The effects of climate change on flood hazards in Kelantan River Basin Malaysia

Abstract Climate change has had a significant impact on the hydrological cycle, causing changes in precipitation patterns in both frequency and magnitude. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of climate change on flood hazards in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. A distributed hydrological model called Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) simulates floods under current and future climate scenarios. The Climate Change Factor (CCF) is a tool for forecasting future climate scenarios. The storm used in this analysis had 50-year and 100-year recurrence intervals every 24 hours (ARI). The finding shows that the streamflow in Guillemard station will increase in the future for both the 50- and 100-year ARI. The streamflow increased to 10329 m3/s from 8434.9 m3/s in the current state and to 11220.2 m3/s from 9157.4 m3/s in the 50- and 100-year ARI, respectively. In both cases, the 100-year ARI flood magnitude is significantly less than the 50-year ARI flood extent (current and future). However, the flood depth in several towns located downstream of the Kelantan River Basin is more significant for the 100-year ARI than for the 50-year ARI for both cases. The study’s findings would be helpful to relevant agencies and government departments understand the current and potential flood hazard situation in the study area and assist them in developing effective mitigation strategies for future flood hazards.

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Flood Hazard Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia

10.21203/rs.3.rs-858810/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tze Huey Tam ◽

Muhammad Zulkarnain Abdul Rahman ◽

Sobri Harun ◽

Sophal Try ◽

Shamsuddin Shahid ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Flood Hazards ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Design Rainfall ◽

Kelantan River Basin ◽

The Impact

Abstract Climate change can significantly alter the hydrological cycle and lead to severe hydrological disasters. This study aims to determine the impact of climate change on flood hazards in the Kelantan River Basin of Malaysia. The Climate Change Factor (CCF) is used to calculate 24-hour design rainfall with 50, 100 and 200-year return periods. A distributed hydrological model, Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI), is used to simulate flood inundation under current and future climate scenarios. The results indicate an increase in 50, 100, and 200 years, design rainfall, streamflow and flood hazard. The expected design rainfall and streamflow for 50, 100, and 200 years would increase by 36.6%, 37.9%, 42.7%, and 43.2%, 32.7%, 36.5%, respectively. Flood hazard is spatially variable in the Kelantan River Basin. Tanah Merah is the town that would face a significant increase in future flooding. The findings of this study can aid relevant agencies and government departments to comprehend the current and future flood hazard situation in the Kelantan River Basin. It would also assist them in formulating appropriate flood management strategies to mitigate future severe flood hazards.

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Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

Water ◽

10.3390/w12102825 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (10) ◽

pp. 2825

Author(s):

Xupu Li ◽

Liwei Zhang ◽

Patrick J. O’Connor ◽

Junping Yan ◽

Bin Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

River Basin ◽

Soil Conservation ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

Related Services ◽

Hanjiang River

Climate change can have critical impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) and their inter-relationships, especially for water-related services. However, there has been little work done on characterizing the current and future changes in these services and their inter-relationships under a changing climate. Based on the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), the soil conservation service curve number model (SCS-CN), and the improved stochastic weather-generator-based statistical downscaled global climate models (GCMs), we examined two important water-related services, namely, the soil conservation (SC) service and the flood mitigation (FM) service, and their inter-relationship under baseline and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). We took the Upper Hanjiang River Basin (UHRB), which is the core water source area of the China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (S–NWDP), as an illustration. The findings revealed that (1) the SC and FM services will both decrease under the two climate scenarios examined; (2) the SC and FM services showed a significant synergistic inter-relationship and the synergy will be improved by 16.48% and 2.95% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, which provides an opportunity for management optimization; (3) the ecological degradation in the UHRB will likely have serious consequences for the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang river basin, and therefore impact the actual economic benefits of the S–NWDP. This study points to the necessity for understanding the dynamic changes and inter-relationships of ecosystem services under future climate change and provides information regarding the consequences of climate change, which is useful for policy and infrastructure investment.

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Impact of compound flood event on coastal critical infrastructures considering current and future climate

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (2) ◽

pp. 587-605

Author(s):

Mariam Khanam ◽

Giulia Sofia ◽

Marika Koukoula ◽

Rehenuma Lazin ◽

Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Boundary Condition ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Future Climate ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Flood Hazards ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Conditions

Abstract. The changing climate and anthropogenic activities raise the likelihood of damage due to compound flood hazards, triggered by the combined occurrence of extreme precipitation and storm surge during high tides and exacerbated by sea-level rise (SLR). Risk estimates associated with these extreme event scenarios are expected to be significantly higher than estimates derived from a standard evaluation of individual hazards. In this study, we present case studies of compound flood hazards affecting critical infrastructure (CI) in coastal Connecticut (USA). We based the analysis on actual and synthetic (considering future climate conditions for atmospheric forcing, sea-level rise, and forecasted hurricane tracks) hurricane events, represented by heavy precipitation and surge combined with tides and SLR conditions. We used the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, to simulate the combined coastal and riverine flooding of selected CI sites. We forced a distributed hydrological model (CREST-SVAS) with weather analysis data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the synthetic events and from the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) for the actual events, to derive the upstream boundary condition (flood wave) of HEC-RAS. We extracted coastal tide and surge time series for each event from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to use as the downstream boundary condition of HEC-RAS. The significant outcome of this study represents the evaluation of changes in flood risk for the CI sites for the various compound scenarios (under current and future climate conditions). This approach offers an estimate of the potential impact of compound hazards relative to the 100-year flood maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is vital to developing mitigation strategies. In a broader sense, this study provides a framework for assessing the risk factors of our modern infrastructure located in vulnerable coastal areas throughout the world.

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Current and Future Climate Compound-Event Flood Impact on Coastal Critical Infrastructures

10.5194/nhess-2020-132 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mariam Khanam ◽

Giulia Sofia ◽

Marika Koukoula ◽

Rehenuma Lazin ◽

Efthymios Nikolopoulos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Boundary Condition ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Future Climate ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Flood Hazards ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Conditions

Abstract. The changing climate and adverse anthropogenic activities raise the likelihood of damages due to compound flood hazards, triggered by the combined occurrence of extreme precipitation and storm surge during high tides, and exacerbated by sea-level rise (SLR). Risk estimates associated with these extreme event scenarios are expected to be significantly higher than estimates derived from a standard evaluation of individual hazards. In this study, we present case studies of compound flood hazards affecting critical infrastructure (CI) in coastal Connecticut (USA) based on actual and synthetic (that is, under future climate conditions) hurricane events, represented by heavy precipitation and surge combined with high tides and SLR conditions. We used the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined coastal and riverine flooding on selected CI sites. We forced a distributed hydrological model (CREST-SVAS) with weather analysis data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the synthetic events and from the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) for the actual events, to derive the upstream boundary condition (flood wave) of HEC-RAS. We extracted coastal tide and surge time series for each event from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to use as the downstream boundary condition of HEC-RAS. The significant outcome of this study represents the evaluation of changes in flood risk for the CI sites for the various compound scenarios (under current and future climate conditions). This approach offers an estimate of the potential impact of compound hazards relative to the 100-year flood maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is vital to developing mitigation strategies. In a broader sense, this study provides a framework for assessing risk factors of our modern infrastructure located in vulnerable coastal areas throughout the world.

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Application of a distributed catchment model to investigate hydrological impacts of climate change within Poyang Lake catchment (China)

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2016.234 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 47 (S1) ◽

pp. 120-135 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Y. L. Li ◽

H. Tao ◽

J. Yao ◽

Q. Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Poyang Lake ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Mean Annual Precipitation ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Lake Catchment

The extreme cycles of flood and drought in the Poyang Lake catchment (China) place immense pressure on the region's water users and ecosystems. This study examines potential impacts of future climate change in the Poyang Lake catchment using the popular regional climate model, COSMO-CLM, and a distributed hydrological model, WATLAC. Near-future projections (2016–2035) indicate that the mean annual precipitation and temperature are expected to increase over the catchment, with the exception of some northern regions. Relative to the baseline period (1986–2005), the monthly mean precipitation is projected to increase in spring, summer and autumn (March-October), and to decrease in winter (November-February), with the most significant changes in September (62%) and January (−39%). Projected increases in monthly mean temperatures range from 0.3 to 1.4 °C, 0.2 to 0.7 °C, and 0.2 to 1.2 °C for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate scenarios RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Winter temperatures are expected to increase significantly regardless of the climate scenarios. WATLAC simulations indicate that future climate changes will lead to increased high flows in summer and reduced low flows in winter, in terms of both frequency and magnitude, suggesting a high likelihood of an increase in frequency and severity of flooding and droughts in the Poyang Lake catchment.

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Potential Impact of the Current and Future Climate on the Yield, Quality, and Climate Suitability for Tea [Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze]: A Systematic Review

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy11040619 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 619

Author(s):

Sadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe ◽

Lalit Kumar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Advantages And Disadvantages ◽

Tea Quality ◽

Climate Suitability ◽

Yield Quality ◽

The Impact

Even though climate change is having an increasing impact on tea plants, systematic reviews on the impact of climate change on the tea system are scarce. This review was undertaken to assess and synthesize the knowledge around the impacts of current and future climate on yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea; the historical roots and the most influential papers on the aforementioned topics; and the key adaptation and mitigation strategies that are practiced in tea fields. Our findings show that a large number of studies have focused on the impact of climate change on tea quality, followed by tea yield, while a smaller number of studies have concentrated on climate suitability. Three pronounced reference peaks found in Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RYPS) represent the most significant papers associated with the yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea. Tea yield increases with elevated CO2 levels, but this increment could be substantially affected by an increasing temperature. Other climatic factors are uneven rainfall, extreme weather events, and climate-driven abiotic stressors. An altered climate presents both advantages and disadvantages for tea quality due to the uncertainty of the concentrations of biochemicals in tea leaves. Climate change creates losses, gains, and shifts of climate suitability for tea habitats. Further studies are required in order to fill the knowledge gaps identified through the present review, such as an investigation of the interaction between the tea plant and multiple environmental factors that mimic real-world conditions and then studies on its impact on the tea system, as well as the design of ensemble modeling approaches to predict climate suitability for tea. Finally, we outline multifaceted and evidence-based adaptive and mitigation strategies that can be implemented in tea fields to alleviate the undesirable impacts of climate change.

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Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽

Georg Guggenberger ◽

Norbert Bischoff ◽

Irina Kurganova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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Acclimatization to high-variance habitats does not enhance physiological tolerance of two key Caribbean corals to future temperature and pH

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2016.0442 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 283 (1831) ◽

pp. 20160442 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

Emma F. Camp ◽

David J. Smith ◽

Chris Evenhuis ◽

Ian Enochs ◽

Derek Manzello ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Seagrass Beds ◽

Metabolic Rates ◽

Acropora Palmata ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Environmental Variance ◽

Outer Reef ◽

Porites Astreoides ◽

Physiological Tolerance

Corals are acclimatized to populate dynamic habitats that neighbour coral reefs. Habitats such as seagrass beds exhibit broad diel changes in temperature and pH that routinely expose corals to conditions predicted for reefs over the next 50–100 years. However, whether such acclimatization effectively enhances physiological tolerance to, and hence provides refuge against, future climate scenarios remains unknown. Also, whether corals living in low-variance habitats can tolerate present-day high-variance conditions remains untested. We experimentally examined how pH and temperature predicted for the year 2100 affects the growth and physiology of two dominant Caribbean corals ( Acropora palmata and Porites astreoides ) native to habitats with intrinsically low (outer-reef terrace, LV) and/or high (neighbouring seagrass, HV) environmental variance. Under present-day temperature and pH, growth and metabolic rates (calcification, respiration and photosynthesis) were unchanged for HV versus LV populations. Superimposing future climate scenarios onto the HV and LV conditions did not result in any enhanced tolerance to colonies native to HV. Calcification rates were always lower for elevated temperature and/or reduced pH. Together, these results suggest that seagrass habitats may not serve as refugia against climate change if the magnitude of future temperature and pH changes is equivalent to neighbouring reef habitats.

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Evaluation of Climate Change on Streamflow, Sediment, and Nutrient Load at Watershed Scale

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli9110165 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 165

Author(s):

Prem B. Parajuli ◽

Avay Risal

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Quality ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Future Climate ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Nutrient Load ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Monthly Average ◽

Average Maximum ◽

Monthly Streamflow

This study evaluated changes in climatic variable impacts on hydrology and water quality in Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW), Mississippi. Site-specific future time-series precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation data were generated using a stochastic weather generator LARS-WG model. For the generation of climate scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5 of Global Circulation Models (GCMs): Hadley Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) and EC-EARTH, for three (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080) future climate periods. Analysis of future climate data based on six ground weather stations located within BSRW showed that the minimum temperature ranged from 11.9 °C to 15.9 °C and the maximum temperature ranged from 23.2 °C to 28.3 °C. Similarly, the average daily rainfall ranged from 3.6 mm to 4.3 mm. Analysis of changes in monthly average maximum/minimum temperature showed that January had the maximum increment and July/August had a minimum increment in monthly average temperature. Similarly, maximum increase in monthly average rainfall was observed during May and maximum decrease was observed during September. The average monthly streamflow, sediment, TN, and TP loads under different climate scenarios varied significantly. The change in average TN and TP loads due to climate change were observed to be very high compared to the change in streamflow and sediment load. The monthly average nutrient load under two different RCP scenarios varied greatly from as low as 63% to as high as 184%, compared to the current monthly nutrient load. The change in hydrology and water quality was mainly attributed to changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. This study can be useful in the development and implementation of climate change smart management of agricultural watersheds.

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Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

Acta Scientiarum Technology ◽

10.4025/actascitechnol.v43i1.56026 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 43 ◽

pp. e56026

Author(s):

Gabriela Leite Neves ◽

Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽

Maysa de Lima Leite ◽

Frederico Fabio Mauad

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Water Availability ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Southern Brazil ◽

Climate Data ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

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