scholarly journals Influence of anisotropy on velocity and age distribution at Scharffenbergbotnen blue ice area

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3059-3093 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Zwinger ◽  
M. Schäfer ◽  
C. Martín ◽  
J. C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Flow Law ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We use a full-Stokes thermo-mechanically coupled ice-flow model to study the dynamics of the glacier inside Scharffenbergbotnen valley, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The domain encompasses a high accumulation rate region and, downstream a sublimation-dominated bare ice ablation area. The ablation ice area is notable for having old ice at its surface since the vertical velocity is upwards, and horizontal velocities are almost stagnant there. We compare the model simulation with field observations of velocities and the age distribution of the surface ice. A satisfactory match with simulations using an isotropic flow law was not found because of too high horizontal velocities and too slow vertical ones. However, the existence of a pronounced ice fabric may explain the present day surface velocity distribution in the inner Scharffenbergbotnen blue ice area. Near absence of data on the temporal evolution of Scharffenbergbotnen since the Late Glacial Maximum necessitates exploration of the impact of anisotropy using prescribed ice fabrics: isotropic, single maximum, and linear variation with depth, in both two-dimensional and three dimensional flow models. The realistic velocity field simulated with a non-collinear orthotropic flow law, however produced surface ages in significant disagreement with the few reliable age measurements and suggests that the age field is not in a steady state and that the present distribution is a result of a flow reorganization at about 15 000 yr BP. In order to fully understand the surface age distribution a transient simulation starting from the Late Glacial Maximum including the correct initial conditions for geometry, age, fabric and temperature distribution would be needed. It is the first time that the importance of anisotropy has been demonstrated in the ice dynamics of a blue ice area. This is useful to understand ice flow in order to better interpret archives of ancient ice for paleoclimate research.

scholarly journals Influence of anisotropy on velocity and age distribution at Scharffenbergbotnen blue ice area

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 607-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Zwinger ◽  
M. Schäfer ◽  
C. Martín ◽  
J. C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Flow Law ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We use a full-Stokes thermo-mechanically coupled ice-flow model to study the dynamics of the glacier inside Scharffenbergbotnen valley, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The domain encompasses a high accumulation rate region and, downstream, a sublimation-dominated bare ice ablation area. The ablation ice area is notable for having old ice at its surface since the vertical velocity is upwards, and horizontal velocities are almost stagnant there. We compare the model simulation with field observations of velocities and the age distribution of the surface ice. No satisfactory match using an isotropic flow law could be found because of too high vertical velocities and much too high horizontal ones in simulations despite varying enhancement factor, geothermal heat flux and surface temperatures over large ranges. However, the existence of a pronounced ice fabric may explain the observed present-day surface velocity and mass balance distribution in the inner Scharffenbergbotnen blue ice area. Near absence of data on the temporal evolution of Scharffenbergbotnen since the Late Glacial Maximum necessitates exploration of the impact of anisotropy using prescribed ice fabrics: isotropic, single maximum, and linear variation with depth, in both two-dimensional and three-dimensional flow models. The realistic velocity field simulated with a noncollinear orthotropic flow law, however, produced surface ages in significant disagreement with the few reliable age measurements and suggests that the age field is not in a steady state and that the present distribution is a result of a flow reorganization at about 15 000 yr BP. In order to fully understand the surface age distribution, a transient simulation starting from the Late Glacial Maximum including the correct initial conditions for geometry, age, fabric and temperature distribution would be needed. This is the first time that the importance of anisotropy has been demonstrated in the ice dynamics of a blue ice area and demonstrates the need to understand ice flow in order to better interpret archives of ancient ice for paleoclimate research.

Ice flow localisation enhanced by composite ice rheology 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludovic Räss ◽  
Thibault Duretz
Keyword(s):  
Grain Size ◽  
Strain Rate ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Total Strain ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Creep Mechanisms ◽  
Size Evolution ◽  
Flow Law ◽  
Total Strain Rate

<p>Ice’s predominantly viscous rheology exhibits a significant temperature and strain-rate dependence, commonly captured as a single deformation mechanism by Glen's flow law. However, Glen’s power-law relationship may fail to capture accurate stress levels at low and elevated strain-rates ultimately leading to velocity over- and under-estimates, respectively. Alternative more complex flow laws such as Goldsby rheology combine various creep mechanisms better accounting for micro-scale observations resulting in enhanced localisation of ice flow at glacier scales and internal sliding.</p><p>The challenge in implementing Goldsby rheology arises with the need of computing an accurate partitioning of the total strain-rate among the active creep mechanisms. Some of these mechanisms exhibit grain-size evolution sensitivity potentially impacting the larger scale ice dynamics.</p><p>We here present a consistent way to compute the effective viscosity of the ice using Goldsby rheology for temperature and strain-rate ranges relevant to ice flow. We implement a local iteration procedure to ensure accurate implicit partitioning of the total strain-rate among the active creep mechanisms including grain-size evolution. We discuss the composite deformation maps and compare the results against Glen's flow law. We incorporate our implicit rheology solver into an implicit 2D thermo-mechanical ice flow solver to investigate localisation of ice flow over variable topography and in shear margin configurations. We quantify discrepancies  in surface velocity patterns when using Goldsby rheology instead of Glen's flow law.</p>

Modeling of the Russell glacier's basal conditions at seasonal time scale using the satellite observations of surface ice speed

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Derkacheva ◽  
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
Jeremie Mouginot
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
In Situ Measurements ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Surface Ice ◽  
The Impact

<p>Greenland’s future response to climate change will be determined partly by various phenomena controlling ice flow. For the land-terminating sectors, the water lubricating the glacier's base is considered as a major control on the ice motion. For instance, the seasonal modulations of water input induced by summer melt can cause glacier speed-up up to +200-300% compared to the winter mean. Thus, a comprehensive understanding of variations in the basal conditions, which are at the origin of the glacier flow fluctuations, plays a key role for the climate projections.</p><p>While the in-situ measurements stay a local and hard approach to investigate the basal conditions, ice flow modeling offers the possibility to invert for them over the large area based on observations of surface glacier speed and topography. During the last decade, the number of available satellite observations has increased significantly, allowing for far more frequent measurements of the glacier speed and precise reconstruction of the seasonal fluctuations. Here, we investigate the possibility of applying this satellite-derived time-series of surface ice velocity to reconstruct the annual behavior of the basal conditions with 2 weeks temporal resolution using an ice flow model.</p><p>The area of this study is Russell glacier located on the southwest coast of Greenland. A time series of surface velocity dataset was created by merging measurements from Sentinel-1&2 and Landsat-8, covering an area up to 100 km inland with 150 m/pix spatial resolution and 2-weeks temporal resolution (Derkacheva et al. 2020). The 3D Full-Stokes ice flow model Elmer/Ice is used to invert for the effective basal friction coefficient for each time step.  Usage of a friction law that has been derived for hard beds (Gagliardini et al., 2007) allows to constrain the variation of the basal effective pressure. Overall, the results from the model inversions give access to the evolution of the basal ice speed, friction, effective and water pressure, floatation fraction throughout a complete year. The results are compared with in-situ measurements in terms of absolute values and show a good agreement. The impact of the flow model setup, regularization, assumptions for the ice rheology, and the impact of noise in the speed data are also examined and compared with in-situ measurements.</p>

scholarly journals Ice flow modelling to constrain the surface mass balance and ice discharge of San Rafael Glacier, Northern Patagonia Icefield

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (246) ◽  
pp. 568-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
GABRIELA COLLAO-BARRIOS ◽  
FABIEN GILLET-CHAULET ◽  
VINCENT FAVIER ◽  
GINO CASASSA ◽  
ETIENNE BERTHIER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Shear Stresses ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Northern Patagonia ◽  
San Rafael

ABSTRACTWe simulate the ice dynamics of the San Rafael Glacier (SRG) in the Northern Patagonia Icefield (46.7°S, 73.5°W), using glacier geometry obtained by airborne gravity measurements. The full-Stokes ice flow model (Elmer/Ice) is initialized using an inverse method to infer the basal friction coefficient from a satellite-derived surface velocity mosaic. The high surface velocities (7.6 km a−1) near the glacier front are explained by low basal shear stresses (<25 kPa). The modelling results suggest that 98% of the surface velocities are due to basal sliding in the fast-flowing glacier tongue (>1 km a−1). We force the model using different surface mass-balance scenarios taken or adapted from previous studies and geodetic elevation changes between 2000 and 2012. Our results suggest that previous estimates of average surface mass balance over the entire glacier (Ḃ) were likely too high, mainly due to an overestimation in the accumulation area. We propose that most of SRG imbalance is due to the large ice discharge (−0.83 ± 0.08 Gt a−1) and a slightly positiveḂ(0.08 ± 0.06 Gt a−1). The committed mass-loss estimate over the next century is −0.34 ± 0.03 Gt a−1. This study demonstrates that surface mass-balance estimates and glacier wastage projections can be improved using a physically based ice flow model.

scholarly journals Modelling last glacial cycle ice dynamics in the Alps

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 3265-3285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Seguinot ◽  
Susan Ivy-Ochs ◽  
Guillaume Jouvet ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Martin Funk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Alps

Abstract. The European Alps, the cradle of pioneering glacial studies, are one of the regions where geological markers of past glaciations are most abundant and well-studied. Such conditions make the region ideal for testing numerical glacier models based on simplified ice flow physics against field-based reconstructions and vice versa. Here, we use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to model the entire last glacial cycle (120–0 ka) in the Alps, using horizontal resolutions of 2 and 1 km. Climate forcing is derived using two sources: present-day climate data from WorldClim and the ERA-Interim reanalysis; time-dependent temperature offsets from multiple palaeo-climate proxies. Among the latter, only the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) ice core record yields glaciation during marine oxygen isotope stages 4 (69–62 ka) and 2 (34–18 ka). This is spatially and temporally consistent with the geological reconstructions, while the other records used result in excessive early glacial cycle ice cover and a late Last Glacial Maximum. Despite the low variability of this Antarctic-based climate forcing, our simulation depicts a highly dynamic ice sheet, showing that Alpine glaciers may have advanced many times over the foreland during the last glacial cycle. Ice flow patterns during peak glaciation are largely governed by subglacial topography but include occasional transfluences through the mountain passes. Modelled maximum ice surface is on average 861 m higher than observed trimline elevations in the upper Rhône Valley, yet our simulation predicts little erosion at high elevation due to cold-based ice. Finally, despite the uniform climate forcing, differencesin glacier catchment hypsometry produce a time-transgressive Last Glacial Maximum advance, with some glaciers reaching their modelled maximum extent as early as 27 ka and others as late as 21 ka.

Impact of Engine Dynamics on Torque Split Management of a Hybrid Electric Vehicle

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehran Bidarvatan ◽  
Mahdi Shahbakhti
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Energy Management ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
Hybrid Electric Vehicle ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Hybrid Electric ◽  
The Impact

Energy management strategies in a parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) greatly depend on the accuracy of internal combustion engine (ICE) data. It is a common practice to rely on static maps for required engine torque-fuel efficiency data. The engine dynamics are ignored in these static maps and it is uncertain how neglecting these dynamics can affect fuel economy of a parallel HEV. This paper presents the impact of ICE dynamics on the performance of the torque split management strategy. A parallel HEV torque split strategy is developed using a method of model predictive control. The control strategy is implemented on a HEV model with an experimentally validated, dynamic ICE model. Simulation results show that the ICE dynamics can degrade performance of the HEV control strategy during the transient periods of the vehicle operation by more than 20% for city driving conditions in a common North American drive cycle. This also leads to substantial fuel penalty which is often overlooked in conventional HEV energy management strategies.

Inferring ice rheology in Antarctic ice shelves from remotely sensed observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Millstein ◽  
Brent Minchew
Keyword(s):  
Stress Exponent ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Creep Mechanism ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Dislocation Creep ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Creep Mechanisms ◽  
Flow Law

&lt;p&gt;Glaciers and ice sheets flow as a consequence of ice rheology. At the temperatures and pressures found on Earth, several creep mechanisms allow glacier ice to flow as a non-Newtonian (shear-thinning) viscous fluid. The semi-empirical constitutive relation known as Glen&amp;#8217;s Flow Law is often used to describe ice flow and to provide a simple expression for an effective viscosity that decreases with increasing stress and deformation rate. Glen&amp;#8217;s Flow Law is a power-law relation between effective strain rate and deviatoric stress, with two parameters defining the rheology of ice: a rate factor, A, and stress exponent, n. The rate factor depends on features such as temperature and grain size, while the stress exponent is primarily representative of the creep mechanism. Neither A nor n are well constrained in natural ice, and the stress exponent is typically assumed to be n = 3 everywhere. Here, we take advantage of recent improvements in remotely sensed observations of surface velocity and ice shelf thickness to infer the values of A and n in Antarctic ice shelves. We focus on areas of ice shelves that flow in a purely extensional regime, where extensional stresses are proportional to observed ice thickness, drag at the base of the ice is negligible, and extensional strain-rates are calculated from the gradients of observed surface velocity fields. In this manner, we use independent observational data to derive spatially dependent constraints on the rate factor A and stress exponent n in Glen's Flow Law. The robust spatial variability provides insights into the creep mechanisms of ice, thereby capturing rheological properties from satellite observations. Our analysis indicates that n &amp;#8776; 4 in most fast-flowing areas in an extensional regime, contrary to the prototypical value of n = 3. This finding implies higher non-linearity in ice flow than typically prescribed, influencing calculations of mass flux and the response of ice sheets to perturbations. Additionally, This result suggests that dislocation creep is the dominant creep mechanism in extensional regimes of Antarctic ice shelves, indicative of tertiary creep. This analysis unites theoretical work and synoptic-scale observations of ice flow, providing insights into the rheology and stress-states of ice shelves in Antarctica.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Bookkeeping estimates of the net land-use change flux – a sensitivity study with the CMIP6 land-use dataset

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 763-782
Author(s):  
Kerstin Hartung ◽  
Ana Bastos ◽  
Louise Chini ◽  
Raphael Ganzenmüller ◽  
Felix Havermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Wood Harvest ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The carbon flux due to land-use and land-cover change (net LULCC flux) historically contributed to a large fraction of anthropogenic carbon emissions while at the same time being associated with large uncertainties. This study aims to compare the contribution of several sensitivities underlying the net LULCC flux by assessing their relative importance in a bookkeeping model (Bookkeeping of Land Use Emissions, BLUE) based on a LULCC dataset including uncertainty estimates (the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset). The sensitivity experiments build upon the approach of Hurtt et al. (2011) and compare the impacts of LULCC uncertainty (a high, baseline and low land-use estimate), the starting time of the bookkeeping model simulation (850, 1700 and 1850), net area transitions versus gross area transitions (shifting cultivation) and neglecting wood harvest on estimates of the net LULCC flux. Additional factorial experiments isolate the impact of uncertainty from initial conditions and transitions on the net LULCC flux. Finally, historical simulations are extended with future land-use scenarios to assess the impact of past LULCC uncertainty in future projections. Over the period 1850–2014, baseline and low LULCC scenarios produce a comparable cumulative net LULCC flux, while the high LULCC estimate initially produces a larger net LULCC flux which decreases towards the end of the period and even becomes smaller than in the baseline estimate. LULCC uncertainty leads to slightly higher sensitivity in the cumulative net LULCC flux (up to 22 %; references are the baseline simulations) compared to the starting year of a model simulation (up to 15 %). The contribution from neglecting wood harvest activities (up to 28 % cumulative net LULCC flux) is larger than that from LULCC uncertainty, and the implementation of land-cover transitions (gross or net transitions) exhibits the smallest sensitivity (up to 13 %). At the end of the historical LULCC dataset in 2014, the LULCC uncertainty retains some impact on the net LULCC flux (±0.15 PgC yr−1 at an estimate of 1.7 PgC yr−1). Of the past uncertainties in LULCC, a small impact persists in 2099, mainly due to uncertainty of harvest remaining in 2014. However, compared to the uncertainty range of the LULCC flux estimated today, the estimates in 2099 appear to be indistinguishable. These results, albeit from a single model, are important for CMIP6 as they compare the relative importance of starting year, uncertainty of LULCC, applying gross transitions and wood harvest on the net LULCC flux. For the cumulative net LULCC flux over the industrial period, the uncertainty of LULCC is as relevant as applying wood harvest and gross transitions. However, LULCC uncertainty matters less (by about a factor of 3) than the other two factors for the net LULCC flux in 2014, and historical LULCC uncertainty is negligible for estimates of future scenarios.

scholarly journals The Causes of Debris-Covered Glacier Thinning: Evidence for the Importance of Ice Dynamics From Kennicott Glacier, Alaska

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leif S. Anderson ◽  
William H. Armstrong ◽  
Robert S. Anderson ◽  
Dirk Scherler ◽  
Eric Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Flow Direction ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Thickness Change ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Compressive Flow ◽  
Wide Range

The cause of debris-covered glacier thinning remains controversial. One hypothesis asserts that melt hotspots (ice cliffs, ponds, or thin debris) increase thinning, while the other posits that declining ice flow leads to dynamic thinning under thick debris. Alaska’s Kennicott Glacier is ideal for testing these hypotheses, as ice cliffs within the debris-covered tongue are abundant and surface velocities decline rapidly downglacier. To explore the cause of patterns in melt hotspots, ice flow, and thinning, we consider their evolution over several decades. We compile a wide range of ice dynamical and mass balance datasets which we cross-correlate and analyze in a step-by-step fashion. We show that an undulating bed that deepens upglacier controls ice flow in the lower 8.5 km of Kennicott Glacier. The imposed velocity pattern strongly affects debris thickness, which in turn leads to annual melt rates that decline towards the terminus. Ice cliff abundance correlates highly with the rate of surface compression, while pond occurrence is strongly negatively correlated with driving stress. A new positive feedback is identified between ice cliffs, streams and surface topography that leads to chaotic topography. As the glacier thinned between 1991 and 2015, surface melt in the study area decreased, despite generally rising air temperatures. Four additional feedbacks relating glacier thinning to melt changes are evident: the debris feedback (negative), the ice cliff feedback (negative), the pond feedback (positive), and the relief feedback (positive). The debris and ice cliff feedbacks, which are tied to the change in surface velocity in time, likely reduced melt rates in time. We show this using a new method to invert for debris thickness change and englacial debris content (∼0.017% by volume) while also revealing that declining speeds and compressive flow led to debris thickening. The expansion of debris on the glacier surface follows changes in flow direction. Ultimately, glacier thinning upvalley from the continuously debris-covered portion of Kennicott Glacier, caused by mass balance changes, led to the reduction of flow into the study area. This caused ice emergence rates to decline rapidly leading to the occurrence of maximum, glacier-wide thinning under thick, insulating debris.

scholarly journals Net land-use change carbon flux estimates and sensitivities – An assessment with a bookkeeping model based on CMIP6 forcing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerstin Hartung ◽  
Ana Bastos ◽  
Louise Chini ◽  
Raphael Ganzenmüller ◽  
Felix Havermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Carbon Flux ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Wood Harvest ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The carbon flux due to land-use and land-cover change (net LULCC flux) historically contributed to a large fraction of anthropogenic carbon emissions while at the same time being associated with large uncertainties. This study aims to compare the contribution of several sensitivities underlying the net LULCC flux by assessing their relative importance in a bookkeeping model (BLUE) based on a LULCC dataset including uncertainty estimates (the LUH2 dataset). The sensitivity experiments build upon the approach of Hurtt et al. (2011) and compare the impacts of LULCC uncertainty (a high, baseline and low land- use estimate), the starting time of the bookkeeping model simulation (850, 1700 and 1850), net area transitions versus gross area transitions (shifting cultivation) and neglecting wood harvest on estimates of the net LULCC flux. Additional factorial experiments isolate the impact of uncertainty from initial conditions and transitions on the net LULCC flux. Finally, historical simulations are extended with future land-use scenarios to assess the impact of past LULCC uncertainty in future projections. Over the period 1850–2014, baseline and low LULCC scenarios produce a comparable cumulative net LULCC flux while the high LULCC estimate initially produces a larger net LULCC flux which decreases towards the end of the period and even becomes smaller than in the baseline estimate. LULCC uncertainty leads to slightly higher sensitivity in the cumulative net LULCC flux (up to 22 %, reference are the baseline simulations) compared to the starting year of a model simulation (up to 15 %). The contribution from neglecting wood harvest activities (up to 28 % cumulative net LULCC flux) is larger than from LULCC uncertainty and the implementation of land-cover transitions (gross or net transitions) exhibits the smallest sensitivity (up to 13 %). At the end of the historical LULCC dataset in 2014, the LULCC uncertainty retains some impact on the net LULCC flux (±0.15 PgC yr−1 at an estimate of 1.7 PgC yr−1). Of the past uncertainties in LULCC, a small impact persists in 2099, mainly due to uncertainty of harvest remaining in 2014. However, compared to the uncertainty range of the LULCC flux estimated today, the estimates in 2099 appear to be indistinguishable. These results, albeit from a single model, are important for CMIP6 as they compare the relative importance of starting year, uncertainty of LULCC, applying gross transitions and wood harvest on the net LULCC flux. For the cumulative net LULCC flux over the industrial period the uncertainty of LULCC is as relevant as applying wood harvest and gross transitions. However, LULCC uncertainty matters less (by about a factor three) than the other two factors for the net LULCC flux in 2014 and historical LULCC uncertainty is negligible for estimates of future scenarios.

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