A study of long-term climate change in a simple seasonal nonlinear climate model

Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to the deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. Central Asian endorheic basins are among the most affected regions through both climate and human impacts. Here, we used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia (CA), for the period of 1986 to 2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, short-term hydrometeorological network observations, gridded climate datasets (CRU) and global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA Interim), we have evaluated the impacts of historical climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. We also discuss the future based on regional climate model projections. We attribute the overall decline of BNNP lakes to long-term deficit of water balance with lake evaporation loss exceeding precipitation inputs. Direct anthropogenic water abstraction has a minor importance in water balance. However, the changes in watersheds caused by the expansion of human settlements and roads disrupting water drainage may play a more significant role in lake water storage decline. More precise water resources assessment at the local scale will be facilitated by further development of freely available higher spatial resolution remote sensing products. In addition, the results of this work can be used for the development of lake/reservoir evaporation models driven by remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data without the direct use of ground observations.

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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 9 (9) ◽

pp. 3461-3482 ◽

Cited By ~ 251

Author(s):

Brian C. O'Neill ◽

Claudia Tebaldi ◽

Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽

Veronika Eyring ◽

Pierre Friedlingstein ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

21St Century ◽

Integrated Assessment ◽

Climate Model ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Wide Range ◽

Scenario Model ◽

Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

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Space-based geoengineering: Challenges and requirements

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part C Journal of Mechanical Engineering Science ◽

10.1243/09544062jmes1439 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 224 (3) ◽

pp. 571-580 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

C R McInnes

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Model ◽

Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽

Complex Solution ◽

Lagrange Point ◽

Simple Climate Model ◽

Earth’S Climate

The prospect of engineering the Earth's climate (geoengineering) raises a multitude of issues associated with climatology, engineering on macroscopic scales, and indeed the ethics of such ventures. Depending on personal views, such large-scale engineering is either an obvious necessity for the deep future, or yet another example of human conceit. In this article a simple climate model will be used to estimate requirements for engineering the Earth's climate, principally using space-based geoengineering. Active cooling of the climate to mitigate anthropogenic climate change due to a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration in the Earth's atmosphere is considered. This representative scenario will allow the scale of the engineering challenge to be determined. It will be argued that simple occulting discs at the interior Lagrange point may represent a less complex solution than concepts for highly engineered refracting discs proposed recently. While engineering on macroscopic scales can appear formidable, emerging capabilities may allow such ventures to be seriously considered in the long term. This article is not an exhaustive review of geoengineering, but aims to provide a foretaste of the future opportunities, challenges, and requirements for space-based geoengineering ventures.

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Uncertainty Quantification in Multi-Model Ensembles

10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.707 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Benjamin Mark Sanderson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Uncertainty Quantification ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Initial Condition ◽

Model Errors ◽

Model Framework ◽

Validation Data ◽

Model Ensembles

Long-term planning for many sectors of society—including infrastructure, human health, agriculture, food security, water supply, insurance, conflict, and migration—requires an assessment of the range of possible futures which the planet might experience. Unlike short-term forecasts for which validation data exists for comparing forecast to observation, long-term forecasts have almost no validation data. As a result, researchers must rely on supporting evidence to make their projections. A review of methods for quantifying the uncertainty of climate predictions is given. The primary tool for quantifying these uncertainties are climate models, which attempt to model all the relevant processes that are important in climate change. However, neither the construction nor calibration of climate models is perfect, and therefore the uncertainties due to model errors must also be taken into account in the uncertainty quantification.Typically, prediction uncertainty is quantified by generating ensembles of solutions from climate models to span possible futures. For instance, initial condition uncertainty is quantified by generating an ensemble of initial states that are consistent with available observations and then integrating the climate model starting from each initial condition. A climate model is itself subject to uncertain choices in modeling certain physical processes. Some of these choices can be sampled using so-called perturbed physics ensembles, whereby uncertain parameters or structural switches are perturbed within a single climate model framework. For a variety of reasons, there is a strong reliance on so-called ensembles of opportunity, which are multi-model ensembles (MMEs) formed by collecting predictions from different climate modeling centers, each using a potentially different framework to represent relevant processes for climate change. The most extensive collection of these MMEs is associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). However, the component models have biases, simplifications, and interdependencies that must be taken into account when making formal risk assessments. Techniques and concepts for integrating model projections in MMEs are reviewed, including differing paradigms of ensembles and how they relate to observations and reality. Aspects of these conceptual issues then inform the more practical matters of how to combine and weight model projections to best represent the uncertainties associated with projected climate change.

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Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11174764 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (17) ◽

pp. 4764 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Anna Sperotto ◽

Josè Luis Molina ◽

Silvia Torresan ◽

Andrea Critto ◽

Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Bayesian Networks ◽

Climate Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Large Variability ◽

Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

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Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal, Suffolk, UK

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-3-4059-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 3 (6) ◽

pp. 4059-4094

Author(s):

J. Armstrong ◽

R. Wilby ◽

R. J. Nicholls

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Stakeholder Engagement ◽

Online Survey ◽

Climate Model ◽

Economic Knowledge ◽

Framework Analysis ◽

Further Development

Abstract. This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: Scenario-Led (SL), Vulnerability-Led (VL) and Decision–Centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

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Simulating the impact of future climate change on runoff processes in selected catchments of Slovakia

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5074 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Roman Výleta ◽

Milica Aleksić ◽

Patrik Sleziak ◽

Kamila Hlavcova

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Model ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Time Horizons ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The future development of the runoff conditions, as a consequence of climate change, is of great interest for water managers. Information about the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime is needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection.The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on the runoff regime in five selected catchments located in the territory of Slovakia. Changes in climatic characteristics (i.e., precipitation and air temperature) for future time horizons were prepared by a regional climate model KNMI using the A1B emission scenario. The selected climatic scenario predicts a general increase in air temperature and precipitation (higher in winter than in summer). For simulations of runoff under changed conditions, a lumped rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model) was used. This model belongs to a group of conceptual models and follows a structure of a widely used Swedish HBV model. The TUW model was calibrated for the period of 2011 &#8211; 2019. We assumed that this period would be similar (to recent/warmer climate) in terms of the average daily air temperatures and daily precipitation totals. The future changes in runoff due to climate change were evaluated by comparing the simulated long-term mean monthly runoff for the current state (1981-2010) and modelled scenarios in three time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). The results indicate that changes in the long-term runoff seasonality and extremality of hydrological cycle could be expected in the future. The runoff should increase in winter months compared to the reference period. This increase is probably related to a rise in temperature and anticipated snowmelt. Conversely, during the summer periods, a decrease in the long-term runoff could be assumed. According to modelling, these changes will be more pronounced in the later time horizons.It should be noted that the results of the simulation are dependent on the availability of the inputs, the hydrological/climate model used, the schematization of the simulated processes, etc. Therefore, they need to be interpreted with a sufficient degree of caution

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Understanding Recent Stratospheric Climate Change

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli2482.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 22 (8) ◽

pp. 1934-1943 ◽

Cited By ~ 59

Author(s):

David W. J. Thompson ◽

Susan Solomon

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Lower Stratosphere ◽

Climate Model ◽

Longwave Radiation ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Stratospheric Temperature ◽

Ozone Trends ◽

Global Mean

Abstract The long-term, global-mean cooling of the lower stratosphere stems from two downward steps in temperature, both of which are coincident with the cessation of transient warming after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo. Previous attribution studies reveal that the long-term cooling is linked to ozone trends, and modeling studies driven by a range of known forcings suggest that the steps reflect the superposition of the long-term cooling with transient variability in upwelling longwave radiation from the troposphere. However, the long-term cooling of the lower stratosphere is evident at all latitudes despite the fact that chemical ozone losses are thought to be greatest at middle and polar latitudes. Further, the ozone concentrations used in such studies are based on either 1) smooth mathematical functions fit to sparsely sampled observations that are unavailable during postvolcanic periods or 2) calculations by a coupled chemistry–climate model. Here the authors provide observational analyses that yield new insight into three key aspects of recent stratospheric climate change. First, evidence is provided that shows the unusual steplike behavior of global-mean stratospheric temperatures is dependent not only upon the trend but also on the temporal variability in global-mean ozone immediately following volcanic eruptions. Second, the authors argue that the warming/cooling pattern in global-mean temperatures following major volcanic eruptions is consistent with the competing radiative and chemical effects of volcanic eruptions on stratospheric temperature and ozone. Third, it is revealed that the contrasting latitudinal structures of recent stratospheric temperature and ozone trends are consistent with large-scale increases in the stratospheric overturning Brewer–Dobson circulation.

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Local effects of global climate change on the urban drainage system of Hamburg

Water Science & Technology ◽

10.2166/wst.2013.320 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 68 (5) ◽

pp. 1107-1113 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Klaus Krieger ◽

Andreas Kuchenbecker ◽

Nina Hüffmeyer ◽

Hans-Reinhard Verworn

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Planning Process ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Drainage System ◽

Primary Objective ◽

Combined Sewer Overflows ◽

Sewer Network

The Hamburg Water Group owns and operates a sewer network with a total length of more than 5,700 km. There has been increasing attention paid to the possible impacts of predicted changes in precipitation patterns on the sewer network infrastructure. The primary objective of the work presented in this paper is an estimation of the hydraulic impacts of climate change on the Hamburg drainage system. As a first step, simulated rainfalls based on the regional climate model REMO were compared and validated with long-term precipitation measurements. In the second step, the hydraulic effects on the sewer network of Hamburg have been analyzed based on simulated long-term rainfall series for the period of 2000–2100. Simulation results show a significant increase in combined sewer overflows by 50% as well as an increase in surcharges of storm sewer manholes. However, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty resulting from model uncertainty and unknown development of future greenhouse gas emissions. So far, there seems to be no sound basis for the implementation of an overall climate factor for sewer dimensioning for the Hamburg region. Nevertheless, possible effects of climate change should be taken into account within the planning process for major sewer extensions or modifications.

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National scale climate change impact assessment – investigating long-term variations in the climate change signal for groundwater levels across geologies and aquifers

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4741 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ida Bjørnholt Karlsson ◽

Luc Taliesin Eisenbruchner ◽

Jacob Kidmose ◽

Anker Lajer Højberg

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Change Signal ◽

Special Focus ◽

Groundwater System ◽

Phreatic Surface ◽

Near Surface ◽

Marine Sand

The effect of climate change on groundwater system is still not extensively understood. Studies often focuses on changes in recharge to the groundwater system but rarely investigate the resulting impacts on hydraulic head levels especially the spatial distribution of the change across larger domains.Only few countries in the world have access to a detailed national hydrological model, and fewer still have done nationwide climate change assessments. This study applies a combination of the newest updated national hydrological model for the entire Denmark (the DK-model 2019, http://dk.vandmodel.dk/in-english/) and 20 climate model projections from the Euro-Cordex project (Jacob et al., 2014) for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenario (4 and 16 runs respectively). The climate dataset are bias-corrected for the Danish area using double Gamma distribution-based scaling for temperature and precipitation (Pasten-Zapata et al., 2019).This large dataset is used to evaluate the distribution of the magnitude and direction of changes with special focus on the phreatic surface and the main water-bearing groundwater layers for drinking water consumption in Denmark. The spatial variations in the near-surface impact signal across the entire country is also analyzed, as different Quaternary geology is represented from sandy layers in the west to moraine clay tills in the east and marine sand and clay to the north. The climate dataset is a successive time series from 1970ties to the end of the century and thus also enables an analysis of long-term changes in the state of the groundwater system and aquifers.&#160;&#160;&#160;Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., D&#233;qu&#233;, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kr&#246;ner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Regional Environmental Change, 14, 563-578, 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014.Pasten-Zapata, E., Sonnenborg, T. O., and Refsgaard, J. C.: Climate change: Sources of uncertainty in precipitation and temperature projections for Denmark, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Bulletin 43, e2019430102-2019430101-e2019430102-2019430106, https://doi.org/10.34194/GEUSB-201943-01-02 2019.&#160;

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