scholarly journals Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sílvia A. Nunes ◽  
Carlos C. DaCamara ◽  
Kamil F. Turkman ◽  
Teresa J. Calado ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Vegetation Stress ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

Abstract. Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events that have serious impacts at the socio-economic and environmental levels and dramatic consequences associated with the loss of lives and the destruction of the landscape. Accordingly, seasonal forecasts are required to assist fire managers, thus contributing to alter the historically-based purely reactive response. In this context, we present and discuss a statistical model to estimate the probability that the total burned area during summer will exceed a given threshold. The statistical model uses meteorological information that rates the accumulation of thermal and vegetation stress. Outlooks for the 39-year study period (1980–2018) show that, when the statistical model is applied from May 26 to June 30, out of the six severe years, only one year is not anticipated as potentially severe and, out of the six weak years, only one is not anticipated as potentially weak. The availability of outlooks of wildfire potential with an anticipation of up to one month before the starting of the fire season, such as the one proposed here, may serve to provide clear directions for the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.

scholarly journals Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 1459-1470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sílvia A. Nunes ◽  
Carlos C. DaCamara ◽  
Kamil F. Turkman ◽  
Teresa J. Calado ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Vegetation Stress ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

Abstract. Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events that have serious impacts at the socio-economic and environmental levels and dramatic consequences associated with the loss of lives and the destruction of the landscape. Accordingly, seasonal forecasts are required to assist fire managers, thus contributing to alter the historically based purely reactive response. In this context, we present and discuss a statistical model to estimate the probability that the total burned area during summer will exceed a given threshold. The statistical model uses meteorological information that rates the accumulation of thermal and vegetation stress. Outlooks for the 39-year study period (1980–2018) show that, when the statistical model is applied from 26 May to 30 June, out of the six severe years, only one year is not anticipated as potentially severe and, out of the six weak years, only one is not anticipated as potentially weak. The availability of outlooks of wildfire potential with an anticipation of up to 1 month before the starting of the fire season, such as the one proposed here, may serve to provide clear directions for the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.

scholarly journals Satellite hydrology observations as operational indicators of forecasted fire danger across the contiguous United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 1097-1106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Farahmand ◽  
E. Natasha Stavros ◽  
John T. Reager ◽  
Ali Behrangi ◽  
James T. Randerson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ◽  
Time Correlations ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Gravity Recovery

Abstract. Traditional methods for assessing fire danger often depend on meteorological forecasts, which have reduced reliability after ∼10 d. Recent studies have demonstrated long lead-time correlations between pre-fire-season hydrological variables such as soil moisture and later fire occurrence or area burned, yet the potential value of these relationships for operational forecasting has not been studied. Here, we use soil moisture data refined by remote sensing observations of terrestrial water storage from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and vapor pressure deficit from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission to generate monthly predictions of fire danger at scales commensurate with regional management. We test the viability of predictors within nine US geographic area coordination centers (GACCs) using regression models specific to each GACC. Results show that the model framework improves interannual wildfire-burned-area prediction relative to climatology for all GACCs. This demonstrates the importance of hydrological information to extend operational forecast ability into the months preceding wildfire activity.

scholarly journals Satellite Hydrology Observations as Operational Indicators of Forecasted Fire Danger across the Contiguous United States

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Farahmand ◽  
E. Natasha Stavros ◽  
John T. Reager ◽  
Ali Behrangi ◽  
James Randerson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Time Correlations ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Grace Mission

Abstract. Traditional methods for assessing fire danger often depend on meteorological forecasts, which have reduced reliability after ~ 10 days. Recent studies have demonstrated long lead-time correlations between pre-fire-season hydrological variables such as soil moisture and later fire occurrence or area burned, yet no potential value of these relationships for operational forecasting have not been studied. Here, we use soil moisture data refined by remote sensing observations of terrestrial water storage from NASA’s GRACE mission and vapor pressure deficit from NASA’s AIRS mission to generate monthly predictions of fire danger at scales commensurate with regional management. We test the viability of predictors within nine US Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs) using regression models specific to each GACC. Results show that the model framework improves interannual wildfire burned area prediction relative to climatology for all GACCs. This demonstrates the importance of hydrological information to extend operational forecast ability into the months preceding wildfire activity.

Mapping and comparing wildfire progressions using freely available, multi-source satellite data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morgan Crowley ◽  
Jeffrey Cardille ◽  
Joanne White ◽  
Michael Wulder
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Optical Data ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Area Classification

<p>Extreme wildfire seasons are becoming the new normal in Canada, and satellite imagery is a useful way to map these fires as they grow across the vast, fire-prone regions of the country. However, single-date and single-sourced imagery of active fires often contain clouds, flares, smoke, and haze that can create challenges for monitoring  burned areas over time. To address this gap, we applied rapid and scalable methods for synthesizing information on fire progressions using freely available satellite imagery, novel image fusion algorithms, and cloud-based data processing platforms. We identified images from Landsat-7, -8, Sentinel-2, and MODIS (MCD64A1 burned-area dataset) for the 2017 and 2018 British Columbia fire seasons that intersect the buffered extents of Canadian wildfires as determined by Canadian National Fire Database. We classified each raw image individually using a standard burned-area classification protocol related to each data source. We used the Bayesian Updating of Land Cover Classifications (BULC) algorithm to create coherent time series from the single-date classifications of optical data sources in Google Earth Engine. From the BULC classification stack, we calculated within-year, intra-annual fire progression metrics to compare satellite-derived fire behaviours between the 2017 and 2018 fire seasons, both at the whole fire season and the individual fire level. End-of-season burned-area estimates corresponded with estimates derived from the National Burned Area Composite (NBAC) product that is generated retrospectively from best-available fire mapping approaches. Additionally, we compared the BULC time series with fire progression estimates from MCD64A1 burned-area dataset to evaluate the influence of spatial resolution on burned-area estimates. Information outputs from this research enable cross-validation of fire behaviour models for different fire seasons and comparison of fire progression metrics between historic fires and fire seasons in Canada. The approach presented can be used to provide rapid and reliable information about active wildland fire progressions to better understand fire growth and associated drivers.</p>

Resources: Internet Resources for the Independent Medical Evaluator – 2007

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 4-7
Author(s):  
Christopher R. Brigham ◽  
Jenny Walker
Keyword(s):  
Head Trauma ◽  
Clonic Seizure ◽  
Acute Subdural Hematoma ◽  
Orbital Fracture ◽  
Orbital Wall ◽  
First Occurrence ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
Neurological Injuries ◽  
Medial Orbital Wall

Abstract Rating patients with head trauma and multiple neurological injuries can be challenging. The AMA Guides to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment (AMA Guides), Fifth Edition, Section 13.2, Criteria for Rating Impairment Due to Central Nervous System Disorders, outlines the process to rate impairment due to head trauma. This article summarizes the case of a 57-year-old male security guard who presents with headache, decreased sensation on the left cheek, loss of sense of smell, and problems with memory, among other symptoms. One year ago the patient was assaulted while on the job: his Glasgow Coma Score was 14; he had left periorbital ecchymosis and a 2.5 cm laceration over the left eyelid; a small right temporoparietal acute subdural hematoma; left inferior and medial orbital wall fractures; and, four hours after admission to the hospital, he experienced a generalized tonic-clonic seizure. This patient's impairment must include the following components: single seizure, orbital fracture, infraorbital neuropathy, anosmia, headache, and memory complaints. The article shows how the ratable impairments are combined using the Combining Impairment Ratings section. Because this patient has not experienced any seizures since the first occurrence, according to the AMA Guides he is not experiencing the “episodic neurological impairments” required for disability. Complex cases such as the one presented here highlight the need to use the criteria and estimates that are located in several sections of the AMA Guides.

Catheter-directed foam sclerotherapy treatment of saphenous vein incompetence

VASA ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asciutto ◽  
Lindblad
Keyword(s):  
Saphenous Vein ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foam Sclerotherapy ◽  
Results Of Treatment ◽  
Ulcer Healing Rate ◽  
Complete Obliteration ◽  
Ceap Classification ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

Background: The aim of this study is to report the short-term results of catheter-directed foam sclerotherapy (CDFS) in the treatment of axial saphenous vein incompetence. Patients and methods: Data of all patients undergoing CDFS for symptomatic primary incompetence of the great or small saphenous vein were prospectively collected. Treatment results in terms of occlusion rate and patients’ grade of satisfaction were analysed. All successfully treated patients underwent clinical and duplex follow-up examinations one year postoperatively. Results: Between September 2006 and September 2010, 357 limbs (337 patients) were treated with CDFS at our institution. Based on the CEAP classification, 64 were allocated to clinical class C3 , 128 to class C4, 102 to class C5 and 63 to class C6. Of the 188 patients who completed the one year follow up examination, 67 % had a complete and 14 % a near complete obliteration of the treated vessel. An ulcer-healing rate of 54 % was detected. 92 % of the patients were satisfied with the results of treatment. We registered six cases of thrombophlebitis and two cases of venous thromboembolism, all requiring treatment. Conclusions: The short-term results of CDFS in patients with axial vein incompetence are acceptable in terms of occlusion and complications rates.

Regional household poverty and mobility analysis – a transition probability approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 286-302
Author(s):  
Damian Mowczan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Transition Probability ◽  
General Level ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
Equivalent Unit ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Probability Matrices ◽  
General Mobility ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

The main objective of this paper was to estimate and analyse transition-probability matrices for all 16 of Poland’s NUTS-2 level regions (voivodeship level). The analysis is conducted in terms of the transitions among six expenditure classes (per capita and per equivalent unit), focusing on poverty classes. The period of analysis was two years: 2015 and 2016. The basic aim was to identify both those regions in which the probability of staying in poverty was the highest and the general level of mobility among expenditure classes. The study uses a two-year panel sub-sample of unidentified unit data from the Central Statistical Office (CSO), specifically the data concerning household budget surveys. To account for differences in household size and demographic structure, the study used expenditures per capita and expenditures per equivalent unit simultaneously. To estimate the elements of the transition matrices, a classic maximum-likelihood estimator was used. The analysis used Shorrocks’ and Bartholomew’s mobility indices to assess the general mobility level and the Gini index to assess the inequality level. The results show that the one-year probability of staying in the same poverty class varies among regions and is lower for expenditures per equivalent units. The highest probabilities were identified in Podkarpackie (expenditures per capita) and Opolskie (expenditures per equivalent unit), and the lowest probabilities in Kujawsko-Pomorskie (expenditures per capita) and Małopolskie (expenditures per equivalent unit). The highest level of general mobility was noted in Małopolskie, for both categories of expenditures.

From Scarcity to Abundance: Achieving Quality-Assured Mass Higher Education

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter P. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Knowledge Economy ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Secondary System ◽  
Mass Higher Education ◽  
Post Secondary ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

The United States is in a bind. On the one hand, we need millions of additional citizens with at least one year of successful post-secondary experience to adapt to the knowledge economy. Both the Gates and Lumina Foundations, and our President, have championed this goal in different ways. On the other hand, we have a post-secondary system that is trapped between rising costs and stagnant effectiveness, seemingly unable to respond effectively to this challenge. This paper analyzes several aspects of this problem, describes changes in the society that create the basis for solutions, and offers several examples from Kaplan University of emerging practice that suggests what good practice might look like in a world where quality-assured mass higher education is the norm.

ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN INDICATORS CHARACTERIZING MEDICAL CARE FOR CHILDREN WITH CANCER IN SAINT-PETERSBURG AND IN THE LENINGRAD REGION IN 2013-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-82
Author(s):  
Maksim Rykov ◽  
Ivan Turabov ◽  
Yuriy Punanov ◽  
Svetlana Safonova
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Medical Care ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Leningrad Region ◽  
Children With Cancer ◽  
Health Committee ◽  
The Government ◽  
Delivery Of Medical Care ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

Background: St. Petersburg is a city of federal importance with a large number of primary patients, identified annually. Objective: analysis of the main indicators characterizing medical care for children with cancer in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. Methods: The operative reports for 2013-2017 of the Health Committee of the Government of St. Petersburg and the Health Committee of the Leningrad Region were analyzed. Results. In 2013-2017 in the Russian Federation, 18 090 primary patients were identified, 927 (5.1%) of them in the analyzed subjects: in St. Petersburg - 697 (75,2%), in the Leningrad Region - 230 (24,8%). For 5 years, the number of primary patients increased in St. Petersburg - by 36%, in the Leningrad Region - by 2,5%. The incidence increased in St. Petersburg by 18,1% (from 14,9 in 2013 to 17,6 in 2017 per 100 000 of children aged 0-17). The incidence in the Leningrad Region fell by 4.9% (from 14.4 in 2013 to 13.7 in 2017). Mortality in 2016-2017 in St. Petersburg increased by 50% (from 2 to 3), in the Leningrad Region - by 12,5% (from 2,4 to 2,7). The one-year mortality rate in St. Petersburg increased by 3,9% (from 2,5 to 6,4%). In the Leningrad Region, the one-year mortality rate decreased from 6,5% in 2016 to 0 in 2017. The number of pediatric oncological beds did not change in St. Petersburg (0,9 per 10,000 children aged 0-17 years) and the Leningrad Region (0). In St. Petersburg patients were not identified actively in 2016-2017; in the Leningrad Region their percentage decreased from 8,7 to 0. The number of oncologists increased in St. Petersburg from 0,09 to 0.12 (+33,3%), in the Leningrad Region - from 0 to 0,03. Conclusion: Morbidity in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region is significantly different, which indicates obvious defects in statistical data. Patients were not identified during routine preventive examinations which indicate a low oncologic alertness of district pediatric physicians. Delivery of medical care for children with cancer and the statistical data accumulation procedures should be improved.

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