What are the key drivers of regional differences in the water balance on the Tibetan Plateau?
Abstract. Lake-level fluctuations in closed basins on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) indicate climate-induced changes in the regional water balance. However, little is known about the region's key hydrological parameters, hampering the interpretation of these changes. The purpose of this study is to contribute to a more quantitative understanding of these controls. Four lakes in the south-central part of the TP were selected to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of water-balance components: Nam Co and Tangra Yumco (indicating increasing water levels), and Mapam Yumco and Paiku Co (indicating stable or slightly decreasing water levels). We present the results of an integrated approach combining hydrological modeling, atmospheric-model output and remote-sensing data. The hydrological model J2000g was adapted and extended according to the specific characteristics of closed lake basins on the TP and driven with "High Asia Refined analysis (HAR)" data at 10 km resolution for the period 2001–2010. Our results reveal that because of the small portion of glacier areas (1 to 7% of the total basin area) the contribution of glacier melt water accounts for only 14–30% of total runoff during the study period. Precipitation is found to be the principal factor controlling the water-balance in the four studied basins. The positive water balance in the Nam Co and Tangra Yumco basins was primarily related to larger precipitation amounts and thus higher runoff rates in comparison with the Paiku Co and Mapam Yumco basins. This study highlights the benefits of combining atmospheric and hydrological modeling. The presented approach can be readily transferred to other ungauged lake basins on the TP, opening new directions of research. Future work should go towards increasing the atmospheric model's spatial resolution and a better assessment of the model-chain uncertainties, especially in this region where observational data is missing.