scholarly journals Changing seasonality of moderate and extreme precipitation events in the Alps

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Brönnimann ◽  
Jan Rajczak ◽  
Erich Fischer ◽  
Christoph C. Raible ◽  
Marco Rohrer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The intensity of precipitation events is expected to increase in the future. The rate of increase depends on the strength or rarity of the events; very strong and rare events tend to follow the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, whereas weaker events or precipitation averages do not. An often overlooked aspect is seasonal occurrence of such events, which might change in the future. To address the impact of seasonality, we use a large ensemble of regional and global climate model simulations, comprising tens of thousands of model years of daily temperature and precipitation for the past, present and future. In order to make the data comparable, they are quantile-mapped to observation-based time series representative of the Aare catchment in Switzerland. Model simulations show no increase in annual maximum 1-day precipitation events (Rx1day) over the last 400 yrs and an increase of 10–20 % until the end of the century for a strong (RCP8.5) forcing scenario. This fits with a Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of temperature at the event day, which increases less than annual mean temperature. An important reason for this is a shift in seasonality. Rx1day events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early fall, when it is cooler. The seasonality shift is shown to be related to summer drying. Models with decreasing annual mean or summer mean precipitation show this behavior more strongly. The highest Rx1day per decade, in contrast, shows no change in seasonality in the future. This discrepancy implies that decadal-scale extremes are thermodynamically limited; conditions conducive to strong events still occur during hottest time of the year on a decadal scale. In contrast, Rx1day events are also limited by other factors. Conducive conditions are not reached every summer in the present, and even less so in the future. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events and assessing their socio-economic impacts.

scholarly journals Changing seasonality of moderate and extreme precipitation events in the Alps

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 2047-2056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Brönnimann ◽  
Jan Rajczak ◽  
Erich M. Fischer ◽  
Christoph C. Raible ◽  
Marco Rohrer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The intensity of precipitation events is expected to increase in the future. The rate of increase depends on the strength or rarity of the events; very strong and rare events tend to follow the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, whereas weaker events or precipitation averages increase at a smaller rate than expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. An often overlooked aspect is seasonal occurrence of such events, which might change in the future. To address the impact of seasonality, we use a large ensemble of regional and global climate model simulations, comprising tens of thousands of model years of daily temperature and precipitation for the past, present, and future. In order to make the data comparable, they are quantile mapped to observation-based time series representative of the Aare catchment in Switzerland. Model simulations show no increase in annual maximum 1-day precipitation events (Rx1day) over the last 400 years and an increase of 10 %–20 % until the end of the century for a strong (RCP8.5) forcing scenario. This fits with a Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of temperature at the event day, which increases less than annual mean temperature. An important reason for this is a shift in seasonality. Rx1day events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn, when it is cooler. The seasonality shift is shown to be related to summer drying. Models with decreasing annual mean or summer mean precipitation show this behaviour more strongly. The highest Rx1day per decade, in contrast, shows no change in seasonality in the future. This discrepancy implies that decadal-scale extremes are thermodynamically limited; conditions conducive to strong events still occur during the hottest time of the year on a decadal scale. In contrast, Rx1day events are also limited by other factors. Conducive conditions are not reached every summer in the present, and even less so in the future. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events and assessing their socio-economic impacts.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes over Shaanxi Province, China, in the 21st Century

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Ling Li ◽  
Ziniu Xiao ◽  
Shuxiang Luo ◽  
Aili Yang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming, will have a pernicious influence on society. It would be desirable to understand how they will evolve in the future as global warming becomes more serious with time. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the changing characteristics of the precipitation extremes in the 21st century over Shaanxi Province, a climate-sensitive and environmentally fragile area located in the east of northwestern China, based on a consecutive simulation of the 21st century conducted by the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES at high resolution under middle emission scenario of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Basic validation of the model performance was carried out, and six extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were used to assess the intensity and frequency of the extreme precipitation events over Shaanxi Province. The results show that RegCM4 reproduces the observed characteristics of extreme precipitation events over Shaanxi Province well. Overall for the domain, the EPIs excluding consecutive dry days (CDD) have a growing tendency during 1980–2098 although they exhibit spatial variability over Shaanxi Province. Some areas in the arid northern Shaanxi may have more heavy rainfalls by the middle of the 21st century but less wet extreme events by the end of the 21st century. And the humid central and southern regions would suffer more precipitation-related natural hazards in the future.

scholarly journals Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shan Zou ◽  
Jilili Abuduwaili ◽  
Weili Duan ◽  
Jianli Ding ◽  
Philippe De Maeyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractExtreme precipitation events exhibit an increasing trend for both the frequency and magnitude on global and regional scales and it has already proven the impact of man-made global warming on the extreme precipitation amplification. Based on the observed datasets and global climate model (GCM) output, this study has evaluated the impact from anthropogenic forcing on the trend and temporal non-uniformity (i.e. increase in unevenness or disparity) of the precipitation amounts (PRCPTOT), extremes (R95p and RX5day) and intensity (SDII) in Central Asia (CA) from 1961 to 2005. Results indicate that radiative forcing changes, mainly driven by human activities, have significantly augmented the extreme precipitation indices in CA. The median trend with the influence of anthropogenic activities for the PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p and RX5day amounted to 2.19 mm/decade, 0.019 mm/decade, 1.39 mm/decade and 0.21 mm/decade during the study period, respectively. A statistically insignificant decrease in non-uniformity was noticed for the PRCPTOT, SDII and RX5day in Central CA (CCA) and Western CA (WCA), while Eastern CA (ECA) was the only region with a statistically significant increase in non-uniformity of the PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p and RX5day by 4.22%, 3.98%, 3.73% and 3.97%, respectively from 1961 to 2005 due to anthropogenic forcing. These results reflect the difference in various regions regarding the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in CA, which might help to fully understand the role of anthropogenic forcing in the changes of the precipitation extremes in CA and contribute to the development of water resource management strategies.

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

scholarly journals Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 4517-4530 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. van Pelt ◽  
J. J. Beersma ◽  
T. A. Buishand ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
P. Kabat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995) precipitation time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.

scholarly journals Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Jeon ◽  
S. Byna ◽  
J. Gu ◽  
W. D. Collins ◽  
M. F. Wehner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Concentrations ◽  
Climate Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.

scholarly journals Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 6533-6568 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. van Pelt ◽  
J. J. Beersma ◽  
T. A. Buishand ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
P. Kabat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available Global Climate Model (GCM) or Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better picture of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias corrected RCM simulations of the 1971–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995) precipitation/temperature time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. Time series resampling was applied to extend 35-yr GCM and RCM time-slices to 3000-yr series to estimate extreme precipitation with return periods up to 1000 yr. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also resulted in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.

scholarly journals ENSO and Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events over the Contiguous United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Yehui Chang ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
Philip J. Pegion
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
The West ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In this study the authors examine the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation events over the continental United States using 49 winters (1949/50–1997/98) of daily precipitation observations and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. The results are compared with those from an ensemble of nine atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed SST for the same time period. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the daily precipitation fields together with compositing techniques are used to identify and characterize the weather systems that dominate the winter precipitation variability. The time series of the principal components (PCs) associated with the leading EOFs are analyzed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions to quantify the impact of ENSO on the intensity of extreme precipitation events. The six leading EOFs of the observations are associated with major winter storm systems and account for more than 50% of the daily precipitation variability along the West Coast and over much of the eastern part of the country. Two of the leading EOFs (designated GC for Gulf Coast and EC for East Coast) together represent cyclones that develop in the Gulf of Mexico and occasionally move and/or redevelop along the East Coast producing large amounts of precipitation over much of the southern and eastern United States. Three of the leading EOFs represent storms that hit different sections of the West Coast (designated SW for Southwest coast, WC for the central West Coast, and NW for northwest coast), while another represents storms that affect the Midwest (designated by MW). The winter maxima of several of the leading PCs are significantly impacted by ENSO such that extreme GC, EC, and SW storms that occur on average only once every 20 years (20-yr storms) would occur on average in half that time under sustained El Niño conditions. In contrast, under La Niña conditions, 20-yr GC and EC storms would occur on average about once in 30 years, while there is little impact of La Niña on the intensity of the SW storms. The leading EOFs from the model simulations and their connections to ENSO are for the most part quite realistic. The model, in particular, does very well in simulating the impact of ENSO on the intensity of EC and GC storms. The main model discrepancies are the lack of SW storms and an overall underestimate of the daily precipitation variance.

Applying a storyline approach to explore the impact of future Atmospheric River induced floods in western Norway 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trine Jahr Hegdahl ◽  
Kolbjørn Engeland ◽  
Malte Müller ◽  
Jana Sillman
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Western Norway ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climate Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Atmospheric rivers (AR) are responsible for the most extreme precipitation events causing devastating landslides and floods in western Norway. In this study an event-based storyline approach is used to compare the flood impact of extreme AR events in a warmer climate to those of the current climate.  The four most extreme precipitation events were selected from 30 years of present and future climate simulations from the high-resolution global climate model, the EC-Earth model. For each of the four events, EC-Earth was rerun creating 10 perturbed realizations. A regional convective permitting weather prediction model, AROME-MetCoOp, was used to further downscale the events, and thereafter the operational Norwegian flood-forecasting model was used to estimate the flood levels for 37 catchments in western Norway. The magnitude and the spatial impact were analyzed, and different hydrological initial conditions, which affect the total flooding, were analyzed.</p><p>The results show that more catchments were affected with larger floods in the future climate events compared to the current climate events. In addition, the combination of multiple realizations of meteorological forcing and different hydrological initial conditions, for example soil saturation and snow storage, were important for the estimation of the maximum flood level. The meteorological forcing had the highest overall effect on flood magnitude; however, varying and depending on event and catchment. Finally, operational flood warning levels were used to visualize the difference between future and current climate flood events. Applying a setup similar to the one used operationally and relating the future events to known current events associated with ARs, enables a common reference and ease communication with end-users and decision makers.</p>

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