

Abstract The Grain to Green Program (GTGP), as a policy tool for advancing ecological progress, has been operating for 20 years and has played an important role in improving ecosystem service values. However, there are few studies on the trade-off/synergy changes in ecosystem services during the implementation of the GTGP and how to select the optimal scheme for regional ecological security based on the trade-off relationship. Thus, we took the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) in southwestern China as the study area; we used multisource data and the corresponding models and methods to estimate the regional food production, carbon sequestration, water yield, soil conservation and habitat quality services. Then, we clarified the trade-off/synergy relationships among ecosystem services from 2000 to 2015 by spatial analysis and statistical methods and evaluated the influential mechanism of the GTGP on trade-offs between ecosystem services. Finally, different risk scenarios were constructed by the ordered weighted average algorithm (OWA), and the regional ecological security pattern was simulated under the principle of the best protection efficiency and the highest trade-off degree. We found that (1) the trade-offs/synergies of regional ecosystem services changed significantly from 2000 to 2015. Among them, food production, water yield and soil conservation have always had trade-off relationships, while carbon sequestration, soil conservation and habitat quality have all had synergistic relationships. The relationships between carbon sequestration and water yield and food production changed from non-correlated to trade-off/synergistic, and the relationship between habitat quality and food production and water yield was not obvious. (2) Except for carbon sequestration service, the trade-off intensity between other ecosystem services decreased, indicating that the change trend of ecosystem services in the same direction was obvious. (3) The GTGP has been an important factor affecting the trade-off intensity of regional ecosystem services. On the one hand, it has strengthened the synergistic relationships among carbon sequestration, soil conservation and habitat quality; on the other hand, it has increased the constraints of water resources on soil conservation and vegetation restoration. (4) The decision risk coefficient α = 1.6 was the most suitable scenario, the total amount of regional ecosystem services was high, and the allocation was balanced under this scenario. The ecological security area corresponding to this scenario was also the area with high carbon sequestration and habitat quality services. The purpose of this study was to provide a scientific reference for the precise implementation of the GTGP.

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Spatial Trade-Offs and Temporal Evolution of Multiple Ecosystem Services in a Marine-Terrestrial Urban-Agglomeration Zone

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17041231 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (4) ◽

pp. 1231 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Huaxiang Chen ◽

Lina Tang ◽

Quanyi Qiu ◽

Baosheng Wang ◽

Weixiang Hu

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Industrial Development ◽

Temporal Evolution ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Key Factors ◽

Research To Practice ◽

Construction Land ◽

Trade Offs ◽

To Come

It takes some time for changes to come in ecosystem services, and trade-offs occur in the process of changes. As opposed to a point in time, we use data spanning the years 2000–2005, 2005–2010, and 2010–2015 to study this research. After quantifying types of ecosystem services, this paper uses spatial correlation analysis and root-mean square deviation (RMSD) method to explore the relationships among ecosystem services and calculate the degree of spatial trade-offs (DT). Results show that the construction land increased substantially albeit at a declining rate of growth, and the degree of trade-offs (DT) increased with nontrivial differences in space. The hotspots for trade-offs are spatially aggregated in some areas but have varying patterns between ecosystem service pairs. The increasing area (IA) of construction land does not promote increased DT until the former reaches a certain threshold. With the exception of land use changes, type of industrial development is one of the key factors that influence the trade-offs of ecosystem services in the research region. We apply the models and methods used in this research to practice and discuss the practical value of our results for planners and decision makers vis-à-vis the design and instigation of appropriate development strategies.

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The valuation of ecosystem services of the Khangain nuruu national park

Mongolian Journal of Agricultural Sciences ◽

10.5564/mjas.v22i03.960 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (03) ◽

pp. 123-131

Author(s):

Ganzorig G ◽

Enkh-Amgalan G ◽

Аmartuvshin O ◽

Densmaa Sh ◽

Gantulga Ts

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

National Park ◽

Natural Capital ◽

Economic Value ◽

Economic Loss ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Economic Sectors ◽

Long Run ◽

Business As Usual ◽

Livestock Husbandry

The state protected areas (PAs) lack with financial resource, which weakens the PA management including lack of human resource and their skill development, transparent cooperations, and of equipments and vehicles for ecosystem conservation and rehabilitation activities of the PAs. Thus, research on analysing the economic value of the PAs is vital important for the decision makers and policy planners, because they have lack of understanding of benefits of investing to the PAs. In 2013, United Nations Development Programme published a book that reflects the approach of “Targeted Scenario Analysis”, which is used in our study. The Khangain Nuruu National Park (KNPA) locates in 11 soums of three provinces, namely Arkhangai, Bayankhongor and Uvurkhangai, and we analyzed economic value of the KNPA for six economic sectors (livestock husbandry, crop farming, forestry, tourism, mining and industry), and two non-economic but consumption based sectors (carbon sequestration from larch trees, and drinkable water). The economic value or the contribution to the economy of Mongolia from KNPA was about MNT 165.4 billion in 2014, and it summed up to MNT 1 trillion between 2002 and 2014. Livestock husbandry, mining and tourism sectors benefitted about two third of this value. In case of “Business As Usual-BAU” scenario takes, continuesly, in place the total economic loss would reach to MNT 1.4 trillion between 2015 and 2040, compared to “Investing in Natural Capital-INC” scenario. Hence, implementing INC in the KNPA management would save this loss. We recommend to increase the financial resources for the KNPA management, therefore the economic sectors will not diminish due to lack of ecosystem services of the PA, which would then develop the sectors in the long run sustainably.

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“Satisficing” and trade-offs: evaluating rebuilding strategies for Greenland halibut off the east coast of Canada

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fsq083 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 67 (9) ◽

pp. 1896-1902 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

David C. M. Miller ◽

Peter A. Shelton

Keyword(s):

Management Strategy ◽

East Coast ◽

A Priori ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Optimal Solution ◽

Greenland Halibut ◽

Trade Off ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Survey Estimates ◽

Performance Statistics

Abstract Miller, D. C. M., and Shelton, P. A. 2010. “Satisficing” and trade-offs: evaluating rebuilding strategies for Greenland halibut off the east coast of Canada. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 1896–1902. To be effective, management strategy evaluation (MSE) requires a well-defined procedure for comparing the merits of candidate management strategies. We explore a two-step approach of “satisficing” followed by a trade-off analysis. “Satisficing” (a portmanteau of “satisfy” and “suffice”) is a decision-making procedure that attempts to meet criteria for adequacy, rather than identify an optimal solution. As a case study, we consider the results from a comprehensive MSE for Greenland halibut off the east coast of Canada, carried out under the auspices of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. First, we apply satisficing to the results to determine which rebuilding strategies achieve pre-specified thresholds set for imperative performance statistics relating to resource conservation, yield, and stability of the fishery. Next, trade-offs among important, but not necessarily imperative, performance statistics are evaluated for those strategies that pass the satisficing step. For Greenland halibut, a management strategy containing a simple feedback harvest-control rule based on recent trends in survey estimates of abundance satisfices all imperative requirements and provides the best trade-off in other performance statistics. The approach necessitates translating objectives for stock rebuilding and sustainable fisheries into operationally explicit terms and incorporates a priori consideration of stakeholders' concerns.

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Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in Response to Land Cover Dynamics in Jiangxi Province, China

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17093018 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (9) ◽

pp. 3018 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Xinmin Zhang ◽

Hualin Xie ◽

Jiaying Shi ◽

Tiangui Lv ◽

Caihua Zhou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Cover ◽

Ecosystem Service ◽

Food Production ◽

Waste Treatment ◽

Jiangxi Province ◽

Trade Off ◽

Ecosystem Services Value ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Land Cover Dynamics

This paper examines the ecosystem service values of Jiangxi province, China using the benefit transfer approach. The land cover dynamics results show that cropland and forest are the main land cover types in Jiangxi province. Urban land drastically increased after 2000, expanding from 846.54 km2 in 2000 to 2317.48 km2 in 2015. Forest and water obviously decreased across the study periods. Consequently, the total ecosystem service values decreased from 37.91 × 1010 Yuan in 1995 to 35.27 × 1010 Yuan in 2015. The values showed a declining trend, especially during the 1995–2000 period. The largest declines in ecosystem service values were caused by decreases in forest and water cover. Regulating services experienced the largest declines in ecosystem services value. Moreover, water supply showed the largest decline in ecosystem service value between 1995 and 2015. Not surprisingly, food production increased in the whole period, especially in the 1995–2000 period. Forest and cropland played the most important roles in the total ecosystem service values of Jiangxi province. We then discussed the relationship among ecosystem services based on the ecosystem service trade-off degree. The results show that the dominant relationship among ecosystem services in Jiangxi province was synergy; thus synergy mostly occurred in all ecosystem services except for food production from 1995 to 2015. However, during the 1995–2000 period, trade-offs mainly existed in both food production and waste treatment. The proportion of synergy greatly increased in the 2000–2015 period, and the synergistic relationship between waste treatment and other ecosystem services increased. However, the trade-off relationship between food production and other ecosystem services still has not improved, which should be concerned in the future. Changes in the percentage share of cropland showed a declining trend; thus, the potential risk of cropland loss should be monitored.

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A Trade-Off Navigation Framework as a Decision Support for Conflicting Sustainability Indicators within Circular Economy Implementation in the Manufacturing Industry

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13010314 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 314

Author(s):

Mariia Kravchenko ◽

Daniela C. A. Pigosso ◽

Tim C. McAloone

Keyword(s):

Manufacturing Industry ◽

Development Process ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Bottom Line ◽

Trade Off ◽

Sustainability Performance ◽

Sustainability Criteria ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Potential Risks ◽

Structured Approach

Integration of sustainability criteria from a triple bottom line perspective is considered a challenge for manufacturing actors, who are engaged in developing sustainability-oriented initiatives. The earlier in the development process the criteria are integrated and sustainability potential is evaluated, the more opportunities exist to introduce improvements and select an initiative with a highest sustainability potential. The challenge does not only lie in understanding what sustainability criteria to use to assess sustainability performance, but in managing conflicting results, known as trade-offs. Trade-offs are situations characterized by conflicts between the desired objectives, where it is impossible to satisfy all criteria simultaneously. Although sustainability trade-offs are common, there is a gap in the existing approaches for sustainability measurements to support trade-off dialogue and decision-making. If trade-offs are not acknowledged, there is a risk of accepting an initiative leading to sub-optimizations or higher impacts. Therefore, this study proposes a framework to support trade-off analysis in the early development stages of sustainability-oriented initiatives. The trade-off navigation framework relies on input data and a structured guidance, with the twofold objective: (i) help making trade-offs explicit, and (ii) provide a structured approach to support trade-off analysis and acceptability in a transparent manner. The purpose is to encourage a dynamic decision process and reinforce the knowledge of decision-makers about potential risks and opportunities behind their choices. Using a case of a product development involving CE principles, this paper discusses how a trade-off navigation framework was applied and evaluated by industrial and academic experts, leading to its improvement and identification of strengths and limitations.

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Ecosystem Services Assessment, Trade-Off and Bundles in the Yellow River Basin, China

10.21203/rs.3.rs-607828/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jie Yang ◽

Baopeng Xie ◽

Wenqian Tao

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

River Basin ◽

Yellow River ◽

Yellow River Basin ◽

The Yellow River ◽

Trade Off ◽

Trade Offs ◽

The Yellow River Basin ◽

Functional Areas

Abstract Understanding ecosystem services (ESs) and their interactions will help to formulate effective and sustainable land use management programs.This paper evaluates the water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ), taking the Yellow River Basin as the research object, by adopting the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade Offs) model. The Net Primary Productivity (NPP) was evaluated by CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach) model, and the spatial distribution map of five ESs were drawn, the correlation and bivariate spatial correlation were used to analyze the trade-off synergy relationships between the five ESs and express them spatially. The results show that NPP and HQ, CS and WY are trade-offs relationship, and other ecosystem services are synergistic. The trade-off synergy shows obvious spatial heterogeneity. Driven by different factors, the leading ecological function services in the Yellow River Basin can be divided into three areas, and WY and SC service leading functional areas are mainly distributed in HQ and CS service leading functional areas and NPP service leading functional areas.The results of functional bundles are obviously affected by natural conditions such as land use/cover types and climate in the Yellow River Basin, which can provide the basis for the Yellow River Basin to regulate ESs and maximize benefits.

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Observational Scale Matters for Ecosystem Services Interactions and Spatial Distributions: A Case Study of the Ussuri Watershed, China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su131910649 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 10649

Author(s):

Jian Zhang ◽

Hengxing Xiang ◽

Shizuka Hashimoto ◽

Toshiya Okuro

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Carbon Sequestration ◽

Water Retention ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Landscape Patterns ◽

Spatial Distributions ◽

The Sustainable Development ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Soil Retention

Understanding how observational scale affects the interactions and spatial distributions of ecosystem services is important for effective ecosystem assessment and management. We conducted a case study in the Ussuri watershed, Northeast China, to explore how observational scale (1 km to 15 km grid resolution) influences the correlations and spatial distributions of ecosystem services. Four ecosystem services of particular importance for the sustainable development of the study area were examined: carbon sequestration, habitat provision, soil retention, and water retention. Across the observational scales examined, trade-offs and synergies of extensively distributed ecosystem services were more likely to be robust compared with those of sparsely distributed ecosystem services, and hot/cold-spots of ecosystem services were more likely to persist when associated with large rather than small land-cover patches. Our analysis suggests that a dual-purpose strategy is the most appropriate for the management of carbon sequestration and habitat provision, and cross-scale management strategies are the most appropriate for the management of soil retention and water retention in the study area. Further studies to deepen our understanding of local landscape patterns will help determine the most appropriate observational scale for analyzing the spatial distributions of these ecosystem services.

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