scholarly journals Current and Future Climate Compound-Event Flood Impact on Coastal Critical Infrastructures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariam Khanam ◽  
Giulia Sofia ◽  
Marika Koukoula ◽  
Rehenuma Lazin ◽  
Efthymios Nikolopoulos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Condition ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract. The changing climate and adverse anthropogenic activities raise the likelihood of damages due to compound flood hazards, triggered by the combined occurrence of extreme precipitation and storm surge during high tides, and exacerbated by sea-level rise (SLR). Risk estimates associated with these extreme event scenarios are expected to be significantly higher than estimates derived from a standard evaluation of individual hazards. In this study, we present case studies of compound flood hazards affecting critical infrastructure (CI) in coastal Connecticut (USA) based on actual and synthetic (that is, under future climate conditions) hurricane events, represented by heavy precipitation and surge combined with high tides and SLR conditions. We used the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined coastal and riverine flooding on selected CI sites. We forced a distributed hydrological model (CREST-SVAS) with weather analysis data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the synthetic events and from the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) for the actual events, to derive the upstream boundary condition (flood wave) of HEC-RAS. We extracted coastal tide and surge time series for each event from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to use as the downstream boundary condition of HEC-RAS. The significant outcome of this study represents the evaluation of changes in flood risk for the CI sites for the various compound scenarios (under current and future climate conditions). This approach offers an estimate of the potential impact of compound hazards relative to the 100-year flood maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is vital to developing mitigation strategies. In a broader sense, this study provides a framework for assessing risk factors of our modern infrastructure located in vulnerable coastal areas throughout the world.

scholarly journals Impact of compound flood event on coastal critical infrastructures considering current and future climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 587-605
Author(s):  
Mariam Khanam ◽  
Giulia Sofia ◽  
Marika Koukoula ◽  
Rehenuma Lazin ◽  
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Condition ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract. The changing climate and anthropogenic activities raise the likelihood of damage due to compound flood hazards, triggered by the combined occurrence of extreme precipitation and storm surge during high tides and exacerbated by sea-level rise (SLR). Risk estimates associated with these extreme event scenarios are expected to be significantly higher than estimates derived from a standard evaluation of individual hazards. In this study, we present case studies of compound flood hazards affecting critical infrastructure (CI) in coastal Connecticut (USA). We based the analysis on actual and synthetic (considering future climate conditions for atmospheric forcing, sea-level rise, and forecasted hurricane tracks) hurricane events, represented by heavy precipitation and surge combined with tides and SLR conditions. We used the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, to simulate the combined coastal and riverine flooding of selected CI sites. We forced a distributed hydrological model (CREST-SVAS) with weather analysis data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the synthetic events and from the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) for the actual events, to derive the upstream boundary condition (flood wave) of HEC-RAS. We extracted coastal tide and surge time series for each event from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to use as the downstream boundary condition of HEC-RAS. The significant outcome of this study represents the evaluation of changes in flood risk for the CI sites for the various compound scenarios (under current and future climate conditions). This approach offers an estimate of the potential impact of compound hazards relative to the 100-year flood maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is vital to developing mitigation strategies. In a broader sense, this study provides a framework for assessing the risk factors of our modern infrastructure located in vulnerable coastal areas throughout the world.

scholarly journals The effects of climate change on flood hazards in Kelantan River Basin Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 880 (1) ◽  
pp. 012016
Author(s):  
Tze Huey Tam ◽  
Muhammad Zulkarnain Abd Rahman ◽  
Sobri Harun ◽  
Sophal Try ◽  
Ismaila Usman Kaoje ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Kelantan River Basin

Abstract Climate change has had a significant impact on the hydrological cycle, causing changes in precipitation patterns in both frequency and magnitude. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of climate change on flood hazards in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. A distributed hydrological model called Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) simulates floods under current and future climate scenarios. The Climate Change Factor (CCF) is a tool for forecasting future climate scenarios. The storm used in this analysis had 50-year and 100-year recurrence intervals every 24 hours (ARI). The finding shows that the streamflow in Guillemard station will increase in the future for both the 50- and 100-year ARI. The streamflow increased to 10329 m3/s from 8434.9 m3/s in the current state and to 11220.2 m3/s from 9157.4 m3/s in the 50- and 100-year ARI, respectively. In both cases, the 100-year ARI flood magnitude is significantly less than the 50-year ARI flood extent (current and future). However, the flood depth in several towns located downstream of the Kelantan River Basin is more significant for the 100-year ARI than for the 50-year ARI for both cases. The study’s findings would be helpful to relevant agencies and government departments understand the current and potential flood hazard situation in the study area and assist them in developing effective mitigation strategies for future flood hazards.

scholarly journals Assimilating X- and S-Band Radar Data for a Heavy Precipitation Event in Italy

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1727
Author(s):  
Valerio Capecchi ◽  
Andrea Antonini ◽  
Riccardo Benedetti ◽  
Luca Fibbi ◽  
Samantha Melani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Event ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Heavy Precipitation Event ◽  
The Town

During the night between 9 and 10 September 2017, multiple flash floods associated with a heavy-precipitation event affected the town of Livorno, located in Tuscany, Italy. Accumulated precipitation exceeding 200 mm in two hours was recorded. This rainfall intensity is associated with a return period of higher than 200 years. As a consequence, all the largest streams of the Livorno municipality flooded several areas of the town. We used the limited-area weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, in a convection-permitting setup, to reconstruct the extreme event leading to the flash floods. We evaluated possible forecasting improvements emerging from the assimilation of local ground stations and X- and S-band radar data into the WRF, using the configuration operational at the meteorological center of Tuscany region (LaMMA) at the time of the event. Simulations were verified against weather station observations, through an innovative method aimed at disentangling the positioning and intensity errors of precipitation forecasts. A more accurate description of the low-level flows and a better assessment of the atmospheric water vapor field showed how the assimilation of radar data can improve quantitative precipitation forecasts.

scholarly journals Assimilating X- and S-band Radar Data for a Heavy Precipitation Event in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerio Capecchi ◽  
Andrea Antonini ◽  
Riccardo Benedetti ◽  
Luca Fibbi ◽  
Samantha Melani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Event ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Heavy Precipitation Event ◽  
The Town

During the night between 9 and 10 September 2017, multiple flash floods associated to a heavy-precipitation event affected the town of Livorno, located in Tuscany, Italy. Accumulated precipitation exceeding 200 mm in two hours, associated with a return period higher than 200 years, caused all the largest streams of the Livorno municipality to flood several areas of the town. We used the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in a convection-permitting setup, to reconstruct the extreme event leading to the flash floods. We evaluated possible forecasting improvements emerging from the assimilation of local ground stations and X- and S-band radar data into the WRF, using the configuration operational at the meteorological center of Tuscany region (LaMMA) at the time of the event. Simulations were verified against weather station observations, through an innovative method aimed at disentangling the positioning and intensity errors of precipitation forecasts. By providing more accurate descriptions of the low-level flow and a better assessment of the atmospheric water vapour, the results demonstrate that assimilating radar data improved the quantitative precipitation forecasts.

scholarly journals Potential Impact of the Current and Future Climate on the Yield, Quality, and Climate Suitability for Tea [Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze]: A Systematic Review

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 619
Author(s):  
Sadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe ◽  
Lalit Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Tea Quality ◽  
Climate Suitability ◽  
Yield Quality ◽  
The Impact

Even though climate change is having an increasing impact on tea plants, systematic reviews on the impact of climate change on the tea system are scarce. This review was undertaken to assess and synthesize the knowledge around the impacts of current and future climate on yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea; the historical roots and the most influential papers on the aforementioned topics; and the key adaptation and mitigation strategies that are practiced in tea fields. Our findings show that a large number of studies have focused on the impact of climate change on tea quality, followed by tea yield, while a smaller number of studies have concentrated on climate suitability. Three pronounced reference peaks found in Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RYPS) represent the most significant papers associated with the yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea. Tea yield increases with elevated CO2 levels, but this increment could be substantially affected by an increasing temperature. Other climatic factors are uneven rainfall, extreme weather events, and climate-driven abiotic stressors. An altered climate presents both advantages and disadvantages for tea quality due to the uncertainty of the concentrations of biochemicals in tea leaves. Climate change creates losses, gains, and shifts of climate suitability for tea habitats. Further studies are required in order to fill the knowledge gaps identified through the present review, such as an investigation of the interaction between the tea plant and multiple environmental factors that mimic real-world conditions and then studies on its impact on the tea system, as well as the design of ensemble modeling approaches to predict climate suitability for tea. Finally, we outline multifaceted and evidence-based adaptive and mitigation strategies that can be implemented in tea fields to alleviate the undesirable impacts of climate change.

Design of a rubble mound breakwater under the combined effect of wave heights and water levels, under present and future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 102711
Author(s):  
Soheil Radfar ◽  
Mehdi Shafieefar ◽  
Hassan Akbari ◽  
Panagiota A. Galiatsatou ◽  
Ahmad Rezaee Mazyak
Keyword(s):  
Water Levels ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Rubble Mound

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Dissolved organic nutrients at the interface of fresh and marine waters: flow regime changes, biogeochemical cascades and picocyanobacterial blooms—the example of Florida Bay, USA

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia M. Glibert ◽  
Cynthia A. Heil ◽  
Christopher J. Madden ◽  
Stephen P. Kelly
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Florida Bay ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Physico Chemical ◽  
Organic Nutrients ◽  
High Concentrations ◽  
Chemical Conditions ◽  
Favorable Conditions

AbstractThe availability of dissolved inorganic and organic nutrients and their transformations along the fresh to marine continuum are being modified by various natural and anthropogenic activities and climate-related changes. Subtropical central and eastern Florida Bay, located at the southern end of the Florida peninsula, is classically considered to have inorganic nutrient conditions that are in higher-than-Redfield ratio proportions, and high levels of organic and chemically-reduced forms of nitrogen. However, salinity, pH and nutrients, both organic and inorganic, change with changes in freshwater flows to the bay. Here, using a time series of water quality and physico-chemical conditions from 2009 to 2019, the impacts of distinct changes in managed flow, drought, El Niño-related increases in precipitation, and intensive storms and hurricanes are explored with respect to changes in water quality and resulting ecosystem effects, with a focus on understanding why picocyanobacterial blooms formed when they did. Drought produced hyper-salinity conditions that were associated with a seagrass die-off. Years later, increases in precipitation resulting from intensive storms and a hurricane were associated with high loads of organic nutrients, and declines in pH, likely due to high organic acid input and decaying organic matter, collectively leading to physiologically favorable conditions for growth of the picocyanobacterium, Synechococcus spp. These conditions, including very high concentrations of NH4+, were likely inhibiting for seagrass recovery and for growth of competing phytoplankton or their grazers. Given projected future climate conditions, and anticipated cycles of drought and intensive storms, the likelihood of future seagrass die-offs and picocyanobacterial blooms is high.

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