scholarly journals WATER RESOURCES STATUS AND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BEAS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH WESTERN HIMALAYA

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 1389-1396 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. P. Aggarwal ◽  
P. K. Thakur ◽  
V. Garg ◽  
B. R. Nikam ◽  
A. Chouksey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Vic Model

The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution) from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m<sup>3</sup>/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m<sup>3</sup>/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R<sup>2</sup> of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily precipitation and daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.

scholarly journals Projected Effects of Climate Change on Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqian Wang ◽  
Xiaoli Yang ◽  
Mengru Zhang ◽  
Linqi Zhang ◽  
Xiaohan Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Upper Yangtze River ◽  
The Upper Yangtze River ◽  
Hydrological Regimes

Climate change directly impacts the hydrological cycle via increasing temperatures and seasonal precipitation shifts, which are variable at local scales. The water resources of the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) account for almost 40% and 15% of all water resources used in the Yangtze Basin and China, respectively. Future climate change and the possible responses of surface runoff in this region are urgent issues for China’s water security and sustainable socioeconomic development. This study evaluated the potential impacts of future climate change on the hydrological regimes (high flow (Q5), low flow (Q95), and mean annual runoff (MAR)) of the UYRB using global climate models (GCMs) and a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. We used the eight bias-corrected GCM outputs from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to examine the effects of climate change under two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The direct variance method was adopted to analyze the contributions of precipitation and temperature to future Q5, Q95, and MAR. The results showed that the equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) can considerably reduce biases in the temperature and precipitation fields of CMIP5 models and that the EDCDF captured the extreme values and spatial pattern of the climate fields. Relative to the baseline period (1961–1990), precipitation is projected to slightly increase in the future, while temperature is projected to considerably increase. Furthermore, Q5, Q95, and MAR are projected to decrease. The projected decreases in the median value of Q95 were 21.08% to 24.88% and 16.05% to 26.70% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively; these decreases were larger than those of MAR and Q5. Temperature increases accounted for more than 99% of the projected changes, whereas precipitation had limited projected effects on Q95 and MAR. These results indicate the drought risk over the UYRB will increase considerably in the future.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Blanco-Gómez ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Series

This study assessed how changes in terms of temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in water availability and droughts in an area in a developing country with environmental interest. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water resources of the Guajoyo River Basin in El Salvador. El Salvador is in one of the most vulnerable regions in Latin America to the effects of climate change. The predicted future climate change by two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five general circulation models (GCMs) were considered. A statistical analysis was performed to identify which GCM was better in terms of goodness of fit to variation in means and standard deviations of the historical series. A significant decreasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in annual average temperatures were projected by the middle and the end of the twenty–first century. The results indicated a decreasing trend of the amount of water available and more severe droughts for future climate scenarios with respect to the base period (1975–2004). These findings will provide local water management authorities useful information in the face of climate change to help decision making.

scholarly journals Evaluating Nature-Based Solution for Flood Reduction in Spercheios River Basin under Current and Future Climate Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3885
Author(s):  
Christos Spyrou ◽  
Michael Loupis ◽  
Νikos Charizopoulos ◽  
Ilektra Apostolidou ◽  
Angeliki Mentzafou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Maximum Velocity ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are being deployed around the world in order to address hydrometeorological hazards, including flooding, droughts, landslides and many others. The term refers to techniques inspired, supported and copied from nature, avoiding large constructions and other harmful interventions. In this work the development and evaluation of an NBS applied to the Spercheios river basin in Central Greece is presented. The river is susceptible to heavy rainfall and bank overflow, therefore the intervention selected is a natural water retention measure that aims to moderate the impact of flooding and drought in the area. After the deployment of the NBS, we examine the benefits under current and future climate conditions, using various climate change scenarios. Even though the NBS deployed is small compared to the rest of the river, its presence leads to a decrease in the maximum depth of flooding, maximum velocity and smaller flooded areas. Regarding the subsurface/groundwater storage under current and future climate change and weather conditions, the NBS construction seems to favor long-term groundwater recharge.

scholarly journals Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedram Mahdavi ◽  
Hossein Ghorbanizadeh Kharazi ◽  
Hossein Eslami ◽  
Narges Zohrabi ◽  
Majid Razaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Global warming affected by human activities causes changes in the regime of rivers. Rivers are one of the most vital sources that supply fresh water. Therefore, management, planning, and proper use of rivers will be crucial for future climate change conditions. This study investigated the monitoring of hydrological drought in a future period to examine the impact of climate change on the discharging flow of the Zard River basin in Iran. Zard River is an important supplier of fresh and agricultural water in a vast area of Khuzestan province in Iran. A continuous rainfall-runoff model based on Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) algorithm was applied to simulate the discharge flow under 10 scenarios (obtained from LARS-WG.6 software) of future climate change. Then, the Stream-flow Drought Index (SDI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated for each climate change scenario for the future period (2041–2060). The results of the meteorological drought assessment showed that near normal and moderate droughts had higher proportions among other drought conditions. Moreover, the hydrological drought assessment showed the occurrence of two new droughts (severe and extreme) conditions for the future period (2041–2060) that has never happened in the past (1997–2016).

scholarly journals Climate change effects on the hydrology of the headwaters of the Tagus River: implications for the management of the Tagus-Segura transfer

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Pellicer-Martínez ◽  
José Miguel Martínez-Paz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Resource Exploitation ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Tagus River

Abstract. Currently, climate change is a major concern around the world, especially because of the uncertainty associated with its possible consequences for society. Among these can be highlighted the fluvial alterations in basins whose flows depend on groundwater discharges and snow melt. This is the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River Basin, whose water resources, besides being essential for water uses within this basin, are susceptible to being transferred to the Segura River Basin (both basins are in the Iberian Peninsula). This work studies the possible effects that the latest climate change scenarios may have on this transfer, one of the most important in southern Europe. In the first place, the possible alterations of the water cycle of the donor basin were estimated. To do this, a hydrological model was calibrated. Then, with this model, three climatic scenarios were simulated, one without climate change and two projections under climate change (Representative Concentration Representative 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and RCP 8.5). The results of these three hydrological modelling scenarios were used to determine the possible flows that could be transferred from the Tagus River Basin to the Segura River Basin, by simulating the water resource exploitation system of the Tagus headwaters. These hydrological modelling predict, for the simulated climate change scenarios, important reductions in the snowfalls and snow covers, the recharge of aquifers and the available water resources. So, the headwaters of the Tagus River Basin would be the loss of part of its natural capacity for regulation. These changes in the water cycle for the climate change scenarios used would imply a reduction of around 80 % in the possible flows that could be transferred to the Segura Basin, with respect to a scenario without climate change. The loss of water resources for the Segura River Basin would mean, if no alternative measures were taken, an economic loss of 330–380 million euro per year, due principally to decreased agricultural production.

scholarly journals Uncertainties and nonstationarity in streamflow projections under climate change scenarios and the ensuing adaptation strategies in Subarnarekha river basin, India

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Subarnarekha River ◽  
Subarnarekha River Basin ◽  
Calibration Time

<p>The present study analyses the various uncertainties and nonstationarity in the streamflow projections of Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India using two widely used hydrological climate models: 1) general circulation model (GCM), and 2) forcing climate change scenarios. These two climate models are used to force the ArcSWAT model. Subsequently this model is calibrated using SUFI-2 optimization technique. The downscaled and bias-corrected data from an ensemble of 10 climate projections with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (five each) were used in first model, whereas in second model a total of 63 (7 perturbed precipitations and 9 perturbed temperatures) combinations of hypothetical climate change scenarios were used. The results show very good correlation during monthly calibration time steps and relatively good agreement between the observed and simulated streamflows in daily calibration time steps. The uncertainties are expressed in probabilistic terms using probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) as they provide significant information for decision process in climate change adaptation in the river basin. The uncertainties associated with climate models, return periods and streamflow extremes are also analysed in the present work. The RCP 8.5 scenarios seem more appropriate than RCP 4.5 scenarios in quantifying the uncertainties under nonstationarity assumptions. The mean values of water balance components and their percentage variation for both historic and future periods reveal that the water balance components get affected significantly due to climate change in a future period. Consequently, the streamflows are likely to decline in the river basin. The present study also highlights the comprehensive approaches that are being planned to facilitate adaptation to climate change as well as those that are specific to the water resources management in the study region. The findings in this work are useful for overall well-being of people in the study area.</p>

scholarly journals Modeling the impacts of future climate change on water resources for the Gállego river basin (Spain)

2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Majone ◽  
C. I. Bovolo ◽  
A. Bellin ◽  
S. Blenkinsop ◽  
H. J. Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change
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