Continental Portuguese Territory Flood Susceptibility Index – contribution for a vulnerability index

Abstract. This work defines a national flood susceptibility index for the Portuguese continental territory, by proposing the aggregation of different variables which represent natural conditions for permeability, runoff and accumulation. This index is part of the national vulnerability index developed in the scope of Flood Maps in Climate Change Scenarios (CIRAC) project, supported by the Portuguese Association of Insurers (APS). This approach expands on previous works by trying to bridge the gap between different floods mechanisms (e.g. progressive and flash floods) occurring at different spatial scales in the Portuguese territory through: (a) selecting homogeneously processed datasets, (b) aggregating their values to better translate the spatially continuous and cumulative influence in floods at multiple spatial scales. Results show a good ability to capture, in the higher susceptibility classes, different flood types: progressive floods and flash floods. Lower values are usually related to: mountainous areas, low water accumulation potential and more permeable soils. Validation with independent flood datasets confirmed these index characteristics, although some overestimation can be seen in the southern region of Alentejo where, due to a dense hydrographic network and an overall low slope, floods are not as frequent as a result of lower precipitation mean values. Future work will focus on: (i) including extreme precipitation datasets to represent the triggering factor, (ii) improving representation of smaller and stepper basins, (iii) optimizing variable weight definition process, (iii) developing more robust independent flood validation datasets.

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Continental Portuguese Territory Flood Susceptibility Index – contribution to a vulnerability index

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-15-1907-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (8) ◽

pp. 1907-1919 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

R. Jacinto ◽

N. Grosso ◽

E. Reis ◽

L. Dias ◽

F. D. Santos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Spatial Scales ◽

Vulnerability Index ◽

Flash Floods ◽

Data Sets ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Validation Data ◽

Susceptibility Index ◽

Flood Susceptibility ◽

Good Ability ◽

Variable Weight

Abstract. This work defines a national flood susceptibility index for the Portuguese continental territory, by proposing the aggregation of different variables which represent natural conditions for permeability, runoff and accumulation. This index is part of the national vulnerability index developed in the scope of Flood Maps in Climate Change Scenarios (CIRAC) project, supported by the Portuguese Association of Insurers (APS). This approach expands on previous works by trying to bridge the gap between different flood mechanisms (e.g. progressive and flash floods) occurring at different spatial scales in the Portuguese territory through (a) selecting homogeneously processed data sets and (b) aggregating their values to better translate the spatially continuous and cumulative influence in floods at multiple spatial scales. Results show a good ability to capture, in the higher susceptibility classes, different flood types: fluvial floods and flash floods. Lower values are usually related to mountainous areas, low water accumulation potential and more permeable soils. Validation with independent flood data sets confirmed these index characteristics, although some overestimation can be seen in the southern region of Alentejo where, due to a dense hydrographic network and an overall low slope, floods are not as frequent as a result of lower precipitation mean values. Future work will focus on (i) including extreme precipitation data sets to represent the triggering factor, (ii) improving representation of smaller and stepper basins, (iii) optimizing variable weight definition process and (iii) developing more robust independent flood validation data sets.

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Continental Portuguese Territory Flood Social Susceptibility Index

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-15-1921-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (8) ◽

pp. 1921-1931 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

N. Grosso ◽

L. Dias ◽

H. P. Costa ◽

F. D. Santos ◽

P. Garrett

Keyword(s):

Coastal Region ◽

Vulnerability Index ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Lower Income ◽

National Scale ◽

Susceptibility Index ◽

Weather Events ◽

Education Levels ◽

Flood Effects

Abstract. The combination of human exposure, extreme weather events and lack of adaptation strategies to cope with flood-related impacts can potentially increase losses not only on infrastructure but also on human lives. These impacts are usually difficult to quantify due to the lack of data, and for this reason most of the studies developed at the national scale only include the main characteristics that define the societal or individual predisposition to be affected, resist, adapt or recover, when exposed to a flood. The main objective of this work was to develop a flood social susceptibility index for the continental Portuguese territory based on the most representative variables able to characterize different influencing factors. This index is a component of the national vulnerability index developed in the scope of Flood Maps in Climate Change Scenarios (CIRAC) project, supported by the Portuguese Association of Insurers (APS). The main results showed that the proposed index correctly identified populations less prepared to avoid flood effects or able to cope with them, mostly concentrated in rural inland areas with lower income and education levels when compared with the coastal region between Viana do Castelo and Setúbal.

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Continental Portuguese Territory Flood Social Susceptibility Index

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-2-7553-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2 (12) ◽

pp. 7553-7582

Author(s):

N. Grosso ◽

L. Dias ◽

H. P. Costa ◽

F. D. Santos ◽

P. Garrett

Keyword(s):

Coastal Region ◽

Vulnerability Index ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Lower Income ◽

National Scale ◽

Susceptibility Index ◽

Weather Events ◽

Education Levels ◽

Flood Maps

Abstract. The combination of human exposure, extreme weather events and lack of adaptation strategies to cope with flood related impacts can potentially increase losses not only on infrastructure but also on human lives. These impacts are usually difficult to quantify due to the lack of data and for this reason most of the studies developed at the national scale only include the main characteristics that define the societal or individual predisposition to be affected, resist, adapt or recover, when exposed to a flood. The main objective of this work was to develop a flood social susceptibility index for the continental Portuguese territory based on the most representative variables able to characterize different influencing factors. This index is part of the national vulnerability index developed in the scope of Flood Maps in Climate Change Scenarios (CIRAC) project, supported by the Portuguese Association of Insurers (APS). The main results showed that the proposed index correctly identified populations more socially susceptible to floods, mostly concentrated in rural inland areas with lower income and education levels, when compared with the coastal region between Viana do Castelo and Setúbal.

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Spatial Prediction of Future Flood Risk: An Approach to the Effects of Climate Change

Geosciences ◽

10.3390/geosciences11010025 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 25

Author(s):

Mohammadtaghi Avand ◽

Hamid Reza Moradi ◽

Mehdi Ramazanzadeh Lasboyee

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Prediction ◽

Flood Management ◽

Management Program ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ann Model ◽

Probability Map ◽

Flood Susceptibility ◽

Flood Probability ◽

Model Training

Preparation of a flood probability map serves as the first step in a flood management program. This research develops a probability flood map for floods resulting from climate change in the future. Two models of Flexible Discrimination Analysis (FDA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were used. Two optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios were considered for mapping future rainfall. Moreover, to produce probability flood occurrence maps, 263 locations of past flood events were used as dependent variables. The number of 13 factors conditioning floods was taken as independent variables in modeling. Of the total 263 flood locations, 80% (210 locations) and 20% (53 locations) were considered model training and validation. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and other statistical criteria were used to validate the models. Based on assessments of the validated models, FDA, with a ROC-AUC = 0.918, standard error (SE = 0.038), and an accuracy of 0.86% compared to the ANN model with a ROC-AUC = 0.897, has the highest accuracy in preparing the flood probability map in the study area. The modeling results also showed that the factors of distance from the River, altitude, slope, and rainfall have the greatest impact on floods in the study area. Both models’ future flood susceptibility maps showed that the highest area is related to the very low class. The lowest area is related to the high class.

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The neurophysiology of ketamine: an integrative review

Reviews in the Neurosciences ◽

10.1515/revneuro-2019-0090 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 31 (5) ◽

pp. 457-503

Author(s):

Rebecca McMillan ◽

Suresh D. Muthukumaraswamy

Keyword(s):

Spatial Scales ◽

Integrative Review ◽

Acute Effects ◽

Future Work

AbstractThe drug ketamine has been extensively studied due to its use in anaesthesia, as a model of psychosis and, most recently, its antidepressant properties. Understanding the physiology of ketamine is complex due to its rich pharmacology with multiple potential sites at clinically relevant doses. In this review of the neurophysiology of ketamine, we focus on the acute effects of ketamine in the resting brain. We ascend through spatial scales starting with a complete review of the pharmacology of ketamine and then cover its effects on in vitro and in vivo electrophysiology. We then summarise and critically evaluate studies using EEG/MEG and neuroimaging measures (MRI and PET), integrating across scales where possible. While a complicated and, at times, confusing picture of ketamine’s effects are revealed, we stress that much of this might be caused by use of different species, doses, and analytical methodologies and suggest strategies that future work could use to answer these problems.

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Integrated Framework for Detecting the Areas Prone to Flooding Generated by Flash-Floods in Small River Catchments

Water ◽

10.3390/w13060758 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (6) ◽

pp. 758 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Romulus Costache ◽

Alina Barbulescu ◽

Quoc Bao Pham

Keyword(s):

Analytical Hierarchy Process ◽

Process Model ◽

Buffer Zone ◽

Training Sample ◽

Flash Floods ◽

Operating Characteristics ◽

Conditioning Factors ◽

Flood Susceptibility ◽

Hierarchy Process ◽

Very High

In the present study, the susceptibility to flash-floods and flooding was studied across the Izvorul Dorului River basin in Romania. In the first phase, three ensemble models were used to determine the susceptibility to flash-floods. These models were generated by a combination of three statistical bivariate methods, namely frequency ratio (FR), weights of evidence (WOE), and statistical index (SI), with fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). The result obtained from the application of the FAHP-WOE model had the best performance highlighted by an Area Under Curve—Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (AUC-ROC) value of 0.837 for the training sample and another of 0.79 for the validation sample. Furthermore, the results offered by FAHP-WOE were weighted on the river network level using the flow accumulation method, through which the valleys with a medium, high, and very high torrential susceptibility were identified. Based on these valleys’ locations, the susceptibility to floods was estimated. Thus, in the first stage, a buffer zone of 200 m was delimited around the identified valleys along which the floods could occur. Once the buffer zone was established, ten flood conditioning factors were used to determine the flood susceptibility through the analytical hierarchy process model. Approximately 25% of the total delimited area had a high and very high flood susceptibility.

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Resolving ice cloud optical thickness biases between CALIOP and MODIS using infrared retrievals

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-16-5075-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 16 (8) ◽

pp. 5075-5090 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

Robert E. Holz ◽

Steven Platnick ◽

Kerry Meyer ◽

Mark Vaughan ◽

Andrew Heidinger ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Optical Thickness ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Radiative Properties ◽

Radiation Balance ◽

Data Set ◽

Mean Values ◽

Ice Cloud ◽

Lidar Ratio ◽

Cloud Optical Thickness ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Despite its importance as one of the key radiative properties that determines the impact of upper tropospheric clouds on the radiation balance, ice cloud optical thickness (IOT) has proven to be one of the more challenging properties to retrieve from space-based remote sensing measurements. In particular, optically thin upper tropospheric ice clouds (cirrus) have been especially challenging due to their tenuous nature, extensive spatial scales, and complex particle shapes and light-scattering characteristics. The lack of independent validation motivates the investigation presented in this paper, wherein systematic biases between MODIS Collection 5 (C5) and CALIOP Version 3 (V3) unconstrained retrievals of tenuous IOT (< 3) are examined using a month of collocated A-Train observations. An initial comparison revealed a factor of 2 bias between the MODIS and CALIOP IOT retrievals. This bias is investigated using an infrared (IR) radiative closure approach that compares both products with MODIS IR cirrus retrievals developed for this assessment. The analysis finds that both the MODIS C5 and the unconstrained CALIOP V3 retrievals are biased (high and low, respectively) relative to the IR IOT retrievals. Based on this finding, the MODIS and CALIOP algorithms are investigated with the goal of explaining and minimizing the biases relative to the IR. For MODIS we find that the assumed ice single-scattering properties used for the C5 retrievals are not consistent with the mean IR COT distribution. The C5 ice scattering database results in the asymmetry parameter (g) varying as a function of effective radius with mean values that are too large. The MODIS retrievals have been brought into agreement with the IR by adopting a new ice scattering model for Collection 6 (C6) consisting of a modified gamma distribution comprised of a single habit (severely roughened aggregated columns); the C6 ice cloud optical property models have a constant g ≈ 0.75 in the mid-visible spectrum, 5–15 % smaller than C5. For CALIOP, the assumed lidar ratio for unconstrained retrievals is fixed at 25 sr for the V3 data products. This value is found to be inconsistent with the constrained (predominantly nighttime) CALIOP retrievals. An experimental data set was produced using a modified lidar ratio of 32 sr for the unconstrained retrievals (an increase of 28 %), selected to provide consistency with the constrained V3 results. These modifications greatly improve the agreement with the IR and provide consistency between the MODIS and CALIOP products. Based on these results the recently released MODIS C6 optical products use the single-habit distribution given above, while the upcoming CALIOP V4 unconstrained algorithm will use higher lidar ratios for unconstrained retrievals.

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Assessment of flash floods taking into account climate change scenarios in the Llobregat River basin

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-13-3145-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (12) ◽

pp. 3145-3156 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

M. Velasco ◽

P. A. Versini ◽

A. Cabello ◽

A. Barrera-Escoda

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Flash Flood ◽

Flash Floods ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Whole Process ◽

The Future ◽

Peak Over Threshold ◽

Llobregat River

Abstract. Global change may imply important changes in the future occurrence and intensity of extreme events. Climate scenarios characterizing these plausible changes were previously obtained for the Llobregat River basin (NE Spain). This paper presents the implementation of these scenarios in the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) hydrological model. Then, the expected changes in terms of flash flood occurrence and intensity are assessed for two different sub-basins: the Alt Llobregat and the Anoia (Llobregat River basin). The assessment of future flash floods has been done in terms of the intensity and occurrence of extreme events, using a peak over threshold (POT) analysis. For these two sub-basins, most of the simulated scenarios present an increase of the intensity of the peak discharge values. On the other hand, the future occurrence follows different trends in the two sub-basins: an increase is observed in Alt Llobregat but a decrease occurs in Anoia. Despite the uncertainties that appear in the whole process, the results obtained can shed some light on how future flash floods events may occur.

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