FORECASTING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS: A REVIEW

2004 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. 145-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
WEI HUANG ◽  
K. K. LAI ◽  
Y. NAKAMORI ◽  
SHOUYANG WANG
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Promising Alternative ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables

Forecasting exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention especially because of its difficulty and practical applications. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely used as a promising alternative approach for a forecasting task because of several distinguished features. Research efforts on ANNs for forecasting exchange rates are considerable. In this paper, we attempt to provide a survey of research in this area. Several design factors significantly impact the accuracy of neural network forecasts. These factors include the selection of input variables, preparing data, and network architecture. There is no consensus about the factors. In different cases, various decisions have their own effectiveness. We also describe the integration of ANNs with other methods and report the comparison between performances of ANNs and those of other forecasting methods, and finding mixed results. Finally, the future research directions in this area are discussed.

Artificial Neural Networks

2018 ◽  
pp. 120-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Walczak
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Network Architectures ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
History Of ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Artificial Neural

This chapter examines the history of artificial neural networks research through the present day. The components of artificial neural network architectures and both unsupervised and supervised learning methods are discussed. Although a step-by-step tutorial of how to develop artificial neural networks is not included, additional reading suggestions covering artificial neural network development are provided. The advantages and disadvantages of artificial neural networks for research and real-world applications are presented as well as potential solutions to many of the disadvantages. Future research directions for the field of artificial neural networks are presented.

Artificial Neural Networks

2019 ◽  
pp. 40-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Walczak
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Network Architectures ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
History Of ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Artificial Neural

This chapter examines the history of artificial neural networks research through the present day. The components of artificial neural network architectures and both unsupervised and supervised learning methods are discussed. Although a step-by-step tutorial of how to develop artificial neural networks is not included, additional reading suggestions covering artificial neural network development are provided. The advantages and disadvantages of artificial neural networks for research and real-world applications are presented as well as potential solutions to many of the disadvantages. Future research directions for the field of artificial neural networks are presented.

scholarly journals Review of Nitrogen Compounds Prediction in Water Bodies Using Artificial Neural Networks and Other Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavitra Kumar ◽  
Sai Hin Lai ◽  
Jee Khai Wong ◽  
Nuruol Syuhadaa Mohd ◽  
Md Rowshon Kamal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Nitrogen Concentration ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Quality Water ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables

The prediction of nitrogen not only assists in monitoring the nitrogen concentration in streams but also helps in optimizing the usage of fertilizers in agricultural fields. A precise prediction model guarantees the delivering of better-quality water for human use, as the operations of various water treatment plants depend on the concentration of nitrogen in streams. Considering the stochastic nature and the various hydrological variables upon which nitrogen concentration depends, a predictive model should be efficient enough to account for all the complexities of nature in the prediction of nitrogen concentration. For two decades, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and other models (such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, hybrid model, etc.), used for predicting different complex hydrological parameters, have proved efficient and accurate up to a certain extent. In this review paper, such prediction models, created for predicting nitrogen concentration, are critically analyzed, comparing their accuracy and input variables. Moreover, future research works aiming to predict nitrogen using advanced techniques and more reliable and appropriate input variables are also discussed.

Prediction Modeling of PM-10 in Chiangmai City Moat by Using Artificial Neural Networks

2015 ◽  
Vol 781 ◽  
pp. 628-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rati Wongsathan ◽  
Issaravuth Seedadan ◽  
Metawat Kavilkrue
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Chiang Mai ◽  
Adverse Health Effects ◽  
High Pollution ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Pm 10 ◽  
Respiratory Conditions

A mathematical prediction model has been developed in order to detect particles with a diameter of 10 micrometers or less (PM-10) that are responsible for adverse health effects because of their ability to cause serious respiratory conditions in areas of high pollution such as Chiang Mai City moat area. The prediction model is based on 3 types of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), including Multi-layer perceptron (MLP-NN), Radial basis function (RBF-NN), and hybrid of RBF and Genetic algorithm (RBF-NN-GA). The model uses 8 input variables to predict PM-10, consisting of 4 air pollution substances ( CO, O3, NO2 and SO2) and 4 meteorological variables related PM-10 (wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity). These 3 types of ANN have proved efficient instrument in predicting the PM-10. However, the performance of RBF-NN was superior in comparison with MLP-NN and RBF-NN-GA respectively.

scholarly journals Modelling and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation Using Different Prediction Models

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2332
Author(s):  
Cecilia Martinez-Castillo ◽  
Gonzalo Astray ◽  
Juan Carlos Mejuto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Global Irradiation ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Using Data

Different prediction models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to model the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 1226 kJ/(m2∙day) and 1136 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 2013 kJ/(m2∙day) and 2094 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Networks, Sequence-to-Sequence LSTMs, and Exogenous Variables as Analytical Tools for NO2 (Air Pollution) Forecasting: A Case Study in the Bay of Algeciras (Spain)

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1770
Author(s):  
Javier González-Enrique ◽  
Juan Jesús Ruiz-Aguilar ◽  
José Antonio Moscoso-López ◽  
Daniel Urda ◽  
Lipika Deka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Analytical Tools

This study aims to produce accurate predictions of the NO2 concentrations at a specific station of a monitoring network located in the Bay of Algeciras (Spain). Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) were used to create the forecasting models. Additionally, a new prediction method was proposed combining LSTMs using a rolling window scheme with a cross-validation procedure for time series (LSTM-CVT). Two different strategies were followed regarding the input variables: using NO2 from the station or employing NO2 and other pollutants data from any station of the network plus meteorological variables. The ANN and LSTM-CVT exogenous models used lagged datasets of different window sizes. Several feature ranking methods were used to select the top lagged variables and include them in the final exogenous datasets. Prediction horizons of t + 1, t + 4 and t + 8 were employed. The exogenous variables inclusion enhanced the model’s performance, especially for t + 4 (ρ ≈ 0.68 to ρ ≈ 0.74) and t + 8 (ρ ≈ 0.59 to ρ ≈ 0.66). The proposed LSTM-CVT method delivered promising results as the best performing models per prediction horizon employed this new methodology. Additionally, per each parameter combination, it obtained lower error values than ANNs in 85% of the cases.

scholarly journals Applicability of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Mechanical and Permeability Properties of Volcanic Scoria-Based Concrete

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aref M. al-Swaidani ◽  
Waed T. Khwies
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Supplementary Cementitious Material ◽  
Natural Pozzolans ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
And Performance ◽  
And Training

Numerous volcanic scoria (VS) cones are found in many places worldwide. Many of them have not yet been investigated, although few of which have been used as a supplementary cementitious material (SCM) for a long time. The use of natural pozzolans as cement replacement could be considered as a common practice in the construction industry due to the related economic, ecologic, and performance benefits. In the current paper, the effect of VS on the properties of concrete was investigated. Twenty-one concrete mixes with three w/b ratios (0.5, 0.6, and 0.7) and seven replacement levels of VS (0%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, and 35%) were produced. The investigated concrete properties were the compressive strength, the water permeability, and the concrete porosity. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used for prediction of the investigated properties. Feed-forward backpropagation neural networks have been used. The ANN models have been established by incorporation of the laboratory experimental data and by properly choosing the network architecture and training processes. This study shows that the use of ANN models provided a more accurate tool to capture the effects of five parameters (cement content, volcanic scoria content, water content, superplasticizer content, and curing time) on the investigated properties. This prediction makes it possible to design VS-based concretes for a desired strength, water impermeability, and porosity at any given age and replacement level. Some correlations between the investigated properties were derived from the analysed data. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis showed that all studied parameters have a strong effect on the investigated properties. The modification of the microstructure of VS-based cement paste has been observed, as well.

scholarly journals Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan dalam Memprediksi Penjualan Air Minum dalam Kemasan dengan Metode Backpropogation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 512
Author(s):  
Hafiz Pratama ◽  
Poningsih Poningsih ◽  
Jalaluddin Jalaluddin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Bottled Water ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Matlab Software ◽  
Artificial Neural

This study predicts the sale of bottled water by applying Artificial Neural Networks. The application uses the Backpropogation Algorithm where the data entered is the number of sales, then Artificial Neural Networks are formed by determining the number of each layer. After the network is formed training is carried out from the data that has been grouped. Experiments are carried out with a network architecture consisting of input units, hidden units, output units and network architecture. Testing is done with Matlab software. Predictions with the best accuracy use 3-10-1 architecture with an accuracy rate of 75% and the lowest level of accuracy using architecture 3-40-1 with an accuracy rate of 33%.

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