scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of Lake Palcacocha, Peru

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Huggel ◽  
Mark Carey ◽  
Adam Emmer ◽  
Holger Frey ◽  
Noah Walker-Crawford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures ◽  
Global And Local ◽  
Human Systems

Abstract. Evidence of observed negative impacts on natural and human systems from anthropogenic climate change is increasing. However, human systems in particular are dynamic and influenced by multiple drivers, and hence identifying an anthropogenic climate signal is challenging. Here we analyze the case of lake Palcacocha in the Andes of Peru which offers a representative model for other glacier lakes and related risks around the world because it features a dynamic evolution of flood risk driven by physical and socio-economic factors and processes. Furthermore, it is the object of a prominent climate litigation case where a local Peruvian citizen sued a large German energy producer over risk of flooding from lake Palcacocha. Adopting a conceptual model of cascading impacts and multiple drivers of risk we first study climatic and other geophysical drivers of flood risk. We find that an anthropogenic signal related to greenhouse gas emissions is traceable. In parallel, flood risk has been strongly shaped (and increased) by interacting socio-economic, institutional and cultural processes over the past decades. The case raises important questions of responsibility for flood risk of global and local agents which, however, are difficult to address in cases like Palcacocha where we reveal a complex network of interlinked global, national and local drivers. Following from this we outline a normative framework with a differentiated perspective on responsibility, implying that global emitters commit to support strengthening capacities in affected regions and localities, and local institutions and societies engage in local risk reduction measures and policies.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 2175-2193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Huggel ◽  
Mark Carey ◽  
Adam Emmer ◽  
Holger Frey ◽  
Noah Walker-Crawford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures ◽  
Global And Local ◽  
Human Systems

Abstract. Evidence of observed negative impacts on natural and human systems from anthropogenic climate change is increasing. However, human systems in particular are dynamic and influenced by multiple drivers and hence identifying an anthropogenic climate signal is challenging. Here we analyze the case of lake Palcacocha in the Andes of Peru, which offers a representative model for other glacier lakes and related risks around the world because it features a dynamic evolution of flood risk driven by physical and socioeconomic factors and processes. Furthermore, it is the object of a prominent climate litigation case, wherein a local Peruvian citizen sued a large German energy producer over risk of flooding from lake Palcacocha. Adopting a conceptual model of cascading impacts and multiple drivers of risk, we first study climatic and other geophysical drivers of flood risk. We find that an anthropogenic signal from flood risk to greenhouse gas emissions is traceable. In parallel, flood risk has been strongly shaped (and increased) by interacting socioeconomic, institutional and cultural processes over the past few decades. The case raises important questions about the differentiation of responsibilities relating to flood risk of both global and local agents, which are, however, difficult to address in cases like Palcacocha, where we reveal a complex network of interlinked global, national and local drivers. Following from this, we outline a normative framework with a differentiated perspective on responsibility, implying that global emitters commit to support strengthening capacities in affected regions and localities and that local institutions and societies engage in local risk reduction measures and policies in collaboration with and driven by local communities.

Natural and human systems of the Andes under climate change: local detection and attribution assessment of impacts in physical, biological and human systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Ochoa-Sánchez ◽  
Fabian Drenkhan ◽  
Dáithí Stone ◽  
Daniel Mendoza ◽  
Ronald Gualán ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Systems ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Andean Region ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Human Systems

<p>Physical, biological, and human systems in mountain regions are highly sensitive to climate change due to strong feedbacks and low resilience. Detection of changes and attribution of them to climate and non-climate drivers provides ongoing monitoring of complex interactions of coupled natural and human systems and improving scientific assessments that inform mitigation and adaptation practices. In the IPCC 5<sup>th</sup> Assessment Report published in 2014, Central and South America was the region with the least evidence available for detection and attribution (D&A) of climate change impacts. Since then, much more evidence has accumulated due to an increasing number of studies detecting impacts in the Andean region. In this study, we therefore performed a systematic literature review of climate change impacts and made a local D&A expert impact assessment for a total of 12 natural and human systems in the Andes. We found the following confidence levels of detection and attribution of each impact for each system: medium and high, respectively, for energy; high and high, for snow and ice, tourism, and cultural values; high and medium for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, disasters, human health and migration; and medium and medium for agriculture and water systems. A total number of 65 sample impacts (in aggregate or case study form) could be attributed to climate change. Climate change was especially important in glacio-hydrological systems (49%) and terrestrial ecosystems (15%). Among the impacts that could be attributed to climate change with high confidence, snow and ice system dominated. About half of the total impact samples were attributed with medium confidence, of which 35% corresponded to water systems and 16% to agriculture. Finally, 14% of all impacts were assessed with low attribution confidence. Important results include: (1) glacier retreat leads to important cascading effects affecting most of the systems in the Andes; these impacts were primarily attributed to temperature increase caused by anthropogenic climate change; (2) numerous terrestrial and aquatic Andean ecosystems have been affected by climate change (e.g. upward plant colonization, changes in the abundance and distribution of species), and most of these impacts could be attributed to anthropogenic climate change; and (3) community changes and loss of cultural values are among the strongest impacts of human systems that were attributed to climate change; a broad set of studies detected that Andean communities perceived changes in their highly preserved long-standing cultural and spiritual rituals and cosmovision. These findings are key to understand current climate change impacts in the Andean region, and to advance our understanding of complex interactions of coupled natural and human systems in order to put particular attention on integrated scientific assessments and leverage local decision-making and management practices.</p>

Anthropogenic climate change detected in natural and human systems of the world’s mountains

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Huggel ◽  
Simon K. Allen ◽  
Indra D. Bhatt ◽  
Rithodi Chakraborty ◽  
Fabian Drenkhan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mountain Regions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Mountain Systems ◽  
Human Systems

<p>Mountains cover about a quarter of the Earth’s land surface and are home to or serve a substantial fraction of the global population with essential ecosystem services, in particular water, food, energy, and recreation. While mountain systems are expected to be highly exposed to climate change, we currently lack a comprehensive global picture of the extent to which environmental and human systems in mountain regions have been affected by recent anthropogenic climate change.</p><p>Here we undertake an unprecedented effort to detect observed impacts of climate change in mountains regions across all continents. We follow the approach implemented in the IPCC 5<sup>th</sup> Assessment Report (AR5) and follow-up research where we consider whether a natural or human system has changed beyond its baseline behavior in the absence of climate change, and then attribute the observed change to different drivers, including anthropogenic climate change. We apply an extensive review of peer-reviewed and grey literature and identify more than 300 samples of impacts (aggregate and case studies). We show that a wide range of natural and human systems in mountains have been affected by climate change, including the cryosphere, the water cycle and water resources, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, energy production, infrastructure, agriculture, health, migration, tourism, community and cultural values and disasters. Our assessment documents that climate change impacts are observed in mountain regions on all continents. However, the explicit distinction of different drivers contributing to or determining an observed change is often highly challenging; particularly due to widespread data scarcity in mountain regions. In that context, we were also able to document a high amount of impacts in previously under-reported continents such as Africa and South America. In particular, we have been able to include a substantial number of place-based insights from local/indigenous communities representing important alternative worldviews.</p><p>The role of human influence in observed climate changes is evaluated using data from multiple gridded observational climate products and global climate models. We find that anthropogenic climate change has a clear and discernable fingerprint in changing natural and human mountain systems across the globe. In the cryosphere, ecosystems, water resources and tourism the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed changes is significant, showing the sensitivity of these systems to current and future climate change. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the need to consider the plurality of knowledge systems through which climate change impacts are being understood in mountain regions. Such attempts at inclusivity, which addresses issues of representation and justice, should be deemed necessary in exploring climate change impacts.</p>

High-impact marine heatwaves attributable to human-induced global warming

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 369 (6511) ◽  
pp. 1621-1625
Author(s):  
Charlotte Laufkötter ◽  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Thomas L. Frölicher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Marine Organisms ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
Negative Impacts

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—periods of extremely high ocean temperatures in specific regions—have occurred in all of Earth’s ocean basins over the past two decades, with severe negative impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. However, for most individual MHWs, it is unclear to what extent they have been altered by human-induced climate change. We show that the occurrence probabilities of the duration, intensity, and cumulative intensity of most documented, large, and impactful MHWs have increased more than 20-fold as a result of anthropogenic climate change. MHWs that occurred only once every hundreds to thousands of years in the preindustrial climate are projected to become decadal to centennial events under 1.5°C warming conditions and annual to decadal events under 3°C warming conditions. Thus, ambitious climate targets are indispensable to reduce the risks of substantial MHW impacts.

scholarly journals U.S. flood risk in the Anthropocene

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Wing ◽  
William Lehman ◽  
Paul Bates ◽  
Chris Sampson ◽  
Niall Quinn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Black Communities ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A national depiction of high-resolution flood risk estimates has previously been thought to be beyond the grasp of reasonable computational capabilities. However, recent developments in inundation modelling now permit the first comprehensive national flood risk assessment of the US, which indicates an expected annual direct damage to property of 27 billion USD in 2020’s climate. Current flood risk is disproportionately borne by poorer and more White communities, and is concentrated on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, the Northeast through Appalachia, and the Pacific Northwest. Under a medium-case concentration pathway (RCP4.5), we project a 37% increase in risk by 2050 due to climate change alone. This climate signal appears to disproportionately impact Black communities, with risk increases concentrated again on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Medium-case (SSP2) projections of population change cause flood risk increases that dwarf the impact of climate change by 4:1, illustrating the need for a holistic view on changes in risk with consideration of all its constituent causes. These results make clear the desperate need for adaptation to flood and emergent climate risks in the US, with mitigation required to prevent acceleration of this risk into the latter half of the century. These results can and should inform zoning, regulations, and targeted adaptation policies, as well as motivate wide reaching reforms in how flood risk and emergencies are managed.

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