scholarly journals Water resources change in response to climate change in Changjiang River basin

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3159-3188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Huang ◽  
W. F. Yang ◽  
L. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Changjiang River ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Doubtlessly, global climate change and its impacts have caught increasing attention from all sectors of the society world-widely. Among all those affected aspects, hydrological circle has been found rather sensitive to climate change. Climate change, either as the result or as the driving-force, has intensified the uneven distribution of water resources in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River basin, China. In turn, drought and flooding problems have been aggravated which has brought new challenges to current hydraulic works such as dike or reservoirs which were designed and constructed based on the historical hydrological characteristics, yet has been significantly changed due to climate change impact. Thus, it is necessary to consider the climate change impacts in basin planning and water resources management, currently and in the future. To serve such purpose, research has been carried out on climate change impact on water resources (and hydrological circle) in Changjiang River. The paper presents the main findings of the research, including main findings from analysis of historical hydro-meteorological data in Changjiang River, and runoff change trends in the future using temperature and precipitation predictions calculated based on different emission scenarios of the 24 Global Climate Modes (GCMs) which has been used in the 4th IPCC assessment report. In this research, two types of macro-scope statistical and hydrological models were developed to simulate runoff prediction. Concerning the change trends obtained from the historical data and the projection from GCMs results, the trend of changes in water resources impacted by climate change was analyzed for Changjiang River. Uncertainty of using the models and data were as well analyzed.

scholarly journals Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pan ◽  
Xu ◽  
Xuan ◽  
Gu ◽  
Bai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Yarlung Zangbo River ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Impact

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important element in the water and energy cycle. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important measurement of ET. Its accuracy has significant influence on agricultural water management, irrigation planning, and hydrological modelling. However, whether current PET models are applicable under climate change or not, is still a question. In this study, five frequently used PET models were chosen, including one combination model (the FAO Penman-Monteith model, FAO-PM), two temperature-based models (the Blaney-Criddle and the Hargreaves models) and two radiation-based models (the Makkink and the Priestley-Taylor models), to estimate their appropriateness in the historical and future periods under climate change impact on the Yarlung Zangbo river basin, China. Bias correction methods were not only applied to the temperature output of Global Climate Models (GCMs), but also for radiation, humidity, and wind speed. It was demonstrated that the results from the Blaney-Criddle and Makkink models provided better agreement with the PET obtained by the FAO-PM model in the historical period. In the future period, monthly PET estimated by all five models show positive trends. The changes of PET under RCP8.5 are much higher than under RCP2.6. The radiation-based models show better appropriateness than the temperature-based models in the future, as the root mean square error (RMSE) value of the former models is almost half of the latter models. The radiation-based models are recommended for use to estimate PET under climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin.

Climate change impact assessment on water resources under RCP scenarios: A case study in Mundaú River Basin, Northeastern Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyne W. L. Andrade ◽  
Suzana M. G. L. Montenegro ◽  
Abelardo A. A. Montenegro ◽  
José R. de S. Lima ◽  
Raghavan Srinivasan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽  
Change Impact

Climate change impact on water resources of the Desna river basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeriy Osypov ◽  
Natalia Osadcha ◽  
Volodimir Osadchyi ◽  
Oleh Speka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

<p>A river basin management plan has to consider climate change impact because global warming influences the water cycle explicitly. For Ukraine, only continental-scale studies or(and) global hydrological models reflect the climate change impact on water resources. Such resolution is insufficient to develop confident adaptation strategies.</p><p>This study aims to assess changes in the river runoff, water flow formation, and soil water of the Desna river basin under future climate. The Desna supply Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, with fresh water. Moreover, soil water capacity across the basin is critical for crop production, the leading sector of the region.</p><p>The framework consists of the process-based ecohydrological SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and eight high-resolution (~12 km) regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX project forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios till the end of the XXI century. The SWAT model was successfully calibrated on water discharge from 12 gauges across the basin, then it was driven by each climate model to achieve a range of possible future scenarios. This approach better represents the hydrological processes and achieves more confident results than in previous studies.</p><p>Seven of eight models project warmer and wetter climate in the near future (2021-2050), and all models project the same in the far future (2071-2100). According to the ensemble mean, the air temperature will increase by 1.1°C under RCP4.5 and 1.2°C under RCP8.5 in the near future, and by 2.2°C under RCP4.5 and 4.2°C under RCP8.5 in the far future. Precipitation surplus will reach 5% (range from -6% to 16%) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the near future, and 8% (from 2% to 17%) under RCP4.5 and 14% (from 3% to 23%) under RCP8.5 in the far future. The discharge will likely increase (mean signal 6-8% in the near future and 10-14% in the far future) mostly due to higher groundwater inflow.</p><p>Intra-annual changes could be very unfavorable for plant growth because of lower soil water content and higher temperature stress during the vegetation period. The models agree about precipitation surplus during the cold period but, in summer, all directions of change are almost equally possible.</p><p>We consider that, among other vulnerabilities of the Desna basin, the water stress for crops will be the main issue because of the high dependence of the economy on crop production. Attention should also be paid to forest fires, eutrophication, and the concentration of organic substances in the stream</p>

scholarly journals Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hagemann ◽  
C. Chen ◽  
D. B. Clark ◽  
S. Folwell ◽  
S. N. Gosling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Available Water ◽  
Hydrological Changes ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

scholarly journals Assessment of climate change impact on water availability in the upper Dong Nai River Basin, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. N. Khoi ◽  
V. T. Nguyen ◽  
T. T. Sam ◽  
N. T. H. Mai ◽  
N. D. Vuong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Study Region ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract On a global scale, climate change is projected to have detrimental impacts on water availability. This situation will become more severe owing to accumulated impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. This study aims to investigate climate change impact on water availability in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models. Future rainfall scenarios were downscaled from five different general circulation models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) tool. Under the climate change impact, annual river discharge in the study region is generally projected to have upward trends in the future, except for the near-future period of 2030s under RCP4.5. In addition, dry-seasonal river discharge is expected to be increased in the future. Considering the baseline condition of water use, there was an annual water shortage of approximately 32.9 × 103 m3, which mostly occurred in the dry season from January to March. Climate change may reduce the water shortage in the study region ranging from 7.0 to 30.1% in the future. Under the combined impacts of climate change and increasing water demand, the water shortage will vary from −18.6 to 6.0% in the future. The results can provide valuable insights to implement appropriate future water resources planning and management in the study region.

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