scholarly journals EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 823-827 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bhatia ◽  
S. Pasari ◽  
A. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Accuracy Evaluation ◽  
Neural Network Architecture ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Artificial Neural

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Earthquake is one of the most devastating natural calamities that takes thousands of lives and leaves millions more homeless and deprives them of the basic necessities. Earthquake forecasting can minimize the death count and economic loss encountered by the affected region to a great extent. This study presents an earthquake forecasting system by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two different techniques are used with the first focusing on the accuracy evaluation of multilayer perceptron using different inputs and different set of hyper-parameters. The limitation of earthquake data in the first experiment led us to explore another technique, known as nowcasting of earthquakes. The nowcasting technique determines the current progression of earthquake cycle of higher magnitude earthquakes by taking into account the number of smaller earthquake events in the same region. To implement the nowcasting method, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network architecture is considered because such networks are one of the most recent and promising developments in the time-series analysis. Results of different experiments are discussed along with their consequences.</p>

scholarly journals Modeling Slump of Ready Mix Concrete Using Genetically Evolved Artificial Neural Networks

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinay Chandwani ◽  
Vinay Agrawal ◽  
Ravindra Nagar
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Material Behavior ◽  
Trial And Error ◽  
Neural Network Architecture ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Ready Mix Concrete

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been the preferred choice for modeling the complex and nonlinear material behavior where conventional mathematical approaches do not yield the desired accuracy and predictability. Despite their popularity as a universal function approximator and wide range of applications, no specific rules for deciding the architecture of neural networks catering to a specific modeling task have been formulated. The research paper presents a methodology for automated design of neural network architecture, replacing the conventional trial and error technique of finding the optimal neural network. The genetic algorithms (GA) stochastic search has been harnessed for evolving the optimum number of hidden layer neurons, transfer function, learning rate, and momentum coefficient for backpropagation ANN. The methodology has been applied for modeling slump of ready mix concrete based on its design mix constituents, namely, cement, fly ash, sand, coarse aggregates, admixture, and water-binder ratio. Six different statistical performance measures have been used for evaluating the performance of the trained neural networks. The study showed that, in comparison to conventional trial and error technique of deciding the neural network architecture and training parameters, the neural network architecture evolved through GA was of reduced complexity and provided better prediction performance.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Networks, Sequence-to-Sequence LSTMs, and Exogenous Variables as Analytical Tools for NO2 (Air Pollution) Forecasting: A Case Study in the Bay of Algeciras (Spain)

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1770
Author(s):  
Javier González-Enrique ◽  
Juan Jesús Ruiz-Aguilar ◽  
José Antonio Moscoso-López ◽  
Daniel Urda ◽  
Lipika Deka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Analytical Tools

This study aims to produce accurate predictions of the NO2 concentrations at a specific station of a monitoring network located in the Bay of Algeciras (Spain). Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) were used to create the forecasting models. Additionally, a new prediction method was proposed combining LSTMs using a rolling window scheme with a cross-validation procedure for time series (LSTM-CVT). Two different strategies were followed regarding the input variables: using NO2 from the station or employing NO2 and other pollutants data from any station of the network plus meteorological variables. The ANN and LSTM-CVT exogenous models used lagged datasets of different window sizes. Several feature ranking methods were used to select the top lagged variables and include them in the final exogenous datasets. Prediction horizons of t + 1, t + 4 and t + 8 were employed. The exogenous variables inclusion enhanced the model’s performance, especially for t + 4 (ρ ≈ 0.68 to ρ ≈ 0.74) and t + 8 (ρ ≈ 0.59 to ρ ≈ 0.66). The proposed LSTM-CVT method delivered promising results as the best performing models per prediction horizon employed this new methodology. Additionally, per each parameter combination, it obtained lower error values than ANNs in 85% of the cases.

scholarly journals Applicability of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Mechanical and Permeability Properties of Volcanic Scoria-Based Concrete

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aref M. al-Swaidani ◽  
Waed T. Khwies
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Supplementary Cementitious Material ◽  
Natural Pozzolans ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
And Performance ◽  
And Training

Numerous volcanic scoria (VS) cones are found in many places worldwide. Many of them have not yet been investigated, although few of which have been used as a supplementary cementitious material (SCM) for a long time. The use of natural pozzolans as cement replacement could be considered as a common practice in the construction industry due to the related economic, ecologic, and performance benefits. In the current paper, the effect of VS on the properties of concrete was investigated. Twenty-one concrete mixes with three w/b ratios (0.5, 0.6, and 0.7) and seven replacement levels of VS (0%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, and 35%) were produced. The investigated concrete properties were the compressive strength, the water permeability, and the concrete porosity. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used for prediction of the investigated properties. Feed-forward backpropagation neural networks have been used. The ANN models have been established by incorporation of the laboratory experimental data and by properly choosing the network architecture and training processes. This study shows that the use of ANN models provided a more accurate tool to capture the effects of five parameters (cement content, volcanic scoria content, water content, superplasticizer content, and curing time) on the investigated properties. This prediction makes it possible to design VS-based concretes for a desired strength, water impermeability, and porosity at any given age and replacement level. Some correlations between the investigated properties were derived from the analysed data. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis showed that all studied parameters have a strong effect on the investigated properties. The modification of the microstructure of VS-based cement paste has been observed, as well.

scholarly journals Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan dalam Memprediksi Penjualan Air Minum dalam Kemasan dengan Metode Backpropogation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 512
Author(s):  
Hafiz Pratama ◽  
Poningsih Poningsih ◽  
Jalaluddin Jalaluddin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Bottled Water ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Matlab Software ◽  
Artificial Neural

This study predicts the sale of bottled water by applying Artificial Neural Networks. The application uses the Backpropogation Algorithm where the data entered is the number of sales, then Artificial Neural Networks are formed by determining the number of each layer. After the network is formed training is carried out from the data that has been grouped. Experiments are carried out with a network architecture consisting of input units, hidden units, output units and network architecture. Testing is done with Matlab software. Predictions with the best accuracy use 3-10-1 architecture with an accuracy rate of 75% and the lowest level of accuracy using architecture 3-40-1 with an accuracy rate of 33%.

scholarly journals Structural Features for Furan-Derived Fruity and Meaty Aroma Impressions

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1934578X1601101
Author(s):  
Bettina Wailzer ◽  
Johanna Klocker ◽  
Peter Wolschann ◽  
Gerhard Buchbauer
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Classification Rule ◽  
Classification Rate ◽  
Furan Derivatives ◽  
Information Index ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural

Furan derivatives are part of nearly all food aromas. They are mainly formed by thermal degradation of carbohydrates and ascorbic acid and from sugar-amino acid interactions during food processing. Caramel-like, sweet, fruity, nutty, meaty, and burnt odor impressions are associated with this class of compounds. In the presented work, structure-activity relationship (SAR) investigations are performed on a series of furan derivatives in order to find structural subunits, which are responsible for the particular characteristic flavors. Therefore, artificial neural networks are applied on a set of 35 furans with the aroma categories “meaty” or “fruity” to calculate a classification rule and class boundaries for these two aroma impressions. By training a multilayer perceptron network architecture with a backpropagation algorithm, a correct classification rate of 100% is obtained. The neural network is able to distinguish between the two studied groups by using the following significant descriptors as inputs: number of sulfur atoms, Looping Centric Information Index, Folding Degree Index and Petitjean Shape Indices. Finally, the results clearly demonstrate that artificial neural networks are successful tools to investigate non-linear qualitative structure-odor relationships of aroma compounds.

Building Energy Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sankhanil Goswami
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Cooling Load ◽  
Energy Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract Modern buildings account for a significant proportion of global energy consumption worldwide. Therefore, accurate energy use forecast is necessary for energy management and conservation. With the advent of smart sensors, a large amount of accurate energy data is available. Also, with the advancements in data analytics and machine learning, there have been numerous studies on developing data-driven prediction models based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In this work a type of ANN called Large Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is used to predict the energy use and cooling load of an existing building. A university administrative building was chosen for its typical commercial environment. The network was trained with one year of data and was used to predict the energy consumption and cooling load of the following year. The mean absolute testing error for the energy consumption and the cooling load were 0.105 and 0.05. The percentage mean accuracy was found to be 92.8% and 96.1%. The process was applied to several other buildings in the university and similar results were obtained. This indicates the model can successfully predict the energy consumption and cooling load for the buildings studied. The further improvement and application of this technique for optimizing building performance are also explored.

FORECASTING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS: A REVIEW

2004 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. 145-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
WEI HUANG ◽  
K. K. LAI ◽  
Y. NAKAMORI ◽  
SHOUYANG WANG
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Promising Alternative ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables

Forecasting exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention especially because of its difficulty and practical applications. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely used as a promising alternative approach for a forecasting task because of several distinguished features. Research efforts on ANNs for forecasting exchange rates are considerable. In this paper, we attempt to provide a survey of research in this area. Several design factors significantly impact the accuracy of neural network forecasts. These factors include the selection of input variables, preparing data, and network architecture. There is no consensus about the factors. In different cases, various decisions have their own effectiveness. We also describe the integration of ANNs with other methods and report the comparison between performances of ANNs and those of other forecasting methods, and finding mixed results. Finally, the future research directions in this area are discussed.

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