Estimation of Water Storage Changes in Small Endorheic Lakes in Northern Kazakhstan; The Effect of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Influences

Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to the deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. Central Asian endorheic basins are among the most affected regions through both climate and human impacts. Here, we used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia (CA), for the period of 1986 to 2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, short-term hydrometeorological network observations, gridded climate datasets (CRU) and global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA Interim), we have evaluated the impacts of historical climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. We also discuss the future based on regional climate model projections. We attribute the overall decline of BNNP lakes to long-term deficit of water balance with lake evaporation loss exceeding precipitation inputs. Direct anthropogenic water abstraction has a minor importance in water balance. However, the changes in watersheds caused by the expansion of human settlements and roads disrupting water drainage may play a more significant role in lake water storage decline. More precise water resources assessment at the local scale will be facilitated by further development of freely available higher spatial resolution remote sensing products. In addition, the results of this work can be used for the development of lake/reservoir evaporation models driven by remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data without the direct use of ground observations.

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Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11174764 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (17) ◽

pp. 4764 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Anna Sperotto ◽

Josè Luis Molina ◽

Silvia Torresan ◽

Andrea Critto ◽

Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Bayesian Networks ◽

Climate Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Large Variability ◽

Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

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Climate change and water resources management of Oran region

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2016.037 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 348-361

Author(s):

Rachid Bouklia-Hassane ◽

Djilali Yebdri ◽

Abdellatif El-Bari Tidjani

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Balance ◽

Methodological Approach ◽

Two Dimensions ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Southern Mediterranean ◽

Socioeconomic Dimension ◽

Oran Region

Our work aims to contribute to the literature on the prospective study of the water balance in the Oran region, a major southern Mediterranean metropolis, by considering the socioeconomic dimension of this region and the dynamic of its climate change through 2011–2030. These two dimensions are important for the analysis of future changes in water stress in the region because they affect both the demand and the supply of the water resources. Unlike other studies, our methodological approach is based on an explicit modeling of the socioeconomic evolution in the region as well as of the dynamic of climate change. For this, we used a time-series modeling framework to predict the effects of change in climate. In addition to the assessment of the effects of the socioeconomic and climate changes on the water balance of the region. Our results, based on simulations using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software, show that the current decoupling between the drinking sector from that of irrigation in the Oran region is not sustainable. Climate change will exacerbate this vulnerability. Only by integrating these two sectors, through a reuse of wastewater, can we consider the irrigation issue from a perspective of long-term sustainability in the region.

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Estimation of Long-Term River Discharge and Its Changes in Ungauged Watersheds in Pamir Plateau

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13204043 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (20) ◽

pp. 4043

Author(s):

Adilai Wufu ◽

Shengtian Yang ◽

Yun Chen ◽

Hezhen Lou ◽

Chaojun Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Remote Sensing ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Discharge ◽

Remote Sensing Data ◽

Balance Model ◽

Total Runoff ◽

Future Supply ◽

Peak Value

The Pamir Plateau is an extremely important water resource area for over 60 million people in Central Asia. With the increasingly significant response of water resources to climate change, timely hydrological predictions for the future supply are necessary. In the plateau, accessing and monitoring the glaciers and their melt outflow are challenging due to the harsh geographic environments. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) combined with remote sensing technologies offer great potential for providing information to improve water resources management and decision-making. In this study, we integrated UAV and satellite remote sensing data, and applied a water balance model to estimate monthly and annual river discharges for the ten river sections in the Eastern Pamir Plateau, China from 1999 to 2020. We found that the glacier area in the controlled basins of these sections has decreased by approximately 63% from 1999 to 2020. Basins with smaller glacier areas are more sensitive to climate change. The ten river sections are characterized by decreasing trends in monthly river discharge, with an average reduction of −21.05%. The annual variation of total runoff and glacial meltwater discharge is consistent with the monthly variation of discharge, and the average discharge from glacier meltwater accounts for 83% of the total runoff. We conclude that the overall decreasing trend of discharge is closely related to the recession of glaciers. Under the background of climate warming in the region, glaciers are no longer sufficient to support the increase in river discharge, which has passed its peak value and shows a decreasing trend.

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Reconstructing Terrestrial Water Storage Variations from 1980 to 2015 in the Beishan Area of China

Geofluids ◽

10.1155/2019/3874742 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2019 ◽

pp. 1-13 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Wenjie Yin ◽

Litang Hu ◽

Shin-Chan Han ◽

Menglin Zhang ◽

Yanguo Teng

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Water Balance ◽

Water Storage ◽

Balance Method ◽

Disposal Site ◽

Terrestrial Water Storage ◽

Water Balance Method ◽

Terrestrial Water ◽

Beishan Area

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is a key element in the global and continental water cycle. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has provided a highly valuable dataset, which allows the study of TWS over larger river basins worldwide. However, the lifetime of GRACE is too short to demonstrate long-term variability in TWS. In the Beishan area of northwestern China, which is selected as the most prospective site for high-level radioactive waste (HLRW) disposal, the assessment of long-term TWS changes is crucial to understand disposal safety. Monthly and annual TWS changes during the past 35 years are reconstructed using GRACE data, other remote sensing products, and the water balance method. Hydrological flux outputs from multisource remote sensing products are analyzed and compared to select appropriate data sources. The results show that a decreasing trend is found for GRACE-filtered and Center for Space Research (CSR) mascon solutions from 2003 to 2015, with slopes of −2.30 ± 0.52 and −1.52 ± 0.24 mm/year, respectively. TWS variations independently computed from the water balance method also show a similar decreasing trend with the GRACE observations, with a slope of −0.94 mm/year over the same period. Overall, the TWS anomalies in the Beishan area change seasonally within 10 mm and have been decreasing since 1980, keeping a desirable dry condition as a HLRW disposal site.

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Integrated hydrological modelling of surface water and groundwater under climate change: the case of the Mygdonia basin in Greece

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2019.011 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 1429-1454 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Dimitrios Malamataris ◽

Elpida Kolokytha ◽

Athanasios Loukas

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Climate Model ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Fully Integrated ◽

Natural Lakes ◽

Modelling System

Abstract Lakes Volvi and Koronia are located in the Mygdonia basin and constitute the second and fifth largest natural lakes in Greece, respectively. The lakes along with the Mygdonia basin aquifer have undergone severe quantitative and qualitative degradation, while Lake Koronia has been totally depleted in recent years. In this study, a fully integrated hydrological analysis of the Mygdonia basin for historical and future periods is carried out. Future climatic data were derived and analyzed from a Regional Climate Model, while the implications of climate change on the water balance of both lakes and the Mygdonia basin aquifer until 2100 were projected by developing a modelling system which includes coupled hydrological and hydraulic models, such as UTHBAL, MIKE SHE, MIKE HYDRO River and the MIKE HYDRO Basin. The results indicated that the precipitation is expected to decrease by 17%, the temperature to increase by 2.90 °C and as a result, the surface runoff is projected to decrease by 21% and the groundwater recharge to decrease by 38% in the Mygdonia basin at the end of the century. The above changes would have a direct negative impact on the Lakes Koronia and Volvi and the Mygdonia basin aquifer future water balance necessitating adaptation measures.

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Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Dynamics of Two Major Rivers of the Northern Lake Erie Basin in Canada

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10082897 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 2897 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Binbin Zhang ◽

Narayan Shrestha ◽

Prasad Daggupati ◽

Ramesh Rudra ◽

Rituraj Shukla ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Soil Water ◽

Lake Erie ◽

Climate Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Soil Water Storage ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Monthly Streamflow

This paper focuses on understanding the effects of projected climate change on streamflow dynamics of the Grand and Thames rivers of the Northern Lake Erie (NLE) basin. A soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model is developed, calibrated, and validated in a base-period. The model is able to simulate the monthly streamflow dynamics with ‘Good’ to ‘Very Good’ accuracy. The calibrated and validated model is then subjected with daily bias-corrected future climatic data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). Five bias-correction methods and their 12 combinations were evaluated using the Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd). Distribution mapping (DM) performed the best and was used for further analysis. Two future time-periods and two IPCC AR5 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are considered. Results showed marked temporal and spatial variability in precipitation (−37% to +63%) and temperature (−3 °C to +14 °C) changes, which are reflected in evapotranspiration (−52% to +412%) and soil water storage (−60% to +12%) changes, resulting in heterogeneity in streamflow (−77% to +170%) changes. On average, increases in winter (+11%), and decreases in spring (–33%), summer (−23%), and autumn (−15%) streamflow are expected in future. This is the first work of this kind in the NLE and such marked variability in water resources availability poses considerable challenges to water resources planners and managers.

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Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in Laguna del Sauce (Uruguay) Using the SWAT Model and Remote Sensing Data

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13102014 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (10) ◽

pp. 2014

Author(s):

Celina Aznarez ◽

Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽

Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽

Juan Pablo Pacheco ◽

Javier Senent-Aparicio

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Remote Sensing ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Water Resources ◽

Swat Model ◽

Remote Sensing Data ◽

Erosion Control ◽

Sensing Data ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

The Impact

Assessing how climate change will affect hydrological ecosystem services (HES) provision is necessary for long-term planning and requires local comprehensive climate information. In this study, we used SWAT to evaluate the impacts on four HES, natural hazard protection, erosion control regulation and water supply and flow regulation for the Laguna del Sauce catchment in Uruguay. We used downscaled CMIP-5 global climate models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 projections. We calibrated and validated our SWAT model for the periods 2005–2009 and 2010–2013 based on remote sensed ET data. Monthly NSE and R2 values for calibration and validation were 0.74, 0.64 and 0.79, 0.84, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change will likely negatively affect the water resources of the Laguna del Sauce catchment, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario. In all RCP scenarios, the catchment is likely to experience a wetting trend, higher temperatures, seasonality shifts and an increase in extreme precipitation events, particularly in frequency and magnitude. This will likely affect water quality provision through runoff and sediment yield inputs, reducing the erosion control HES and likely aggravating eutrophication. Although the amount of water will increase, changes to the hydrological cycle might jeopardize the stability of freshwater supplies and HES on which many people in the south-eastern region of Uruguay depend. Despite streamflow monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the uncertainty of model results, our findings provide valuable insights for water resources planning in the study area. Hence, water management and monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the potential negative climate change impacts on HES. The methodological approach presented here, based on satellite ET data can be replicated and adapted to any other place in the world since we employed open-access software and remote sensing data for all the phases of hydrological modelling and HES provision assessment.

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