scholarly journals Estimation of insurance related losses resulting from coastal flooding in France

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 2811-2846
Author(s):  
J. P. Naulin ◽  
D. Moncoulon ◽  
S. Le Roy ◽  
R. Pedreros ◽  
D. Idier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Water ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Vulnerability Model ◽  
Flood Model ◽  
Flood Period ◽  
Insured Losses ◽  
Storm Surge Event ◽  
Combining Information

Abstract. A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. The deterministic part of the model aims at identifying the potentially flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This deterministic component is a combination of three models: a hazard model, a vulnerability model and a damage model. The first model uses the PREVIMER system to estimate the water level along the coast. A storage-cell flood model propagates these water levels over the land and thus determines the probable inundated areas. The vulnerability model, for its part, is derived from the insurance schedules and claims database; combining information such as risk type, class of business and insured values. The outcome of the vulnerability and hazard models are then combined with the damage model to estimate the event damage and potential insured losses. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the magnitude of the known losses related to the flood caused by the Xynthia storm. However, it also appears very sensitive to the water height estimated during the flood period, conditioned by the junction between sea water levels and coastal topography for which the accuracy is still limited in the system.

scholarly journals Estimation of insurance-related losses resulting from coastal flooding in France

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 195-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Naulin ◽  
D. Moncoulon ◽  
S. Le Roy ◽  
R. Pedreros ◽  
D. Idier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Damage Model ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Simultaneous Occurrence ◽  
Vulnerability Model ◽  
Flood Period ◽  
Insured Losses ◽  
Storm Surge Event ◽  
Combining Information

Abstract. A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. The deterministic part of the model aims at identifying the potentially flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This deterministic component is a combination of three models: a hazard model, a vulnerability model, and a damage model. The first model uses the PREVIMER system to estimate the water level resulting from the simultaneous occurrence of a high tide and a surge caused by a meteorological event along the coast. A storage-cell flood model propagates these water levels over the land and thus determines the probable inundated areas. The vulnerability model, for its part, is derived from the insurance schedules and claims database, combining information such as risk type, class of business, and insured values. The outcome of the vulnerability and hazard models are then combined with the damage model to estimate the event damage and potential insured losses. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the magnitude of the known losses related to the flood caused by the Xynthia storm. However, it also appears very sensitive to the water height estimated during the flood period, conditioned by the junction between seawater levels and coastal topography, the accuracy for which is still limited by the amount of information in the system.

scholarly journals Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

Vegetation, hydrology, and development of a coastal mire in Hokkaido, Japan, affected by flooding and tephra deposition

2001 ◽  
Vol 79 (3) ◽  
pp. 341-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Hotes ◽  
Peter Poschlod ◽  
Hiroshige Sakai ◽  
Takashi Inoue
Keyword(s):  
Sea Water ◽  
Ionic Composition ◽  
Plant Macrofossils ◽  
Vegetation Pattern ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Myrica Gale ◽  
Mineral Deposition ◽  
Volcanic Ejecta ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
Flooding Events

Mires in coastal lowlands in Hokkaido, northern Japan, have repeatedly been affected by flooding events and tephra (aerially transported volcanic ejecta) deposition during their development. Vegetation, hydrology, and stratigraphy of Kiritappu Mire in eastern Hokkaido were investigated along two transects and are discussed in relation to disturbance by mineral deposition. The vegetation pattern showed little relation to past geologic events. Five plant communities, two of which (A and C) could be further divided into subgroups, were distinguished (A, Alnus japonica - Spiraea salicifolia community; B, Sasa chartacea community; C, Myrica gale var. tomentosa - Sphagnum fuscum community; D, Carex lyngbyei community; E, Carex subspathacea - Aster tripolium community). Water levels, pH, electric conductivity, and ionic composition of groundwater and surface water were measured in communities A-C. Mean water levels were similar in communities A and C; in community B, it was lower. The pH was higher in community A than in communities B and C. Ion concentrations were influenced by sea water at some sites. Plant macrofossils and ash contents of 31 cores were analysed. Sedge roots were the dominant peat component, often mixed with remains of Phragmites australis, Sphagnum spp., and Polytrichum juniperinum var. strictum. Ash contents were high, and up to nine different mineral layers consisting of tephra, sand, silt, and clay were detected. In some cases, mineral deposition induced changes in the macrofossil composition of the peat. However, in a greater number of cases, no changes in the macrofossil composition were found at the mineral layers, and most shifts were not related to mineral deposition.Key words: mire, vegetation, hydrology, disturbance, flooding, tephra.

Osmoregulation by the Prenatal Spiny Dogfish, Squalus Acanthias

1982 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 295-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID H. EVANS ◽  
AIMO OIKARI ◽  
GREGG A. KORMANIK ◽  
LEIGH MANSBERGER
Keyword(s):  
Sea Water ◽  
Electrical Potential ◽  
Fluid Flows ◽  
Maternal Plasma ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Squalus Acanthias ◽  
Rectal Gland ◽  
Na Efflux ◽  
Uterine Fluid ◽  
Electrochemical Equilibrium

Late in gestation of the ovoviviparous dogfish, Squalus acanthias, the uterine fluids are essentially sea water, while the plasma of the ‘pup’ is similar to that of the female, i.e. isotonic to sea water/uterine fluids, with significantly less Na and Cl, and substantial concentrations of urea. Early ‘candle’ embryos are bathed in ‘candle’ fluid and uterine fluid which contains Na and Cl concentrations intermediate between maternal plasma and sea water levels, K concentrations above sea water levels, and urea concentrations slightly below those found in the maternal plasma. Both fluids are isotonic to sea water and maternal plasma. Incubation of ‘candles’ with associated embryos in sea water for 4–6 days resulted in significant increases in ‘candle’ fluid Na and Cl concentrations, and a decline in ‘candle’ fluid K and urea levels. However, under these conditions, the ‘candle’ embryo is still able to regulate plasma Na, Cl, K and urea concentrations. The efflux of Cl is approximately 5 times the efflux of Na from the prenatal ‘pup’; however, both effluxes are equivalent to those described for adult elasmobranchs. The transepithelial electrical potential (TEP) across the ‘pup’ is −4.4 mV in sea water, which indicates that both Na and Cl are maintained out of electrochemical equilibrium. Cloacal fluid flows vary diurnally with Na and Cl concentrations significantly above those of the plasma. Rectal gland efflux can account for 50–100% of the Na efflux, but less than 25% of the Cl efflux. Removal of the rectal gland resulted in an increase in plasma Na and Cl concentrations 48 or 72 h after the operation, but in both cases it appears that some extra rectal gland excretory system balances at least some of the net influx of both salts. Our results demonstrate that even very young ‘candle’ embryos of S. acanthias are capable of osmoregulation, and that older embryos (‘pups') osmoregulate against sea water intra-utero and display the major hallmarks of elasmobranch osmoregulation, including a reduced ionic permeability and a functional rectal gland for net extrusion of NaCl. In addition, it appears that other pathways exist for salt extrusion in addition to the rectal gland. Note:

scholarly journals The role of the reef–dune system in coastal protection in Puerto Morelos (Mexico)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1247-1260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma L. Franklin ◽  
Alec Torres-Freyermuth ◽  
Gabriela Medellin ◽  
María Eugenia Allende-Arandia ◽  
Christian M. Appendini
Keyword(s):  
Sand Dunes ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Dune System ◽  
Fore Reef ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Reef Environments ◽  
Storm Impact

Abstract. Reefs and sand dunes are critical morphological features providing natural coastal protection. Reefs dissipate around 90 % of the incident wave energy through wave breaking, whereas sand dunes provide the final natural barrier against coastal flooding. The storm impact on coastal areas with these features depends on the relative elevation of the extreme water levels with respect to the sand dune morphology. However, despite the importance of barrier reefs and dunes in coastal protection, poor management practices have degraded these ecosystems, increasing their vulnerability to coastal flooding. The present study aims to theoretically investigate the role of the reef–dune system in coastal protection under current climatic conditions at Puerto Morelos, located in the Mexican Caribbean Sea, using a widely validated nonlinear non-hydrostatic numerical model (SWASH). Wave hindcast information, tidal level, and a measured beach profile of the reef–dune system in Puerto Morelos are employed to estimate extreme runup and the storm impact scale for current and theoretical scenarios. The numerical results show the importance of including the storm surge when predicting extreme water levels and also show that ecosystem degradation has important implications for coastal protection against storms with return periods of less than 10 years. The latter highlights the importance of conservation of the system as a mitigation measure to decrease coastal vulnerability and infrastructure losses in coastal areas in the short to medium term. Furthermore, the results are used to evaluate the applicability of runup parameterisations for beaches to reef environments. Numerical analysis of runup dynamics suggests that runup parameterisations for reef environments can be improved by including the fore reef slope. Therefore, future research to develop runup parameterisations incorporating reef geometry features (e.g. reef crest elevation, reef lagoon width, fore reef slope) is warranted.

scholarly journals A NEW STORM IMPACT MATRIX COMBINING BOTH COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION HAZARDS

2020 ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Christopher Leaman ◽  
Mitchell Harley ◽  
Kristen Splinter ◽  
Mandi Thran ◽  
Michael Kinsela ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Energy ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Windows Of Opportunity ◽  
Erosion Hazards ◽  
Storm Impact

Coastal zones are often threatened by storms that elevate water levels and increase the wave energy impacting the shoreline. These storm conditions result in coastal flooding and erosion hazards for communities, threatening lives, properties and infrastructure. Coastal impact Early Warning Systems (EWSs) are currently used to alert authorities of potential impacts prior to advancing storms. Effective EWSs provide important windows of opportunity to undertake mitigating actions to minimize the damage caused by a storm.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/-U6uEHfLizA

Dead Sea Water Levels Analysis Using Artificial Neural Networks and Firefly Algorithm

2022 ◽  
pp. 1118-1129
Author(s):  
Nawaf N. Hamadneh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Firefly Algorithm ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Dead ◽  
Predicted Values

In this study, the performance of adaptive multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) for predicting the Dead Sea water level is discussed. Firefly Algorithm (FFA), as an optimization algorithm is used for training the neural networks. To propose the MLPNN-FFA model, Dead Sea water levels over the period 1810–2005 are applied to train MLPNN. Statistical tests evaluate the accuracy of the hybrid MLPNN-FFA model. The predicted values of the proposed model were compared with the results obtained by another method. The results reveal that the artificial neural network (ANN) models exhibit high accuracy and reliability for the prediction of the Dead Sea water levels. The results also reveal that the Dead Sea water level would be around -450 until 2050.

scholarly journals An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

Ocean Science ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 369-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sterl ◽  
H. van den Brink ◽  
H. de Vries ◽  
R. Haarsma ◽  
E. van Meijgaard
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
The North Sea

Abstract. The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

scholarly journals The Role of Mean Sea Level Annual Cycle on Extreme Water Levels Along European Coastline

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3419
Author(s):  
Tomás Fernández-Montblanc ◽  
Jesús Gómez-Enri ◽  
Paolo Ciavola
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

The knowledge of extreme total water levels (ETWLs) and the derived impact, coastal flooding and erosion, is crucial to face the present and future challenges exacerbated in European densely populated coastal areas. Based on 24 years (1993–2016) of multimission radar altimetry, this paper investigates the contribution of each water level component: tide, surge and annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (MMSL) to the ETWLs. It focuses on the contribution of the annual variation of MMSL in the coastal flooding extreme events registered in a European database. In microtidal areas (Black, Baltic and Mediterranean Sea), the MMSL contribution is mostly larger than tide, and it can be at the same order of magnitude of the surge. In meso and macrotidal areas, the MMSL contribution is <20% of the total water level, but larger (>30%) in the North Sea. No correlation was observed between the average annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (AMMSL) and coastal flooding extreme events (CFEEs) along the European coastal line. Positive correlations of the component variance of MMSL with the relative frequency of CFEEs extend to the Central Mediterranean (r = 0.59), North Sea (r = 0.60) and Baltic Sea (r = 0.75). In the case of positive MMSL anomalies, the correlation expands to the Bay of Biscay and northern North Atlantic (at >90% of statistical significance). The understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of a combination of all the components of the ETWLs shall improve the preparedness and coastal adaptation measures to reduce the impact of coastal flooding.

scholarly journals High accuracy coastal flood mapping for Norway using LiDAR data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Breili ◽  
Matthew James Ross Simpson ◽  
Erlend Klokkervold ◽  
Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Elevation Data

Abstract. Using new high accuracy Light Detection and Ranging elevation data we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Thus far, we have mapped ~ 80 % of the coast, for which we currently have data of sufficient accuracy to perform our analysis. Although Norway is generally at low risk from sea-level rise largely owing to its steep topography, the maps presented here show that on local scales, many parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. There is a considerable amount of infrastructure at risk along the relatively long and complicated coastline. Nationwide we identify a total area of 400 km2, 105,000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a 200 year storm-surge event at present. These numbers will increase to 610 km2, 137,000, and 1340 km with projected sea-level rise to 2090 (95th percentile of RCP8.5 as recommended in planning). We find that some of our results are likely biased high owing to erroneous mapping (at least for lower water levels close to the tidal datum which delineates the coastline). A comparison of control points from different terrain types indicates that the elevation model has a root mean square error of 0.26 m and is the largest source of uncertainty in our mapping method. The coastal flooding maps and associated statistics are freely available, and alongside the development of coastal climate services, will help communicate the risks of sea-level rise and storm surge to stakeholders. This will in turn aid coastal management and climate adaption work in Norway.

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