scholarly journals Comment on "Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events" by Merz et al. (2009)

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-2 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. Rheinberger
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
Relative Damage ◽  
Low Probability

Abstract. This comment is meant to shed some light on the use of so-called "risk aversion functions" in the management of flood risks and other natural hazards as recently proposed in this journal (Merz et al., 2009). In particular, I resume the discussion as to whether the relative damage is a suitable indicator of risk aversion and lay out why the use of this indicator may lead to inefficient decisions upon flood mitigation measures.

scholarly journals Reply to Comment on "Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events" by C. M. Rheinberger (2009)

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Merz ◽  
F. Elmer ◽  
A. H. Thieken
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Relative Damage ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Published Paper

Abstract. In a comment to our recently published paper on the "Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events" (Merz et al., 2009), C. M. Rheinberger questions the use of relative damage as a suitable indicator for risk aversion and the use of the resulting risk aversion functions in judging flood mitigation measures. While the points of criticism are important and should be accounted for, most of these points are considered in our original paper. More importantly, we do not agree with the conclusion that the use of relative damage as indicator for risk aversion is generally not appropriate in decision making about flood mitigation measures.

scholarly journals Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1033-1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Merz ◽  
F. Elmer ◽  
A. H. Thieken
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Expected Annual Damage ◽  
Low Probability

Abstract. The need for an efficient use of limited resources fosters the application of risk-oriented design in flood mitigation. Flood defence measures reduce future damage. Traditionally, this benefit is quantified via the expected annual damage. We analyse the contribution of "high probability/low damage" floods versus the contribution of "low probability/high damage" events to the expected annual damage. For three case studies, i.e. actual flood situations in flood-prone communities in Germany, it is shown that the expected annual damage is dominated by "high probability/low damage" events. Extreme events play a minor role, even though they cause high damage. Using typical values for flood frequency behaviour, flood plain morphology, distribution of assets and vulnerability, it is shown that this also holds for the general case of river floods in Germany. This result is compared to the significance of extreme events in the public perception. "Low probability/high damage" events are more important in the societal view than it is expressed by the expected annual damage. We conclude that the expected annual damage should be used with care since it is not in agreement with societal priorities. Further, risk aversion functions that penalise events with disastrous consequences are introduced in the appraisal of risk mitigation options. It is shown that risk aversion may have substantial implications for decision-making. Different flood mitigation decisions are probable, when risk aversion is taken into account.

scholarly journals A Conflict between Traditional Flood Measures and Maintaining River Ecosystems? A Case Study Based upon the River Lærdal, Norway

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 1884
Author(s):  
Ana Juárez ◽  
Knut Alfredsen ◽  
Morten Stickler ◽  
Ana Adeva-Bustos ◽  
Rodrigo Suárez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
River Channel ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
River Ecosystems ◽  
Hydraulic Models

Floods are among the most damaging of natural disasters, and flood events are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency with the effects of climate change and changes in land use. As a consequence, much focus has been placed on the engineering of structural flood mitigation measures in rivers. Traditional flood protection measures, such as levees and dredging of the river channel, threaten floodplains and river ecosystems, but during the last decade, sustainable reconciliation of freshwater ecosystems has increased. However, we still find many areas where these traditional measures are proposed, and it is challenging to find tools for evaluation of different measures and quantification of the possible impacts. In this paper, we focus on the river Lærdal in Norway to (i) present the dilemma between traditional flood measures and maintaining river ecosystems and (ii) quantify the efficiency and impact of different solutions based on 2D hydraulic models, remote sensing data, economics, and landscape metrics. Our results show that flood measures may be in serious conflict with environmental protection and legislation to preserve biodiversity and key nature types.

scholarly journals Municipal Employee's Awareness of Flood Risks and Flood Mitigation Measures

2004 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 335-340
Author(s):  
Kiyomine TERUMOTO ◽  
Teruko SATO ◽  
Teniki FUKUZONO ◽  
Saburo IKEDA
Keyword(s):  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Flood Risks

scholarly journals Flood Mitigation Techniques—A New Perspective for the Case Study of Adayar Watershed

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vidyapriya V. ◽  
Ramalingam M.
Keyword(s):  
Drainage System ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Storm Water ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Adjacent Area ◽  
Drainage Network ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Water Drainage ◽  
Impervious Area

Mostly populous city like Chennai is subjected to frequent flooding due to its complex nature of natural and man-made activities. From the analysis of the past records of flood events of 1943,1976,1985,2005 and 2008,it has been observed Adayar watershed is subjected to cataclysmic flooding in low-lying areas of the city and its suburbs because of inoperativeness of the local drainage system, rainfall associated with cyclonic activity, topography of the terrain, encroachments along the floodplain, hugh upstream flow discharge into the river and the highly impervious area which blocked the runoff to flow into the storm water drainage. After looking into these problems of flooding, a study have been conducted on Adayar watershed to develop a 2D hydrodynamic model for the two scenarios of existing condition of storm water drainage network and revised conditions of storm water drainage network using high resolution Lidar DEM to assess the volume of runoff with respect to time and duration on flood peaks for the two flood events of 2005 and 2015.Secondly to develop a 1D flood model to predict the river stages during peak floods using MIKE 11 for the Adayar watershed. Thirdly to integrate the coupled 1D and 2D model using MIKEFLOOD for assessing the extent of inundation in the floodplain area of Adayar river. Finally results from the integrated model have been validated and the results found satisfactory. As a part of mitigation measures, two flood mitigation measures have been adopted. One measure such as revised storm water drainage system which enhances the flood carrying capacity of the drains and results in less inundated area which solves the problem of urban flooding and second measure such as regrading the river bed which reduces the floodplain inundation around the adjacent area of the river. After adopting these measures, the river is free to flow into the sea without any blockades.

Evaluation of adapted hydrological flood routing approaches as a cost-efficient contribution for the assessment of nature-based flood mitigation measures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Merk ◽  
Michael Neumayer ◽  
Sonja Teschemacher ◽  
Markus Disse
Keyword(s):  
River Restoration ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Hydrodynamic Models ◽  
Cost Efficient

<p>Nature-based retention measures are an essential part of a sustainable and integrated flood protection strategy and can contribute to a holistic flood mitigation approach. Thereby river restoration measures such as channel widening, or flow path extension to increase the channel meandering represent successfully used components. Coupled with flood plain measures, retarding and retention effects of flood events are possible. These effects are commonly computed applying two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling approaches. However, these developments rely on high spatial and temporal resolutions which are generally characterized by a high computational demand and are hence time and cost expensive. Thus, the evaluation and derivation of flood routing parameters to reproduce the resulting hydrodynamical processes in hydrological models can provide an effective and fast computation of river restoration scenarios.</p><p> </p><p>The objective in the present study is the derivation and application of flood routing parameters which can account for the effects of river restoration and flood plain measures in hydrological models. Further, this study aims to determine if the catchment and scale specific outcomes and parameter sets are also applicable to a broader range of catchments.</p><p>For this purpose, commonly applied flood routing approaches and the associated parameters used in hydrological models (e.g. the kinematic wave approach in the WaSiM model) are investigated for catchments of different scales in Bavaria (Germany) and for flood events of varying characteristics (e.g. return period, flood volume). To determine the effects of channel restoration and flood plain measures, two-dimensional hydrodynamic models (HYDRO_AS-2D) are set up to simulate the current state as well as restoration scenarios. Based on the simulation results of the hydrodynamic models, the parameters of the flood routing approaches are calibrated to match the catchment specific restoration effects for a first set of river sections. Catchment and scale dependent parameter sets (dominating valley type, flood plain slopes) are then derived to reproduce the specific river restoration. First results of the calibration of the parameter sets show a satisfying fit of the hydrological model to different restoration scenarios of the hydrodynamic model. For the validation of the derived parameter sets of the flood routing methods in the hydrological model additional river sections of the hydrodynamic models are subsequently investigated.</p><p>The implementation of the new flood routing parametrization of the hydrological models is finally examined as an alternative resource efficient way of calculating the effects of river restoration scenarios. Moreover, the applicability of the outcomes as a cost-efficient alternative compared to hydrodynamic models in land use planning and risk assessment is assessed and discussed within the frame of river restorations as flood mitigation measures.</p>

scholarly journals Long-term development and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures: an analysis for the German part of the river Rhine

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3507-3518 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Bubeck ◽  
W. J. W. Botzen ◽  
H. Kreibich ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Private Households ◽  
Integrated Flood Risk Management ◽  
German Part ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Flood mitigation measures implemented by private households have become an important component of contemporary integrated flood risk management in Germany and many other countries. Despite the growing responsibility of private households to contribute to flood damage reduction by means of private flood mitigation measures, knowledge on the long-term development of such measures, which indicates changes in vulnerability over time, and their effectiveness, is still scarce. To gain further insights into the long-term development, current implementation level and effectiveness of private flood mitigation measures, empirical data from 752 flood-prone households along the German part of the Rhine are presented. It is found that four types of flood mitigation measures developed gradually over time among flood-prone households, with severe floods being important triggers for an accelerated implementation. At present, still a large share of respondents has not implemented a single flood mitigation measure, despite the high exposure of the surveyed households to floods. The records of household's flood damage to contents and structure during two consecutive flood events with similar hazard characteristics in 1993 and 1995 show that an improved preparedness of the population led to substantially reduced damage during the latter event. Regarding the efficiency of contemporary integrated flood risk management, it is concluded that additional policies are required in order to further increase the level of preparedness of the flood-prone population. This especially concerns households in areas that are less frequently affected by flood events.

Costs and Benefits of the Transition to Low-carbon Economyin Russia: Perspectives up to 2050

2014 ◽  
pp. 70-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bashmakov ◽  
A. Myshak
Keyword(s):  
Emission Reduction ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Research Groups ◽  
Emissions Mitigation ◽  
Very High

This paper investigates costs and benefits associated with low-carbon economic development pathways realization to the mid XXI century. 30 scenarios covering practically all “visions of the future” were developed by several research groups based on scenario assumptions agreed upon in advance. It is shown that with a very high probability Russian energy-related GHG emissions will reach the peak before 2050, which will be at least 11% below the 1990 emission level. The height of the peak depends on portfolio of GHG emissions mitigation measures. Efforts to keep 2050 GHG emissions 25-30% below the 1990 level bring no GDP losses. GDP impact of deep GHG emission reduction - by 50% of the 1990 level - varies from plus 4% to minus 9%. Finally, very deep GHG emission reduction - by 80% - may bring GDP losses of over 10%.

Spatial suppression due to statistical regularities is driven by distractor suppression not by target activation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Failing ◽  
Benchi Wang ◽  
Jan Theeuwes
Keyword(s):  
High Probability ◽  
Target Location ◽  
Target Selection ◽  
Visual Space ◽  
Alternative Interpretation ◽  
Distractor Location ◽  
Target Presentation ◽  
Statistical Regularities ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Presentation Experiment

Where and what we attend to is not only determined by what we are currently looking for but also by what we have encountered in the past. Recent studies suggest that biasing the probability by which distractors appear at locations in visual space may lead to attentional suppression of high probability distractor locations which effectively reduces capture by a distractor but also impairs target selection at this location. However, in many of these studies introducing a high probability distractor location was tantamount to increasing the probability of the target appearing in any of the other locations (i.e. the low probability distractor locations). Here, we investigate an alternative interpretation of previous findings according to which attentional selection at high probability distractor locations is not suppressed. Instead, selection at low probability distractor locations is facilitated. In two visual search tasks, we found no evidence for this hypothesis: neither when there was only a bias in target presentation but no bias in distractor presentation (Experiment 1), nor when there was only a bias in distractor presentation but no bias in target presentation (Experiment 2). We conclude that recurrent presentation of a distractor in a specific location leads to attentional suppression of that location through a mechanism that is unaffected by any regularities regarding the target location.

Validation of a machine learned model to predict the diagnosis of myocardial infarction

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Doudesis ◽  
J Yang ◽  
A Tsanas ◽  
C Stables ◽  
A Shah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Acute Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Cardiovascular Death ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
One Year

Abstract Introduction The myocardial-ischemic-injury-index (MI3) is a promising machine learned algorithm that predicts the likelihood of myocardial infarction in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Whether this algorithm performs well in unselected patients or predicts recurrent events is unknown. Methods In an observational analysis from a multi-centre randomised trial, we included all patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome and serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurements without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Using gradient boosting, MI3 incorporates age, sex, and two troponin measurements to compute a value (0–100) reflecting an individual's likelihood of myocardial infarction, and estimates the negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV). Model performance for an index diagnosis of myocardial infarction, and for subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at one year was determined using previously defined low- and high-probability thresholds (1.6 and 49.7, respectively). Results In total 20,761 of 48,282 (43%) patients (64±16 years, 46% women) were eligible of whom 3,278 (15.8%) had myocardial infarction. MI3 was well discriminated with an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.949 (95% confidence interval 0.946–0.952) identifying 12,983 (62.5%) patients as low-probability (sensitivity 99.3% [99.0–99.6%], NPV 99.8% [99.8–99.9%]), and 2,961 (14.3%) as high-probability (specificity 95.0% [94.7–95.3%], PPV 70.4% [69–71.9%]). At one year, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death occurred more often in high-probability compared to low-probability patients (17.6% [520/2,961] versus 1.5% [197/12,983], P<0.001). Conclusions In unselected consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, the MI3 algorithm accurately estimates the likelihood of myocardial infarction and predicts probability of subsequent adverse cardiovascular events. Performance of MI3 at example thresholds Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council

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