scholarly journals Impact of Trade Openness on Industrialization in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Adebayo Mohammed Ojuolape ◽  
Deborah Boluwatife Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
The State ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Industrial Competitiveness ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Analytical Result

The state of Nigeria as regards the effect of trade openness on industrialization is a major concern. This research helps to evaluate this effect. The variables show a long-run relationship, using Bound Cointegration test. The final analytical result was gotten using ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) Co-integration and Long-run form. The results show that trade openness is not significant, and it is negatively related to industrialization. The implication of this is that it hinders industrialization in Nigeria. This is due to excess importation and infrastructure deficit, alongside other factors. The study recommended that existing policies should not be waved aside; there should be engagement in international industrial competitiveness, and stabilization of exchange rate.

scholarly journals Consequences of Capital formation, Trade Liberalization on the Economic Growth: Pakistan’s Experience

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Nadia Bukhari ◽  
Anjum Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Adf Test

This study considers the long run relationship between the liberalization of trade, capital formation and the economic growth of Pakistan by using the time series data from 1975-2013. The main aim of this study is to examine that how much liberalization of trade and capital formation affects the economic growth of Pakistan in long run. The approach that has been used for empirical analysis is Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Under the ADF test capital formation (CF) is stationary at its first level but the trade openness (TO) and GDP is stationary at its first difference. Moreover, the granger casualty test is evident that there become a casual relationship between the trade openness and GDP. The result of this study shows that both the trade openness and the capital formation determined the economic growth in long run and they both have statistically significant effect on the GDP. Furthermore it has has been depicted from the study that the trade has a vital role to influence the economic growth.

scholarly journals Pricing of Agricultural Capital Input in Pakistan: An Analysis of Bound Testing Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-110
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Hira Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Input ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Econometric Technique

Purpose: This study aims to raise the trouble of adjustment the price of capital input in Pakistan. The data that is take to estimate the analysis is time series which span over from 1974 to 2014. Yield, gross domestic product, exchange rate, land, price of capital, agriculture employment, agriculture imports and exports are variables that use in this study. Econometric technique of auto-regressive distributed lag (ardl) to co-integration approach are applied apply to estimate the long run and short run relationship among variables. Conclusion of this study shows that yield and price of capital are negative and insignificant both in short and long run.

Does Nominal Devaluation Improve Income Distribution? Evidence from Bangladesh

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-77
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact

The article aims to investigate the impact of nominal devaluation on income distribution in Bangladesh both in short and long runs. In doing so, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing has been employed for cointegration, and Error Correction Model (ECM) has been used for short-run dynamics. The empirical psychology has confirmed the existence of long-run relationship between the variables. Furthermore our estimated results reveal that nominal devaluation tends to decrease income inequality. Though economic growth appears to improve income distribution, non-linear link between both the variables, however, depicts Kuznets’ inverted-U curve (1955). Financial development causes further deterioration in income distribution. Trade openness contributes to income inequality as discussed in Leontief Paradox.

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility On Non-Traditional Exports In Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2017) ◽  
pp. 80-103
Author(s):  
Camara Kwasi Obeng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The government of Ghana has implemented a number of policies to strengthen the production and export of non-traditional products as a way of diversifying exports in Ghana with very little success. Foremost among these policies is the liberalization of exchange rate. Meanwhile, the exchange rate has been very volatile. The study, therefore, examines the effects of exchange rate volatility on non-traditional exports in Ghana.This study employed Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration estimation technique for the investigation. The results indicate that exchange rate volatility negatively impacts Ghana’s non-traditional exports. Also, the effect is greater in the long- run than it is in the short-run. Other results also show that world income, growth rate of the economy and Treasury bill rate promote non-traditional exports, but real effective exchange rate does not. The value of the paper lies in the discussion of the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate volatility on non-traditional exports in the Ghanaian context.

scholarly journals The Short and Long Run Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 45-65
Author(s):  
Oludayo Elijah Adekunle
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment Inflow ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

What determines foreign direct investment inflows has been a subject of controversies among scholars. As a result of the highlighted gap discussed in this study, the short and long run determinants of foreign direct investment and their effects on foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria was investigated from 1986 to 2018. Data were analyzed with Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philip Perron unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Pairwise Granger Causality techniques. Evidence of long run dynamic equilibrium relationship was established between foreign direct investment and its determinants. The short and long run coefficients revealed that government capital expenditure and inflation impede the inflow of foreign direct investment both in the short and long run while exchange rate serve as bane to foreign direct investment in the long run. However, gross domestic product and trade openness were found to stimulate the inflow of foreign direct investment in the short and long run. The Pairwise causality result revealed that government capital expenditure, exchange rate and trade openness had independent causality with foreign direct investment while gross domestic product and inflation rate had unidirectional causality with foreign direct investment. Thus, government should allocate more funds for the provision of enabling and investment enhancing environment to promote foreign direct investment inflow. The study added value to previous studies by estimating the short and long run determinants of foreign direct investment using more dynamic and robust technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lag developed by Peseran and Shin (1999). JEL Codes: C32, F21.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Misalignment and Capital Flight from Botswana: A Cointegration Approach with Risk Thresholds

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 101
Author(s):  
Mpho Bosupeng ◽  
Janet Dzator ◽  
Andrew Nadolny
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate misalignment on outward capital flight in Botswana over the period 1980–2015. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach to Granger causality. Botswana’s currency misalignment was caused by current account imbalances. The most important determinant of capital flight from Botswana is trade openness, which indicates that exportable commodities are misinvoiced leading to net capital outflows. Our main findings show that in the long-run, when the currency is overvalued, the volume of capital flight through trade misinvoicing declines and increasing foreign reserves does not reduce outward capital flight. However, when the currency is undervalued, the volume of capital flight through trade misinvoicing increases and foreign reserves reduce outward capital flight. Investors respond more to prospects of devaluation than to inflation. Botswana should tolerate overvaluation of the pula of only up to 5%. When the pula is overvalued beyond 5%, capital flight increases substantially. The government has to formulate trade regulations and monitor imported and exported commodities. Botswana should also implement capital controls to limit capital smuggling and maintain monetary autonomy.

scholarly journals The Real Exchange Rate-Foreign Direct Investment Controversy in South Africa: An Application of ARDL Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 207
Author(s):  
Ahmed Mohamed Dahir ◽  
Fuaziah Mahat ◽  
A. N. Bany-Ariffin ◽  
Nazrul Hisyam Ab Razak
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Market Size ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

This paper examines the relationship between real exchange rate and foreign direct investment. We apply autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method to estimate short and long-run relationships between the series in South Africa over the period of 1987-2016. The results reveal long-run cointegration relationships among variables are confirmed, implying real exchange rate, domestic market size stimulate the foreign direct investment in the long run. Furthermore, there is significant Granger unidirectional causality foreign direct investment to real exchange rate in short and long run and from market size to trade openness in a short run. This finding further suggests that the exchange rate instability are likely to be substantially harmful to a positive effect of FDI and should be avoided in South Africa.

scholarly journals Does Trade Liberalization Affect Energy Saving in Nigeria?

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla
Keyword(s):  
Energy Use ◽  
Energy Intensity ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Dynamic Ols ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive

The study empirically examines the role of trade openness and other determinants in explaining the intensity of energy use in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2015. The paper uses an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in interpreting both long-run energy intensity as a co integrating relation, and its short-run dynamics. The robustness of ARDL results is verified using Dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation technique. The results provide evidence of a Cointegration relation between energy intensity and its determinants. The results provide evidence that trade only significantly reduces energy intensity in the short run. Meanwhile, the results also show that income growth and industry value added have significant reducing effects on energy intensity. The results also raise some important policy issues, particularly on the inflows of foreign aid.

scholarly journals Effects of Bank Credits on the Manufacturing Sector Output in Nigeria (1981-2018)

2020 ◽  
pp. 74-85
Author(s):  
Okere Peter.A ◽  
Okere, Cletus O ◽  
Nwaneto Ugonma
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Bound Test

This study investigated the effects of bank credits on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria from 1981-2018. The data for this study were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. The study adopted the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound cointegration test approach and error correction. In the bound test following the ARDL, it investigated that the variables of interest put in the model are bound together in the long-run and error correction term displayed a negative and statistically significant. The negative value shows that there exists an modification speed from short-run disequilibrium towards the long-run balance. Given the error correction instrument outcome, the study revealed that bank credits exhibited a optimistic and significant relationship with the presentation of manufacturing sector in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that policies geared towards deepening the financial sector and enhancing the healthy and soundness of banks should be vigorously pursued. Also the Central Bank of Nigeria should as a matter of urgency review downwards the lending interest rate in view of this COVID-19 pandemic threatening the whole world.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

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