scholarly journals Towards model evaluation and identification using Self-Organizing Maps

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 3953-3978 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Herbst ◽  
M. C. Casper
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Watershed Model ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Self Organizing

Abstract. The reduction of information contained in model time series through the use of aggregating statistical measures is very high compared to the amount of information that one would like to draw from it for model identification and calibration purposes. Applied within a model identification context, aggregating statistical performance measures are inadequate to capture details on time series characteristics. It has been readily shown that this loss of information on the residuals imposes important limitations on model identification and -diagnostics and thus constitutes an element of the overall model uncertainty. In this contribution we present an approach using a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to circumvent the identifiability problem induced by the low discriminatory power of aggregating performance measures. Instead, a Self-Organizing Map is used to differentiate the spectrum of model realizations, obtained from Monte-Carlo simulations with a distributed conceptual watershed model, based on the recognition of different patterns in time series. Further, the SOM is used instead of a classical optimization algorithm to identify the model realizations among the Monte-Carlo simulations that most closely approximate the pattern of the measured discharge time series. The results are analyzed and compared with the manually calibrated model as well as with the results of the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm (SCE-UA).

scholarly journals Towards model evaluation and identification using Self-Organizing Maps

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 657-667 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Herbst ◽  
M. C. Casper
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Equivalent Model ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Watershed Model ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Self Organizing

Abstract. The reduction of information contained in model time series through the use of aggregating statistical performance measures is very high compared to the amount of information that one would like to draw from it for model identification and calibration purposes. It has been readily shown that this loss imposes important limitations on model identification and -diagnostics and thus constitutes an element of the overall model uncertainty. In this contribution we present an approach using a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to circumvent the identifiability problem induced by the low discriminatory power of aggregating performance measures. Instead, a Self-Organizing Map is used to differentiate the spectrum of model realizations, obtained from Monte-Carlo simulations with a distributed conceptual watershed model, based on the recognition of different patterns in time series. Further, the SOM is used instead of a classical optimization algorithm to identify those model realizations among the Monte-Carlo simulation results that most closely approximate the pattern of the measured discharge time series. The results are analyzed and compared with the manually calibrated model as well as with the results of the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm (SCE-UA). In our study the latter slightly outperformed the SOM results. The SOM method, however, yields a set of equivalent model parameterizations and therefore also allows for confining the parameter space to a region that closely represents a measured data set. This particular feature renders the SOM potentially useful for future model identification applications.

scholarly journals Mapping model behaviour using Self-Organizing Maps

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 3517-3555 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Herbst ◽  
H. V. Gupta ◽  
M. C. Casper
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Watershed Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Data ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Self Organizing

Abstract. Hydrological model evaluation and identification essentially depends on the extraction of information from model time series and its processing. However, the type of information extracted by statistical measures has only very limited meaning because it does not relate to the hydrological context of the data. To overcome this inadequacy we exploit the diagnostic evaluation concept of Signature Indices, in which model performance is measured using theoretically relevant characteristics of system behaviour. In our study, a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) is used to process the Signatures extracted from Monte-Carlo simulations generated by a distributed conceptual watershed model. The SOM creates a hydrologically interpretable mapping of overall model behaviour, which immediately reveals deficits and trade-offs in the ability of the model to represent the different functional behaviours of the watershed. Further, it facilitates interpretation of the hydrological functions of the model parameters and provides preliminary information regarding their sensitivities. Most notably, we use this mapping to identify the set of model realizations (among the Monte-Carlo data) that most closely approximate the observed discharge time series in terms of the hydrologically relevant characteristics, and to confine the parameter space accordingly. Our results suggest that Signature Index based SOMs could potentially serve as tools for decision makers inasmuch as model realizations with specific Signature properties can be selected according to the purpose of the model application. Moreover, given that the approach helps to represent and analyze multi-dimensional distributions, it could be used to form the basis of an optimization framework that uses SOMs to characterize the model performance response surface. As such it provides a powerful and useful way to conduct model identification and model uncertainty analyses.

scholarly journals Mapping model behaviour using Self-Organizing Maps

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Herbst ◽  
H. V. Gupta ◽  
M. C. Casper
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Watershed Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Data ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Self Organizing

Abstract. Hydrological model evaluation and identification essentially involves extracting and processing information from model time series. However, the type of information extracted by statistical measures has only very limited meaning because it does not relate to the hydrological context of the data. To overcome this inadequacy we exploit the diagnostic evaluation concept of Signature Indices, in which model performance is measured using theoretically relevant characteristics of system behaviour. In our study, a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) is used to process the Signatures extracted from Monte-Carlo simulations generated by the distributed conceptual watershed model NASIM. The SOM creates a hydrologically interpretable mapping of overall model behaviour, which immediately reveals deficits and trade-offs in the ability of the model to represent the different functional behaviours of the watershed. Further, it facilitates interpretation of the hydrological functions of the model parameters and provides preliminary information regarding their sensitivities. Most notably, we use this mapping to identify the set of model realizations (among the Monte-Carlo data) that most closely approximate the observed discharge time series in terms of the hydrologically relevant characteristics, and to confine the parameter space accordingly. Our results suggest that Signature Index based SOMs could potentially serve as tools for decision makers inasmuch as model realizations with specific Signature properties can be selected according to the purpose of the model application. Moreover, given that the approach helps to represent and analyze multi-dimensional distributions, it could be used to form the basis of an optimization framework that uses SOMs to characterize the model performance response surface. As such it provides a powerful and useful way to conduct model identification and model uncertainty analyses.

Exploring the multiscale changeability of precipitation using the entropy concept and self-organizing maps

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 655-676
Author(s):  
Kiyoumars Roushangar ◽  
Farhad Alizadeh ◽  
Jan Adamowski ◽  
Seyed Mehdi Saghebian
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Optimum Number ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Self Organizing

Abstract This study utilized a spatio-temporal framework to assess the dispersion and uncertainty of precipitation in Iran. Thirty-one rain gauges with data from 1960 to 2010 were selected in order to apply the entropy concept and study spatio-temporal variability of precipitation. The variability of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation series was studied using the marginal disorder index (MDI). To investigate the intra-annual and decadal distribution of monthly and annual precipitation values, the apportionment disorder index (ADI) and decadal ADI (DADI) were applied to the time series. The continuous wavelet transform was used to decompose the ADI time series into time-frequency domains. The decomposition of the ADI series into different zones helped to identify the dominant modes of variability and the variation of those modes over time. The results revealed the high disorderliness in the amount of precipitation for different temporal scales based on disorder indices. Based on the DI outcome for all rain gauges, a self-organizing map (SOM) was trained to find the optimum number of clusters (seven) of rain gauges. It was observed from the clustering that there was hydrologic similarity in the clusters apart from the geographic neighborhood.

scholarly journals The Spread of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Brazil: An Overview by Kohonen Self-Organizing Map Networks

Medicina ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 235
Author(s):  
Diego Galvan ◽  
Luciane Effting ◽  
Hágata Cremasco ◽  
Carlos Adam Conte-Junior
Keyword(s):  
The Self ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
The North ◽  
Som Clustering ◽  
Unsupervised Neural Networks ◽  
Mining Tools ◽  
Temporal Spread ◽  
Self Organizing

Background and objective: In the current pandemic scenario, data mining tools are fundamental to evaluate the measures adopted to contain the spread of COVID-19. In this study, unsupervised neural networks of the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) type were used to assess the spatial and temporal spread of COVID-19 in Brazil, according to the number of cases and deaths in regions, states, and cities. Materials and methods: The SOM applied in this context does not evaluate which measures applied have helped contain the spread of the disease, but these datasets represent the repercussions of the country’s measures, which were implemented to contain the virus’ spread. Results: This approach demonstrated that the spread of the disease in Brazil does not have a standard behavior, changing according to the region, state, or city. The analyses showed that cities and states in the north and northeast regions of the country were the most affected by the disease, with the highest number of cases and deaths registered per 100,000 inhabitants. Conclusions: The SOM clustering was able to spatially group cities, states, and regions according to their coronavirus cases, with similar behavior. Thus, it is possible to benefit from the use of similar strategies to deal with the virus’ spread in these cities, states, and regions.

scholarly journals Geospatial Analysis of Extreme Weather Events in Nigeria (1985–2015) Using Self-Organizing Maps

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeoluwa Akande ◽  
Ana Cristina Costa ◽  
Jorge Mateu ◽  
Roberto Henriques
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Self Organizing

The explosion of data in the information age has provided an opportunity to explore the possibility of characterizing the climate patterns using data mining techniques. Nigeria has a unique tropical climate with two precipitation regimes: low precipitation in the north leading to aridity and desertification and high precipitation in parts of the southwest and southeast leading to large scale flooding. In this research, four indices have been used to characterize the intensity, frequency, and amount of rainfall over Nigeria. A type of Artificial Neural Network called the self-organizing map has been used to reduce the multiplicity of dimensions and produce four unique zones characterizing extreme precipitation conditions in Nigeria. This approach allowed for the assessment of spatial and temporal patterns in extreme precipitation in the last three decades. Precipitation properties in each cluster are discussed. The cluster closest to the Atlantic has high values of precipitation intensity, frequency, and duration, whereas the cluster closest to the Sahara Desert has low values. A significant increasing trend has been observed in the frequency of rainy days at the center of the northern region of Nigeria.

scholarly journals Dynamic Gesture Recognition System with Gesture Spotting Based on Self-Organizing Maps

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1933
Author(s):  
Hiroomi Hikawa ◽  
Yuta Ichikawa ◽  
Hidetaka Ito ◽  
Yutaka Maeda
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Gesture Recognition ◽  
Weight Vector ◽  
Recognition System ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Time Dynamic ◽  
System Input ◽  
Self Organizing ◽  
Gesture Spotting

In this paper, a real-time dynamic hand gesture recognition system with gesture spotting function is proposed. In the proposed system, input video frames are converted to feature vectors, and they are used to form a posture sequence vector that represents the input gesture. Then, gesture identification and gesture spotting are carried out in the self-organizing map (SOM)-Hebb classifier. The gesture spotting function detects the end of the gesture by using the vector distance between the posture sequence vector and the winner neuron’s weight vector. The proposed gesture recognition method was tested by simulation and real-time gesture recognition experiment. Results revealed that the system could recognize nine types of gesture with an accuracy of 96.6%, and it successfully outputted the recognition result at the end of gesture using the spotting result.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Self Organizing Neural Networks and a Fuzzy Fractal Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8295
Author(s):  
Patricia Melin ◽  
Oscar Castillo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Fractal Approach ◽  
The Times ◽  
Self Organizing

In this article, the evolution in both space and time of the COVID-19 pandemic is studied by utilizing a neural network with a self-organizing nature for the spatial analysis of data, and a fuzzy fractal method for capturing the temporal trends of the time series of the countries considered in this study. Self-organizing neural networks possess the capability to cluster countries in the space domain based on their similar characteristics, with respect to their COVID-19 cases. This form enables the finding of countries that have a similar behavior, and thus can benefit from utilizing the same methods in fighting the virus propagation. In order to validate the approach, publicly available datasets of COVID-19 cases worldwide have been used. In addition, a fuzzy fractal approach is utilized for the temporal analysis of the time series of the countries considered in this study. Then, a hybrid combination, using fuzzy rules, of both the self-organizing maps and the fuzzy fractal approach is proposed for efficient coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) forecasting of the countries. Relevant conclusions have emerged from this study that may be of great help in putting forward the best possible strategies in fighting the virus pandemic. Many of the existing works concerned with COVID-19 look at the problem mostly from a temporal viewpoint, which is of course relevant, but we strongly believe that the combination of both aspects of the problem is relevant for improving the forecasting ability. The main idea of this article is combining neural networks with a self-organizing nature for clustering countries with a high similarity and the fuzzy fractal approach for being able to forecast the times series. Simulation results of COVID-19 data from countries around the world show the ability of the proposed approach to first spatially cluster the countries and then to accurately predict in time the COVID-19 data for different countries with a fuzzy fractal approach.

A New Method for Emulating Self-Organizing Maps for Visualization of Datasets

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (03) ◽  
pp. 1850014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Macario O. Cordel ◽  
Arnulfo P. Azcarraga
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Dimensional Space ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Visualization Tool ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Text Complexity ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Self Organizing

Several time-critical problems relying on large amount of data, e.g., business trends, disaster response and disease outbreak, require cost-effective, timely and accurate data summary and visualization, in order to come up with an efficient and effective decision. Self-organizing map (SOM) is a very effective data clustering and visualization tool as it provides intuitive display of data in lower-dimensional space. However, with [Formula: see text] complexity, SOM becomes inappropriate for large datasets. In this paper, we propose a force-directed visualization method that emulates SOMs capability to display the data clusters with [Formula: see text] complexity. The main idea is to perform a force-directed fine-tuning of the 2D representation of data. To demonstrate the efficiency and the vast potential of the proposed method as a fast visualization tool, the methodology is used to do a 2D-projection of the MNIST handwritten digits dataset.

scholarly journals On building early-warning systems for preventing the deterioration of financial institutions’ performance

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 194-202
Author(s):  
Adrian Costea
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Performance Dimensions ◽  
Som Model ◽  
Self Organizing

Abstract This paper assesses the financial performance of Romania’s non-banking financial institutions (NFIs) using a neural network training algorithm proposed by Kohonen, namely the Self-Organizing Maps algorithm. The algorithm takes the financial dataset and positiones each observation into a self-organizing map (a two-dimensional map) which can be latter used to visualize the trajectories of an individual NFI and explain it based on different performance dimensions, such as capital adequacy, assets’ quality and profitability. Further, we use the map as an early-warning system that would accurately forecast the NFIs future performance (whether they would stay or be eliminated from the NFI’s Special Register three quarters into the future). The results are promising: the model is able to correctly predict NFIs’ performance movements. Finally, we compared the results of our SOM-based model with those obtained by applying a multivariate logit-based model. The SOM model performed worse in discriminating the NFIs’ performance: the performance classes were not clearly defined and the model lacked the interpretability of the results. In the contrary, the multivariate logit coefficients have nice interpretability and an individual default probability estimate is obtained for each new observation. However, we can benefit from the results of both techniques: the visualization capabilities of the SOM model and the interpretability of multivariate logit-based model.

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